| Kentucky_Bud: | Q: Hi Steve. I`m concerned about the lack of work for Smarty. Do you think he could be rank tomorrow? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I don't know what to make of it but I'm not crazy about this "I want him to be mad" stuff. But the trainer sure hasn't made any mistakes with this horse. |
| LizBeth: | Q: Does Little Matth Man`s latest 4 furlong work at 47.21 impress you enough to figure him in the exotics? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | He's a third-only horse for me. The race really needs to fall apart for him to get a piece. |
| 6furlong: | Q: What do you make of Bailey sticking with Eddington? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Sticking with him over whom? He didn't have a better offer for the race. But for what's it's worth he did prefer Eddington to both Wimbledon and Read the Footnotes when he had a choice of all three for the Derby. |
| Dr_Braun: | Q: Would you throw out Borrego`s last race and expect him to revert to his Ark Derby race and potentially pull the upset |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I absolutely throw out his Derby. He was only 1 1/2 off SJ in the Arkansas Derby and I don't think SJ moved 10-15 lengths forward in Kentucky. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I don't know if he's good enough to win. He seems to have trouble actyually winning a race. But he's a live horse tomorrow and I'm using him. |
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| hollybird: | Q: Hi Steve. Where do you think Sir Shackleton fits in with this group? Will he be in any of your exotics? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I think he was in there primarily to keep the pace honest for Cliffie. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Now he's an orphan and a stretchout sprinter who may or may not belong. I just can't see him. |
| catthief: | Q: Steve, what kind of odds do u think Borrego will go off at and at what odds is he playable for u? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I think he'll be between 10 and 15 and he's usable in that range. For me he's more of an "underneath" than an "on top" horse. |
| Rich_2: | Q: Gary Steven`s is flying in from Paris to ride Rock Hard Ten. He must know something. How much to you value jockeys in your handicapping of the Preakness?, |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | He knows that this is a very very promising horse. We know that too. I don't think he has any secret knowledge here. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | As for jockeys in general, they're really not a factor in my handicapping of this race. Whateber value you might get from Bailey's skills, for example, are wiped out by the fact that he'll be overbet. So it evens out. |
| Rabidferret: | Q: Song of the Sword`s two worst races Beyerwise were far and away in the wet and his 103 in the Illinois Derby should put him in range of the rest of these if he can move forward. Do you think he`s got a shot or am I chasing him to get into the exotics? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | We're all chasing, but I don't think he's im[possible to get a piece. I'll be using him underneath. He's not that far off horses who are going to take a lot more money. |
| geeker: | Q: Any comments about how the track was playing today and how it might affect tomorrow |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | The track was very heavy and dull today but you can take a short price that they're going to skin and pound that thing overnight. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Same as the Derby, the day-before "bias" is usually irrelevant because they work on the track for the big day. |
| CTRacefan: | Q: Do you feel it is a mistake for Lion Heart to not be using lasix? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I'm of two minds on that. It's so rare for a guy to NOT give a horse a drug he doesn't really need, you want to applaud that... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | On the other hand, if I'm the owner and I get beat a lip, I might be second-guessing myself forever. |
| softball: | Q: Do you think Water Cannon has a chance? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | No, none. He's just way too slow to be competitive. |
| jeff: | Q: steve can imperialism really win? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | He can win by default if a lot of "ifs" happen, just like Borrego or even SOTS but I think he'll be overbet off his Derby trip. Yes he ran well in spots and had trouble but I think the wet track moved him up. He had no excuse beaten 2 by RHT in the SA Derby. |
| lee: | Q: 7 for 7 on all kinds of tracks. his pp`s look every bit as good as Seattle Slews to this point. Are people under estimating Smarty Jones |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I don;t agree that his pp's look as good as Slew's other than the seven "1's." Slew had won four Grade 1 races, Smarty's won one. Slew had set a 7f track record. Smarty hasn't run a particularly fast race. |
| 6furlong: | Q: Steven, do you believe Smarty Jones to be a lock? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | No I don't. I'm not knocking or disrespecting him but there's an argument to be made that he's led a pretty charmed life. He's the most likely winner but he'll be an underlay relative to his true odds. |
| 4stardave: | Q: A sloppy track has a way of carrying horses further than their pedigree says they want, is it possible lion heart and smarty are off the board tomorrow ? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | That would be sweet from a gambling point of view for me. Not impossible. I do think the slop carried them to some degree at CD. |
| ojjo: | Q: Who is the best longshot bet in the Preakness & why ? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | If we define longshot as > 10-1, then Borrego. He was only 1.5 lengths off SJ going a sixteenth of a mile shorter. |
| The_Good_Doctor: | Q: Rock Hard Ten has run a triple digit Beyer in all of his races to date. Do you see him "breaking through?" |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | He is the one horse other than Smarty who is eligible to be a really, really good horse. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | To run 2nd in a photo in a G! in your third career start is pretty freakish. |
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| windupbob: | Q: I see Eddington as a strong threat to win this race - do you? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I don't know about strong, but he's eligible. This is really do-or-die day for him. He keeps hinting at serious talent but needs to put it all together. |
| Jaybird: | Q: Do you see the Preakness unfolding in much the same way as the Derby? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Pretty much so, with Sir Shackleton being the wild card who could complicate the pace. The interesting thing will be whether Elliott considers Lion Heart the hors |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | the horse to beat and goes after him early. If he does,, then the closers could come get both of them. |
| slocol: | Q: From Slocol: everyone is addressing winners, give me 3 of your non-contenders on Sat. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Water Cannon and Sir Shackleton are impossible and I'll be using Little Matth Man for 3rd only |
| raf: | Q: Raf: I think Rock is so physically strong. Do you think he can survive a wide trip on the pace? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I'll take my chances if he can sit a close third, 2-3w, like he did at SA. I hope his "freshness" doesn't put him too close. |
| smarty_bones: | Q: I haven`t seen a closer from the clouds all prep season with maybe the exception of the now scratched Cliff`s Edge, who might close if anybody? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I think Imperialism, SOTS, LMM will be coming from pretty far back. As for closers during the prep season, what about Friends Lake, Castledale and Tapit? |
| larswildu: | Q: Steve, Lion Heart has had three tough races in-a-row, do you think he will regress? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Good horses can run three races in five months and not regress. The question with LH is whether he can outfinish anybody. |
| cad: | Q: One-eyed Imperialism has to run outside to be effective; won`t a wide trip hurt his chances? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Horses can run wide on the stretch turn at Pimlico. It's probably worse to be hung out wide on the first turn there. Deormeaux sure knows the track though. |
| 6furlong: | Q: Is Lion Heart capable of wiring this field on a fast track? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | He couldn't hold off Imperialism at SA, hge couldn't hold off TCE at Kee, he couldn't hold off SJ in Kentucky. Why should he? |
| hhh: | Q: We are all waiting for your picks? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Rock Hard Ten |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Eddington |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Smarty Jones |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Borrego |
| Tiznow: | Q: The `sheets` say smaty is prime for a bounce. Agree? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I'm not much for those theories. If the race doesn't set up well for him, that'll stop him more than a theory about numbers on graph paper. |
| Rhett: | Q: Why do you think Rock Hard Ten has only been out 3 times at a month apart? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | He got a late start and then he was excluded from the Derby because of earnings. I don't think there's any secret physical problem involved. |
| LizBeth: | Q: If the track comes up sloppy would you change your picks? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | No, but I would cut my bets in half. That's what I did on Derby Day and it saved me half my money because I wasn't even close. |
| CHEAPCLAIMER: | Q: HOW FROSTED ARE THE KY BLUEBLOODS THAT A NON KY-BRED WINS FOR SECOND YEAR IN A ROW? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I don't think it's that big a deal. Both horses were sired by Kentucky stallions after all. |
| luke: | Q: What about 19 of last 20 FROM derby? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | It's an imposing stat but RHT and Eddington are a little different... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Most horses who don't come out of the Derby either weren't considered good enough to run in it or had a physical problem. These two were excluded. |
| tomspud: | Q: Steve, what is your opinion of Xpressbet`s exclusivity on Preakness wagering? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I understand that they're trying to make people open XpressBet accounts but it seems that they're losing business through the bad will they're generating. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Account wagering in this country is a disgrace. Everyone needs to take everything so people can have one account. |
| maggie1: | Q: I have $50 to play this race, how do you suggest I bet? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I'd bet $30 to win on RHT..... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | and then make a $1 exacta partwheel of... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | RHT, Eddington, SJ and Borrego over those four plus Imperialism and SOTS. |
| h: | Q: what should I look for when I`m looking at the horses being saddled and in the post parade.What would change your mind if you saw it? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | If I saw a horse drop dead I might go change my tickets. Othjerwise, I don't pay much attention to that.ri |
| catthief: | Q: Steve, since 1997 the Kentucky Derby winner has a phenominal record in the preakness, is this a statistical fluke or a new trend for lightly raced horses? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | It's a statistical fluke. 5 for the last 7 but only 7 for the last 20. |
| smart_dog: | Q: Its been mentioned by some of your peers that they are happy Funny Cide didn`t win the triple crown as he wasn`t a worthy horse to carry on the legacy....Is this the same for smarty? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | The beauty of the Triple Crown is that there are no free passes. If you do it, you're worthy. I didn't think Funny Cide would, and he didn't. I thought he ran against a hurt Empire Maker in the Derby and against a bad, nonb-performing field in the Preakness. But any horse who can actually win all three, my hat is off. |
| smartyfan: | Q: Can Lion Heart beat Smarty? |
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| STEVEN_CRIST: | Horses like Lion Heart are horrible for matchup bet purposes. If he gets cooked, there's no limit to how far back he can finish whereas a horse with a more sensible running style is likelier to hang on. |
| shadow: | Q: was your derby picks that bad because of the track or did you miss that bad |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I don't think any of my Derby horses ran their best race but there's no guarantee the result would have been different if they had. |
| geeker: | Q: Do you think Andy Beyer will ever pick a Preakness winner? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | When Andy does pick one, he scores out enough that he can lose another 20 and still be ahead |
| letsgosmarty: | Q: Who did you like in the derby and why? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I love -- LOVE -- a cold Smarty Jones-Lion Heart-Imperialism-Limehouse superfecta. Bet it cold! |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | But seriously.... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I used The Cliff's Edge, Tapit, Read the Footnotes Birdstone and Master David and ran 5-7-8-9-12 |
| rock_hard_ben: | Q: In a season of surprises will tomorrow be a shock when LMM wins? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I would be shocked. |
| tom41: | Q: How about all the noise Kent D. is making about Impy? Think Impy can win it? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I don't recommend listening to jockeys' opinions. They're seeing the race from the back of one horse. He thinks that because he had trouble and closed some ground he's a cinch next time. I think he ran past staggering horses and the mud helped. |
| betting_bill: | Q: Steven --- I cannot use Eddington because of the weak Wood performances of Tapit and Master David. What are your thoughts? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I think it's premature to call the Wood a negative key race. Because of the slop, Tapit and Master david din't run six inches on Derby Day. The jury's still out on the Wood. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | We have time for one or two more. |
| tomspud: | Q: at what 1/2 mile split time does the front end horses become vulnerable? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | That really depends on what they do to the track overnight. Today 47 would have been quick. |
| auburn107: | Q: Just for fun, what is the official drink of the Preakness? we all need one after this 3 y.o. season! |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | It's something disgusting called a Black-Eyed Susan. I had one once and I don't want to know what was in it. |
| scottbrooklyn: | Q: Going into the Preakness and seeing what Smarty Jones has already acomplished, how are you prepared to rank him on an All Time list? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | It's way premature to mention him on any such list. He has a lot more to prove. He's undefeated but in some ways has accomplished less than many previous Derby winners, and his only Grade 1 victory came on a very sloppy track. He hasn't done anything wrong but he has a long way to go. |
| qwerty_uiop: | Q: I`m not going to bet anything and just watch. Sure seems like a poor group of 3 year olds overall this year. What do you think? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Just watch? What fun is that? We're here to gamble! |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | On that note, thank you all for coming and good luck tomorrow! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Preakness 129! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | We will be posting a transcript of tonight's chat later tonight in the DRF.com Preakness section. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Check out Youbet.com's Fan Appreciation Week and cash contest. Youbet.com - The Best of All! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Be sure to check out Brad Free's new book, Handicapping 101. It's on sale now online in the DRF Press bookstore. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | In the words of the great Stanley Bergstein, good night all. |
