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College Basketball Week 4 Betting Guide

Published on 11/30/2021
By Jack Fitzpatrick
Duke Blue Devils forward Wendell Moore Jr. (0) makes a pass under the basket as Gonzaga Bulldogs center Chet Holmgren (34) defends the basket during the second half at T-Mobile Arena.
© Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Thanksgiving week has come and gone and we now all of a sudden have a new number one team in the rankings. Duke took down Gonzaga in one of the best regular season college basketball games in recent memory and earned the right to call themselves the best team in the nation. Now they are just three point favorites vs. Ohio State? We’ll get into that. 

Last betting guide didn’t go so hot, with one bad beat and a few stinkers. I went 2-4 overall, but both wins were my mid major picks so that is the silver lining. On the season so far I am 5-6 and 3-0 on mid major picks. 

However over on the DRF College Sports Podcast my co host Bennett Conlin and I went 7-2 on our best bets and I am 5-1 on best bets so far on the season. So while reading this column be sure to subscribe to that podcast so you never miss a single pick! 

Now, let’s dive into how in the world No. 1 Duke is just a 3-point favorite over Ohio State in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge.

The Picks: 

Duke (-3) vs. Ohio State in the Big Ten-ACC challenge

I truly don’t understand how Duke is just a 3-point favorite against Ohio State, and apparently the public agrees with me. According to DRF sports, 96% of the public likes Duke -3 as well. 

Here is the thing though, Ohio State has dropped two of its last three after winning its first 4 and the Buckeyes are a lackluster 2-4 against the spread this season. If you go all the way back to last season, since February 21 they are 5-10 ATS. 

Duke is 3-3-1 ATS this season which isn’t much better, however they are a perfect 7-0 SU on the season including a win over Gonzaga who was ranked at No. 1 at the time.

With the likes of Wendell Moore and Paolo Banchero, the Blue Devils are a lethal team on both ends of the court. They are a top 15 team according to KenPom in both offense and defense and are extremely efficient across the board. 

The pick: Duke -3 

Purdue (-11) vs. Florida State in the Big Ten-ACC challenge 

Here is the thing about this game. Florida State has won its last four after going 1-1 to start the season. But during that four game winning streak it is just 2-2 against the spread. Purdue though is one of the most profitable teams ATS this season. The Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS this season only failing to cover a 26 point spread against Indiana State (they did win by 25 though). 

I think Purdue is one of the best teams in the country and come March it will be a Final Four team. The Boilermakers have a top two offense according to KenPom and an efficient defense. Florida State may shoot 48% from the floor and 38% from deep but Purdue’s defense will stifle what the Seminoles can do and the efficiency of Purdue’s offense will be too much to overcome. 

The pick: Give me Purdue and the 11 points. 

No. 24 Michigan (-4) vs. UNC in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge*

This game is interesting to me, both of these teams have stumbled a bit to start the season. UNC started at No. 19 in the polls and is now unranked and Michigan was No. 6 and the Wolverines now sit at the edge of the polls completely. 

This feels like a great barometer game for both teams. They both need a win and picking up a win against a solid squad will help get their seasons on the right track. 

With all that being said Michigan is the far superior team in this matchup. The two losses for Michigan have been to a No. 11 Arizona squad and a No. 25 Seton Hall team. The Wolverines are a top 10 team according to KenPom with both a great offense and defense that averages 48% shooting from the floor and holds opponents to just 38%. 

UNC has struggled this season against teams they should beat up on like Brown and College of Charleston. I think UNC is still going through some growing pains with Hubert Davis taking over in his first season and that may be why the Tarheels have stumbled a bit out of the gate. 

The pick: Michigan and the points, I would go all the way up to 7 depending on where the line goes 

Cincinnati (-1) vs. Miami (OH)*

Cincy is going to win this game easily. I have full faith in Wes Miller and I think Cincinnati is one of the better mid majors in college basketball. 

The Bearcats are 4-3 against the spread this season and are coming off their worst loss of the season. They lost by 2 to a Monmouth team that was an 11-point dog. Before that game though, they held close with Arkansas and failed to cover by just one point. This is a bounce back spot for the Bearcats after being embarrassed on their home court. 

Miami of Ohio is a solid squad themselves and have a huge three-point win over ACC foe Georgia Tech. The problem spot for the Red Hawks is their defense, they have an electric offense but a defense that is the exact opposite of electric. 

The pick: Miami’s offense is solid but I believe Cincinnati is the all-around better team in this one and if the line is as close as KenPom is predicating I like the Bearcats to pull it out

 

*lines according to KenPom game predicator. Lines have not been released as of writing this on Monday, 11/29 

 

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