Musket Man |
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Prep Recap
| Date | Trk | Race | Chart | Distance | Time | BSF | Video |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/17 | TAM | Pasco | Chart | 7 fur. | 1:23.06 | 92 | |
| 2/14 | TAM | Sam F. Davis (G3) | Chart | 1 1/16 m | 1:43.54 | 91 |  |
| 3/14 | TAM | Tampa Bay Derby (G3) | Chart | 1 1/16 m | 1:43.67 | 90 | |
| 4/4 | HAW | Illinois Derby (G2) | Chart | 1 1/8 m | 1:49.91 | 98 | |
| 5/2/09 | CD | Kenucky Derby(G1) | Chart | 1 1/4 m | 2:02 | 95 | |
Profile by Byron King
Strengths: Third in the Kentucky Derby, he was a mere nose away from finishing second in the race and appeared to be gaining on runner-up Pioneerof the Nile at the wire. He managed this strong finish despite a trip that was less than perfect. In traffic for much of the race, he was approximately two wide into the first turn and three to four wide on the second turn - not the place to be on Derby Day when rail-skimming rides were an advantage. As well as he performed in the Derby, it wasn't his best race from a figure perspective. He earned a 95 Beyer Speed Figure in the Derby, down from the 98 Beyer he posted in winning the Illinois Derby. Putting aside figures, this is a horse that simply has a desire to win. He is 5 for 7 and he proved his class in the Derby after racing in some of the lesser Kentucky Derby preps. That explains, at least in part, why jockey Eibar Coa is sticking with him in the Preakness after also being the regular rider of Big Drama.
Weaknesses: Although in top form, his career-best Beyer is merely a 98, well below par for this race and the last-race figures of Rachel Alexandra (108), Big Drama (108), and Mine That Bird (105). He also has a midpack closing style that often results in wider trips than some of his opponents. Like others in the field, he is unaccustomed to racing on two weeks' rest.
Strategy: Having ridden Musket Man to his win in the Illinois Derby and his third in the Derby, Coa knows him well and he will likely stick to what has worked for the colt, rallying him from midpack. With Rachel Alexandra, Big Drama, and others ensuring pace in the Preakness, he should get a lively pace to set up his rally.
Value: Following a Derby performance that impressed observers and proved Musket Man is not merely a second-tier 3-year-old, his odds figure to be much lower than 18-1, his price in the Kentucky Derby. He is expected to be around 8-1 or 10-1. Such odds may make him appealing to value seekers in search of a legitimate contender.
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Owners: Eric Fein & Vic Carlson |
Pedigree Analysis by Dan Illman
Dosage Profile: 5-1-4-0-0
Dosage Index: 4.00
Center of Distribution: 1.10
Auction: $15,000 yearling, $35,000 RNA juvenile
Sire: Yonaguska was a brilliant sprinter. He won the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes in a dead-heat with City Zip as a juvenile, and then won three graded stakes between 6 and 7 furlongs the following season. He earned a career-best 107 Beyer Speed Figure in winning the Grade 3 Sport Page Handicap at 6 1/2 furlongs. Yonaguska raced three times in routes. His best finish going long was a third in the Grade 1 Champagne around a one-turn mile and a sixteenth.
Yonaguska's sire, Cherokee Run, finished second in the 1993 Preakness.
Dam: Fortuesque earned blacktype when being put up to third via disqualification in the Susan's Girl division of the Florida Stallion Stakes at six furlongs. She raced once past a mile in her career, finishing last of five in a $32,000 optional claimer.
Notable names deep in the female family include Silent Screen, the third-place finisher of the 1970 Preakness Stakes, Grade 3 winner Belladora, Test Stakes winner Time for Bed, Ashland Stakes winner Drowsy, and Spinaway Stakes winner Sunday Evening.
Outlook: Musket Man is a tough performer, and he continues to outrun his mostly sprint-oriented pedigree. The turnback in distance should work to his favor, but 1 3/16 miles still may be just beyond his scope.