Divisional Round: Bills at Chiefs Betting Preview

Three things you should know before betting on Bills-Chiefs:

1. Since the start of last season, the Bills are 13-4 against the spread when coming off back-to-back straight-up victories, and they’re 10-3 against the spread in that same timeframe in games with a line of between +3 and -3. Buffalo is 9-3 both straight-up and against the spread when coming off a game in which the team scored 35 or more points under current head coach Sean McDermott.

2. The Chiefs started November 2020 with a 35-9 win as a 19.5-point home favorite against the Jets. That improved Kansas City’s record to 7-1 straight-up and 6-2 against the spread over the first half of the 2020 regular season. Since then, the Chiefs have gone 22-7 straight-up but just 11-18 against the spread, which includes a 7-12 against-the-spread mark vs. AFC opponents over that span.

3. Each of the past six Chiefs games has gone Over the total, with Kansas City scoring an average of 36.5 points while allowing an average of 21 points over the half-dozen games. All but three of the 13 games the Chiefs have played against AFC opponents since the start of the 2021 regular season have gone Over the total. Meanwhile, all six road games the Bills have played with a closing total higher than 49 since the start of the 2020 season have gone Over the total, with an average of 59.7 total points scored over those half-dozen games. The Over is 8-1 in Buffalo road games in that same timeframe when the Bills are coming off a double-digit victory.

PICKS: Bills +2 & Over 53.5