Midweek College Basketball Betting Guide
College football is over after the thrilling National Championship, which means we finally can devote all of our betting attention to the greatest sport ever created. College Basketball.
Now that we are in the new year, each matchup gets better and the conference season is in full swing. It's time to start diving into the world of college basketball and hopefully make some money!
Two Tuesday games you should keep an eye on
Iowa State (+13) vs. Kansas 8 PM ET tip
No. 15 Iowa State travels to No. 9 Kansas as a 13-point road underdog, and I believe the Cyclones can cover that number with relative ease.
After starting the season 12-0 with wins over Iowa, Xavier and Memphis the Cyclones have cooled off, going 1-2 over their last three. However it has been a gauntlet of a stretch facing the best team in the country in Baylor, and only losing by 5 and a week later facing a top 35 KenPom team in Oklahoma on the road. Kansas comes into this matchup dropping its last game on the road vs. Texas Teach by 8 and its only other loss was a surprise one point upset to Dayton.
So far this season the Cyclones are 5-1 against the spread as underdogs and over the last three seasons are 4-4 ATS when road underdogs by 12.5+. The Cyclones tend to play up to their opponent the last two seasons, going 8-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning percentage of 80%+.
I believe this is a spot where Iowa State is slightly undervalued since they are limping in and Kansas has only lost one game since November 27.
This is a game where Iowa State’s lock down defense, which has been tested multiple times against top tier competition, can have some success against a Kansas offense.
The pick: I don’t think Iowa State can pull the upset, so I’ll just sit with +13.
Auburn vs. Alabama (-3) 9 PM ET tip
Alabama is now a basketball school. Nick Saban who? It is all about Nate Oats.
The Crimson Tide are prone to losing games they shouldn’t but don't be scared to bet them! Coming off of a six point loss on the road to Missouri this is a prime bounce back spot for Alabama where I think they may be slightly undervalued despite 76% of the bets being on them to cover.
It has a top 10 offense according to KenPom and a top 60 defense with offensive threats across their lineup. Auburn’s defense, which is a top 10 unit, will be tested but the real sticking point is how will the offense respond on the road in a hostile environment.
This season Alabama has scored over 73 in each home game except for one and Auburn has only allowed 73 or more twice this season, once in a double overtime loss on Nov. 24 and in their last game, a win at home vs. Florida where it won by 12 still.
I could go on about this matchup because it is a fun one but I’ll leave it with a few betting angles that jumped out to me.
- Nate Oats is 15-5 ATS vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 12+
- Bruce Pearl is 10-20 ATS vs. teams averaging 77+ points per game
The pick: Alabama to win and cover
Two Wednesday dogs that have some value
Villanova vs. Xavier (+1)*
Xavier and Villanova just played each other on Dec. 21 where Villanova came out with a 71-58 home win.
Fast forward a few weeks and they are playing again, this time on Xavier’s home court in Cincinnati. The Musketeers are quietly putting together a solid 12-2 season and are 2-1 in Big East play. They have a top 20 offense and top 36 defense according to KenPom and an experienced and reliable team.
Villanova is the best team they have faced all season but after just playing them two games ago paired with Villanova’s slow tempo and spotty at times shooting, Xavier has a real chance to pull the upset as a home dog.
The pick: Xavier as long as they are plus money
Utah St. (+4) - Colorado State*
I need to preface this one with, I don’t love Utah State in this spot. I like the value and I think it provides a nice spot to get some plus money on an experienced and good Mountain West team, but Colorado State at home in Fort Collins is a hard place to play and win. With that being said let’s get into how Utah State can win.
Bean is one of the best all around players in the country. And if he isn’t firing on all cylinders, they have Brandon Horvath and Steven Ashworth, two lethal three point shooters, ready to step up.
Utah State is a great shooting team that gets 34.2% of its points from behind the arc. They are one of, if not the best, shooting teams in the country and tend to score a fair amount of points. (Let’s throw out the 49-47 loss to Air Force.) Coming off of an overtime win at New Mexico four days ago it may be difficult for Utah State to get back up and ready for this one, but scared money don’t make money!
But really, I think an experienced team that shoots the three well, and all other shots really, and has an above average defense. The Aggies have a good shot to go into Fort Collins and pull off the win, or at least cover.
The pick: I suggest Utah State spread, but I am going to ride that ML for some fun!
*lines aren’t posted for Wednesday, lines taken from KenPom
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