Analysis (by Kenny Peck)

Strengths: It’s no coincidence that his best Beyer Speed Figures have come at longer distances, as both his sire and dam were best in routes. That workout he turned in last Wednesday was solid, and he has never been better than he is right now. His figures are also steadily on the rise, and his early speed should mean he gets early position regardless of the pace scenario.

Weaknesses: His Beyers are light compared to the top runners in the Preakness, and he would need to post a career-best figure to hit the board. His latest Beyer was his best yet, but it was earned with the aid of a loose lead, and that scenario is unlikely on Saturday. His best races have come when he has been on the lead, and he is going to have company on the front end in the Preakness, and that will make it tough for him to last. He was no match for Gayego despite a favorable trip in the Arkansas Derby, and that one has his own work cut out for him.

Strategy: The strategy seems clear: Stay close early and hope for slow fractions. He showed in the California Derby that he has a bit of a rating gear, but his best efforts have come when he has been on the front end, so his best chance to hang on for a share may be to try to shake loose in the opening stages.

Value: He looms a very big price, as his Beyers don’t fit all that well, and since he blew a clear lead at a shorter distance last time, against a lesser field, his chances of wiring this field appear to be slim.