| DRF_WebGrp: | We're having problems getting Steve logged in, hopefully we'll have him in soon. Sorry for the delay. |
| pete_axthelm: | Q: Can Rock hard Ten improve enough to win? |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | He certainly has room to improve and is a beautiful, large-bodied horse. He's training well, but this is a jump up in class, I wish he had another race. A good effort is likely, might be overbet however. |
| bocasteve: | Q: How do you see the Special/Preakness Double -- if you had to single both races? |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | I don't want to single both races. I do like 2 horses in the Pimlico Special. I like Dynever, the strongest stretch-runner, and Midway Road, the strongest front-runner. I'll use them both. We'll talk about the Preakness as we move along. |
| catthief: | Q: Steve, Borrego: live longshot? |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | He could be. He made a wide move in the Derby, looked like he could continue on but floundered in the wet track in the lane. It's conceivable he could run back to his Arkansas Derby. He worked very fast for the Preakness. Closing horses who work very fast for short distances seem to improve in big races. |
| alyanna47: | Q: Do you think Imperialism`s closing style will be impaired due to the tight turns at Pimlico? |
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| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | Pimlico does not have tighter turns that Churchill. What it does have is a 1st turn that is not well-banked. Some horses lose their momentum on the 1st turn. Only 1 closer in the history of Pimlico made a move wide on the 1st turn and went on to win. That was Secretariat. Imperialism finished very well after getting into trouble at Churchill. He finished full of run and is a stretch threat. However, wet tracks suits that horse quite a bit. I expect him to make a run but seems best used in 2nd and 3rd slots. |
| RockHard12: | Q: Some horseplayers conisder Pimlico speed favoring track. Should we give an advantage in the Preakness to horses that expect to be on the front? |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | In most races, horses that get to the inner part of the track have an advantage. You should watch the early races to see if that holds true. The Preakness is not a front-runner's race. A fast horse with tactical speed usually wins but it's probably the one Triple Crown race that cam be won from way off the pace if the pace gets very hot. You don't want to lose too much ground on the 1st turn. |
| spittin__the_bit: | Q: Eddington seems to have a big upside, because he is very green. Do you think he is ready for a race like this? |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | Eddington has upside but I believe he can step forward and run reasonably well (off the Wood). He's still green. I don't like him to win. |
| DAVE: | Q: Everyone suspects Lion Heart will again set the pace. Given better track conditions, how do you rate Imperialism`s chances? |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | We already addressed Imperialism's chances. |
| barkingshark: | Q: Who will go after Lion Heart first? |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | It looked like Sir Shackleton would, if his mate ran. I don't think The Cliff's Edge will run, without him in the race 'Sir isn't a rabbit anymore. I think he'll be in the 2nd flight along with Smarty Jones. Derby horses such as Pollard's Vision and Quinton's Gold Rush are better horses than 'Sir. |
| softball: | Q: Do you think Water Cannon has a chance on Sat.? |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | I don't think he has a real chance. Literally, he's about 500-1 to win the race. He could hit the board. We' ve seen locally-based horses complete large exotics but not a win threat is 'Cannon. |
| matta: | Q: Hi Steve, Do you think lion heart will bounce? |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | I think Lion Heart remains the most serious upset threat to Smarty Jones. The exacta of those has minimal value however. LIon Heart is the fastest horse, has a great post for a speed, is lightly raced also. Not a lot against him. |
| OhioCapper: | Q: Steve, If Smarty runs the same as in the Kentucky Derby, do you think he will win or does his team have to changeup their approach. |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | I think if the Preakness unfolds as I suspect, close to the Derby pace scenario, he has to nrun the same race to win, I believe he can improve and has another notch of development. I believe we saw this last year with Funny Cide. He won the Derby and improved in the preakness in a similarly run race. We saw it with War Emblem. I think he'll be very hard to beat. |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | In my personal odds line on him in the race, a value line, relative to how much of the race he controls to himself, I see him as 4-5. In other words, if they ran this race 100 times he'd win 55 or 60 in my opinion. He shows me that he finishes as well as the stretch-runners in the field and is already significantly ahead of them tunring for home |
| rock_968: | Q: Who`s your pick for the race? |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | He's my pick, but to make $ for this race, you have to do 1 of 3 things: try to beat Lion Heart (Imperialism, Borrego and Rock Hard Ten) in the exactas/trifectas or play the daily double or single him in the Pick 4. |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | There's always a reasonable betting strategy to play away from a favorite, even a good favorite who seems dominant the way the race should be run. A saver play or co-win key in trifectas and superfectas could be the way to go. I'm not sure which horse I'll use in tandem with 'Smarty in that capacity but will take a shot with one of the 3 I earlier mentioned. |
| wrongly: | Q: Steve what`s your best bet on Saturday`s card |
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| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | As I said before, I like the PImnlico Special/Preakness double. There's also a horse in the Dixie I like. Better Talk Now is my choice in an interesting race. Watch closely for Silver Tree for the future. He looked like a potential turf champion last summer at 3 and is coming back under Billy Mott. |
| AceFinn: | Q: Can anyone beat Yearly Report or is she an easy single? |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | I might take a showith the lightly-raced improving Song Track. But the favorite will take plenty of beating. |
| J: | Q: What are your feelings on the light racing regimen that todays horses are put through in order to keep them healthy and supposedly competitive. Would it not make more sense to lighten the training regimen, and compete in more races? These are athletes a |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | Personally I think the training regimens of many horses are too much. Some are knocked out after a race in 2 months and this contrasts with the regimen 10 years ago. Today's horses are treated in such a baby-like fashion that they can't endure |
| Raymond_E_: | Q: What is your opinion about the training tactic of just galloping Smarty Jones this week to make him frustrated or even "Mad" about not being able to Run. Could this hurt him come Saturday`s race? |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | This horse has never worked often. If you look at his pps, you'll see 1 work in a month. This is the 1st time he's coming back in 2 weeks, and off a 1 1/4 mile race. The trainer seems to be doing the right thing. On the other hand, he could run a flat race. These are not robots. If we look at them losing and re-evaluate we notice the knocked later. It seems to me the trainer has made no mistakes with this horse so far. |
| MayorOfMonmouthPark: | Q: Any thoughts on Little Math Man? Migliore has come up huge when riding some outsiders all year. |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | LMM is a plodder who could pick up a piece of the purse if the race falls apart. There is a tiny quirk in connection to Smarty Jones here. LMM worked very well at Philly Park and sees Smarty every day. To run him in the Preakness says something. If this were a trainer like Mandella, Baffert, Lukas, making an aggressive move from that training base. Maybe he's seen something that convinced him that Smarty isn't at the top of his form and why not take a shot? |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | That's the 1 little tiny clue you can look back to if Smarty runs poorly. Either way I don't think LMM hits the board |
| jack_2: | Q: If you were limited to $100 to bet, what bets would you make? |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | Again, I formulate my wager strategies tomorrow and Sat. AM as the races are being run. |
| fats65: | Q: Do you think that Smarty Jones is going to be a great horse, the likes of Secratariat, or is it to early to tell? |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | Absolutely not. Secretariat is the greatest horse I have ever seen. In 9 of his races, no horse I have ever seen would have beaten him, including the Marlboro Cup and even as a 2-year-old. Smarty Jones is a very good horse and even can improve a notch butif he could sweep the TC it would be an awesome achievement. He'll have to run some to catch up to Secretariat, who deserves the track record in all 3 TC events. |
| softball: | Q: Any thoughts on Song of the Sword? |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | He's a possible bomb for the botoom of tris/supers. He had serious traffic trouble on the inside the 1st few 1/8ths of the DErby, the only bad a race he's ever run. A sneaky horse, I'll probably use him at least in the 3rd level of tris. |
| CC_in_Louisville: | Q: Should I key Evening Attire on the bottom tomorrow? How`s he looking? |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | A stretch-runner who always fires. Not much value since there's not many good-priced horses there. Dynever seems a better stretch-runner right now. |
| LordDarley: | Q: I really expected better things from Master David. Sir Robert (Frankel) seems indifferent. What`s your take ? |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | Master David when he comes back may be a better turf horse than dirt horse. |
| STEVE_DAVIDOWITZ: | Thanks for everyone's patience and attendance. Sorry for the difficulties and good luck on a great Preakness card. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Preakness 129! Sorry for all of the problems tonight. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Be sure to check out Brad Free's new book, Handicapping 101. It's on sale now online in the DRF Press bookstore. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | We will be posting a transcript of tonight's chat later tonight in the DRF.com Preakness section. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Check out Youbet.com's Fan Appreciation Week and cash contest. Youbet.com - The Best of All! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Be sure to join us Friday night from 7:00-8:00 pm Eastern for a chat with Steven Crist. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | In the words of the great Stanley Bergstein, good night all. |
