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Bills at Chiefs Betting Preview

Published on 10/13/2021
By Scott Gramling
Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen
Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is a serious MVP candidate this season.
Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday 10/10, 8:20 p.m. ET

Three things you need to know before betting on Bills-Chiefs:

1. There’s no denying that Kansas City boasts one of the NFL’s most explosive and productive offenses: Only the Cardinals have scored more points and only the Cardinals and Raiders have gained more yards than the Chiefs through the 2021 season’s first four weeks. Defensively, however, Kansas City is one of only two NFL teams along with Atlanta that’s allowing an average of more than 31 points per game, and the Chiefs are one of two teams along with the Seahawks that’s allowing an average of more than 430 total yards per game. In games since the start of the 2017 season in which the line is between +3 and -3, NFL teams that are allowing an average of at least 360 total yards per game are 5-26-2 against the spread when coming off back-to-back games of gaining 400 or more total yards of offense.

2. With this past Sunday’s 40-0 win over the Texans coming two weeks after their 35-0 shutout of the Dolphins in Week 2, the Bills became just the third team since 1990 to have two shutouts over their first four games. (The other two teams to do it—Washington in 1991 and Baltimore in 2000—both went on to win the Super Bowl.) Buffalo has outscored its 2021 opponents by 90 points, by far the NFL’s top point differential in the NFL. (The Cardinals are second at plus-55 and no other team is even at plus-35.) Since the start of last season, the Bills are 10-3 against the spread when coming off back-to-back straight-up victories, and they’re 8-2 against the spread in that same timeframe in games with a line of between +3 and -3. Buffalo is 8-1 both straight-up and against the spread when coming off a game in which the team scored 35 or more points under current head coach Sean McDermott.

3. The Chiefs started last November with a 35-9 victory as a 19.5-point home favorite against the Jets to improve their record to 7-1 straight-up and 6-2 against the spread over the first half of the 2020 regular season. Kansas City has gone 11-4 since then: The lone defeats prior to the back-to-back losses in the team’s two-game losing streak to end September—a 36-35 loss as a 3.5-point road favorite at Baltimore in Week 2 and a 30-24 home loss to the Chargers as a 7-point home favorite in Week 3—were 1) in the 2020 regular-season finale when the team rested most of its starters against the Chargers and 2) in Super Bowl LV when the Chiefs were hammered by the Buccaneers. Kansas City, however, is just 3-12 against the spread over that span: A 38-24 win over Buffalo in the AFC Championship Game and this past Sunday’s 42-30 win in Philadelphia are the only ones of the 15 games that the Chiefs have won by more than 6 points.

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