John Deere Classic Betting Preview
After an exciting week at The Travelers, the PGA Tour makes its annual stop at TPC Deere Run, for the John Deere Classic. Last year’s tournament was won by Lucas Glover (+5000) and the 2019 tournament was won by Dylan Frittelli (+8000), who’s also in this year’s field. Webb Simpson tops the field this year and is the favorite at +1100. It’s not the deepest field but there’s clearly some value, given that the favored has those odds. It’s also worth noting that there’s only been two repeat winners of this tournament, Jordan Spieth and Steve Stricker. Since 2010, there have only been three winners that shot under -19 or worse, meaning that the winner usually goes pretty low in this tournament. Michael Kim holds the record for most strokes under par at 27 under, in 2018. While it may not be the highest profile tournament, there’s still plenty of value from a betting standpoint.
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The Safe Bets
Second betting choice, Adam Hadwin (+1600), is a pretty safe play, coming off a tie for 7th in the U.S. Open. Hadwin returns to TPC Deere Run for the first time since 2016, where he finished -14 under and in 8th place. The year before, Hadwin shot -12 and finished 18th. Hadwin also shot a 65 in the final round in 2015 and a 64 in the final round in 2016. If he can hang around and make a run on Sunday, he has a serious chance to win. Combine his familiarity with the course and his recent play and Hadwin is a safe play for this week.
Brendon Todd (+2800) is another safe play with some value. Prior to missing the cut last week, Todd finished tied for 13th at the Canadian Open and 3rd at the Charles Schwab. Todd struggled at TPC Deere Run, prior to 2019, missing the cut six times in a row. In that 2019 tournament, Todd shot -13 and finished 18th. It’s certainly not out of the question for Todd to be near the top of the leaderboard, as he looks to keep his good play up.
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The Longshots
It was a rough start for J.T. Poston (+3300) this season, missing the cut in the first six tournaments he played in. However, he’s worth taking a flyer on this week because of his tie for second last week at The Travelers. Poston also has two other top 10 finishes and has a real chance to contend this week.
Long driver Cameron Champ (+5500) has good value this week. He finished 11th in last year’s tournament, following three rounds in the 60s. Champ has missed the cut the last four tournaments he’s played in but has a pattern of work that could give him a chance this week. Earlier this year, Champ missed two cuts in a row and followed it up with a tie for 10th at The Masters and tie for 6th at the Mexican Open.
Going deep into the field, Zach Johnson (+9000) has more than a serious chance to win. Johnson has played this tournament 19 times and made the cut 16 times. That includes 10 top 25 finishes, seven top 10 finishes, two thirds, three seconds, and won the tournament in 2013. Clearly, Johnson knows the course well and has had success here. Johnson has struggled this year, with his best finish being a tie for 14th at the American Express in January.
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The Picks:
- Adam Hadwin winner (+1600)
- Zach Johnson winner (+9000)
- Brendon Todd top 5 (+600)
- J.T. Poston top 10 (+335)
- Cameron Champ top 10 (+450)
