Analysis (by Michael Hammersly)

Strengths: His up-close fourth in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial shows he’s not out of his element against the elite of his crop. That run also represented a nice rebound off his poor run when ninth in the Grade 3 Gotham in the slop one race earlier. In terms of distance ability, it doesn’t hurt that he is sired by Giant’s Causeway, a stayer himself and surely a producer of stayers.

Weaknesses: Historically, the new-shooter angle hasn’t worked. In the last 24 Preaknesses only Red Bullet and Bernardini did not race in the Derby and then showed up at Pimlico and won this race. All of the other 22 winners in that span were Derby runners. Giant Moon has shown talent, but he has yet to win a graded stakes, and now he is tackling some rivals at the top of the 3-year-old class.

Strategy: He used his speed to win his first four career outings, but when able to make a threatening move going into the stretch in the Wood Memorial, he showed that he’s not a one-dimensional speed horse. Still, his speed will allow him to stay close, and if for some reason Big Brown doesn’t fire he could be in a good spot. The question will be, is he good enough?

Value: He’s been under the radar, and with the bettors pounding Big Brown and a few other more high-profile horses, he might go off 30-1 or higher. His proximity to Tale of Ekati in the Wood – he was fourth, beaten by two lengths – may make 30-1 at somewhat tempting, – and downright risky.