| Imperialism may crash Smarty's party
By NOEL MICHAELS
After his wonderful Kentucky Derby victory, there's no longer any doubt that Smarty Jones is for real. He's undefeated in seven starts and was clearly the best horse in the race on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs. Five of the last seven Derby winners have won the Preakness, but as much as I'll be rooting for Smarty Jones to win the second jewel of the Triple Crown, I just can't pick him at odds that figure to be close to even money. Smarty Jones will be the horse to beat at Pimlico, but he'll once again need to bring his best effort to defeat a solid field that includes talented new shooters like Rock Hard Ten and Eddington, and live Derby also-rans like pace-setting Lion Heart and late-running Imperialism.
Preakness - G1
Pimlico - Race 12
1 3/16 miles, purse: $1,000,000
1) 8-Imperialism
2) 7-Smarty Jones
2) 1-Lion Heart
3) 10-Rock Hard Ten
Imperialism was beaten fair and square by both Smarty Jones and Lion Heart in the Kentucky Derby, but unlike those two rivals, we may not have seen the best of Imperialism at Churchill Downs. Imperialism closed strongly down the center of the stretch in the Derby, but was only good enough for third after getting shuffled back in traffic into the far turn while the leaders got away from the field. Nevertheless, once Imperialism was guided off the rail, he was the only horse in the race to make up any appreciable ground from off the pace on a sloppy track. Imperialism's rally was too late to catch Smarty Jones and Lion Heart in the Derby, but he should be in better striking position in the Preakness with fewer horses and less traffic to navigate through. Since Imperialism can't see out of his right eye, being on the inside is a major disadvantage for him. Getting stuck inside definitely cost Imperialism a better finish in the Santa Anita Derby, and it may have cost him a better finish in the Kentucky Derby, too. If Imperialism can stay in the clear on the outside and circle horses in the Preakness, he may prove to be the horse to beat. Also, his odds should be in the range of 6-1 to 8-1, which is a lot more attractive than even money on Smarty Jones.
Smarty Jones was so impressive in the Kentucky Derby that it seems like a shame not to pick him on top in the Preakness. Even though I'm picking against him, I must admit that he does seem like the most likely winner of the Preakness based on his seven straight wins and his ability to handle a variety of different tracks and surfaces. Now that Smarty Jones has proven the classic distances won't be a concern, it's difficult to pick him out of the exacta in the Preakness against a bunch of horses he beat so easily two weeks ago plus some new shooters who may not be quite as good. Smarty Jones has good tactical speed, he can rate, and he's the most competitive and game horse in the field. Besides his low odds, there's very little not to like about him this Saturday.
Lion Heart has speed and the rail and will once again be trying go wire-to-wire in the Preakness just as he attempted to do in the Kentucky Derby before getting caught by Smarty Jones in the stretch. Perhaps the rail will be golden or the track will be speed favoring at Pimlico on Saturday, and perhaps the slightly shorter distance will be enough to help him hold on to the finish. If not, it may be tough for Lion Heart to turn the tables on Smarty Jones, Imperialism, or even The Cliff's Edge, who each have scored victories against him over the course of his last three races.
The most intriguing of all the new faces in the Preakness is Rock Hard Ten, who may have unlimited ability but lacks experience with only three career starts coming into this race. Rock Hard Ten is big, fast, and athletic and may be a freak of nature, but he'd look a whole lot more attractive in this spot if he hadn't been scratched out of his prep race in the Derby Trial three weeks ago. As it stands, he'll be trying to win this race in his return from a six-week layoff after last being seen finishing a close second (DQ'd to 3rd) on April 3 in the Santa Anita Derby.
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