| DRF_WebGrp: | Welcome everyone, we'll be starting shortly. |
| BRAD_FREE: | Test |
| BRAD_FREE: | Hello. Fire away. 30 |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Welcome everyone, we'll start with a question from "Kep" regarding Borrego. |
| Kep: | Q: Brad-- I thought Borrego ran a nice 2nd to Smarty in the Ark Derby. Do you think the slop hurt his chances in KY and he has a legitimate shot to bounce back on dry footing? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Yes, I believe that Borrego was compromised by the footing. And yes, I do believe he is the potential knockout Saturday on dry land.30 |
| bayside: | Q: bayside: can eddington duplicate what red bullet did in 2000? |
| BRAD_FREE: | From what I've seen of Eddington so far, I don't think he and Red Bullet should be mentioned in the same sentence. The Wood was an ugly, slow race from which Tapit and Master David returned to run poorly.30 |
| catthief: | Q: Brad, at what odds do u think the Rock will go off at and about what odds is he playable to win? |
| BRAD_FREE: | iI haven't seen Mike Watchmaker's line yet, but Pimlico has Rock listed at 6-1. That's a playable number.30 |
| fred691: | Q: Do you think Imperialism has a chance |
| BRAD_FREE: | Yes, he has a chance. Hed hasn't run a bad race since Kristin Mulhall starting training him. But I wonder if the mud at Churchill Downs may have moved him up. I won't be betting him to win or run second.30 |
| Gio: | Q: Brad, What is your exa wheel for the Preakness? |
| BRAD_FREE: | My top selection in the race is Rock Hard Ten.30 |
| Leapster: | Q: There is a Pimlico Special-Preakness double wager on Friday. What is your take on the Pimlico Special? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Dynever's comeback was terrific, and he looks poised to emerge as one of the leaders of the handicap division. I prefer him over Southern Image, who won what has turned out to be a negative key race - the Santa Anita Handicap.30 |
| mounty: | Q: Water Canon likes to be on the lead. Does he have the speed to be in front with Smarty and Lion Heart? |
| BRAD_FREE: | The only recent races in which Water Canon has been on the lead, the fractiions were 51, and :47.3. He won't see the lead on Saturday.30 |
| sydstein: | Q: What is the latest on THE CLIFF`S EDGE??? Heard about a problem that developed this week with a bad foot.... Is he a viable win candidate if healthy? |
| BRAD_FREE: | From what I have heard, he is not healthy. These aren't the type races a horse can go into with a problem. Remember last year when Empire Maker had a Derby-week setback? Stay tuned to the news on Thursday. We'll see if Zito scratches him.30 |
| will: | Q: thank you for the excellent book on handicapping . The chapter on wagering is the ever as one can pick the right ones and not profit and your explanations give new meaning to investing. How are you going to invest in the Preakness? |
| BRAD_FREE: | My preliminary strategy is to key Rock Hard Ten in the trifecta, and insist that one of the two favorites (Smarty Jones, Lion Heart) finishes off the board.30 |
| easypeasy: | Q: was Imperialism`s trip a nightmare or mirage? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Imperialism did not have a good trip, but that's going to happen often with a late-runner whose visioin is severely impaired in his right eye. So yes, he had a bad trip. He'll probably have a few more of those before his career is conmplete.30 |
| lionfish: | Q: Brad: What is your take on Smarty Jones? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Smarty Jones is a very talented horse that many handicappers (including me) badly underrated going into the Derby. I'm going to reserve judgement until after this weekend, but as I mentioned earlier, I picked Rock Hard Ten to beat the favorite.30 |
| nationalvelvet: | Q: What about Sir Shackleton? Think he can hit the board? nationalvelvet |
| BRAD_FREE: | I'll be using Sir Shackleton in the three-hole, hoping he does just that - hit the board. But this is a tough spot to try two turns for the first time, and I honestly don't expect him to be around at the finish.30 |
| TED: | Q: what`s your read on Midway Road in the pimlico special? |
| BRAD_FREE: | A horse who has never earned a triple-digit Beyer, then pops with a 123 in his 11th career start ... let's just say I will be surprised if he reproduces the effort.30 |
| Glacken: | Q: Hi Brad: Who, if any, will run early with Lion Heart? What kind of pace scenario would be best for RHT? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Sir Shackleton is fast enough to keep Lion Heart company. The best pace scenario for Rock Hard Ten would be a soft pace that would allow him to remain in contact. I expect that to happen.30 |
| capperr44: | Q: why Rock Hard Ten? he hasn`t had many races and doesn`t experience count when running inthese types of races? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Experience does count, and it's entirely possible that Rock Hard Ten just isn't good enough to win a race of this caliber. But it is equally possible, in my opinion, that Smarty Jones and Lion Heart will regress coming back just two weeks after a grueling effort in the Kentucky Derby. Further, Rock Hard Ten's second-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby was a lot better than it looks on paper. He was in the parking lot most of the trip. 30 |
| BT: | Q: why would Martin Ciresa enter Little Matth Man in this race, and is he the favorite to run dead last in this one |
| BRAD_FREE: | I doubt he'll run last, because his closing style will allow him to pick up the pieces. I don't know why he's in this race.30 |
| catthief: | Q: Brad, what was with the final time in Kentucky, 2:04, that`s awful slow? |
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| BRAD_FREE: | Yes, it was one of the slowest ever. But remember, the racetrack was a quagmire. I still think the best horse won the race. 30 |
| beyerwho: | Q: Brad, your answer to the midway road question reminds me of water cannon....11th career start also...any chance he pops a 123 on saturday??? |
| BRAD_FREE: | That's funny. Horses don't win five straight by accident, and Water Cannon dserves a chance to do his thing in front of the hometown crowd. Andrew Beyer wrote a terrific column about Water Cannon in the Wednesday edition. We doubt he'll run at 123. 30 |
| TED: | Q: who`s your pick in the Black Eyed Susan? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Yearly Report. She's the real deal. 30 |
| p4king: | Q: Interested in your opinion of Rock Hard Ten`s last race, where he was DQ`d from 2nd and put 3rd... do you really think that Imperialism would have outfinished RHT if he had a free path to the wire?? i doubt it. |
| BRAD_FREE: | Imperialism was going to finish third even without the trouble.30 |
| BornLucky63: | Q: Isn`t Smarty Jones due for a bounce? |
| BRAD_FREE: | I typically do not attempt to predict bounces. I've gotten myself into a heap of trouble trying to do just that. 30 |
| antsmarching1204: | Q: Hey Brad, got the book but haven`t started on it yet, I`m finishing up on Secretariat: The Making of a Champion, anyway how would you invest $100 in the Preakness, I`m looking for trifecta and superfecta picks, I missed the tri and super last year. |
| BRAD_FREE: | I'll be keying Rock Hard Ten in the trifecta, and structuring a play that insists on either Smarty Jones or Lion Heart finishing out of the money. Or you could just keep it simple and bet the whole thing on Rock Hard Ten to win. Nothing at all wrong with that strategy. 30ng |
| par_four: | Q: Funnycide, is he a true older grade one horse or more like a g2 or g3 ? |
| BRAD_FREE: | It looks like his form this year pretty much speaks for itself. Beaten eight lengths in a G1, a closer third in a G2, then winner of a G3. He appears to be a G2-G3 caliber horse that will make his owners a lot of money providing he stays sound. 30 |
| don: | Q: with the tight turns andtrack speed bias why bet the closers ? |
| BRAD_FREE: | I do not believe the Pimlico speed bias is as severe as others may think. Why bet the closers? Because the front-runners are potentially vulnerable. I don't consider Rock Hard Ten a "closer" however. He's a presser, who can finish. 30 |
| bite_me_2: | Q: the 2 fastest derby preps were the bluegrass and the arkansas derby. All 4 top finishers are running saturday-why does anyone think these others can break through , especially off the layoffs? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Speed figures are not the only factor in handicapping. There also are the issues of class, form and pace. 30 |
| BornLucky63: | Q: Of the 2 favorites (Smarty Jonea and Lion Heart), which do you think is more likely to finish out off the board? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Lion Heart. 30 |
| baggs: | Q: Brad, here`s a Smarty Lasix theory question. Smarty`s Beyer didn`t improve at all with first time Lasix. If he is using it again for the Preakness, do you think the 2nd time Lasix theory could hold true and he runs a career race? |
| BRAD_FREE: | I can't answer that. I just don't know. 30 |
| BT: | Q: with Eddington`s inability to close on a 21.4 43.3 fractions in the Gotham, and a so-so performance in the Wood, does he have much of a chance to make the ticket.... with bailey up he has to be getting a lot of action? |
| BRAD_FREE: | The Wood got a lot of undeserved (in my opinion) attention. Eddington could be overplayed in the Preakness, just like Wood winner Tapit was in the Derby. Until proven othewise, I'll be taking a stand against the Wood runners. 30 |
| par_four: | Q: okay brad, give us the bacon sandwich exacta for the preakness, the last two across the wire ! |
| BRAD_FREE: | Song Of The Sword, and Water Cannon. But to tell the truth, I'll have them both in the three-hole in the trifecta. 30trt |
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| Leapster: | Q: Could Pilfer hit the board in The Black Eyed Susan? This could be John Servis` year. |
| BRAD_FREE: | Other than Yearly Report, it's not exactly a stellar field is it? Sure, longshot Pilfer could hit the board. But she'll have to improve off her lifetime top Beyer of 77. 30 |
| CC_in_Louisville: | Q: Would a sloppy or muddy track change your Preakness selections? |
| BRAD_FREE: | It won't change my selections, but it will keep me from wagering on the race. 30 |
| bellsbendboy: | Q: The Preakness is the last leg of the pick 4 ..How deep would you go? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Having not handicapped the other three legs, it's a tough question to answer. Considering my top choice in the Preakness is 6-1 on the line, that would be a terrific key horse. And I don't care if a Pick-4 key horse is in the first leg, or the last leg. 30 |
| COBLYN2: | Q: Can you give me your opinion on Menifique in the Black Eyed Susan? I`m looking for possibilities for the bottom of the exacta. Pawnee Princess practically split the bit in her last race and gasped home. Am I crazy to cross her off? |
| BRAD_FREE: | You're not crazy, but Pawyne Princess was facing males last time, so I'd cut her some slack. Haven't seen the odds yet, but Menifeeque's grinding style should be good for a piece. And I doubt new trainer Mott would be running her in this race if she wasn't ready for it. 30 |
| 3crowns: | Q: what`s your gutt feeling on where Smarty Jones will finish? |
| BRAD_FREE: | First or second.30 |
| beyerwho: | Q: Brad, if rock hard ten happens to be an underlay on Saturday, how low is too low, oddswise? |
| BRAD_FREE: | If he goes as the second choice, I'll be out of action. At 4-1, I'll be taking a pass. 30 |
| Paco: | Q: What are the chances of The Cliffs Edge scratching Sat. |
| BRAD_FREE: | From what I have heard and read, I'd say it's very likely. But I'm still in California, so that's merely a long-distance best-guess. 30 |
| The_Good_Doctor: | Q: Excluding Smarty, Lion Heart, the Rock, Impy, and Cliffy, who has the best shot to win? |
| BRAD_FREE: | In other words, who is the sixth- most-probable winner? I don't know. Maybe Eddington, but if he wins, I lose. 30 |
| Matt: | Q: If Rock Hard Ten wins the Preakness and Belmont, do you think they`ll consider changing the eligibility rules for the Derby--that perhaps prevented us from having a Triple Crown winner? |
| BRAD_FREE: | No, I don't think they will change the rules, nor do I believe that they should. 30 |
| kruprock: | Q: What effect will shipping from Kentucky to California to Maryland have on Imperialism? |
| BRAD_FREE: | It's probably not the best way to get a horse to Baltimore. But the owner is calling the shots for this race. Maybe that means Imperialism is a bet-against on Saturday. 30 |
| Leapster: | Q: Any idea on when Wimbledon will return to the races? |
| BRAD_FREE: | I've heard later this year. Can't wait to see one of the most over-rated 3-year-olds of 2004 back in action. 30 |
| p4king: | Q: Hi brad, since you are familiar with S.Cal raceing, can you help me understand why the pick-4 payoffs there continue to be a much better value than their counterparts in NY, Kentucky, or Florida?? thx |
| BRAD_FREE: | I don't play NY, Kentucky or Florida enough to automatically agree. From what I've seen, the pick 4 payoffs in California offer a lot less value than when the bet was first offered. 30 |
| par_four: | Q: Brad, interesting comment by you on not betting if there is a wet track. Is this aversion to betting on races on an off surface your usual M.O or a bad experience with this years Derby ? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Good question. I typically don't play serious money on wet tracks. I won't play the Preakness on a wet track for a couple reasons. First, the horse I prefer (RHT) faces enough uncertainty already. Secondly, a longshot that I like to hit the board (Borrego) is expected to scratch if the track comes up wet. 30 |
| Brian: | Q: Brad, since "pace makes the race", what is your anticipated pace scenario in the Preakness? |
| BRAD_FREE: | Unfortunately, I think it will be similar to the Derby pace. That is, Lion Heart makes the lead, slows it down, the field bunches on the far turn, and Smarty Jones and Rock Hard Ten race to the wire. The reason I say unfortunately is because Lion Heart cannot win by trying to outfinish the field. 30 |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Preakness 129! |
| BRAD_FREE: | That's a wrap for this chat session. Good luck this Saturday, and if Rock Hard Ten isn't up to the challenge, I'll be rooting for Smarty Jones. Thanks, and good night. 30 cha |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Be sure to check out Brad Free's new book, Handicapping 101. It's on sale now online in the DRF Press bookstore. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | We will be posting a transcript of tonight's chat later tonight in the DRF.com Preakness section. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Check out Youbet.com's Fan Appreciation Week and cash contest. Youbet.com - The Best of All! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Be sure to join us Thursday night from 7:00-8:00 pm Eastern for a chat with Steve Davidowitz. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Enter the DRF Preakness Chat Sweepstakes - go to the "Chat" page in the Preakness section to enter - until 10:00 pm! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | In the words of the great Stanley Bergstein, good night all. |
