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World Series Betting Preview: Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros

Published on 10/24/2021
By Scott Gramling
Atlanta Braves Ozzie Albies
Atlanta needs big things from Ozzie Albies in the World Series.
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros
Best-of-seven Major League Baseball World Series starts in Houston on Tuesday, 10/26, at 8:09 p.m. ET

Series Odds:
Atlanta +120
Houston -140

Three things you should know before betting the 2021 World Series:

1. The American League champion Astros have home-field advantage over the National League champion Braves, who advanced to the World Series after eliminating the Milwaukee Brewers in four games in one of the best-of-five NL Divisional Series, then the Los Angeles Dodgers in six games in the best-of-seven NL Championship Series. The Astros beat the White Sox in four games in one of the AL Divisional Series then the Red Sox in six games in the AL Championship Series. While Houston led the majors in batting average (.267) and runs scored (5.3 per game) during the regular season, the Astros also allowed the sixth-fewest runs per game in 2021 at 4.06. During the 2021 regular season, Atlanta went 3-12 when facing an American League opponent allowing an average of fewer than 4.4 runs per game. The Braves were outscored by an average margin of 1.5 runs per game over those 15 games.

2. Before Houston’s 5-0 shutout of the Boston Red Sox in the final game of the AL Championship Series, each of the Astros’ previous eight postseason games had gone Over the total. That included three games started by Houston’s probable World Series Game 1 starter Framber Valdez: a 9-4 home win over the Chicago White Sox in Game 2 of the AL Divisional Series, a 5-4 home victory over the Red Sox in the AL Championship Series’ Game 1, which closed with a total of 8.5, and a 9-1 win in Boston’s Fenway Park in Game 5 of the ALCS, which closed with a total of 9.5. Since the start of the 2021 regular season, 12 of the 16 games Valdez has started against an opponent with a winning record have gone Over the total, with an average of 10.1 total runs having been scored over those 16 games.

3. Relief pitching has been one of the strengths of an Atlanta team with a bullpen that compiled a 3.97 ERA and 1.32 WHIP during the 2021 regular season, then a 3.56 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 10 playoff games leading up to the World Series. Since Dusty Baker took over as Houston’s manager prior to the start of the 2020 season, Houston has gone 40-16 at home when facing an opponent with a bullpen WHIP of 1.35 or better, with the Astros having scored an average of 5.6 runs while allowing an average of 3.8 runs over those 56 games.

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