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3M Open Betting Preview

By Mike Smith
Hideki Matsuyama acknowledges the crowd after a putt on the 15th green during the final round of the U.S. Open golf tournament.
© Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

After a thrilling Open Championship, where Cam Smith took home the Claret Jug, the PGA Tour resumes in the Twin Cities, with the 3M Open. The tournament will be held at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota, just north of Minneapolis. While the field isn’t the strongest, there is plenty of value and last year’s winner, Cameron Champ (+5000) is in the field. The favorite is Tony Finau, as he sits at +1200.

Other big names in the field include; Sungjae Im (+1400) Hideki Matsuyama (+1600), Jason Day (+4500), and Rickie Fowler (+5000). Of those big names, some had some success at TPC Twin Cities, as Finau finished 3rd in 2020, Matsuyama finished 7th in 2019, and Im finished 15th last year. 

The Safe Plays

Finau has two second place finishes this year and has been playing better of late, including a 66 on the final day of the Open Championship. However, he’s infamous for his inability to win tournaments. Since turning pro in 2007, Finau has just two wins on tour. He’ll most likely contend on Sunday, making a top 10 finish more likely than a win. Im has better value as a win pick, as he has six top 10 finishes this year, mostly coming at these smaller tournaments. He hasn’t played great in his last three tournaments but two of those were majors. 

A simple and safe pick is Matsuyama to win. He’s the most accomplished golfer in the field and arguably the best. Aside from his 4th place finish at the U.S. Open, Matsuyama hasn’t played great but he shouldn’t need his best to contend this week. Matsuyama is another golfer that takes advantage of these weaker fields, with his two wins this season coming at the ZOZO Championship and Sony Open.

J.T. Poston (+3300) has been a top 10 machine and won the John Deere Classic three weeks ago. Poston has four top 10 finishes and six top 25 finishes. Despite struggling at the beginning of the year, Poston has started to turn it around. Despite missing the cut last week, Poston is still a great pick because every time he’s missed the cut this year, he’s rebounded to play well the following week. Poston to contend on Sunday is a safe play but he’s also a very intriguing win pick.

The Longshots

Poston to win is a great longshot play but there’s also some others. Chez Reavie (+3500) took home the Barracuda Championship last week, as the alternate to the Open Championship. He hasn’t played great this season but he’s another that can contend in these smaller tournaments. 

Rickie Fowler has fallen off in recent years but if he brings his best game, he’s arguably the best golfer in the field. In years past, Fowler has been in contention in majors but hasn’t found that success of late. Dropping down into these smaller tournaments might be a great idea for Fowler to find his game again. Fowler’s best finish this season was a 3rd at the CJ Cup but he played better than his 47th finish at the Scottish Open two weeks ago. 

The Picks:

  • Hideki Matsuyama winner (+1600)
  • J.T. Poston winner (+3300)
  • Sungjae Im top 5 (+335)
  • Rickie Fowler top 5 (+1100)
  • Chez Reavie top 10 (+400)

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