Thursday - May 18, 2006
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Hi everyone! Thanks for coming out tonight. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming to tonight's Preakness chat, we'll start with a question from fat_daddy... |
| fat_daddy: | Q: Taking out the top 3 horses, BD, SNS, and Barbaro, who do you like in the money of the other six? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Like Now may be the best of the other six. He draws inside, has speed, and will be prominent... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | in the early portion of the race. He reminds me a bit of Scrappy T, who skipped the Derby, and ran well... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | in the Preakness. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Folks -- Try not to run on too long with your questions, they get truncated when they come through. Sorry, can't tell you what the character limit is. |
| injun: | Q: dan any chance SNS pulls the upset? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I think he has a very good chance. He had a bad trip in the Derby. He broke poorly, was shuffled back and had dirt kicked in his face... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | for the first time, then made a big midmove to contention. I'm not worried about the late fade. He used all of his energy just getting into the race... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | If you look at his past races and speed figures, he's just as fast as Barbaro, and may get the jump on him on Saturday. |
| Amateurcapper: | Q: Hello Dan...Love all your work w/ DRF! What do you make of Bernardini's chances v. BD and Barbaro w/ outside draw? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Thanks. Bernardini has all the potential in the world. He has a beautiful pedigree, and is so lightly-raced that he probably hasn't shown his best stuff yet... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | That being said, he's never gone 2 turns in his career, and will likely have to hustle to avoid being hung out wide going into the first turn... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He may fit best for a minor award. |
| montana1: | Q: Other than the big 3, who do you believe will improve the most on the Beyer scale. |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | You're probably going to laugh, but Hemingway's Key may improve the most on the Beyer scale. That's more an indictment of his current form than... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | anything else. His best number to date is an 84, but he takes the shades off, and should get a quick pace to run at. He should improve his Beyer. It won't be enough to win, but he can improve. |
| Jack_Hass: | Q: Hey Dan! Love the Blogs. Is there any chance for Like Now to perform well being the speed from the rail? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Thanks. I think he will perform very well from the rail. He has the speed, and should be in front while hugging the rail... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | going into the first turn. There are a lot of distance, stamina, and class questtions that he'll have to address, however, so I |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | would probably relegate him to the bottom of my tickets. |
| ddmac: | Q: Dan, With the top 3 Derby entries in the mix for the exotics, the main chance for a decent payout is one of the "new entries" cracking the top 3. Any thoughts on a live longshot .... not for first but second or thire??? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Like Now has a good chance to hit the board. A lot of folks are going to try and get Bernardini into the number... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Don't forget about Greeley's Legacy. He was only beaten a 1/2 length by Sweetnorthernsaint in the Gotham... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | disliked the slop in the Wood, and then ran a sneaky-good race from an outside post in the Lexington... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He's an interesting horse, but Like Now may be the best of the 'sleeper' runners. |
| THE_REAL_DAN_ILLMAN: | Q: mr illman im of the opinion that if going wild were still a three year old Lucas would think this was a perfect spot for him...do you agree |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I would have agreed with you as far back as a day or two ago, but I noticed that he didn't enter his 'best' 3yo, Simon Pure, in the Preakness, and instead opted to go elsewhere. So maybe, everyone can learn a new trick or two. |
| mtg: | Q: It doesn't appear that the Preakness will be a money making opportunity. Is there a horse in one of the other stakes races that might give this opportunity? Thanks. |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | How about Humoristic at 10-1 in the Gallorette. She goes second off the layoff, and has some quality in a deep field. |
| jimmymaz1: | Q: Dan, based on my visual impressions while watching the race, I thought the pace in the Derby, irregardless of the fractions, was not especially fast. I thought that led in part to Barbaro's easy trip and huge win. I'd be interested in your opinion. Thanks |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I think you have to give Barbaro a bit more credit. It is his great agility that overcame his poor start, and got him into that prime position... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | While not as fast as it could have been (if SinMin went gonzo with Keyed Entry, it would have been really fast), the pace was solid, and Barbaro was impressive. He had a good trip once they... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | swung into the backstretch, but for Barbaro to regain his composure after the poor start is a real testament to the horse. |
| ChickenDinner: | Q: I know you liked SNS in the Derby like I did, how do you feel about his chances in the Preakness? Will he sit just off of Bro Derek and Like Now? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I think you've got the scenario down pat. Like Now, Bro Derek, and perhaps Bernardini will be part of the pace picture... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | and SNS may be sitting in a nice spot in the clear just off them with Barbaro sitting behind SNS. It's possible that SNS will get the jump on Barbaro, and then the horse race will begin. I like his chances. |
| Jack_Hass: | Q: You've mentioned a number of times that Sweetnorthernsaint had dirt kicked in his face and that its an excuse for him in the Derby, can you explain how you handicap such a factor and whether or not he'll get dirt kicked in his face on Saturday? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | When you look at his pp's, you see a lot of 1's, 2's and 3's for his first call. That means that he likes to be in front, and if you watch his races, he's usually outside of horses... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | In the Derby, he got shuffled back behind horses, and had dirt kicked back at him for the first time in his career. I'm sure it wasn't a pleasant experience. For horses with a late-running style, they are used to getting that kickback. Speed horses aren't... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | SNS didn't have his usual trip in the Derby, but if he breaks well in the Preakness, he should be able to be forwardly-placed outside of horses. |
| red: | Q: Who has the best chance to upset Wanderin Boy and Barbaro? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Both are the likely winners of their respective races, but We Can Seek may give Wanderin Boy a headache in the Pimlico Special, and Sweetnorthernsaint may have the best chance to upset Barbaro. |
| OCTAVE_THE_RAVE: | Q: Hey Dan, what are these people smoking? Here a little known fact: on the gallop out following the Derby, Barbaro's 6.5 length winning margin increased to 20 before the outrider managed to take hold of him. What does THAT tell you? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | It tells me exactly what the race itself told me. It was a monstrous performance, and he's going to be a handful on Saturday. |
| Sweet: | Q: Dan - who had the more difficult trip in the Derby, Brother Derek or Sweetnorthernsaint? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Tough call, but I'll go with SNS. Brother Derek did throw a shoe, and was wide the whole way, but SNS was really taken out of his element by the bad start, and the subsequent midrace move...I think SNS had the slightly tougher trip. |
| Pete: | Q: Dan, your "STONE COLD" trifecta???? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Sweetnorthernsaint, Barbaro, Like Now |
| double_j: | Q: I've heard about BD losing the shoe... what exactly does that mean, and how much does it hurt a horse? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | From what I've heard, he has these glue-on shoes because of tender feet, and one of them simply came off. I don't think it hurt him physically, but it probably was uncomfortable. |
| surgass1: | Q: Dan,what do you think Greeley's Legacy |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Interesting longshot that was one of my Kentucky Derby "Under the Radar" horses on drf.com. He's in sneaky-good form. He earned a big... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Beyer in the Gotham, didn't like the slop in the Wood, and was wide every step at Keeneland in the Lexington. I'm not sure he has much improvement... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | left in him as he's already raced 11 times, but you could do worse if you're looking for value on the bottom of tickets. |
| Jack_Hass: | Q: Is trip handicapping more important in handicapping the Preakness or speed, pace and class? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | You always have to start with the basics of speed, pace, and class. A horse could have a terrible trip in his last race, but if he hasn't shown that he can be competitive on a speed figure scale... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | then I'll argue that he isn't fast enough to compete even with an optimum setup. Narrow down the contenders using speed, pace, and class, and then use trip handicapping to sort out the rest. That would be my advice. |
| COMET7: | Q: Hello Dan, I'm a southern Californian and have seen Brother Derek a couple of times. Why, since before Derby day, has everyone not thought that much of him? Is is because of the small fields? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | It probably has something to do with that, but the East Coast bias is still prevalent, and it's always going to be tough to convince New York and Kentucky fans that these... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | SoCal 'hype' horses are as good as they seem. Don't get me wrong. Brother Derek is a really good horse, and he has a chance on Saturday. But the small fields have in part hurt him with the press. |
| Edwin: | Q: Dan, How good do you think Barbaro is. |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He's top-class. He's just as good, if not better, than Smarty Jones was at this point in their respective careers. Smarty was undefeated going into the Preakness just like Barbaro. There's no telling how good he can be. |
| montana1: | Q: Dan, do you like SNS to win based on wagering value or do you really like him over Barbaro on ability. |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Excellent question. Barbaro is the most likely winner of this race, and he's probably the most athletically-gifted horse in the race... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Still, he won't offer any value, and SNS did have an excuse in the Derby. Also, SNS's prior Beyers were just as good as Barbaro's. He's a nice horse in his own right. I like SNS based more on value, but he certainly has a good shot. |
| yes: | Q: How long did it take Matt Carrothers to convince you that SNS was the play? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | When I found out that Matt Carothers picked SNS, I knew he had no shot in the Derby. I'll tell him that tomorrow on Blinkers Off. He may pick SNS again in the Preakness... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | That way, he's an automatic toss. |
| PatrickB: | Q: Dan, no mention of Diabolical. Is he an automatic throwout of yours and will the 9 post hurt him? Thank you |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | It's hard to like him based on his form. He only earned an 82 Beyer last time out, and he was 1-20 in a 4-horse field at Delaware. He seems to be more of a sprinter-miler, and the outside post won't help... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I'd be shocked if he won. |
| THEGLOVE: | Q: Dan, have you ever qualified for the DRF Handicapping Championships? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | As a DRF employee, I'm not eligible. |
| Whokayers: | Q: Can you create a no Barbaro, no Bro. Derek in the money scenario? Thanx |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I don't think I can create a no Barbaro ITM scenario. It's possible that Brother Derek will be off the board. Remember that he hasn't won outside of SoCal, and he won't be on the lead on Saturday. Maybe he'll back out of it down the backstretch. |
| wallace: | Q: Dan,does bernardini have the foundation to go the distance |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Good question. I'm not sure if he does. He only has 3 races, and has never gone 2 turns. He has pedigree, and plenty of potential, but may be short on foundation. |
| joe_d: | Q: did post position beat brother derek or was it all barbaro |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | It was all Barbaro. |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Thanks for coming out, and have a fun, profitable Preakness. Good night. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Preakness! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Preakness Day past performances are on sale now! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | COMING SOON: Exotic Betting By Steven Crist. Click the ad to your right for more details. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | If you arrived late, we will be posting a transcript of tonight's chat within the hour in the DRF.com Preakness section. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | In the words of Stanley Bergstein, good night all. |
