Michigan State vs. Illinois Betting Preview
Tonight the Big 10 has a featured matchup between two top 25 teams. No. 10 Michigan State travels to Champaign, IL to take on No. 24 Illinois. The Fighting Illini are down to just 4.5 point favorites after opening as 5.5 point favorites with the status of Kofi Cockburn up in the air.
The public has flocked to Michigan State, over 97% of the bets are on the Spartans to cover.
With a quick glance it appears that the Spartans are the better team in this matchup. They have the better record and have won 10 of their last 11 games, and the only loss was by two points to Northwestern.
When you dive into the deeper stats though Illinois has the edge. The Fighting Illini are the 15th most efficient offense and 32nd most efficient defense.
According to our DRF Sports projections, Illinois should win this game and cover with ease, however that is accounting for the return of star big man Kofi Cockburn.
Cockburn averages 21.1 points per game and 11.8 rebounds and is in discussion for Big 10 player of the year and even National Player of the Year. His return is key for Illinois. Of its five losses this season, two have come with Cockburn out of the lineup, including the blowout loss to Maryland last time out.
Since beating Michigan on January 14, Illinois has lost a double OT thriller vs. Purdue then lost Cockburn due to a concussion for the Maryland game and proceeded to lose that one, 81-65.
Michigan State is preparing for Cockburn to play despite being listed as questionable and a game time decision. The Spartans have had success away from home this year vs. winning teams going 6-2 ATS and are 4-0 ATS in true road games this season.
With all of that information you would think I am with the public and am leaning with Tom Izzo and Michigan State. Not so fast!
With or without Kofi Cockburn it will be hard for Illinois to beat Michigan State in this spot that is undoubtedly true. However, Brad Underwood, head coach of Illinois, is 21-7 ATS after failing to cover in two straight games. This is a classic bounce back spot for Illinois and a let down spot for Michigan State. Illinois was just embarrassed on the road by an average Maryland team whereas Michigan State just went on the road and upset Wisconsin as 3.5 point dogs.
Illinois also loves playing at home, they are 8-2 straight up in Champaign and 6-4 ATS, and 6-3 as a home favorite. Its only home losses this season have been to top 7 Kenpom teams, Purdue and Arizona, both of which came down to the very end.
The edge is on Illinois and I am banking on Kofi Cockburn making his return tonight which will give the Fighting Illini a huge boost.
The pick: Illinois -4.5 and you could probably wait closer to tip to get a better number
