NASCAR: Breaking Down the Favorites at Dover

By Jack Fitzpatrick
NASCAR Cup Series drivers Erik Jones (43), Bubba Wallace (23) and Kyle Larson (5) during the GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway.
© Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

*This article was written Friday, April 29 and odds mentioned throughout are subject to change. For all the latest odds check out DRF Sportsbook.

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Dover, Delaware as the drivers look to conquer the ‘Monster Mile.’ The DuraMax Drydene 400 will be aired on FS1 on Sunday, May 1 at 3 PM ET. 

Dover is a mile long concrete oval with 24 degrees of banking in the turn and nine degrees on the straights. NASCAR started racing at the Monster Mile in 1969 and up until the 2020 season had two races per year there. This track is a notoriously difficult track on the drivers and the car’s equipment and has become a fan favorite as it produces some fantastic races. 

Enough about the track itself though, let’s dive into the favorites’ chances at winning this ‘Monster Mile.’ 

Favorites to win: 

Kyle Larson +500

Larson has found immediate success after changing teams after the 2020 season. The move from Chip Ganassi Racing to Hendrick Motorsports ignited his career and he has racked up 11 wins since the start of 2021 and 24 Top Five finishes. Larson finishes in the Top Five in 52 percent of his races and wins a wildly impressive 24 percent of races since the switch to the No. 5 car with Hendrick. 

He has raced at Dover just once since getting in the 5 car, and he managed to finish second (was part of a six race run where he finished either second or first.) In his career he averages a finish of seventh at the track and his lowest finish was 25th. 

Larson is good at this track and one of the best drivers in NASCAR at the moment. Other props for him include +150 to finish Top 3, -109 to finish Top 5 and -315 to finish Top 10. 

Chase Elliott +850

Chase Elliott has yet to win a race this year and has finished Top 5 just once. I think Elliott here is a stay away. He has finished in the Top 10 the last three races but that is tied for the longest streak of his career. Elliott is due for a poor performance. Regardless of the prop for Chase Elliott I would just stay away from him. Maybe sprinkle a little on Elliott to NOT finish in the Top 10. 

William Byron +900

William Byron has had minimal success at Dover in his career. His best finish at the ‘Monster Mile’ is 4th which he has done twice. His last fice races he has a win and an average finish of 9.8. With a solid resume at the monster mile I wouldn’t bet Byron to win but based off his recent stretch of solid finishes taking him to finish in the Top 10 at -182 may be solid value. 

Alex Bowman +1000

Alex Bowman is the defending Dover champion and he is in a car that tends to have success at Dover. Hendrick cars seem to dominate the mile long concrete oval year in and year out. In his career at Hendrick, which started in the No. 88 in 2018, Bowman has four top 5 finishes. Look at Bowman to finish in the Top 5 at +164. 

Martin Truex, Jr. +1000

A three time winner at the track, Truex Jr. would love to notch his first win of 2022 and his first win since the second Richmond race in 2021. The season has gotten off to an okay start, nothcing five top 10s and two top 5s but no wins, and 3 races out of the top 15 entirely. He currently is sitting at 8th in the standings. If there was a value pick here to win, Truex Jr. fits that bill. In 2020 he finished second in both Dover races and faded a bit in 2021 with a 19th place finish. 

Truex Jr. has had success at this track and at +1000, could be a fun play. 

Other Props for the race

Will the Car Number of the Race Winner be…

  • Even -124
  • Odd -104

Car Number of Race Winner

  • Over 9.5 -190
  • Under 9.5 +143
  • Over 12.4 -109
  • Under 12.5 -120
  • Over 18.5 +145
  • Under 18.5 -195

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