AFC Championship Game: Bengals at Chiefs Betting Preview

Three things you should know before betting on Bengals-Chiefs:

1. There’s no denying that Kansas City boasts one of the NFL’s most potent offenses—the Chiefs were one of only three teams along with the Cowboys and Buccaneers to gain an average of 390 total yards per game during the 2021 regular season. After racking up 390 total yards in a victory at Denver in the regular-season finale, Kansas City gained 478 in a 42-21 home blowout of Pittsburgh and then 552 in this past Sunday’s 42-36 overtime victory over Buffalo. Since the start of the 2019 season, NFL favorites that are gaining an average of at least 385 total yards per game are 2-23 against the spread when coming off a three-game stretch of gaining an average of 450 or more total yards per game.

2. Cincinnati has gone 4-1 straight-up and 5-0 against the spread as a road underdog of more than 2 points since the start of the 2021 regular season, with the lone straight-up loss among the five having been a 21-16 defeat as a 6.5-point road underdog at Cleveland when the Bengals rested quarterback Joe Burrow and several other key players in the season finale after already clinching the AFC North crown. Cincinnati was the only NFL team to be penalized for an average of fewer than 37 yards per game during the 2021 regular season—Kansas City is 0-6 against the spread under head coach Andy Reid past the midway point of a season when facing an opponent that averages 42 or fewer penalty yards per game.

3. Each of the past seven Chiefs games has gone Over the total, with Kansas City scoring an average of 37.3 points while allowing an average of 23.1 points over the seven games. All but three of the 14 games the Chiefs have played against AFC opponents since the start of the 2021 regular season have gone Over the total. The first postseason start of Patrick Mahomes’ career was a 31-13 victory over the Colts in a January 2019 game that closed with a total of 55. In the seven January playoff games Mahomes has started since then, the only one that went Under the total was a 22-17 home win against Cleveland last year when Mahomes suffered a game-ending concussion midway through the third quarter. In the other half-dozen games, Kansas City has scored an average of 39.8 points while allowing an average of 28.8 points per game.

THE PICKS: Cincinnati +7.5 AND Over 54