UNC vs. Duke Final Four Betting Preview
- 04/02 8:49 PM ETSpreadMLScore703UNC(5)15417081704DUK(13)-4.5-20077
We’ll receive arguably the biggest college basketball game of all-time when Tobacco Road rivals Duke Blue Devils and the North Carolina Tar Heels face off in the Final Four. The winner of this matchup will punch their ticket to the National Championship and face the winner of the Kansas/Villanova matchup.
Recent Trends
Duke comes into this one winners of four of their last five, with their lone defeat coming in the conference championship to Virginia Tech. The Blue Devils have looked sharp through the first four tournament games surviving, advancing, and covering against CSU Fullerton, longtime rival Michigan State and rugged schools Texas Tech and Arkansas. Duke is 5-2 ATS over their previous seven.
UNC is also 4-1 straight up over their last five games, with a loss to eventual ACC-tournament champions Virginia Tech also being their lone blemish. North Carolina has covered in all four wins here at the tournament, and they’ve won ten of their last eleven games overall.
Key Injuries
There are no major injuries impacting this game between Duke and UNC.
Why Duke can cover
There is so much more on the table then a trip to the National Championship here. Revenge is a dish best served, and Mike Krzyzewski should have this team ready to avenge the most embarrassing loss in school history. Coach K’’s illustrious career will be on the line once again and there’s no way they don’t bring their best for this one.
Duke posted a 32-6 record this season, while a 16-4 in ACC play and being named conference champions. The Blue Devils are scoring a massive 80.3 points per game while shooting 49.2% from the floor, both good for 6th and 5th in the country respectively. Duke also allows just 67.2 points per game this season.
Paolo Banchero has been efficient and consistent this March, scoring 17 or more while shooting 65% in seven out of eight games this month. Banchero, like Krzyzewski, could be entering his last game as a Blue Devil and his elevated play is something to trust right now. He’s leading Duke in both scoring (17.1) and rebounding (7.9) this season.
Mark Williams anchors the middle after blossoming in his sophomore season. The 2022 ACC Defensive Player of the Year has blocked 16 shots and avoided foul trouble in all four tournament victories. Sophomore guard Jeremy Roach has become an x-factor down the stretch this season, while Wendell Moore is one of the most versatile players in the country, posting strong averages of 13.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg, and a team-leading 4.6 apg.
Why UNC can cover
As if ruining Duke’s home finale, and ending St. Peter’s Cinderella run wasn’t enough, UNC now finds themselves in the ultimate spoiler position. The Tar Heels have a chance to return to the National championship and they have a chance to end it all for Duke. They come in with less pressure, a generous +4.5 margin, and all of the motivation in the world. It’s the ultimate low risk/high reward situation, and this talented group should thrive under the circumstances.
Hubert Davis’ team posted a 27-9 record this season, while going 15-2 in ACC play. The Tar Heels average 78.3 points per game while shooting 45.3%, and allowing 71.7 points per game.
Sophomore guards Caleb Love and RJ Davis have taken a big second-year leap in the Tar Heel backcourt, with the former averaging a strong 15.4 points per game. Both guards have delivered signature performances during this run, with Davis scoring a season-high 30 points in the victory over Baylor, and Love coming through with heroics and a 30-point performance of his own against UCLA.
Armando Bacot enjoyed an ACC POY-caliber season, and the 6’10 big has emerged as a walking double-double threat this season. Bacot posted a monstrous 20-point, 22-rebound line in the win over St. Peter’s, and he’s played well against Duke historically. OU transfer Brady Manek compliments Bacot well in the frontcourt, and he’s hit three or more treys in six of his last seven games.
