Wednesday - May 17, 2006
| BRAD_FREE: | Hello everyone. Fire away. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming to tonight's Preakness chat, we'll start with a question from Charlie_backstretch... |
| Charlie_Backstretch: | Q: Hi Brad, Like Now looking to sit off the pace will be a mistake that could hurt Barbaro. It leaves Brother Derek a very good chance to control the speed and be very very dangerous. Your thoughts? Thanks |
| BRAD_FREE: | Like Now's connections chose the inside post position at the draw. That leads me to believe they plan on taking the track, and attempting to wire the field. Good luck to them. |
| BRAD_FREE: | Furthermore, I doubt Brother Derek will set the pace. I really don't know if he is fast enough. |
| Jim: | Q: Hi Brad I enjoy your articles. Do you think Brother Derek or Sweetnorthernsaint may bounce from their efforts in the Derby? |
| BRAD_FREE: | I do not subscribe to the bounce theory. Both horses ran super despite impossible trips. I do not believe they will bounce. Their main problem is they may be up against a potential monster in Barbaro. |
| 34DoubleD: | Q: Mr.Free, what are your thought on Hemingway's Key?Thank you |
| BRAD_FREE: | I am really not sure why he is in the race. Over the past 14 years, every Preakness winner had previously earned a Beyer Figure of 100 or more. The best fig earned by HK is 84. No thanks. |
| KELTICNIGHT2004: | Q: based on his final quarter time in the derbyi think barbaro is the best chance of a triple winner in recent years.would you care to comment? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Considering how many horses have come close to winning the Triple Crown in recent years, I believe we'll see one very soon. Maybe this year. No matter how you analyze Barbaro's performance - final quarter, margin of victory, Beyer Figure - it was a stellar performance. But he still needs to win the Preakness before the Belmont. One race at a time. Sorry if I sound like a trainer. |
| flagdown: | Q: Brad - Bernardini looks to be the best of the fresh shooters, the breeding is impeccable, and he looks like he'll rate if asked. Your thought on his chances of an upset? |
| BRAD_FREE: | He won a four-horse race last time. He ran fast. Yes, he is bred to be something special. But it's a lot to ask going up against three very talented horses, and from his outside draw he might not get a good trip. I don't like him in this spot. |
| Pete: | Q: Brad, I look at Sweetnorthernsaint and I see a suspect Ill Derby field, and behind that I see a more of the same. Did the Derby expose him as a Grade 2-3 horse? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Good question, yes that is possible. But if you watch the Derby replay closely, you will see that SNS actually ran a phenomenal race. Squeezed at the start, buried behind runners early, huge mid-race move, in contention at the quarter pole. I think the Derby actually validated SNS as a legitimate G1 horse, more so than his Illinois Derby win. Which, you are right, came over a bad field. |
| bocasteve: | Q: Kent D. on SSS has a habit of trying to "herd" horses inside of him---do you think that this could become a viable factor in the race? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Jockey tactics/strategy often play an outcome. Trying to predict what they will do, and when they will do it, is a study in frustration. Impossible question to answer. |
| PatrickB: | Q: Is the 9 post by Diabolical bad for this speedster on the Pimlico track? |
| BRAD_FREE: | The problem with Diabolical is not the 9 post. Rather, it is the competition. I think Diabolical might prefer sprints, based on his race record and pedigree. |
| marlar: | Q: Do you have an opinion on whether the short time between the Derby and Preakness will adversely affect Barbaro? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Barbaro had five weeks between the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby. He is a fresh horse that, in my opinion, stands an above-average chance of holding form through the three-race series. The two weeks is always a concern, for any Preakness starter who ran in the Derby. That means Barbaro, SNS and BD. |
| smartalexboro: | Q: Hi ,do you think a stone cold trifecta with the big three horses? |
| BRAD_FREE: | I would never make a bet like that. What is the point? It will pay peanuts. Might as well bet Barbaro to show. I wouldn't do that, either. |
| Joseph: | Q: Win money is going to be weak, so I'll be trying to catch a $10-20 tri. I'm looking for a shot with some odds in third ... any strong feelings for a horse at a price? Thanks! |
| BRAD_FREE: | That is a good question, and it is exactly how I plan to play it. I will be trying to get Greeley's Legacy (20-1) into the trifecta, at the expense of at least one of the three favorites. He (GL) ran a lot better than the line shows in the Lexington. |
| Congaree: | Q: Brother Derek ran a tremendous race in the Derby to get third. I think he and Barbaro are quite a bit above everyone else in the race. Do you think Brother Derek can turn the tables this time? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Brother Derek had a brutal trip. But so did SNS. No, I do not believe either horse will turn the tables on Barbaro. I'm really going out on a limb here - picking the even-money favorite. |
| Cigar: | Q: Brad, you found a C note on the sidewalk, go crazy with it. |
| BRAD_FREE: | I plan to wager that Greeley's Legacy will finish second or third. I will key him in exactas (two-hole only) and trifectas (three-hole only.) |
| horseplay: | Q: Mr Free - Do you think the odds that Like Now can wire the field are greater than or less than 12-1. |
| BRAD_FREE: | Splitting hairs here. I don't think he will wire the field, but there is a possibility. I'd say the morning line is just about right. |
| Best_Pal: | Q: Brad, as Baffert has been shipping with such great success as of late. Do you see him sneaking one in during these classic races ? |
| BRAD_FREE: | He's skipping the Preakness, but is expected to have one or two runners in the Belmont. Baffert's horses have been badly over-rated all spring, including Wood winner Bob and John, and SA Derby runner-up Point Determined. They're just not as good as people want to make them. |
| Lewscrew: | Q: I think Barbaro is going to wim again. What is the best way to play the race to make the most out of my wager? Heavy exacta? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Why not just take even money, and not worry about who will finish second? |
| PatrickB: | Q: Brad - I am automatically throwing out the 2-3-8. Who are your 3 automatic throwouts? |
| BRAD_FREE: | I agree that those three (Platinum Couple, Hemingway's Key and Bernardini) are up against it. So is Diabolical. That's four. The only longshot I can make a case for, and it is a reach, is closer Greeley's Legacy, who will be finishing. |
| saxplayer: | Q: Do you think the betting line will fall below even money? Thank you! |
| BRAD_FREE: | I think the Pimlico linemaker did a good job. Even money is about right on Barbaro. |
| Charlie_Backstretch: | Q: Brad, If this track is muddy/sloppy who do see as possible threats with off track breeding. Thanks |
| BRAD_FREE: | Barbaro has won in the slop, SweetNSaint won by 10 in the slop. I think mud breeding takes a back seat to proven wet-track ability. If it rains, (20 percent chance as of Wednesday), then I believe Barbaro will win. I also believe he will win on dry land. Handicappers spend way too much time worrying about weather. Two years ago the Kentucky Derby was run in a sea of mud, and the favorites ran one-two. It happens all the time in these big races. Good horses run on just about anything. |
| woobie: | Q: DO YOU THINK THE SPEED FAVORING CALIFORNIA TRACKS HURT HORSES COMING EAST? |
| BRAD_FREE: | No, I do not. California shippers to the East have done pretty well over the years. |
| smartalexboro: | Q: I really like Wandering Boy at Pimlico Speical.What kind of odds should I get? |
| BRAD_FREE: | He is 8-5 on the line, and could go shorter. Question is, is that a fair price on a horse whose best races were at Keeneland. He'll be underlaid no matter how you sliice it. Having said that, I think he'll win. It's not a good race, and probably should be downgraded to Grade 2. |
| only_exotics: | Q: Brad, would it make better sense 2 bet the cards at Churchill or Lone Star looking 4 value, or go after the rookies money in Baltimore? Thanx |
| BRAD_FREE: | My advice is to bet the card that you the best insight on. In this day and age of simulcasting, I don't think there are many days that include all that much "rookie money." |
| nut: | Q: Assuming Barbaro wins Sat what do you think of Sunriver in the Belmont? |
| BRAD_FREE: | I have been a big fan of Sunriver since his tough trip in the Florida Derby. We get to watch him run once more before the Belmont to see how good he really is. I believe he is going in the Peter Pan. I do like Sunriver. But at this point, Barbaro is a better horse. How's that for stating the obvious? |
| Rhinoblaster: | Q: Brad, I got my super 6-5-4-7; What's your super? |
| BRAD_FREE: | I don't play superfectas in nine-horse fields. They don't pay enough. I'd rather try to hit a modest trifecta with Greeley's Legacy somewhere in there. |
| BOXITBOY: | Q: THE SPEED FIGURES ARE FASTER ON BROTHER DEREK ANSTEAD OF BARBARO- I THINK THAT THE 3 COLTS ARE GOING TO HIT THE WIRE TOGHTHER- THE BEST HORSE ALWAYS WINS THE PREAKNESS- I LIKE SAINT TO TURN THE TABLES ON THE OTHER TWO- WHAT DO YOU THINK |
| BRAD_FREE: | Are you predicting a triple dead heat? Recent history of the Preakness is that form holds up. The favorite has won the last five years, the Derby winner has won the Preakness six of the last nine years. Brother Derek's speed figures were earned in small fields with no pace. If you like SNS, now is the time to bet him. His race in the Derby was super. |
| jimbo: | Q: being from the west coast, are you comfortable handicaping a 9 horse field. i respect your opion but this is virgin territory |
| BRAD_FREE: | Nice shot. Yes, I think I can handle it. |
| rudi: | Q: Can you imagine a scenario where Barbaro finishes out of $$$$ |
| BRAD_FREE: | Absolutely. There are 100 ways to lose a race. Bad luck, two weeks, disqualification to name a few. |
| Rhinoblaster: | Q: Brad, your a fan of GL in this one, however jockey Castellano went with Bernardini?? Why? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Bernardini is a faster horse, with more potential upside. His agent made the right call. |
| bocasteve: | Q: IF Funny Cide scratches out of the Special -- which I agree is a weak race what does it say about his future --Grade 2 or ungraded stakes in his future? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Funny Cide has pretty much established himself these days as a veteran whose Grade 1 days are behind him. But he is still a good, solid G2-G3 caliber horse. |
| Cigar: | Q: so why are you playing GL then? |
| BRAD_FREE: | GL is 20-1 on the line, in a race that should unfold with a fast pace that would flatter his closing run. Bernardini is only 8-1, drawn outside with speed to his inside. I'll take the price. I still think Bernardini is a better long-range prospect. |
| nut: | Q: How did you do in the Derby? |
| BRAD_FREE: | No good. I liked Sweetnorthernsaint, with Steppenwolfer to hit the board. You saw what happened. |
| skeptical: | Q: did you take offense to jeff mullins public comment that only "IDIOTS" bet on horses |
| BRAD_FREE: | No, I did not. Mullins was misrepresented in that story. Not misquoted, only misrepresented. I don' |
| BRAD_FREE: | I do not take offense at trainer's remarks. |
| Pancake: | Q: Brad, do you see any dirty pool going on in that Barbaro is sandwiched between the 2 top other contenders? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Not really. Barbaro picked post 6 before the other two made their post selections. Brother Derek was not going to go outside him after what happened (wide trip) in the Derby. When SNS made his post selection, the only three that were left were 7,8,9. I don't think post will matter much in this race, tell you the truth. |
| Frankie_V: | Q: With the speedy Like Now getting the rail, what are the chances the others will let him go to an uncontested lead? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Brother Derek has to use his speed this time. If he loses the Preakness, he will lose it using his best weapon. Bernardini has to go from the outside. SNS and Barbaro are pressers. I don't see an uncontested lead in this race. |
| G_W__Bush: | Q: Why is Sweet Forty your BEST BET of the day tomorrow at Hollywood? |
| BRAD_FREE: | She is an improving 3yo filly whose comeback win was better than it looks on paper. I'll bet her at 5-2. |
| mr_pickfour: | Q: brad, who will retire first, bonds or barbaro? |
| BRAD_FREE: | I'd go with Barbaro. Which is too bad, because everyone likes Barbaro. |
| PatrickB: | Q: Brad - Are you saying that Greeley's Legacy is the wisehorse of the Preakness and not Like Now? |
| BRAD_FREE: | I hope GL is not the wiseguy horse. I hope he starts at 20-1 or higher. If he becomes the wiseguy horse and gets hammered, I'm not going to like him as much. |
| talimo: | Q: Brad, Do you think She's an Eleven wil win the Black Eyed Susan race on Friday? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Yes, I do. She's an Eleven's win at Hollywood Park was sensational. Besides, I like shippers from the speed-favoring California tracks going to the East. |
| only_exotics: | Q: Brad Bailey may be the best jockey ever-How will he be as a handicapper? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Bailey's analysis, from what I have seen, is terrific. He's a welcome addition to racing broadcasts. , |
| edlewb: | Q: My tri 1-3-5 Whats yours? |
| BRAD_FREE: | You're betting on Barbaro and SNS to finish off the board? I'm not that brave. I like Barbaro to win the Preakness, SNS and Brother Derek are my second and third choices. But I will be wagering that one of them misfires and that Greeley'temwahgering will kwI |
| BRAD_FREE: | Greeley's Legacy can sneak into the trifecta. Thanks for tuning in. Good luck Saturday. |
| classhandicapper: | Q: Was the rail OK derby day? |
| BRAD_FREE: | As far as I know it was okay. I don't think there was a blatant bias. |
| BRAD_FREE: | That's it for tonight. Good luck on Saturday, make sure you check in Thursday with Dan Illman . |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Preakness! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | COMING SOON: Exotic Betting By Steven Crist. Click the ad to your right for more details. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Preakness Day past performances are available now! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | If you arrived late, we will be posting a transcript of tonight's chat within the hour in the DRF.com Preakness section. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | In the words of Stanley Bergstein, good night all. |
