Kentucky Derby Graded Prep Recaps

Dan Illman's Prep Recap Lexington Stakes Toyota Blue Grass Stakes Arkansas Derby Illinois Derby UAE Derby Santa Anita Derby Wood Memorial Kentucky Derby Challenge Swale Stakes Florida Derby Lane’s End Stakes Tampa Bay Derby Louisiana Derby Rebel Stakes San Felipe Stakes Gotham Stakes Fountain of Youth Stakes Sham Stakes Sam F. Davis Stakes Southwest Stakes San Vicente Stakes El Camino Real Derby UAE 2000 Guineas Risen Star Stakes Robert B. Lewis Stakes Holy Bull Stakes Hutcheson Stakes San Rafael Stakes Lecomte Stakes

Lexington Stakes

By Dan Illman - Posted 4/24/09

Trip Summary: The “Last Chance Derby” for horses lacking the graded earnings necessary for a berth in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May, the Lexington Stakes has produced several Classic winners since its inception in 1984. Swale (second, 1984, Risen Star (first, 1988), Hansel (first, 1988), Touch Gold (first, 1997), and Charismatic (first, 1999) all went on to bigger and better things during the Triple Crown series.

The story of this race revolved around the return of SQUARE EDDIE. Last year’s winner of the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity over the Keeneland Polytrack, and one of the leading Kentucky Derby hopefuls earlier in the spring, Square Eddie was making his first start since suffering a stress fracture to his left front cannon bone. Many pundits were critical of Square Eddie’s connections for seemingly rushing their colt back into the Derby picture, but the Keeneland faithful, enamored with Square Eddie’s gaudy speed figures and company lines, pounded him down to favoritism nonetheless.

Square Eddie ran well in defeat, but the $186,000 winning purse money was distributed to ADVICE, a Todd Pletcher-trained colt that was merely a Derby afterthought before the Lexington. A winner of his career debut over Arlington Park’s Polytrack, Advice was placed third in the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Futurity after causing interference in the stretch, and then didn’t make much of an impression in four subsequent starts. Advice’s Lexington success can be attributed most directly to the genius of Garrett Gomez, the defending Eclipse Award winner as champion jockey. Despite breaking from the far outside post, Gomez expertly steered Advice to the inside, and the pair lost no ground going into the clubhouse turn. Advice remained far back and on the rail until the quarter pole, where Gomez swung Advice into action. Advice found a seam in between horses, and burst on through to take the lead inside the furlong marker. He switched back to his wrong lead approaching the wire, and may not want much more distance.

”I thought it unfolded perfectly for him,” Pletcher was quoted as saying after the Lexington. “Garrett gave him a beautiful ride from the outside post, was able to tuck him back and save ground around the first turn…I thought he was still just a touch green when he made the lead…”

Advice now has enough graded earnings to advance to Louisville, but his owners, WinStar Farm, already have the more highly-regarded duo of Hold Me Back and Mr. Hot Stuff primed for the race. Gomez, on the other hand, didn’t even have Advice on his Derby radar despite the Grade 2 tally. He chose Pioneerof the Nile over Pletcher’s Dunkirk for this year’s Derby.

CONSERVATIVE ran a corker in his initial stakes race. The homebred raced in and among horses from the two path for most of the running before angling widest at the head of the stretch. He was bumped slightly by Advice as the pair began to rally, but kept on well to finish second. Trainer Shug McGaughey won’t rush this promising three-year-old, and Conservative can be expected to give a good account later this season.

The flaxen-tailed SQUARE EDDIE broke two lengths slow from the gate, but soon found a decent spot by his lonesome near the rear of the field. Entering the final turn, jockey Edgar Prado pushed the button, and Square Eddie’s response was immediate and breathtaking. He gobbled up ground while four wide, and poked his head in front turning into the straight. The poor start, and possible premature move, took its toll on Square Eddie, however. He was a bit late to switch leads, and tired in the final furlong.

”I’m extremely proud of his effort,” trainer Doug O’Neill was quoted as saying after the race.” He ran a dynamite race. Edgar said he was acting good in the gate, but was a little off balance when they sprung the gate, which caused him to hop awkwardly…With a clean break, I think he’s be right there.”

”We just didn’t get lucky today,” said Prado. “He broke a little flat footed, and I had to make a move and go wide because I didn’t want to wait for something to open up on the inside. He made a great run, and was trying really hard.”

Square Eddie indeed ran a classy race despite his soap opera season, but whether he’ll be ready to handle the rigors of the Kentucky Derby off only one recent prep race is extremely questionable.

Among the betting public, MASALA was the favored Pletcher-trained entrant. He was hustled up to push the pacesetter from the outside by jockey Edgar Prado, but couldn’t match strides with Square Eddie when that when swept by on the outside. Masala was bothered ever so slightly when Square Eddie weaved inward in upper stretch, but he continued his even rally after that incident, and galloped out well after the wire. Masala ran a decent race, but he’s been exposed at the highest class levels. There are probably races for him at the listed to Grade 3 ranks.

PITCHED PERFECTLY was making his first start since being purchased privately by Lael Stables, the owners of the ill-fated Kentucky Derby king, Barbaro. Taking advantage of the dearth of early speed on paper, jockey Alan Garcia placed Pitched Perfectly on the front end. The pace was moderate, but Pitched Perfectly felt pressure throughout. He was no match for the closers, and switched leads several times in the final quarter mile.

JERANIMO saved ground throughout, was in behind the tiring pacesetter turning for home, and finished evenly.

BRAVE VICTORY tracked the pace while in between horses, backed up after six furlongs, and was floated to the far outside turning for home. He switched back to his wrong lead when under pressure. It’s possible he didn’t handle the synthetic surface, but this was a rather disappointing performance.

PARADE CLOWN tracked the leaders while four wide throughout. He finished evenly, and can win some races on synthetic surfaces against weaker company.

OMNISCIENT saved ground in the pocket position, eased three wide turning for home, and lacked a strong rally.

EL CRESPO lost significant ground by racing four wide throughout, but was still neck and neck with Square Eddie turning for home. His last quarter mile was ugly as he was late to switch leads, and was flashing his tail. He should do better with a return to turf.

HIS GREATNESS finished third in the weak Illinois Derby, and did little to flatter that form. He stalked the pace while three wide and in between horses, and tired badly after five furlongs.

Grade:  C- ;
Advice must improve to win the Derby if his connections do decide to go. Square Eddie, despite giving a good performance, may have lost too much preparation time.

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Toyota Blue Grass Stakes

By Dan Illman - Posted 4/22/09

Trip Summary: A very important prep race from a historical perspective, the Blue Grass Stakes has produced 23 winners of the Kentucky Derby. Street Sense (second, 2007) became the first synthetic Blue Grass performer to wear the roses on the first Saturday in May. Recent Classic winners emerging from the Blue Grass include Louis Quatorze (second, 1996), Editor’s Note (third, 1996), Thunder Gulch (unplaced, 1995), Sea Hero (unplaced, 1993), Prairie Bayou (first, 1993), Strike the Gold (first, 1991), Summer Squall (first, 1990), Unbridled (third, 1990), and Alysheba (third, 1987).

This year’s renewal featured an evenly-matched group racing over a closer-friendly Polytrack racing surface. GENERAL QUARTERS, the Sam F. Davis winner on dirt at Tampa Bay Downs, rebounded from a fifth-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby to pull off the mild upset. Trained by Thomas McCarthy, General Quarters broke alertly and tracked the leaders while three and four wide and very eager. He turned up the heat on pacesetter JOIN IN THE DANCE midway on the final turn, took command in upper stretch, and looked pretty strong all the way to the wire.

“He trained like a champion all week,” McCarthy was quoted as saying after the Blue Grass. “After that breeze last week I knew I had him right where I wanted him. I think he exhibited the tenacity to go on to the Derby.”

“He was very professional,” jockey Eibar Coa was quoted as saying after the race. “He was pretty good. He broke sharp. He placed himself in a good position. In the straight, he gave me what he had. He showed up today, and he’s definitely going to be one of the horses to beat in the Derby.”

Despite Coa’s kind words, he soon decided to abandon General Quarters for the mount on Musket Man at Churchill Downs. General Quarters has a tendency to get rank in the early portion of his races, and must settle down better if he is to successfully navigate the 10 furlongs of the Derby.

HOLD ME BACK was only making his second start of 2009 after an impressive late surge to win the Lane’s End Stakes for his seasonal debut. Trained by Bill Mott, Hold Me Back appreciates synthetic surfaces, and he ran another good race on “faux” dirt. Hold Me Back has more gate speed than people give him credit for, and he stalked the early leaders while four wide heading into the backstretch. He switched off kindly for Kent Desormeaux, and rated in midpack before winding up a solid five wide bid on the final bend. Hold Me Back’s rally fell a bit short in the stretch, but it was an encouraging performance. He seems to be coming up to the big race the right way, but it’s a question mark as to whether he’ll perform as well on dirt.

“I think he’s been fine-tuned today,” Desormeaux was quoted as saying after the Blue Grass. “The next one is the one we shoot for. I would have liked to have won today, of course, but it was a very encouraging effort.”

MASSONE, a California invader, is another synthetic specialist that shipped East to run well in a Derby prep. Second to Chocolate Candy in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate, Massone was taken immediately to the inside by Garrett Gomez, and he saved ground going into the first turn. Gomez rushed Massone up to press the leader from the inside down the backstretch, and the pair cut the corner turning for home. Massone finished evenly without threatening. He might have moved a bit too soon to get into contention, but seemed to be beaten fair and square.

“We were worried about the slow pace, but Garrett rode him perfectly,” trainer Ron McAnally was quoted as saying after the race. “He is not nominated to the Triple Crown, so he will go back to California.”

TERRAIN found a very nice spot near the back of the pack for the backstretch run, and was able to save ground heading into the far turn. He angled wide turning for home, and finished evenly on the far outside. He’s unlikely for the Derby.

JOIN IN THE DANCE, the pacesetting runner-up of the Tampa Bay Derby, again bounded to the front. He led the way while slightly off the inside, but had no response when the winner began his rally at the quarter pole. He is on the bubble in terms of graded earnings.

”He ran well,” jockey John Velazquez was quoted as saying after the Blue Grass. “He was keyed up in the paddock a little bit and in the gate. Then he wouldn’t settle down in the early part of the race. He just didn’t run that well for me down the stretch.”

LOCH DUBH stalked the leaders from the outside, made a decent four wide bid on the far turn, and flattened out in the final sixteenth. He ran a solid race, and can contend in second-tier stakes races this year.

CHARITABLE MAN was ambitiously placed by his connections. This was his first start since suffering a saucer fracture as a juvenile, his first race around two turns, and his first try on a synthetic surface. It was all too much for the talented colt to overcome. He tracked the pace while four wide on the first turn before finding the rail late on the backstretch. Charitable Man attempted to follow Massone turning for home, but understandably flattened out in the final furlong. Considering the nature of his injury, he wasn’t disgraced, and can do better with more conditioning.

MAFAAZ had already earned a berth in the Kentucky Derby with his win in the controversial Kentucky Derby Challenge at Kempton, but his poor Blue Grass performance took him out of consideration. Like many European imports, Mafaaz broke poorly from the gate, and he soon found himself in and among horses while tracking the pace two and three wide. He stayed among traffic most of the way, but was one paced when called upon.

THEREGOESJOJO made a solid impression on dirt in South Florida over the winter, but didn’t seem to handle this track. He broke quickly, but seemed to bobble soon after the start. Theregoesjojo pressed Join in the Dance from the outside while three wide under Calvin Borel, and seemed in a lovely position on the final turn. He backed out of it after six furlongs, and was a bit late to change leads.

”The second jump away from there, Calvin said something locked up,” trainer Ken McPeek was quoted as saying after the race. “It was like he twisted something, and he said he did it in the second turn, too, like he pulled something in behind.”

Indeed, Theregoesjojo was diagnosed with a stifle injury after the race.

PATENA was hoping to improve off a disappointing run in his first start for the powerful IEAH conglomerate, but finished poorly once again. He tracked the leader from the rail on the first turn, but gave up the fence to MASSONE on the backstretch. He raced in the two path on the final turn, but gave no rally.

CLIFFY’S FUTURE, the winner of the ungraded Rushaway Stakes over Turfway Park’s polytrack surface, was hoping to confirm that form against better rivals, but never got on track while trailing throughout.

Grade:  C ;
General Quarters is a very likeable colt, but he may be a cut below the top Derby contenders. Hold Me Back is an intriguing longshot candidate, but he still must answer the dirt question.

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Arkansas Derby

By Dan Illman - Posted 4/20/09

Trip Summary: An extremely popular Triple Crown prep, The Arkansas Derby has produced such Classic winners as Temperence Hill (first, 1980), Sunny’s Halo (first, 1983), Caveat (second, 1983), Gate Dancer (third, 1984), Tank’s Prospect (first, 1985), Pine Bluff (first, 1992), Lil E. Tee (second, 1992), Grindstone (second, 1996), Victory Gallop (first, 1998), Smarty Jones (first, 2004), Afleet Alex (first, 2005), and Curlin (first, 2007).

PAPA CLEM became the latest Southern California transplant to improve his synthetic form on dirt but the major story coming out of this year’s Arkansas Derby was the career-ending injury suffered by race favorite OLD FASHIONED. The winner of the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct, and the Southwest Stakes earlier in the Oaklawn Meet, Old Fashioned, once the Winter Book favorite for the Kentucky Derby, emerged from the race with a non-displaced slab fracture to his right knee.

Papa Clem had previously done his best running when allowed to control the pace. With Old Fashioned in the lineup, Papa Clem’s rider, Rafael Bejarano, had to settle for a stalking spot. Papa Clem was expertly steered off the inside on the first turn and he stalked the pace from the three path all the way down the backstretch. Bejarano pushed the button on the far turn and Papa Clem smoothly made his way to the leading pack. He forged past Old Fashioned in upper stretch and ran straight through the wire in a solid and professional performance.

Old Fashioned showed his customary early speed under jockey Terry Thompson and he cleared to the front and the rail going into the first turn. The duo made an uncontested lead through some enervating fractions and Old Fashioned spurted clear once again entering the final bend. Thomson seemed confident on Old Fashioned as the field turned for home and the gray colt battled gamely along the inside through the lane. He couldn't fend off Papa Clem's outside surge but Old Fashioned gave a courageous performance considering his injury may have occurred during the race. He will have surgery and hopefully will be fit enough for stud duty in 2010.

SUMMER BIRD, a maiden winner earlier in the Oaklawn meet, broke slowly and raced far back for the opening half-mile. He was taken to the outside late on the backstretch before beginning a solid three wide rally entering the far turn. Summer Bird was a bit late to change leads in the stretch, but finished with interest, and galloped out with gusto. Summer Bird is very light on experience with only three lifetime starts to his credit. He may be the type that continues to improve with added maturity. A son of Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone from the family of NYRA Mile winner Rubiano, and crack sprinter Glitterman, Summer Bird may be a three-year-old to watch later in the summer.

WIN WILLY, the upset winner of the Rebel Stakes, was out to prove that he was more than a one-hit wonder and he wasn't disgraced in a losing performance. The late-runner raced in the two path near the rear of the field, but was shuffled from between horses entering the turn and ended up behind Summer Bird, a horse that Win Willy was leading by several lengths during the backstretch run. Win Willy then followed Summer Bird from the three path on the far turn, and finished evenly for fourth. He will be an outsider in the Kentucky Derby, but there will be worse longshots to back in Louisville.

FLYING PRIVATE, stakes-placed in his two appearances prior to the Arkansas Derby, raced a bit wide going into the clubhouse turn, but soon found an excellent spot in midpack under jockey Israel Ocampo. Instead of following Papa Clem, Ocampo decided to find a seam to the inside of that rival while in between horses entering the far turn. It didn't work out as ZIEGFELD stopped in Flying Private's tracks, and Flying Private was shuffled back severely. He regained his momentum to split horses entering the turn, and finished evenly. Flying Private is better than this fifth-place performance, but it may not be good enough to upset the apple cart in the Kentucky Derby.

FLAT OUT won the Smarty Jones Stakes earlier in the meet, but had missed the Rebel due to a bruised right front heel, and this was his first start since the injury. He broke sweetly and settled into the pace-tracking, ground-saving pocket position behind the pacesetter. He went after Old Fashioned from the two path on the far turn, but didn't switch leads until the furlong marker, and was out of gas in the stretch. He can improve off this effort against weaker competition.

POLTERGEIST had previously finished a well-beaten third in the Rebel, and was exposed at this level. The gray saved every inch of ground but failed to muster a strong late rally.

CAPTAIN CHEROKEE, a half-brother to two-time Breeders' Cup Sprint champion Midnight Lute, saved ground in midpack under Aaron Gryder, and the pair advanced willingly along the inside on the far turn. They cut the corner turning into the homestretch, but Captain Cherokee tired very badly in the final furlong.

DANGER TO SOCIETY, the beaten favorite in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream, tracked the pace while three wide, but had nothing left after six furlongs. This was his first start for trainer Richard Dutrow Jr., and the race was somewhat of a letdown.

ZIEGFELD, the second-place finisher of the ungraded Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park, tracked the hot pace while in between horses but stopped badly after five furlongs, and was distanced.

Grade:  C +;
Papa Clem showed a new dimension by rating behind horses and it worked out beautifully. Win Willy may be worth a look in the Derby at generous odds while Summer Bird and Flying Private both have some potential for better down the road.

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Illinois Derby

By Dan Illman - Posted 4/14/09

Trip Summary:  The Illinois Derby, while rich in all-important graded earnings, has not been a very strong Triple Crown prep.  With the exception of Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner War Emblem (first, 2002), the Illinois Derby usually produces second-tier three-year-olds like Cowtown Cat (first, 2007), Greeley’s Galaxy (first, 2005), Pollard’s Vision (first, 2004), and Distilled (first, 2001). 

While this year’s winner, MUSKET MAN, is a perfectly likeable sort, he still has much to prove against the truly top dogs in the division.  The winner of the Tampa Bay Derby in his previous start, Musket Man has successfully outrun his miler pedigree, but it is still questionable whether he’ll handle ten furlongs on Kentucky Derby day.  Musket Man switched off nicely while stalking the leaders from in between and the Yonaguska colt patiently waited for jockey Eibar Coa’s cue entering the far turn.  At that point, Musket Man made a three wide bid and he struck the front in upper stretch.  Musket Man was never seriously threatened in the lane, but he hopped back onto his wrong lead three strides before the wire while looking a bit fatigued. 

GIANT OAK’s campaign has been plagued by excuses.  He had a miserable trip in the Risen Star Stakes, then missed some valuable training time prior to the Louisiana Derby.  In that race, he slogged through soggy conditions.  Trainer Chris Block hoped for better luck as he sent his Illinois-bred colt home for Hawthorne’s signature race.  While Giant Oak did run on well to be second best, he still displayed signs of immaturity.  Jockey Shaun Bridgmohan was intent on securing the inside going into the clubhouse turn, and he sent Giant Oak through a narrow opening to grab the pocket position.  Giant Oak saved ground for the majority of the race before angling out at the head of the stretch.  He finished evenly while weaving during the drive.  Giant Oak has talent, but he still doesn’t seem totally focused on the task at hand.  He’ll need to be at his best, both mentally and physically, if he is to contend in the Derby.

HIS GREATNESS, fresh off a seventh-place finish in the Rebel Stakes, broke running, but allowed the pacesetter, PERFECT SONG, to clear off to the inside.  Once maneuvered off the rail, His Greatness settled off the pacesetter’s hip while racing in the two path.  He put that one away turning for home, but had no response when the top two finishers rallied.  His Greatness was beaten a combined 44 ¼ lengths in his three previous graded efforts so his third-place finish may be seen as an indictment on the rest of the field.

NOWHERE TO HIDE lost eight lengths to Musket Man in the three weeks since the Tampa Bay Derby.  He broke a beat slowly from the inside post, and settled off the rail in midpack.  He looked like a beaten horse entering the far turn, but advanced a bit while saving ground into the stretch.  He angled out with a furlong remaining, but gave no late flurry.  He seemed to run in spots here, and must achieve greater consistency if he is to factor against top three-year-olds later this season.

IL POSTINO was making his first start after winning a $20,000 maiden claimer at Gulfstream Park, and looked completely overmatched on paper.  After being bumped at the start, Il Postino pulled jockey Jesse Campbell to the lead pack while four wide on the clubhouse turn, and remained well off the rail in stalking range.  He looked like a beaten horse on the turn, but re-rallied a bit while in between horses late while drifting in during the stretch drive.

FREE COUNTRY hadn’t moved forward since winning his maiden at this distance at Gulfstream Park in early January. He broke a bit awkwardly, and then settled at the back of the pack while off the rail.  He was far behind on the backstretch, but made a three wide bid entering the far turn, and was spun widest turning for home.  He finished evenly without threatening, and would be best served by a drop in class.

PERFECT SONG had won two of three starts in Maryland, but was trying two turns for the first time, and turned out to be the biggest disappointment in the race.  He cleared to the lead and the inside passing the wire for the first time, and set a pressured pace while saving ground.  He offered up little resistance when longshot His Greatness turned up the pace heat on the final turn, and was merely going up and down in the final furlong.

AL KHALI, an allowance winner at nine furlongs at Gulfstream, took some support for trainer Todd Pletcher.  A physically-imposing son of Medaglia d’Oro, Al Khali tracked the leaders while three wide, and was hard-ridden while tiring on the final turn.  This wasn’t a promising performance, but Al Khali looks like the sort that can improve with more maturity.

TOCCET ROCKET and KNIGHT SHOT were outclassed.

Grade:  C –
Trainer Derek Ryan has masterfully mapped out a prep campaign for Musket Man, but he has yet to face truly top competition, and I don’t think he’ll stay ten furlongs.  Giant Oak is still extremely green.  The others don’t look like Triple Crown contenders.

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UAE Derby

By Dan Illman - Posted 4/14/09

Trip Summary:    A race meant to showcase Godolphin-owned three-year-olds with Triple Crown dreams, the UAE Derby has yet to create a true Kentucky Derby contender, and this year’s running produced a shocking upset. 

REGAL RANSOM entered this season’s Dubai Racing Carnival as Godolphin’s fourth-string sophomore, ranked behind private purchases Midshipman and Vineyard Haven, and Sanford Stakes winner DESERT PARTY.  After Midshipman was injured, and Vineyard Haven went sour under the hot Dubai sun, Desert Party moved to the barn’s forefront with wins in the Ford Flex Trophy and UAE 2000 Guineas.  A $2.1M juvenile purchase, Desert Party handled Regal Ransom without much fuss in both of those races, and was expected to steamroll that opponent once again in the UAE Derby.  It was not to be.

Aided by a heady ride from Alan Garcia, and an inside, speed-favoring main track, REGAL RANSOM spoiled Sheikh Mohammed’s desert party with a pace-pressing score.  As usual, Regal Ransom broke well from the gate and Garcia secured the rail while battling for the lead with UAE Oaks winner So Shiny.  The filly dropped away as the field turned into the three-furlong long straight, but Regal Ransom kept on.  He held Desert Party’s late surge at bay, and was never passed by that rival during the gallop-out. 

Regal Ransom’s stamina was called into question before the race, but he stayed the nine furlongs well here although the moderate pace combined with the track profile may have helped him successfully navigate the trip.  If he is to attempt similar speed tactics at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Derby, he’ll likely have to go much faster in the early portion of the race.

Desert Party’s supporters couldn’t have been pleased by Frankie Dettori’s ride.  The odds-on favorite broke nicely under Dettori, and soon settled into a tracking position on the rail behind Regal Ransom.  Turning for home, Desert Party seemed to be moving sweetly, and Dettori confidently remained motionless on the favorite until just outside the two furlong marker.  At that point, he began scrubbing on Desert Party, and the Street Cry colt came up empty.  Desert Party slowly edged into Regal Ransom’s lead nearing the winning post, and one must wonder if he would have caught the leader with more aggressive handling earlier in the stretch.  Nonetheless, Desert Party was somewhat exposed as a grinding type.  He doesn’t have an explosive push-button gear, but he’ll try to wear his opponents down at Churchill Downs with a sustained rally.  Although beaten on this day, the consensus opinion among handicappers is that Desert Party remains the better Godolphin choice for the 2009 Kentucky Derby. 

Grade:  C –
Sheikh Mohammed has a one-two punch in Desert Party and Regal Ransom, but both will have to step up their games if they are to compete with some quality three-year-olds in the Kentucky Derby.

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Santa Anita Derby

By Dan Illman - Posted 4/8/09

Trip Summary: The definitive West Coast prep on the road to the Kentucky Derby, the Santa Anita Derby has produced such Classic winners as Triple Crown champion Affirmed (first, 1978), Point Given (first, 2001), Real Quiet (first, 1998), Silver Charm (second, 1997), Tabasco Cat (second, 1994), A.P. Indy (first, 1992), Sunday Silence (first, 1989), Winning Colors (first, 1988), Snow Chief (first, 1986), Ferdinand (third, 1986), Codex (first, 1980), Avatar (first, 1975), Majestic Prince (first, 1969), Lucky Debonair (first, 1965), Candy Spots (first, 1963), Swaps (first, 1955), Determine (first, 1954, and Hill Gail (first, 1952).

This year’s Santa Anita Derby was expected to match Swaps and San Rafael winner The Pamplemousse with CashCall Futurity, Robert B. Lewis, and San Felipe hero PIONEEROF THE NILE. Pioneerof the Nile’s connections, concerned that The Pamplemousse would coast on an easy lead, entered Z Day to ensure a hot pace. It was a tactic that ultimately wasn’t necessary as The Pamplemousse was declared on the morning of the race with a tendon injury. He will miss the Triple Crown.

That left the consistent Pioneerof the Nile as the horse to beat, and he didn’t disappoint the fans that pounded him down to odds-on. Z Day was now not needed, and he also scratched, leaving a dearth of early pace. Pioneerof the Nile, showing some kidney sweat, was extremely eager coming out of the gate. He tracked the moderate first quarter from the outside, but jockey Garrett Gomez could wait no longer after three furlongs.

"With all the scratches, it jeopardized the pace for us," Gomez was quoted as saying after the Santa Anita Derby. "It wasn't the way we were really trying to get it done today. He was okay for a while, but then as they kept slowing down in front of him, I tried to take hold of him and get him back a couple times. When they slowed down about the six and a half, I was going to have to slow him down too much."

Pioneerof the Nile pulled himself to the front with a three wide burst, pacesetter FEISTY SUANCES countered from the rail, and Pioneerof the Nile soon relaxed just outside that rival. He collared Feisty Suances turning for home, and kept to his business despite seeming to wait on horses and weaving in the stretch.

Despite having just piloted Pioneerof the Nile to his fourth straight graded victory, Gomez couldn't help but feel a bit disappointed.

"He's such a big-striding horse, he's in a comfortable rhythm if he's able to stretch his legs," said Gomez. "The bad part about him is that when he gets up there, he just kind of lollygags on me. He just makes me hesitant because I know he waits a little bit. It worked out for us. We're happy we won, and we'll go on to the next step. I feel it was a carbon copy of his last race, and we weren’t trying to accomplish that."

"Good horses can adapt to any situation," winning trainer Bob Baffert was quoted as saying after the Santa Anita Derby. "That's why he's a good horse. That's why he's won four in a row now. He's learning how to run, but the thing is, he's very competitive, and I felt really good about him."

His critics will point out that Pioneerof the Nile has never raced on dirt, and that his Beyer Speed Figures pale in comparison to those of the top East Coast contenders. But Pioneerof the Nile keeps on winning, and his pedigree is tailor-made for the Derby's 1 1/4 mile distance. He may actually go off an overlay in the Derby, and the likely quick pace at Churchill Downs would work to his favor.

CHOCOLATE CANDY was the scourge of the Northern California three-year-olds this winter with wins in the California Derby and El Camino Real Derby, but he previously finished a good third to Pioneerof the Nile and I Want Revenge in the CashCall Futurity. He proved that he belongs with the better horses of the division with a solid Santa Anita Derby run. He settled near the inside and the back of the pack entering the clubhouse turn but Joel Rosario, sensing that Chocolate Candy runs better outside of runners, eased his mount off the inside after three furlongs. The duo made a four wide bid on the far turn, and Chocolate Candy finished mildly for the place while drifting in slightly.

"My horse ran good," Rosario was quoted as saying after the Santa Anita Derby, "but the other horse is a more tactical horse. He was able to set a slow pace, so my horse was a little bit closer, and I don't think he finished like he can. I think when we have more pace in the race, he'll be okay. I think this should set him up well for the Kentucky Derby."

"He was real wide coming for home," Chocolate Candy's trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer, was quoted as saying after the Santa Anita Derby. "That was one problem, and the pace was slow. I have no excuse. I think he ran well enough to try the Derby."

MR. HOT STUFF, a full brother to 2008 Santa Anita Derby winner Colonel John, had previously shown a tendency to race very greenly. He broke a half-step slowly under jockey Corey Nakatani, and settled at the back of the pack while saving ground. Mr. Hot Stuff advanced along the inside entering the turn, and split rivals at the quarter pole, but was again late to change leads. He rallied mildly along the inside once he did switch over to his right lead.

"I knew they were going slow, so I didn't want to lose too much contact with them," Nakatani was quoted as saying after the race. "I started to make a move, and they all quickened around the far turn. I dropped back to the inside, gave him a little education, and he ran hard. He's just one of those Belmont-type horses, I think."

TAKE THE POINTS was expected to scratch but, with The Pamplemousse injured, trainer Todd Pletcher elected to run. There were fears that the gray would have trouble staying this nine-furlong trip, and he couldn't go with the top three late. Take the Points broke nicely, and pushed Feisty Suances from the two path, but was eased back a bit by jockey Alex Solis when Pioneerof the Nile made his early bid. Take the Points raced three wide going into the turn, but was very late to switch leads, and finished evenly without threatening.

Feisty Suances immediately went to the lead and the rail, and set a moderate first quarter fraction. He met the winner's first challenge on the backstretch, but could not withstand that one in upper stretch, and he looked like a tired horse under the wire.

UNBRIDLED ROMAN tracked the pace along the inside while under a good hold, and was outkicked when the real running began. He galloped out pretty well, and can do better with a drop in class.

GALLANT SON broke a half-step slowly, and raced two wide from stalking range. He attempted to follow Pioneerof the Nile's early bid, raced three wide turning for home, and could not stay.

Grade:  B-
The winner keeps on trucking, and the runner-up seems to be improving with every start. Whether they handle the dirt course at Churchill Downs is anyone's guess.

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Wood Memorial Stakes

By Dan Illman - Posted 4/8/09

Trip Summary: Some of racing’s all-time greats have won the historic Wood Memorial. Among them are such legendary figures as Gallant Fox (1930), Count Fleet (1943), Assault (1946), Native Dancer (1954), Nashua (1955), Bold Ruler (1957), and Damascus (1967). Triple Crown winners Secretariat (third, 1973), and Seattle Slew (first, 1977) completed their final preparations for the Kentucky Derby here while Classic winners Foolish Pleasure (first, 1975), Bold Forbes (first, 1976), Genuine Risk (third, 1980), Pleasant Colony (first, 1981), Easy Goer (first, 1989), Go for Gin (second, 1994), Fusaichi Pegasus (first, 2000), Red Bullet (second, 2000), Monarchos (second, 2001), Empire Maker (first, 2003), Funny Cide (second, 2003), and Jazil (second, 2006) all cut their teeth in this nine-furlong test.

I WANT REVENGE was a revelation in his dirt debut in the Gotham, and his Wood Memorial win will be talked about for many years to come. The odds-on favorite broke four lengths slowly, and then took up a position in the two path at the tail end of the field. His young jockey, Joe Talamo, split rivals late on the backstretch, but I Want Revenge ended up in and among horses until midstretch. At that point, I Want Revenge took a good bump from ATOMIC RAIN to his inside, and things were looking bleak. But Talamo found a seam from in between horses at the furlong marker, and I Want Revenge lengthened his stride, pulling away from the field without feeling the sting of the whip. Despite the trouble, Talamo was unconcerned. “At the break he kind of reared up a little bit,” Talamo was quoted as saying after the Wood Memorial. “But he actually had a great trip. He was on the rail the whole way, and got to save ground. Right down the stretch, I found an opening and he kicked down like a real nice horse. I thought today was a fairly easy race for him. To be honest, he only ran the last eighth of a mile, so I don’t think it took too much out of him. He just keeps getting better and better.”

“What he did today is pretty special,” winning trainer Jeff Mullins was quoted as saying after the Wood Memorial. “The plan is to try and ship to Churchill Downs Monday. He had every trouble you could have in a race, and still overcome it. It tells me he’s a pretty nice horse.”

I Want Revenge reportedly suffered some nicks after his troubled run, but otherwise checked out fine after the race. This was the type of “wow” performance that will have punters buzzing in the final weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby, and I Want Revenge will take plenty of mutuel action if he takes his place in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

WEST SIDE BERNIE didn’t run well over Turfway Park’s polytrack in the Lane’s End Stakes, and trainer Kelly Breen was taking a bit of a gamble wheeling his colt back in only two weeks time for the Wood Memorial. What Breen received was a much-improved performance from his Kentucky Derby hopeful. West Side Bernie raced in between horses from midpack under jockey Stewart Elliott, made a four wide bid under urging on the final turn, and finished evenly.

”When Stewart got clear and got the dirt out of his face at the top of the stretch, he really kicked in,” Breen was quoted as saying after the Wood Memorial. “If this horse comes out of the race good, then we’re all systems go.”

JUST A COINCIDENCE was stepping up in class for Nick Zito, and his backers shouldn’t be upset with the trip. Despite racing three wide around both turns, jockey John Velazquez found an excellent stalking spot down the backstretch run. Just a Coincidence poked his head in front in midstretch, but changed back to his wrong lead late, and couldn’t stay with the top two.

”My horse ran really, really well,” Velazquez was quoted as saying after the Wood Memorial. “He’s still a big baby. He’s a little behind everybody else. “He’s still very green, and everyone seems to be a little bit faster.”

Just a Coincidence isn’t ready for the big boys in the division, but he can improve as he matures.

ATOMIC RAIN had disappointed in his last few races, but he gave an improved performance in the Wood Memorial. He broke running under Joe Bravo, and assumed a pace-tracking, ground-saving position entering the backstretch. He remained bottled up into the stretch, bumped with the winner while searching for room, and finished evenly while in between horses. He had some traffic issues to deal with, and wasn’t disgraced. While not at the level of the top three-year-olds, Atomic Rain can move forward off this race.

IMPERIAL COUNCIL is a bit of a rogue, and he was extremely fractious in the paddock. He actually flipped onto his backside at one point, and was very unnerved during the preliminary proceedings. The Gotham runner-up raced three wide going into the clubhouse turn before settling off Atomic Rain’s flank while tracking the pacesetter from the two path. Jockey Edgar Prado had Imperial Council in contention turning for home, but the Empire Maker colt was simply flat when the real running began.

”Edgar said he was out of horse at the three-eighths pole,” trainer Shug McGaughey was quoted as saying after the Wood Memorial. “There’s no chance he’s going to the Kentucky Derby.”

CELLAR DWELLER was the rank outsider at 107-1 odds. He saved ground every step of the way while racing in midpack, and failed to pack a stretch punch when angled out in the lane.

LORD JUSTICE scratched from the Illinois Derby for this spot, and he broke running in the Wood Memorial. Lord Justice made an easy lead, setting reasonable opening fractions of 24.50 and 48.13, and he took the field to the quarter-pole before faltering badly in the final eighth of a mile.

LIME RICKEY, a turf specialist, was making his first start on dirt. After stumbling at the start, Lime Rickey raced three wide near the back of the pack entering the backstretch, and was four wide on the far turn. He had no response from two furlongs out. He belongs back on the grass.

Grade:  A
A wonderful performance from I Want Revenge as he overcame a disastrous start, and a traffic-filled trip. West Side Bernie ran a solid race, but will need to improve if he is to best the top one in Kentucky.

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Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes

By Dan Illman - Posted 4/2/09

Trip Summary: A controversial choice for the proverbial "golden ticket" to the Kentucky Derby with the winner receiving an automatic berth in the starting gate at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.  Not only is this race not graded, but it was contested over a right-handed synthetic course in England, and it arguably drew a substandard group. 

Trainer John Gosden made his mark on the 2008 Breeders' Cup with victories from Raven's Pass and Donativum, and he'll prepare for another U. S. invasion with the lightly-raced MAFAAZ. 

A half-brother to Gweebarra, a Group 3-placed sprinter at two, Mafaaz sold for 230,000 guineas as a weanling before being resold for 400,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Yearling Sale in October of 2007.  Mafaaz was a course winner in his career debut in September, showing off a prolonged rally to reel in the pacesetter in the shadow of the wire.  He finished just ahead of Evasive in that race, and that Elusive Quality colt returned to win two straight including the Group 3 Mountgrange Stud Stakes at Newbury.

After an even fifth behind Donativum in the rich Tattersalls Timeform Million on grass, Gosden put Mafaaz away for the winter, and he was making his first start as a three-year-old in the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes.

Wearing blinkers for the first time, Mafaaz ran an American-style race.  He was in tight soon coming out of the gate, and was racing in between horses in the early portion.  Sensing the slow pace set by SOHCOHTOA, jockey Richard Hills sent Mafaaz up from midpack with an early three wide sweep, and Mafaaz soon found himself just off the leaders while uncovered.  Hills sat chilly to the two furlong marker, didn't really get busy on his mount until the furlong grounds, and Mafaaz just overcame Sohcohtoa while changing leads right on the wire.

By Mediean, a multiple Group 1 winner at a mile that was able to successfully stretch his speed ten furlongs in the Group 1 Coral Eclipse Stakes at Sandown, Mafaaz should have enough pedigree to handle the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles, but he would have been overcome by the furious stretch run of SPRING OF FAME in another jump, and his relative inexperience may work against him if he is to start at Churchill Downs. 

The plan right now is for Gosden to give his charge one more prep in the Blue Grass Stakes over the Keeneland Polytrack.

Grade:  D+
A solid performance by the winner, but it's unlikely we'll see the others anytime soon, and the form may be muddied by the surface.  The Blue Grass will tell us more about Mafaaz's Derby chances.

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Swale Stakes

By Dan Illman - Posted 4/1/09

Trip Summary: Although the Swale has produced Classic winners like Crème Fraiche (second, 1985), Easy Goer (first, 1989), Summer Squall (second, 1990), and Cherokee Run (third, 1993), it is a race known more for producing sprinters and milers than true distance runners.

BIG DRAMA, unraced since winning last year’s Delta Jackpot due to various physical ailments, showed his heart and class by turning back THIS ONES FOR PHIL in the final eighth of a mile. Although first under the finish line, Big Drama’s rider, Eibar Coa, allowed his mount to drift out in the final sixteenth, and Big Drama bumped This Ones for Phil twice in the stretch. After a brief discussion, the stewards reprimanded Big Drama, and placed him second for causing the interference.

Big Drama broke sweetly from his outside post position, and Coa wisely sent him to the front and the rail after two furlongs when no other rider wanted the lead. The Gulfstream Park main track favored speed runners on this day, and Big Drama held an advantage once he cleared off to the front. After rating Big Drama through a moderate first quarter fraction, Coa sped his mount through a second quarter in 22.16. This Ones for Phil came to Big Drama’s flank in upper stretch, and may have even poked a nose in front for an instant, but Big Drama came roaring back to get the nod in track record time. In midstretch, Big Drama came out and lightly bumped This Ones for Phil, but the two horses soon separated. At this point, Coa should have switched his whip to his right hand in order to correct Big Drama, but Coa continued to work left-handed, and Big Drama came out to bump his foe again in the shadow of the wire.

The disqualification was somewhat controversial as it seemed unlikely that This Ones for Phil was going to win, but Coa’s ride was somewhat reckless, and a punishment was justified.

Big Drama reportedly bent a shoe and grabbed a quarter while winning the Delta Jackpot, then required surgery earlier this year after bruising a bone in his left hind shin. That he was able to run so well off the layoff is not only a testament to the horse’s courage, but to the patience and skill of his trainer, David Fawkes. It must also be noted that Big Drama never allowed This Ones for Phil to pass him during the gallop-out after the race.

Although Big Drama has more than enough earnings to qualify him for a starting berth in the Kentucky Derby, Fawkes has decided to point for a less taxing spot for Big Drama’s next appearance.

This Ones for Phil missed some training time leading into the Swale due to a quarter crack issue, and he also reportedly injured a pastern after being cast in his stall. He earned a whopping 116 Beyer Speed Figure in the Sunshine Millions Dash while making his first start for Richard Dutrow Jr., then was no match for Quality Road in the Fountain of Youth. The combination of a turn back in distance and a drop in class worked to This Ones for Phil’s favor, and he ran well under Garrett Gomez. This Ones for Phil broke well from the inside, but Gomez seemed disinterested in making the lead. Once he realized that the pace was moderate, Gomez angled This Ones for Phil into the two path, and the pair went after Big Drama entering the turn. This Ones for Phil was narrowly in front during the early portion of the stretch drive, but couldn’t go past. It is debatable whether the interference cost him the win, but he certainly ran a solid race.

CUSTOM FOR CARLOS was making his first start against winners after a fast maiden tally, and he broke on top under jockey Kent Desormeaux. Custom for Carlos wanted to go, but Desormeaux opted to rate, and the result was a rank horse for the first eighth of a mile. Desormeaux yielded the lead to the winner after two furlongs, and Custom for Carlos was placed in a tight spot tracking the leaders while down on the rail. Custom for Carlos angled three wide on the final turn, but faltered in the last eighth of a mile, and didn’t gallop out very well. The ride was questionable, but Custom for Carlos may need a bit more seasoning before he is ready to tackle graded competition.

BRAVE VICTORY stalked the pace in the two path, was outsprinted on the turn, and passed tired horses late. He was racing against the perceived bias, but didn’t have much excuse. His gallop-out was promising, and it will be interesting to see if he stretches out in distance next time out.

SABI SABI tracked the pace from the three path, was beaten on the turn, and was very late to change leads. This wasn’t a promising effort.

B Z WARRIOR didn’t break with much interest, and he stalked the pace while on the rail near the back of the pack. He was beaten after a half-mile, and never picked up his hooves.

Grade:  D
While this year’s renewal produced a thrilling stretch drive, it is unlikely to produce a Kentucky Derby starter. Big Drama may be an intriguing candidate to stretch out later in the year.

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Lane’s End Stakes

By Dan Illman - Posted 3/26/09

Trip Summary:  The Lane’s End was a popular prep in the early 1990’s with Preakness winners Summer Squall (first, 1990), Hansel (first, 1991), and Prairie Bayou (first, 1993) moving on to glory in the Triple Crown series.  The 1992 Kentucky Derby winner, Lil E. Tee, won the Lane’s End as one of his tune-up races.  Since then, the race has produced some promising runners, but the top three finishers since Prairie Bayou’s year have failed to score a single victory in the Classics.  Also, the Lane’s End is run on Polytrack, and that may blur the form as the horses switch to dirt at Churchill Downs.

HOLD ME BACK’s victory is a testament to the genius of trainer Bill Mott, who had kept his Giant’s Causeway colt in the barn since finishing a well-beaten fifth to Old Fashioned in the Remsen Stakes on November 29.  The Remsen was Hold Me Back’s only career defeat as the dark bay had previously won two races on synthetic surfaces, and he certainly appreciated returning to Polytrack for the Lane’s End.

Hold Me Back brushed the side of the gate at the start, and was rank at the tail end of the field while saving ground going into the first turn.  Jockey Kent Desormeaux eased his mount off the inside after five furlongs, and Hold Me Back began a three wide bid from in between horses entering the far turn.  The winner was four wide turning for home, and put in a determined stretch run to prevail by a widening length and three-quarters. 

”I thought I was hopelessly beaten the second the doors opened,” Desormeaux was quoted as saying after the Lane’s End.  “He just stood there, and it worked out really well in the end because closers perform so much better on it (Polytrack).

FLYING PRIVATE, a son of Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus, had previously earned blacktype with a runner-up performance on dirt in the six-furlong Mountain Valley Stakes at Oaklawn Park.  Trained by the legendary Wayne Lukas, Flying Private stalked the pace from the outside going into the first turn, and then was three and four wide on the final turn.  He failed to contain the favorite in the stretch while looking fatigued, and was late to change leads on both the backstretch, and in the home straight.  “I got a perfect trip,” jockey Israel Ocampo was quoted as saying after the Lane’s End.  “I settled down exactly where I wanted to be down the backside.  For a second, I thought I was going to get the job done, but that other horse came flying.”

Flying Private seems to be improving, but there are things he can do better, and he’ll need to move forward a great deal if he is to be considered a serious Derby threat. 

PROCEED BEE came into the race with a perfect 2-2 record over synthetics including a score in the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway on February 28.  He broke running from his far outside gate, and soon found himself tracking the lone pacesetter on the backstretch.  Proceed Bee made a three wide bid into contention on the far turn, but seemed to be getting out, and had to be corrected by Rodney Prescott’s right-handed whip.  Proceed Bee finished evenly for third money, but drifted out noticeably in the final furlong, and may have found this distance too much for him. 

”We really didn’t want to be up that close,” trainer Terry Gestes was quoted as saying after the Lane’s End.  “We just wanted to get a good position, but it seemed like nobody was sending.  Everybody took back at the start, so that put us real close to the lead.  It seemed like that were running off the pace a little stronger.”

PARADE CLOWN, the Battaglia runner-up, again failed to outfinish Proceed Bee.  He broke sharply under Eibar Coa, but was rated to track the leaders from the inside.  Parade Clown bulled his way to the two path to commence his rally in tandem with Proceed Bee, but failed to finish with that foe while nearest the rail.  He was a bit early with his final lead change coming out of the far turn, and doesn’t have the most attractive action.

Horses with good turf form usually run well on synthetics, and JACK SPRATT, the winner of the Dania Beach on grass at Gulfstream, improved on his disastrous dirt run in the Fountain of Youth.  Jack Spratt raced in midpack while in between rivals, but was late to change leads, and failed to threaten.  His lead changes looked uncomfortable throughout, and he was lathered up on his neck.  He needs a switch back to turf.

WEST SIDE BERNIE won the Kentucky Cup Juvenile over this track last year, and was expected to move forward off his third-place finish in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park.  Like many South Florida exports this season, he disappointed greatly.  Saving ground throughout under Edgar Prado, West Side Bernie never mounted a threat, and this performance has to be considered a giant step backward for a “bubble” Derby contender.

BRUCE N AUTUMN and A. P. CARDINAL are two horses that have been placed in tough spots, and both need class relief in a hurry.  The former broke a bit awkwardly, and then made an early move while racing well wide.  He continued to lose ground through the turn, and finished evenly.  A. P. Cardinal was taken in hand coming out of the gate, and seemed to be climbing over the synthetic surface.

LOCH DUBH showed a good amount of kidney sweat going into the gate, and was immediately rated to the rear of the field.  He saved ground until the final turn, angled extremely wide into the stretch, and failed to muster a serious rally.

BITTEL ROAD took money based on his previous tries against graded competition in Southern California, and this was his chance to make a name in the division against some suspect competition.  He fumbled the chance after saving ground near the back of the pack.  Garrett Gomez angled his mount to the outside turning for home, but Bittel Road raced on his wrong lead in early stretch, and never fired a shot.

Both of ORTHODOX’s prior wins came on turf, and the speedy son of Pulpit went right to the front under Jesus Castanon.  He made his own uncontested pace, and willingly gave way after six furlongs.

DYNAMITE BOB raced wide throughout, and was simply overmatched.

Grade:  C-
Hold Me Back acts like he won’t mind the added furlong of the Kentucky Derby, but he has yet to prove himself on dirt.  The others seem like second-string three-year-olds.

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Tampa Bay Derby

By Dan Illman - Posted 3/23/09

Trip Summary: The Tampa Bay Derby has increased in stature in recent years due to the need for graded earnings, but Street Sense (first, 2007) is the only classic winner to finish in the top three since the race’s inception in 1981.

There were several compelling stories leading up to this year’s Tampa Bay Derby. HELLO BROADWAY, a half-brother to Grade 1 winner Nobiz Like Shobiz, was trying two turns for the first time after finishing second in the Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park. GENERAL QUARTERS, the upset winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, was out to prove he was more than a one-hit wonder. NOWHERE TO HIDE opted for this race instead of the Louisiana Derby in an attempt to put trainer Nick Zito back on the Derby trail.

In the end, it was MUSKET MAN, the third-place finisher of the Sam F. Davis, upsetting the apple cart in a race that came back the slowest on the Beyer scale since Gadzook’s win in the 1995 edition. Musket Man began his career with three straight wins, but his streak was snapped when going two turns for the first time in the Sam F. Davis, and there were questions regarding his stamina.

Credit should be given to Musket Man for showing resolve despite being bottled up in traffic most of the way.  He tracked the pace while in and among horses in the two and three paths, had to wait for some room while four wide on the turn, and split horses four wide turning for home.  He kicked in during the final eighth of a mile, and was just up in the shadow of the wire. 

“They told me this guy tends to be a little lazy, and to stay after him when I set him down,” winning jockey Daniel Centeno was quoted as saying after the Tampa Bay Derby.  “I got in behind a bunch of horses early, and he didn't like it, but I was able to ease him out behind them getting to the turn.  I went after him, and let him know I wanted his run, and he changed leads in mid stretch, and just sort of took off for me. He sure wasn't lazy at the end.”

Musket Man will now have to tackle the leaders of the division.  By Grade 1 sprint winner Yonaguska out of the stakes-placed sprinter Fortuesque, this distance may be Musket Man’s limit although he certainly can win his share against second-tier performers. 

JOIN IN THE DANCE chased Imperial Council, the next-out runner-up of the Gotham Stakes, in his first start of 2009, and he ran a game  race in his first start around two turns.  A bit eager going into the clubhouse turn, Join in the Dance was prominent throughout, first pressing longshot pacesetter PERFECT BULL from the two path.  He turned up the heat on that foe on the backstretch, put him away entering the turn, then turned back a pair of challenges before opening up an advantage in midstretch.  He got leg-weary in the final sixteenth, but showed a good deal of grit in dropping the narrow decision.  He seems like a useful type that may find top-level three-year-olds a bit too tough as the distances increase.  Still, there should be some nice races for him down the road. 

JUSTDONTCALLMEJERI, claimed for $32,000 in Southern California last year, shipped in with only a maiden win on Pro-Ride to his credit.  He broke from the far outside post under Jesus Rios, and was spun four wide going into the first turn.  Justdontcallmejeri lost ground throughout while tracking the pace four wide, but still made a smooth move to engage the frontrunners on the far turn.  He was in contention turning for home, but was laboring in the final furlong, and he changed back to his wrong lead in the final sixteenth of a mile.  This was a grueling effort, and it will be interesting to see if he regresses in his next start.

NOWHERE TO HIDE finished fourth in the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds on February 7, but was scratched out of the Louisiana Derby when he drew the far outside post position.  He saved ground while trailing the field going into the first turn, was eased out on the backstretch by jockey Alan Garcia, and made a five wide bid on the final bend.  He was fanned widest in the stretch, and finished with some interest.  He should continue to run solid races at this level.

GENERAL QUARTERS seemed a bit rank entering the first turn when steadied in between horses near the rear of the field.  He moved closer to the rail on the backstretch, and finished evenly while in between horses without threatening the top ones.  Although he earned a big Beyer Speed Figure in winning the Sam F. Davis, he did so with the help of a perfect trip, and regressed when confronted with some adversity here. 

BEAR’S ROCKET was a game second in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream when allowed to set the pace, but he failed to make the front in the Tampa Bay Derby.  He was hustled out of the gate, and settled for a tracking position while three wide.  Bear’s Rocket continued to push the pace while three wide, and made his bid on the final turn.  He was rebuffed by Join in the Dance at the quarter pole, however, and tired while drifting in during the drive.  He may be more of a miler at this stage of the game, and has been inconsistent throughout his career.

HELLO BROADWAY raced three and four wide while in midpack, began a five wide bid entering the final turn, and tired badly in the stretch.  Although he lost ground throughout, this has to be considered another in a string of disappointing performances from three-year-olds that had previously raced in South Florida. 

WARRIOR’S REWARD, second to the highly-regarded Dunkirk in his previous start at Gulfstream, broke a bit slowly in his stakes debut, and was immediately taken to the rail.  He saved ground down the backstretch, eased into the two and three paths entering the final turn, and steadily retreated when the real running began. 

SUMO, the Sam F. Davis runner-up, was another disappointment.  He raced in the two path in midpack entering the backstretch, and found the ground-saving pocket position after four furlongs.  He split rivals on the far turn, but never menaced while racing down on the rail in the stretch.

PERFECT BULL, dismissed at odds of 135-1, gunned to the front from his inside post, set a pressured pace while racing near the rail, and tired on the final turn.

Grade: C-
The top two finishers made a nice impression visually, but the race came back slow, and they must prove themselves against tougher competition.  The mediocre performances of Bear’s Rocket, Hello Broadway, and Sumo likely took them out of Triple Crown consideration.

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Louisiana Derby

By Dan Illman - Posted 3/20/09

Trip Summary: The Louisiana Derby dates back to 1894, but it hasn’t been the strongest Triple Crown prep in recent years. Among the runners that have used this race as a springboard to bigger and better things are Classic winners Crème Fraiche (second, 1985), Risen Star (first, 1988), Grindstone (first, 1996), and Funny Cide (second, 2003).

The consistent FRIESAN FIRE has used his Funny Cide-like tactical speed to thoroughly dominate the deep crop of three-year-olds at the Fair Grounds this winter, and the Louisiana Derby was the culmination of an impressive local hat trick that included the Lecomte Stakes on January 10 and the Risen Star Stakes on February 7.

Breaking from the far outside post over the sealed, sloppy track, Friesan Fire was bumped coming out of the gate, but soon found himself in his usual pace-tracking position under Gabriel Saez. Friesan Fire seemed a bit eager for the first two furlongs of the Risen Star, but seemed much more settled this time around, and he parked himself off pacesetter Papa Clem while two and three paths off the rail. Friesan Fire took over willingly from the early leader on the final turn, and Saez was still looking for competition at the eighth pole. A sixteenth of a mile later, Saez allowed Friesan Fire to run, and he opened up on the field despite drifting out just a tad in the last seventy yards.

”I got him right behind the leaders,” Saez was quoted as saying after the Louisiana Derby. “He was very relaxed. When I made my move, he just exploded. I think he keeps getting better.”

Friesan Fire has already raced three times this year, and his connections will now decide whether to utilize the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 11 as the final prep for the Kentucky Derby. It is just as possible that they will merely train Friesan Fire up to the first jewel of racing’s Triple Crown.

His critics will note that Friesan Fire turned into a different runner at the Fair Grounds, will question whether he is merely a “horse-for-course,” and will use the wet conditions as excuses for his vanquished opponents. He has yet to prove his mettle at nine furlongs, but usually receives positive trips due to his excellent tactical speed. His stakes races this winter have all been very good, and he must be considered a major threat to grab the roses on the first Saturday in May.

PAPA CLEM was making his first start on dirt after a Southern California campaign, and he seemed to handle the new experiences just fine. He broke outward, bumping lightly with Friesan Fire, but soon scampered to the lead, and carved out the fractions under Rafael Bejarano while slightly off the rail. He failed to contain Friesan Fire turning for home, but gamely held the place while drifting out in the drive. He showed a great amount of heart in the stretch, but may be more of a miler at this point of his career. “He tried really hard,” Bejarano was quoted after the race. “I thought he was very comfortable. I am very pleased with his progression, and I think he liked the surface.”

TERRAIN was making his first start of the year after reportedly coming down with an illness since a fifth-place finish in the Delta Jackpot on December 5. The gelding seemed very keen for the first three furlongs while racing in between rivals, but settled down and found the inside on the backstretch. He angled out turning for home, was stopped briefly by a tiring PATENA, and rallied evenly for third.

Trainer Al Stall Jr. was pleased with Terrain’s performance. “It was a great comeback race,” Stall was quoted as saying after the Louisiana Derby. “We’re the only horse who closed into a slow pace. We were really happy with the comeback.”

Terrain should move forward off this outing, but there are some questions about his true quality.

GIANT OAK missed three days worth of training due to a mouth injury, and was also hampered by a temperature prior to the race. Considering his tough trip in the Risen Star, he was surprisingly cold on the tote at 8-1. The strapping colt raced three wide going into the first turn before settling into a decent spot at the back of the field. Giant Oak raced widest turning for home, but changed back to his wrong lead in midstretch, and never threatened the top three. It’s possible he was a short horse considering the missed training time, and the wet track may not have done him any favors, but he’s now long on excuses, and short on time as the Derby looms ever closer.

SOUL WARRIOR stalked the leaders while saving ground, and was eased three wide while in between rivals entering the final turn. He lacked a strong closing kick while drifting in slightly during the drive.

FLYING PEGASUS was making his second start following ankle surgery, and may not have cared for this wet surface. He broke beautifully under John Velazquez, but was rated back to track the leader from the pocket position. Flying Pegasus raced in between horses on the final turn, and didn’t have a response when called upon turning for home. He deserves another chance.

UNO MAS raced three wide in midpack, but wasn’t doing enough with three furlongs to run. Although well-beaten, he seemed a bit more professional than in prior outings.

PATENA was one of the big disappointments. A private purchase by the powerful IEAH conglomerate after finishing second in the Lecomte, Patena reportedly missed some time with a cough, but just didn’t have it today. He stalked the pace while two and three wide, made a brief three wide bid on the far turn, and tired badly in the stretch.

FREE COUNTRY saved all the ground after breaking from the inside post, made a premature bid along the inside, and flattened out badly. He was practically eased under the wire.

Grade:  B 
Friesan Fire continues to impress, but there were some notable disappointments behind him. Papa Clem still has some distance questions to answer.

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Rebel Stakes

By Dan Illman - Posted 3/19/09

Trip Summary: A solid Kentucky Derby prep, The Rebel Stakes has been an Oaklawn Park fixture since 1961, and has produced such Classic winners as Temperence Hill (first, 1980), Sunny’s Halo (first, 1983), Pine Bluff (first, 1992), Victory Gallop (first, 1998), Smarty Jones (first, 2004), Afleet Alex (sixth, 2005), and Curlin (first, 2007).

This year’s renewal was supposed to be the next step in OLD FASHIONED’s Arkansas waltz to the Kentucky Derby, but the Unbridled’s Song colt flattened out after chasing a hot pace, and his undefeated streak came to an unlikely end in his fifth lifetime start.

The role of spoiler fell to WIN WILLY, a previously unheralded colt that was dismissed at 56-1 in the wagering. Win Willy’s sire is Monarchos, the Kentucky Derby winner of 2001, and the dam was a stakes-winning sprinter. Despite the solid bloodlines, Win Willy only sold for $25,000 at a yearling, and he made his successful career debut last year at Canterbury Park in Minnesota. After faltering in a turf race, Win Willy won his 2009 debut going six furlongs at Oaklawn Park on February 22. The Rebel was his first route attempt, and the late runner benefited greatly from the ambitious pace up front.

Win Willy was outsprinted early, and raced by himself at the tail end of the field. He began picking up horses from the outside on the far turn, and continued a sustained rally into the stretch. Despite changing leads several times, he ran past the favorite in the final sixteenth of a mile. Although he has never tasted defeat on the main track, Win Willy must prove that this race wasn’t a pace-induced fluke. He’ll likely get his chance to do so in the Arkansas Derby.

OLD FASHIONED’s Kentucky Derby hopes took a hit as he was clear turning into the stretch only to come up empty late. He broke running from the inside post under jockey Ramon Dominguez, and was soon eased off the rail to chase pacesetter SILVER CITY. The early portion of the race shaped up exactly as the Southwest Stakes on February 16. That day, Old Fashioned blew past Silver City in the stretch en route to victory. This time, Dominguez moved to the front on the far turn, and Old Fashioned shot clear at the quarter pole. Dominguez soon went to a left-handed whip, however, and his mount seemed to be going up and down in the final furlong. Old Fashioned can be given credit for finishing well clear of third-finisher POLTERGEIST despite chasing the enervating splits, but the pace will likely be hot on Kentucky Derby Day, and his stamina could be tested going ten furlongs under a similar scenario.

POLTERGEIST finished seventh in the Southwest, and is another that was aided by the fast fractions. The gray stalked the pace while saving every inch of ground under Quincy Hamilton, eased out three wide turning for home, and finished evenly despite being late to switch leads. He drifted out a bit in the stretch, and is a cut below top class.

CAPTAIN CHEROKEE, a half-brother to two-time Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion Midnight Lute, stepped up in company following a win in a slowly-run allowance race in the slop at the Fair Grounds. He was immediately taken in hand coming out of the gate, and settled in midpack while two wide entering the backstretch. Jockey Luis Quinonez found the inside after a half-mile, and the duo followed Poltergeist along the rail on the final bend. Captain Cherokee maneuvered outside in upper stretch, and finished evenly without threatening the winner.

SILVER CITY didn’t finish well in the Southwest, and he was a doubtful winner going a sixteenth of a mile longer in the Rebel. He shot out to the front, and cleared to the inside after two furlongs. He set ambitious fractions of 22.54, and 46.07, but had no response when Old Fashioned made his bid with three panels remaining. He didn’t gallop out very well, and desperately needs to turn back in distance.

POINTING HOME was spotted ambitiously after a maiden win. He broke a half-step slowly, and then was steadied from in between horses soon after the start. Pointing Home saved ground early on the backstretch while near the back of the pack, but was eased three wide after a half-mile, and commenced an outside bid entering the final turn. Pointing Home flattened out entering the stretch, and drifted in a bit in the final furlong.

HIS GREATNESS stalked the pace while three wide, eased in a bit on the backstretch, tried to attack three wide entering the far turn, and was beaten after six furlongs. He doesn’t have a very attractive way of going.

HAMAZING DESTINY was a stablemate of the winner when he won his maiden first-out with a 94 Beyer Speed Figure, but he was privately purchased following the race, and was turned over to Wayne Lukas. He chased the quick splits while racing off the rail, but tired badly after five furlongs. He may need to start back at square one in the allowance ranks.

WISE KID drifted in soon after the start, tightening up Pointing Home to his inside, then raced in between horses from a stalking position on the backstretch. He tired very badly after five furlongs.

Grade:  C 
I’m still not convinced that Win Willy is top level, but Old Fashioned deserves another chance based on his overall body of work. The rest look like outsiders.

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San Felipe Stakes

By Dan Illman - Posted 3/18/09

Trip Summary: Over the last thirty-one years, the San Felipe Stakes has been a quality prep race on the road to the Kentucky Derby. Classic winners that emerged from the San Felipe during that time period include Affirmed (winner, 1978), Gato del Sol (second, 1982), Gate Dancer (second, 1984), Alysheba (second, 1987), Sunday Silence (winner, 1989), Silver Charm (second, 1997), Real Quiet (second, 1998), Fusaichi Pegasus (winner, 2000), Point Given (winner, 2001), and Giacomo (second, 2005).

While this year’s winner, PIONEEROF THE NILE, has yet to race on a dirt surface, his quality cannot be denied. His professional victory was his third straight graded stakes score, and he has firmly stamped his position as the leading three-year-old in Southern California. While that statement may rattle the feathers of fans of The Pamplemousse, Pioneerof the Nile is a battle-tested Grade 1 winner that showed a strong tactical gear in the San Felipe.

To avoid potential traffic trouble, jockey Garrett Gomez guided Pioneerof the Nile to a stalking position in the three path heading into the backstretch. There was no pace in the race, and Gomez made a bold choice. He sent Pioneerof the Nile, usually a late kicker, up to press the issue from the two path.

“He was nice and settled going into the first turn and I was happy with my position,” said Gomez after the San Felipe. “But they slowed it down and I didn’t want to have to take too much hold and go as slow as they were going. When we turned down the backside, I moved him out, hoping that the others would pick it up, but they didn’t, so I just went on with it.”

The Empire Maker colt willingly responded, and he soon was at the flank of pacesetter NEW BAY as the field coasted through a tepid half-mile in 48.60. New Bay had no response when Pioneerof the Nile turned up the heat on the turn, and Gomez found himself on the lead a bit earlier than expected.

”When we got to the eighth pole, he was waiting on the other horses,” said Gomez. “We didn’t have a target late, but you can see that when I do get into him, he lengthens his stride.”

Pioneerof the Nile responded to the new experience positively, and held off all challenges in the final sixteenth of a mile. He doesn’t win with the flashiness of a Zenyatta, and speed figure fans will moan about his slow races, but Pioneerof the Nile continues to get the job done. Whether he’ll handle dirt at Churchill Downs remains to be seen, but trainer Bob Baffert is understandably pleased with his colt thus far. .

”He’s becoming very professional,” Baffert was quoted as saying after the San Felipe. “He was a May foal, so he’s not even three yet. I like what I saw today. This will tighten the screws up for the Santa Anita Derby.”

FEISTY SUANCES, the fourth-place finisher in the California Derby at Golden Gate Fields on January 19, was a questionable starter for the San Felipe as his connections noted in the March 13 edition of the Daily Racing Form that he came out of his last race “a bit jarred up.” He did make it to the gate, and gave a solid account of himself. After breaking outwardly at the start, jockey David Flores found a ground-saving, pace-tracking spot for the backstretch run. Feisty Suances had to wait just a bit on the turn while angling three wide from in between horses, and he finished evenly for the place while no threat to the winner. There are good-sized Cal-bred pots for him out there, and he may also be effective on grass as his sire, Suances, was a Group 1 winner in France.

JERANIMO was facing a huge task with only a maiden win to his credit, but he ran on to finish third. He tracked the leader from the two path on the first turn, but was wrangled off the pace when Pioneerof the Nile brushed on the backstretch. Jeranimo was spun four wide turning for home, raced in the five path in the stretch, and finished evenly while drifting out just a smidgen in the stretch.

HE’S REALLY BIG had won two straight coming into the San Felipe, but these were simply too tough. He was a bit eager while rating behind the slow pace on the fence, but settled down after a half-mile. His rider, Aaron Gryder, saved every bit of ground throughout, and they were in with a chance turning for home. He’s Really Big lumbered home in a one-paced fashion, however, and isn’t in this league.

SHAFTED was given a chance to atone for his dull effort in the Robert B. Lewis, but he fumbled the ball. He was bothered coming out of the gate, and seemed a bit green for the first few strides. Jockey Joel Rosario took Shafted four wide going into the first turn, and the pair lost ground throughout while three paths off the fence. Shafted raced widest turning for home, but had no pop when the real running began. He needs a confidence-building effort against weaker company.

NEW BAY, a son of the crack sprinter Cuvee, may have found this distance a bit too steep. A winner of two straight sprint races, New Bay was sent to the front and the rail by Joe Talamo, and set an easy, uncontested pace for the first three furlongs. His tactical advantage quickly dissipated when Pioneerof the Nile decided to contest the fractions, and New Bay was a beaten horse turning for home. There were no excuses for New Bay. He simply needs shorter distances.

Grade:  C+ 
The winner is the only legitimate Derby horse of the group, but he continues to win in solid fashion, and a highly-anticipated battle with The Pamplemousse looms on the horizon in the Santa Anita Derby.

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Gotham Stakes

By Dan Illman - Posted 3/12/09

Trip Summary:  Legendary names like Native Dancer (inaugural running, 1953), Dr. Fager (1967), and Secretariat (1973) have won the Gotham, a historic prelude to the Wood Memorial on the New York fork of the Triple Crown trail.  The race hasn’t been a strong Derby prep in many years with Easy Goer (1989) and Red Bullet (2000) the recent notables that went on to taste success in the classics.  Both failed to wear the roses on the first Saturday in May, however. 

I WANT REVENGE couldn’t finish with Pioneerof the Nile despite a perfect trip in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on February 7, but he took to the dirt like a duck to water in the Gotham.  Racing for the first time away from the synthetic surfaces of Southern California, and for the second time in blinkers, I Want Revenge broke well under Joe Talamo, and was soon glued to the hip of pacesetter MR. FANTASY.  He stayed abreast of the betting favorite while racing off the rail down the backstretch, and turned for home in tandem with the leader.  At the furlong marker, Talamo asked for a bit more, and I Want Revenge accelerated in eye-catching style.  He soon was three in front of a reeling Mr. Fantasy and he continued to pour it on during the stretch drive.  He looked a bit tired during the early portion of the gallop-out as he changed back to his wrong lead a few strides before hitting the clubhouse turn, but this was a breakthrough effort for I Want Revenge, and he now has to be considered a serious Derby contender.  How the race flattered Pioneerof the Nile and Papa Clem, the two that finished ahead of I Want Revenge in the Lewis, is questionable as both still must prove their mettle on dirt.  I Want Revenge has no such issues now, and that gives trainer Jeff Mullins some exciting options over the next few weeks.  The Wood Memorial, to be run at nine furlongs over the Aqueduct main track, seems like the next logical target. 

A handsome son of Stephen Got Even, the winner of the Grade 1 Donn Handicap at nine furlongs, I Want Revenge was a $95,000 RNA last May at Barretts.  The dam was a stakes-winner going 7 ½ furlongs on grass in her native Argentina.

IMPERIAL COUNCIL, a solid allowance winner at Gulfstream in his 2009 debut, made his first start around two turns in the Gotham.  Taken in hand after the start by Rajiv Maragh, Imperial Council found a good spot by himself while saving ground entering the backstretch.  Racing far back for the first five furlongs, Maragh kept skimming the rail until the upper stretch, where he angled Imperial Council to the outside to continue his rally.  While no match for the winner, Imperial Council did pass the tiring Mr. Fantasy for second in the shadow of the wire.  It could be argued that Imperial Council was too far off the moderate fractions, but he saved every inch of ground, and enjoyed a pretty good trip.  He has somewhat of a paddling stride, but is a lightly-raced sort capable of major improvement in the next few weeks.

MR. FANTASY started favored based on a pair of open-length victories over the winterized Inner Track, and he soon pulled Alan Garcia to the lead and the rail going into the first turn.  He never got a chance to truly relax as I Want Revenge constantly upped the pressure down the backstretch.  Mr. Fantasy couldn’t keep up with the winner late, and was noticeably shortening stride in the final seventy yards.  He was drifting out nearing the wire, and seems more like a miler at this point of his career. 

MASALA shipped up from Florida for Todd Pletcher, but was extremely cold on the tote board for the majority of the wagering.  He tracked the pace while in between horses, but never seemed comfortable over this surface, and was outpaced badly on the far turn.  Both of his straightaway lead changes looked awkward, and he never made an impression during the final furlong.  This was a rather disappointing effort. 

RUSSELL ROAD entered the Gotham off six straight wins against much easier company, but was found wanting when the real running began.  The gelding tracked the pace from the pocket, but was outrun during the third quarter.  He never left the inside, and finished evenly without ever threatening for top honors.  If spotted correctly against lesser competition, he can make his owners a good deal of money.

Like I Want Revenge, AXEL FOLEY was making his first start on dirt, but he had been fairly exposed in California, and needed to run a career best race to contend in the Gotham.  He raced far behind for almost seven furlongs before passing only tired foes in the stretch.

NAOS, the weaker half of the uncoupled Pletcher entry, was a bit eager going into the first turn, saved ground in mid-division, and never threatened.

HAYNESFIELD was the big disappointment.  A winner of three straight two-turn races on the Inner Dirt, Haynesfield failed to show his customary early speed, and settled into a stalking position entering the backstretch.  He raced three wide down the straight before beginning a four wide bid on the far turn.  He was soon beaten, and he drifted in badly while tiring in the stretch.

GIANT RYAN was overmatched on paper, and he had no response after tracking the pace three wide for five furlongs.  He was late to change leads.

Grade:  B- 
I Want Revenge was extremely impressive in his first start on dirt.  Imperial Council can move forward, but is running out of time.  Mr. Fantasy may be more effective at shorter distances.  The others have lots of work to do.

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Fountain of Youth Stakes

By Dan Illman - Posted 3/6/09

Trip Summary: A staple on the three-year-old stakes calendar since 1949 (it was run for juveniles in 1945 and 1947), the Fountain of Youth’s prestige has taken a hit in recent years due to several distance changes. Historically a 1 1/16 race that featured future Kentucky Derby winners Thunder Gulch, Go for Gin, Unbridled, Swale, Pleasant Colony, Spectacular Bid, and others, it was moved to nine furlongs in 2005 due to the new configuration of the Gulfstream main track. After four sub par versions of the race, the Fountain of Youth was changed to a one-turn mile in 2009, and it attracted several Kentucky Derby hopefuls.

QUALITY ROAD jumped into the Derby picture with a flashy debut win at Aqueduct on November 28, and he vanquished a pair of next-out winners in that gate-to-wire score. He shipped down to South Florida after the race, and was sent off the 7-10 favorite in a solid allowance heat on January 10. After breaking a beat slowly, and rushing up to contest a quick pace, he faltered in the stretch behind THEREGOESJOJO. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens revealed that Quality Road came out of that defeat with a cough, and he used the anti-bleeding medication Lasix for the first time in the Fountain of Youth. What resulted was a 113 Beyer Speed Figure, and a huge leap up Derby contender lists.

The dynamic of the race changed immediately when NOTONTHESAMEPAGE, the expected pacesetter, never got anywhere near the front. That threw the pace scenario out of whack, and THIS ONES FOR PHIL ended up the unlikely leader coming out of the chute. Quality Road was lightly bumped from both sides coming out of the gate, but soon picked up the chase, tracking This Ones for Phil while three wide for the first three furlongs. Quality Road edged in to attack from the two path on the turn, willingly took the lead in upper stretch, and seemed to be reaching out for more at the wire. This was an extremely impressive and professional performance.

Quality Road’s sire, Elusive Quality, was best at distances ranging from seven furlongs to 1 1/16 miles, but he has already tasted Kentucky Derby glory with his son, Smarty Jones, the 2004 winner. Although the dam retired a maiden, there is tremendous class close up in the female family as she is a full sister to Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Ajina. The second dam, Winglet, won the Grade 2 Princess Stakes, and the third dam was a Group 2 winner on grass in Ireland.

After beating Quality Road on January 10, Theregoesjojo reportedly suffered from a lung infection, and he may not have been at his best for the Fountain of Youth. After drifting in a bit at the start, Theregoesjojo saved ground from midpack, and was pretty far back late on the backstretch. He made a three wide move on the far turn to get into contention, and continued on willingly for the place. This was a good effort from Theregoesjojo, and it will be interesting to see if he can eventually turn back the tables on Quality Road around two turns. The main track was playing favorably to early speed runners, and Theregoesjojo may have been compromised just a bit by the perceived bias.

BEETHOVEN closed from last in the race, and is another that will be followed by handicappers that believe in track bias. To be fair, a one-turn mile is probably not his game, and he should do better when returning to longer, two-turn routes. He raced far back for the majority of the race, circled the field on the far turn, and finished evenly while late to change leads. He seemed to drift out a bit in the drive, and may be a notch or two below the exacta finishers, but seems like a horse with a puncher’s chance in a Derby likely to feature quick fractions.

CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN looked good winning the Hutcheson last month at seven furlongs, but lacked a similar stretch punch at this longer distance. After being bumped at the start, jockey Julien Leparoux found a nice spot tracking the leader from the pocket, but his mount couldn’t keep up turning for home, and was one-paced in the stretch. He seems a quality sprinter, but the Derby distance is probably too demanding.

Thanks to a 40-point improvement on the Beyer scale in his first start for Richard Dutrow Jr., This Ones for Phil became arguably the most controversial three-year-old in training. This was the acid test for the Untuttable gelding, and he failed to stay the trip despite racing with the grain of the bias. After bumping twice with Quality Road leaving the gate, This Ones for Phil was able to easily make the lead, and jockey Edgar Prado was able to clear all the way over to the rail. The winner turned up the heat entering the turn, and This Ones for Phil was a noticeably tired runner in the stretch, merely going up-and-down in the final furlong. A Derby win is unlikely for the Dutrow gelding as he must now shed the label of “one-hit wonder.”

BEE CEE CEE was forced in a bit at the start by Theregoesjojo, and settled at the rear of the field while saving ground. He moved in tandem with Beethoven on the turn, but was badly outpaced by that one, and merely passed tired horses while drifting out a bit in the stretch.

NOTONTHESAMEPAGE shocked virtually everyone when he didn’t try for the lead, and he seemed dull throughout. Elvis Trujillo found a decent spot in midpack for his mount, and they attempted to move in company with Theregoesjojo on the turn. Notonthesamepage couldn’t keep up with that rival, was under the whip a long way out, and never made an impact in the stretch. After the race, it was reported that Notonthesamepage bled. It may be the best course of action to regroup, and turn this quick colt back in distance.

JACK SPRATT raced in midpack from the two path, was far back going into the turn, found the inside on the bend, and never made an impression. This was a dirt experiment that backfired, and he should be returned to the turf.

TAQARUB came in with some hype off three gate-to-wire wins in New York, but was curiously rated by Alan Garcia here. After being bounced around at the start, Taqarub soon recovered to track the pace while in between horses. He was under the whip from over two furlongs out, and tired badly late.

Perhaps no North American three-year-old’s reputation has fallen as fast as BREAK WATER EDISON. The Nashua winner bombed in the Hutcheson, and was eased under the wire here. Adding blinkers, Break Water Edison tracked the leaders while three wide, but was a beaten horse midway on the turn.

Grade:  A- 
You never know until they go two turns, but both Quality Road and Theregoesjojo ran nice races, and can continue to make noise on the Triple Crown trail.

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Sham Stakes

By Dan Illman - Posted 3/5/09

Trip Summary: Run at Santa Anita since 2001, the Sham has produced Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker (second, 2003), and Kentucky Derby hero Giacomo (third, 2005). The last two editions of the Sham have been contested over the synthetic main track, however, and the jury is still out as to how the form will play on dirt.

After the defection of VENTANA, the title of lone speed went to THE PAMPLEMOUSSE, and the big gray did not disappoint with a gate-to-wire effort under Alex Solis. The winner of the San Rafael at a mile on January 17, The Pamplemousse firmly ensconced himself as one of the “Big Two” in Southern California with a thoroughly professional victory. He may meet his main rival, CashCall Futurity and Robert B. Lewis victor, Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby.

The Pamplemousse was sent immediately to the front, and he secured the inside going up the backstretch. Solis was able to catch a bit of a breather in the second quarter as The Pamplemousse was in cruise control on an uncontested early lead, and the pair scooted clear in upper stretch. They stayed straight as a string in the lane, and The Pamplemousse looked good in routing his competition. Although he has a pronounced “paddle” with his left foreleg, it doesn’t seem to bother The Pamplemousse over this synthetic course. His combination of speed and staying power is exciting, but it will be interesting to see what happens when he faces more pressure up front.

TAKE THE POINTS, fresh off a triple-digit Beyer allowance win at Gulfstream, shipped to Southern California two days before the race in the hope of receiving a valuable education around multiple turns. Saddled with the difficult outside post position, champion jockey Garrett Gomez was forced to track the pace while three horses wide throughout. Take the Points moved into a clear second with a quarter mile to run, but couldn’t move with The Pamplemousse at that crucial stage of the race, and seemed like a very tired animal in the final furlong. His gallop-out wasn’t impressive, and one must wonder if this hard effort knocked the Even the Score colt for a loop.

MR. HOT STUFF, a full brother to 2008 Sham winner Colonel John, raced in the two path near the back of the pack, found the inside on the far turn, and was late to change leads in the stretch. Once he did switch to his correct lead, Mr. Hot Stuff came with a promising run, and he galloped out nicely after the wire. His brother successfully navigated ten furlongs in the Travers, but Mr. Hot Stuff seems behind his more famous sibling at the same stage of their careers.

BOURBON BAY ran an encouraging race for fourth. Making his first start on the main track, he stalked the pace while in between horses before being eased back from the third flight on the backstretch. He rallied four wide at the quarter pole, and finished willingly. His gallop-out was solid, and he can move forward off this race, his first of 2009. Whether he’s a Derby contender remains to be seen, but there are races for him out there.

UNBRIDLED ROMAN, a Cal-bred exiting a solid entry-level allowance heat, stalked the pace while three wide, and finished evenly without threatening the top ones. He has some ability, and can factor for big pots against weaker competition.

SMART BID was tested for class after beating weaker in his last two starts, but didn’t have enough kick to run with The Pamplemousse. He tracked the pace from the pocket position, was one-paced from two furlongs out, and didn’t gallop out with much gusto. MARK S THE COOLER looks like a promising turf runner, and although grass horses often successfully transfer their good form to synthetics, that doesn’t appear to be the case with this gelding. He may be a potential stakes horse on grass, but doesn’t have the same pop against top competition on the main track. In the Sham, Mark S the Cooler showed improved early speed, and he tracked The Pamplemousse while in between horses. The gas tank was empty on the final turn, however. A switch back to the turf could help immensely.

HI FLYIN INDY, a $725,000 yearling, finished far behind Unbridled Roman last month, and seemed overmatched in this spot. He was lathered up around the neck, saved ground near the back of the pack, and drifted out in the stretch.

TIZ TRUE saved ground to no avail, and galloped out poorly. BALFOUR PARK was making his first start after being claimed out of a winning $100,000 maiden claimer. He raced far back, and was on his wrong lead for most of the stretch.

Grade:  C+ 
The Pamplemousse is a good horse, but this was a questionable field he beat, and he still must prove himself on dirt against a tougher pace scenario. Take the Points looked very tired in the stretch, and Mr. Hot Stuff is still learning.

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Sam F. Davis Stakes

By Dan Illman - Posted 3/3/09

Trip Summary:  The Sam F. Davis has dramatically increased in stature over the last several years and it was awarded a grade in 2009.  Andromeda’s Hero (winner, 2005) went on to place in the Belmont Stakes while the following year’s winner, Bluegrass Cat, eventually placed in both the Derby and Belmont. 

Led by the undefeated Gulfstream allowance winner FREE COUNTRY, and ATOMIC RAIN, the runner-up in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at two, the Sam F. Davis was comprised of a bunch of shippers desperately in need of the graded earnings necessary to snag a berth in the starting gate at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. 

Instead, the locally-based runners dominated the Sam F. Davis, sweeping the top three positions, and dealing serious blows to the Triple Crown hopes of the more highly-touted invaders. 

GENERAL QUARTERS, winless in his seven races prior to the Sam F. Davis, benefited from a perfect ride by James Lopez to post the upset

”We had a dream run,” said Lopez after the race.  “I sat in behind the leader and just stayed there until it was time to go and he went!  He had stopped on me sprinting in his last two races but I probably had him on the lead too soon.  This guy has a big future.”

General Quarters sold for $20,000 to Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey at the 2007 Keeneland September yearling auction, but was risked for the same price tag in his career debut at Churchill Downs on May 30, 2008.  General Quarters won that race by a hard-fought neck for trainer Wesley Ward, but he failed to avoid being claimed, and was taken by longtime horseman Thomas McCarthy. 

McCarthy was listed as the trainer of record for his new acquisition’s next five races before he turned the reins over the Mark Miller.  After the Sam F. Davis, both men admitted that it was a team effort.  “Mr. McCarthy claimed him in Kentucky, and I was stabled next to him,” said Miller.  “That’s how we met.  He sent the horse down here to me, and General Quarters just loves it here.  He seems to be on the improve.”

”I’m the groom,” said McCarthy.  I’m out here every day, and we work as a team.  I sent General Quarters down to Mark, and we correspond, and when I got down here, I just started rubbing him.”

General Quarters broke nicely, and seemed a bit rank going into the first turn as Lopez settled him in behind the leaders while saving ground.  As pacesetter A.P. CARDINAL remained removed from the inside, Lopez grabbed the rail position on the backstretch, and the pair cut the corner going into the turn, and into the homestretch.  General Quarters drew off professionally in the stretch to post the upset.  While the race came back fast, it must be noted that General Quarters didn’t have a straw in his path for the last six furlongs of the race.  He had a dream run on the rail, and trips like that don’t come easy in the Kentucky Derby.  He also must relax better in the early portion of the race if he is to contend against tougher competition.

General Quarters is by Hopeful (Grade 1, seven furlongs) winner Sky Mesa, a Pulpit colt that successfully stretched his speed to 1 1/16 miles.  The second dam, Gdansk’s Honour, won the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial in Ireland, and is a full sister to Honoria, the dam of Jim Dandy winner Composer.

SUMO had won two in a row coming into the race including an entry-level triumph at Tampa Bay Downs.  The son of Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus seemed a bit eager as he tracked the pace three wide going into the first turn, and he raced in that path around the racetrack.  Sumo loomed a threat in upper stretch, but never really threatened the ground-saving General Quarters in the final eighth while proving clearly second best.  Sumo’s dam was a Grade 3 winner on the grass, and there are some stamina influences in the female family.

MUSKET MAN had won his first three starts at sprint distances, and the son of Yonaguska was receiving a stern test in his first start around two turns.  He left the machine quickly, and soon found a solid spot tracking the leader while in between horses.  Musket Man found himself under a heavy ride over two furlongs from home, however, and never really looked a winner.  He found the rail in the drive, and the fact that he held on for third may be more an indictment of the rest of the field than a positive marker on Musket Man’s performance.  He seems a decent sprinter or miler, and would benefit from turning back in distance.

Free Country took all the money off his two previous starts, both victories including a nine furlong score at Gulfstream Park.  He stalked the leaders while in and among rivals on the first turn before jockey Kent Desormeaux found the rail on the backstretch.  Free Country split horses on the final bend, and finished evenly in the lane.  While not competitive with the top finishers, Free Country received a solid, learning run.  He can move forward off this effort although it is questionable whether he belongs with the upper echelon of this crop.

A. P. CARDINAL broke a half-step slowly, and was quarter-horsed to make the lead going into the first turn. He carved out the fractions while racing well removed from the inner railing, and willingly gave way as the field turned for home.  He has been fairly exposed, but sports a beautiful pedigree, looks the part, and may improve given more maturity.  A Derby horse?  No, but he may prove a useful older performer.
TOP SEED put his undefeated streak on the line, and was found wanting.  He broke from the far outside post, and was spun four wide going into the first turn.  He raced in between rivals down the backstretch, but had no response after angling wide turning for home.

Atomic Rain was knocked around at the start, and then was forced to race four paths off the rail on the first turn.  He lost significant ground throughout, and understandably tired when the real running began.  He deserves another chance.

CLIFFY’S FUTURE was purchased privately following a solid runner-up effort in New York.  He was taken immediately to the rail while at the back of the pack, and raced far behind for the first half-mile.  Midway down the backstretch, he began a premature run to split horses, but came up flat at the quarter-pole. 

MEDAGLIA D’ONORE bobbled a bit at the start, and was shuffled back while saving ground on the first turn.  He raced three wide on the final curve, and wasn’t persevered with in the final two furlongs.
MITCHELL PARK was brushed from both sides at the start, and raced three wide on the first turn.  He called it an afternoon early on the final bend.

PLAYER’S LIST was caught in a tight spot on the first turn, but was never going to threaten.

Grade:  C 
Skeptics will point to General Quarters’ win as a good trip-aided fluke, and he’ll need to prove his worth in the Tampa Bay Derby against better competition.  Sumo showed some promise while racing wide throughout.  The rest seem more like second-string competitors.

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Southwest Stakes

By Dan Illman - Posted 3/2/09

Trip Summary: Smarty Jones put the Southwest Stakes on the map when he grabbed top honors in the 2004 renewal en route to success in Louisville and Baltimore. Last year’s winner, Denis of Cork, finished third in the Derby and second in the Belmont Stakes. As wintering in Arkansas has become more fashionable, the Southwest has grown in stature by leaps and bounds since the inaugural running in 1968.

This year’s Southwest looked a two-horse battle on paper, and it played out that way on the racetrack. OLD FASHIONED, the leading Derby contender in the minds of many racing experts, kept his undefeated record intact with a solid performance. The winner of the nine-furlong Remsen Stakes to cap off his juvenile campaign, Old Fashioned is trained by Larry Jones, the conditioner of Eight Belles and Hard Spun, the last two second-place finishers of the Kentucky Derby, and is the man at the helm of Friesan Fire, the leading three-year-old in New Orleans.

Old Fashioned broke beautifully in the Southwest, and was sent up by jockey Ramon Dominguez to press the quick pace set by SILVER CITY. Old Fashioned tracked the fractions from the two path before Dominguez pushed the button on the far turn. After collaring the pacesetter at the quarter-pole, Old Fashioned edged away in the final sixteenth to win comfortably despite finishing his final eighth in a pokey 26.37 (according to Formulator). Although the final time of 1:37.41 was well off the track record, Old Fashioned showed a willingness to relax on the backstretch, and his lead change in the home straight was much improved from some of his races at two. It’s also possible that he wasn’t fully cranked for this, his first start of 2009, and he received a good hard run.

Sold for $800,000 at the 2007 Keeneland September yearling auction, Old Fashioned is by Unbridled’s Song, a multiple graded winner at nine furlongs, and beaten favorite in the 1996 Kentucky Derby. The dam, Collect Call, was a multiple Grade 3 winner, and was able to successfully stretch her speed to nine furlongs. The second dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Mitterand, the dam of successful sire French Deputy.

The Arkansas Derby looms on the horizon for Old Fashioned, and a win there would propel him to likely favoritism in the Kentucky Derby.

Silver City, the winner of the Dixieland Stakes earlier in the Oaklawn meet, put his three race win streak on the line, and completed the Unbridled’s Song exacta. Trained by Bret Calhoun, Silver City darted to the lead, and set a quick pace on the rail while hounded by the winner. Silver City briefly shook clear late on the backstretch, but was engaged again in earnest on the turn, and was tiring noticeably in the final sixteenth of a mile. He looks like a quality runner, but may turn out to be more effective in races like the King’s Bishop at seven furlongs than the Kentucky Derby at 1 ¼ miles.

BUZZIN AND DREAMIN, a maiden winner at 1 1/16 miles on January 19, turned back in distance for his trainer, Wayne Lukas. Although many of the names in the immediate pedigree indicate that Buzzin and Dreamin looms a possible sprinter or miler, his dam is a full sister to Hemingway’s Key, the third-place finisher of the 2006 Preakness. Buzzin and Dreamin tracked the pace while saving ground, and was put to an all-out drive over two furlongs from home. He eased out in the stretch, and finished evenly while failing to change leads. Dismissed at 64-1 odds, Buzzin and Dreamin must continue to improve in order to be taken seriously as a Derby prospect.

Of the horses beaten by Old Fashioned on this day, FLAT OUT might be the one to watch down the road. The winner of the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn on January 19, Flat Out hopped in the air at the start of the Southwest, and soon spotted the field a three-length head start. After settling off the rail near the back of the pack for the backstretch run, Flat Out commenced a three wide bid on the turn, and finished with some interest. He galloped out nicely, and deserves at least one more chance at this level.

LOCH DUBH, a reformed $15,000 maiden claimer, brought three straight sprint wins to the Southwest, and was coming off his biggest performance, a win in the Turfway Prevue over polytrack. He was bumped slightly at the start, and was caught in a tight spot while in between horses going into the first turn. Jockey Jon Court soon found a comfortable position in midpack for Loch Dubh, and the pair rallied three wide entering the turn. Loch Dubh seemed to flatten out in the final sixteenth, but finished evenly, and can build off this effort against slightly weaker competition.

GRESHAM was taken immediately to the rail and the back of the pack by jockey Calvin Borel, and the duo trailed for most of the way while saving ground. Gresham split horses at the quarter-pole, angled out in midstretch, and finished mildly without threatening for a top spot. He’s probably a notch or two below top-class at this point.

POLTERGEIST earned a big speed figure in an entry-level optional claimer on January 17, but had no pop when called upon in this race. He raced three wide and in between horses going into the first turn before stalking the pace from the two path on the backstretch. He simply flattened out when the field swung into the stretch.

PROFESSOR Z broke a half-length slowly, but soon found a decent position saving ground by his lonesome on the backstretch. He rode the rail throughout, and failed to threaten. He may need a confidence-boosting class drop.

RETAP, the winner of the Riley Allison Futurity at Sunland Park in his final start at two, was bumped at the start, saved ground while stalking the pace, and had no response from over two furlongs out.

SILVER BAYER was hustled to race four wide and in between rivals going into the first turn. He raced in and among foes in the early backstretch, and was a beaten horse a half-mile from the finish.

KICK ON raced five wide going into the first turn, stalked the pace while three wide on the backstretch, seemed to lose his action after a half-mile, and was pulled up.

Grade: C+
While not the “wow” performance that many observers were expecting from Old Fashioned, he still gave a solid effort, and there should be more in the tank for the Arkansas Derby. Silver City looks like a sprinter or miler. Of the rest, Flat Out’s race was the most promising.

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San Vicente Stakes

By Dan Illman - Posted 2/27/09

Trip Summary:  Like the Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream, the San Vicente is usually a springboard for budding sprinters and milers.  The last San Vicente with true Triple Crown implications came back in 1997 when Silver Charm and Free House began their excellent rivalry with a one-two finish.  Inaugurated in 1935, the San Vicente was a good prep race in its early days.  Gallahadion (winner, 1940), Hill Gail (winner, 1949), Determine (second, 1954), Swaps (winner, 1955), Tomy Lee (second, 1956), and Lucky Debonair (winner, 1962) all went on to win the Kentucky Derby. Majestic Prince (winner, 1966), took the Derby and Preakness while Bold Forbes (third, 1976) grabbed the Derby and Belmont.

This year’s affair should have little bearing on the Triple Crown.  EVITA ARGENTINA, a quality filly, went off favored over a weak group of colts, and didn’t disappoint her fans.  The winner of the Grade 3 Sorrento Stakes at Del Mar last year, Evita Argentina faltered badly when tried around two turns in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.  Since that race, her trainer, John Sadler, has turned Evita Argentina back in distance, and she has responded with good rallying efforts.

Evita Argentina has virtually no early speed, and soon found herself far behind in the field of ten.  She steadily gained on the leaders under champion jockey Garrett Gomez on the far turn, switched to the far outside for the stretch run, and closed widest and fastest to win going away. 

”The track is soggy all over,” Gomez was quoted as saying after the San Vicente.  “But at the three-eighths pole, it seemed a little deeper and she got off the bridle with me, so I really had to go to work on her to get her to running again.  She was able to wear them down, but I know she can run even better than that.”

 There will be temptation to stretch Evita Argentina out in distance with the Kentucky Oaks looming on the horizon, but considering her female family boasts such strong sprinters as Appealing Skier and Trippi, it’s quite possible that her late kick will be more effective in shorter races such as the San Vicente.

LEEDSTHEWAY had won both of his career starts prior to the San Vicente, and wasn’t disgraced in his first lifetime defeat.  He broke deftly under Tyler Baze, but was restrained under a hard hold, and ended up pressing the pace while three wide.  He made the front turning for home, but simply didn’t have enough to hold off Evita Argentina.  Trained by Jeff Mullins, there should be a decent race out there for him in the future.

GATO GO WIN, also conditioned by Mullins, had recently won his second straight start in an entry-level allowance, but found these too tough.  He was sent up to press the pace while in between horses, but was under a heavy drive to finish third, and didn’t gallop out very well.  A mile may be his absolute limit right now.

WALL STREET WONDER and VENTANA dead-heated for fourth, and both are trained by Bob Baffert.  The former, fresh off the maiden win, set a pressured pace along the inside before faltering in midstretch.  His gallop-out wasn’t extremely impressive. 

Ventana finished third in last year’s Hollywood Prevue, but has been mostly exposed at this class level.  He tracked the pace while four off the rail, and re-rallied a bit in the stretch while in between rivals.  He galloped out pretty well after the race, and it will be interesting to see if Baffert decides to stretch Ventana out next time as his previous two route tries were poor.

GALLANT SON was a multiple stakes-winner last year at Emerald Downs, but has not flourished over the synthetic surfaces in California.  He was placed in a solid midpack position down the backstretch, and made a four wide sweeping bid into contention on the turn.  He was only one-paced while drifting out in the stretch, however, and may be crying out for a return to dirt racing in Seattle.

SMOKEY LONESOME raced covered up while saving ground, split horses in upper stretch, and never menaced the top finishers.  CUT THE CHECK worked out a harness-style pocket trip, but had no response when the real running began.  CONGOR BAY tracked the pace in the two path while in and among rivals, and backed out after five furlongs.  POINT ATTENDED raced three wide and in between foes, and tired in the final furlong.

Grade: F
No disrespect intended to Evita Argentina, a filly with a lot of quality, but it’s hard to imagine any of these horses in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby.

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El Camino Real Derby

By Dan Illman - Posted 2/26/09

Trip Summary: The El Camino Real Derby was an underrated Triple Crown prep race when run over the dirt surface at old Bay Meadows, but it’s anyone’s guess how the synthetic Tapeta track at Golden Gate Fields will affect the form. Also, the El Camino Real was contested at 1 1/16 at Bay Meadows since its inception in 1982. Not only was the race relocated to Golden Gate when Bay Meadows shut its doors, but the distance was increased to nine furlongs.

Historically, we’ve seen some good horses come out of the El Camino Real. Gate Dancer (runner-up, 1981), Tank’s Prospect (winner, 1985), and Snow Chief (winner, 1986) all won the Preakness. Casual Lies (winner, 1992) and Cavonnier (winner, 1996) both finished second in the Derby. Tabasco Cat (winner, 1994) won the Preakness and Belmont. Charismatic (runner-up, 1999) won the Derby and Preakness.

Perhaps one of the more interesting past winners of the race never competed in the Triple Crown. Event of the Year, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, and ridden by Russell Baze, won the El Camino Real in 1998 “ridden out” with a 105 Beyer. After romping in the Jim Beam Stakes three weeks later, Event of the Year was expected to be one of the favorites for the Derby. Unfortunately, he was injured and forced to miss the Triple Crown.

Baze and Hollendorfer have dominated the jockey and trainer standings in Northern California for many, many years, and they brought a daunting favorite to this year’s El Camino Real. CHOCOLATE CANDY had won the California Derby the prior month with a powerful stretch run, and had previously shown his class with a third-place finish in the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity, and a win in the Real Quiet Stakes, both contested at 1 1/16 miles over the Hollywood cushion track.

Breaking from the far outside in the six-horse field, Chocolate Candy was floated to the four path going into the first turn, and ended up racing wide throughout. The colt was forced to move a bit early while three wide when second-choice AXEL FOLEY made a backstretch bid, and Chocolate Candy raced outside going into the final turn. The favorite turned back Axel Foley with two furlongs remaining, and then had enough moxie to beat back a determined stretch charge from MASSONE.

While the final time (1:50.54), and Beyer Speed Figure (90) won’t have the experts raving, it must be noted that Chocolate Candy lost considerable ground throughout, and he pushed all his chips to the center of the table early with a third-quarter clocking of 23.61 (according to Formulator). He seems like a professional, grinding type with a steady gear, and it’s not unreasonable to conclude that he’ll stay ten furlongs.

The winner is by the hot young stallion Candy Ride, a champion miler in Argentina that wowed the Del Mar faithful with a track record victory in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at 1 ¼ miles. All four of the dam’s wins came in route distances with Crownette’s career highlight coming in the Santa Ysabel Stakes at 1 1/16 miles. The second dam is a half-sister to Triple Crown champion Affirmed. There is certainly enough pedigree to suggest the Derby distance is within Chocolate Candy’s scope.

Massone, a maiden winner from eight tries coming into the race, gave the favorite a slight scare inside the furlong marker. While Chocolate Candy raced wide, jockey Frank Alvarado immediately guided Massone to the rail where he saved ground near the rear of the field for the first six furlongs. Massone began his move on the far turn, and altered course to the inside at the two furlong marker. He closed the gap to a half-length, but there was no doubt which of the two was the better horse on the day. Chocolate Candy had a worse trip, and still prevailed.

Massone has a classy, stamina-based pedigree, and it’s possible that he’s on the way up the ladder. A son of Menifee, the runner-up finisher of the 1999 Kentucky Derby, Massone is out of Stoneleigh’s Hope, a Grade 3 winner on the main track. The second dam won the prestigious Apple Blossom Handicap in 1979.

RENDEZVOUS had won three in a row coming into the race, and wasn’t disgraced in his stakes debut. He shadowed Massone in the two path going into the clubhouse turn, but jockey Bobby Gonazlez seemed intent on following the winner’s early move with a similar three wide brush on the backstretch. To his credit, Rendezvous got within a length of Chocolate Candy in upper stretch before flattening out in the lane. Another trained by Hollendorfer, Rendezvous isn’t a Derby horse, but there are useful races for him out there.

Axel Foley was purchased privately prior to the race, but he had a sweeter trip than Chocolate Candy in the California Derby, and still couldn’t get the better of his rival. Trainer Doug O’Neill added blinkers to Axel Foley’s arsenal for the El Camino Real, but it wasn’t enough to turn the tables. A notoriously poor gate horse, Axel Foley hopped at the start before tracking the runaway early leader while three wide on the first turn. With Chocolate Candy lapped onto his outer flank, Axel Foley moved in tandem with the favorite entering the turn, but couldn’t keep up, and was a beaten horse in the two path two and a half furlongs from the line. He likely needs shorter distances.

AQUICKSTING’s only previous win came in a $40,000 maiden seller, and he was simply overmatched in this spot. He was lathered up a bit around his neck, and leapt in the air slightly at the start. He soon righted himself, and was able to show his customary early speed. Aquicksting quickly cleared the field, and tried to steal the race by setting an uncontested lead through slow fractions. He had no response when Axel Foley and Chocolate Candy came calling entering the turn, and tired badly. This was a rather disappointing effort, even for an outclassed 23-1 hope.

RAISING MEMO looked in steep on the cold dope. He tracked the pace while saving ground, was done after five furlongs, and was walked off the track after being eased.

Grade: C-
Chocolate Candy gave a thoroughly professional performance while racing wide throughout. Massone is a fringe player at best right now. Forget the rest.

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UAE 2000 Guineas

By Dan Illman - Posted 2/20/09

Trip Summary: The UAE 2000 Guineas hasn’t been a successful Kentucky Derby prep as Sheikh Mohammed’s experiment of wintering his most promising three-year-old prospects in Dubai hasn’t panned out at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Godolphin’s three previous winners of this race all failed to make an impact in the Derby. Bachir, the 2000 winner, was sent to Europe where he won both the French and Irish 2000 Guineas. The following year’s UAE 2000 Guineas star, Street Cry, missed the Derby completely, but would rebound to win the Dubai World Cup and Stephen Foster Handicap as a four-year-old. Essence of Dubai finished ninth in the Derby and sixth in the 2002 Belmont Stakes before winning the Super Derby. In recent seasons, the race has mostly been a spotlight for four-year-olds bred in the Southern Hemisphere.

This year’s renewal was supposed to be a wonderful starting point for the much-hyped VINEYARD HAVEN, the winner of the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga and Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park, and a reported $12 million private purchase by Godolphin over the fall. Interestingly enough, Godolphin’s main rider, Frankie Dettori, chose to ignore the headlines. Dettori instead picked DESERT PARTY, the Grade 2 Sanford winner that had already had a race at Nad al Sheba this winter, a win in the Ford Flex Trophy three weeks earlier. This was to be the rubber match between the two favorites with Desert Party upending Vineyard Haven in the Sanford before the gray got his revenge in the Hopeful.

It wasn’t much of a battle. Desert Party, a $2.1 million juvenile purchase, tracked the pacesetters while saving ground, blew Vineyard Haven’s doors off while angling three wide in the upper straight, and overpowered the pacesetters in the final furlong. He was taken in hand by Dettori in the final seventy yards, and switched back to his wrong lead while merely galloping under the wire. Although Desert Party was a solid Grade 2 winner in the United States at two, he missed the tail end of the campaign after suffering some swelling in his left foreleg. He failed to run quickly on the Beyer Speed Figure scale as a juvenile, but his recent successes in Dubai have propelled him to the forefront of the Godolphin operation. A son of Street Cry, Desert Party acts like he’ll successfully stretch out, and he’ll get an opportunity to face Godolphin’s other high-priced winter acquisition, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion Midshipman, in the UAE Derby on March 29. How good is Desert Party? It’s probably too early to say as he’s been chasing moderate paces in Dubai, and would likely have to rally off swifter splits in the United States, but he is a professional, battle-tested warrior with sufficient juvenile foundation.

REGAL RANSOM, a $675,000 juvenile buy, and impressive debut winner at Saratoga before bombing in the Grade 1 Norfolk Stakes over Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride surface, chased Desert Party home in the Ford Flex Trophy, and failed to contain his rival’s late surge once again. He broke a half-length slowly, but was soon pressing the pace while in between rivals. He made the front briefly in the final furlong, but hopped onto his wrong lead when Desert Party called, and was no match for that rival late. He seems more of a miler than a true distance horse.

REDDING COLLIERY, a $170,000 yearling by Mineshaft, was a seven furlong winner over the all-weather at Kempton to conclude his juvenile campaign, and he chased the top two home in the Ford Flex. This time, he wore a visor instead of conventional blinkers, and showed similar speed tactics to clear the field. He set a three-ply pressured pace from the rail, shooed away Vineyard Haven entering the straight, and held on gamely though no match for the first two Godolphin runners.

Vineyard Haven was eager coming out of the gate, and ended up pressing the pace three wide. He had no response when called on for his best entering the straight, and raced greenly late while switching back to his wrong lead. His Kentucky Derby hopes took a big blow in this race.

BLUES AND ROCK finished fourth in the Ford Flex, and he once again led home the contingent from the Southern Hemisphere. He broke nicely, but was rated back to stalk the pace while four wide. He finished evenly while failing to change leads.

I AM THE BEST, an allowance winner over seven furlongs at Nad Al Sheba on December 26, was stepping way up in class, and found these simply too tough. He broke from the far outside post position, tracked the pace while in the clear, and made a four wide bid turning for home. He poked his head into fourth position in midstretch only to tire badly in the final furlong.

REGIONALISTA was unbeaten in two starts in Argentina last year, and this marked a large class rise. He stalked the pace while in between horses, was outpaced going into the straight, and failed to threaten.

ABSENT PLEASURE, sixth in the Ford Flex, hopped a bit at the start, and seemed to pull while three wide and in between horses. He never mustered a rally.

ROCKS OFF, a Group 1 winner on turf in South Africa, probably will appreciate a return to that surface. He didn’t threaten in the Ford Flex, and saved ground to no avail while looking uncomfortable with the footing.

FULLBACK trailed throughout after being a bit rank out of the gate.

Grade: C-
The winner has some potential, but Vineyard Haven’s performance tarnished his reputation, and the rest of the field was made up of horses with questionable quality.

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Robert B. Lewis Stakes

By Dan Illman - Posted 2/19/09

Trip Summary: Run as the Santa Catalina Stakes through 2006, the Robert B. Lewis has been a surprisingly weak prep on the road to the Kentucky Derby. Ferdinand defeated Variety Road to win the 1986 running on his way to immortality at Churchill Downs, but recent winners Crown of Thorns, Great Hunter, Brother Derek, Declan’s Moon, St Averil, Domestic Dispute, Labamta Babe, Millennium Wind, and The Deputy all either suffered injuries, or soon tailed off form.

As with all Kentucky Derby prep races in Southern California, the Robert B. Lewis is contested over a synthetic surface so the results must be taken with a grain of salt. Horses with excellent form over synthetics sometimes do not translate that ability to dirt, and dirt is what they’ll face when they attempt to grab the roses on the first Saturday in May.

PIONEEROF THE NILE, a son of Belmont Stakes kingpin Empire Maker, showed off a stylish late run to win the Lewis. A half-brother to Forefathers, a multiple Grade 2-placed performer on dirt, Pioneerof the Nile is out of Star of Goshen, a stakes-winning sprinter that earned a 103 Beyer Speed Figure when taking the 1997 La Troienne Stakes at Churchill Downs. Star of Goshen is a half-sister to Powis Castle, a Grade 2 sprint winner that finished eighth in the 1994 Derby.

Pioneerof the Nile stamped himself as the leading West Coast contender for the Kentucky Derby with his victory in the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park, and looked very good winning the Lewis. Jockey Garrett Gomez found a nice spot in midpack for Pioneerof the Nile for the first half-mile, but the duo found themselves in tight while in between horses on the final turn. Pioneerof the Nile was shuffled back just a bit, and was forced to go five wide as the field swung into the stretch. Undaunted by the trouble, Pioneerof the Nile rallied down the center of the track with giant strides to overtake the leaders in the final sixteenth of a mile.

Although the win was visually impressive, it will be interesting to see how it exactly pertains to the Derby picture. Pioneerof the Nile has never raced on dirt – his only win before the CashCall Futurity was in a maiden special weight on turf at Saratoga for then-trainer Bill Mott.

His new conditioner, Bob Baffert, doesn’t seem too concerned. “I think I’m going to leave him here because he likes it here and he trains well here,” said Baffert after the race when questioned about Pioneerof the Nile’s next engagment. “If he likes the dirt, he’ll like the dirt. I can’t force him to like the dirt, but I think he’s going to like it, the way he moves over it, and the way he ran at Hollywood. That’s more of a dirt course, anyway.”

Similarly impressed was Garrett Gomez. “We had a Kentucky Derby-type trip,” said the defending Eclipse Award winner after the Lewis. “The first half mile was great and the second half was a nightmare. Coming to the eighth pole I was thinking I might be a bad third and all of a sudden he kicked it in. He’s a big, long-striding horse and it’s nice to see that he faced some adversity today and he overcame it.”

PAPA CLEM was making his first start since winning his maiden. A son of Smart Strike out of Grade 1 sprint winner Miss Houdini, Papa Clem has a classy pedigree. His second dam, Magical Maiden, was a multiple Grade 1 winner, and this family has produced Avies Copy, the third-place finisher of the 1987 Kentucky Derby.

In the Lewis, Papa Clem went up to track lone pacesetter BROTHER KEITH while racing in the two path. Papa Clem and jockey Rafael Bejarano charged after the leader in earnest on the final turn, poked his head in front in upper stretch, and dug in gamely despite drifting out several paths in the stretch.

The performance impressed his rider. “I had to use my horse a little bit to keep my position from the three-eighths pole to the quarter-pole and then to the wire,” said Bejarano after the race. “I think that cost me a little bit, because my horse was flying at the end. I had to let him run from the three-eighths.”

I WANT REVENGE, the CashCall Futurity runner-up, was adding blinkers for the first time in the Lewis. A son of Stephen Got Even out of Meguial, a stakes-winner at 7 ½ furlongs in Argentina, I Want Revenge enjoyed a good trip under Joe Talamo. After slightly bumping with Mark S the Cooler at the start, I Want Revenge stalked the pace in third from the two or three path, and made a smooth three wide bid to the leaders on the far turn. He looked a winner in upper stretch, but failed to pass Papa Clem while drifting out a couple of paths, and couldn’t contain Pioneerof the Nile’s late surge.

”Around the turn, I thought it was going to be a matter of how far he would win by,” said Talamo after the race. “We decided to put blinkers on him. I think that helped him out a lot. It made him a little bit more focused. But I can’t really give him any excuse.”

All three of BITTEL ROAD’s lifetime wins have come on turf, but grass form seems to transfer to synthetic surfaces, and trainer Todd Pletcher gave the son of Stormy Atlantic a shot in this graded race. Bittel Road bobbled ever so slightly leaving the gate, tracked the pace while saving ground, and had to wait for a split second while in behind horses on the turn. He then eased into the four path in upper stretch, and was simply outfinished by the top three while drifting out in the stretch. Jockey John Velazquez gave Bittel Road a nice trip, and the colt was found wanting. He may be more effective at a mile on the grass.

MARK S THE COOLER entered the Lewis off a hugely-impressive maiden win on turf, and may simply have been placed in over his head for this spot. He was bumped by I Want Revenge at the start, saved ground throughout, and had no excuses while finishing evenly along the rail. A switch back to grass may be all it takes for the son of Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Johar to return to the winner’s enclosure.

OIL MAN, a winner on grass in England, was pinched back at the start, and raced two or three wide near the tail end of the field. He never made an impact in the stretch, but wasn’t disgraced. There’s probably a race for him down the road.

BROTHER KEITH, an immature son of Johar trained by Bobby Frankel, took the first turn much better this time around, and established an uncontested lead for the first half-mile. He was a beaten horse after seven furlongs, however, and he switched back to his wrong racing lead in midstretch. He cannot be fully trusted until he figures the game out.

SHAFTED brushed the side of the gate, was off a half-length slowly, and then was angled to the inside going into the clubhouse turn. He raced by his lonesome at the rear of the field, split horses entering the far turn, and failed to rally.

CHARLIE’S MOMENT gave a discouraging performance. He raced in midpack while two or three paths off the rail, and made a four wide bid to get within a half-length of I Want Revenge on the far turn. It soon all fell apart as Charlie’s Moment failed to change leads, drifted in, and tired badly in the final quarter of a mile.

Grade: C+
Of the nine horses that contested the Lewis, only two (Brother Keith, Charlie’s Moment) had previously competed on dirt. The Pro-Ride surface seemed to favor stalkers and closers on February 7, and Pioneerofthe Nile’s critics may point to the possible bias as a reason to downgrade his effort. Still, he was a very stylish winner, is in the capable hands of Bob Baffert, and has the pedigree to appreciate the Derby distance. Papa Clem was giving up experience in this spot, but I didn’t like how he was coming out in the stretch. I Want Revenge had every chance. The others don’t look like realistic Triple Crown hopefuls.

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Risen Star Stakes

By Dan Illman - Posted 2/19/09

Trip Summary: Known as the Louisiana Derby Trial Stakes until 1989, the Risen Star has not been a key Kentucky Derby prep in recent seasons. Master Derby won the race in 1975 en route to taking the Preakness, and the race’s namesake took the 1988 running on his way to winning that year’s Preakness and Belmont. FRIESAN FIRE proved his Lecomte win on January 10 was no fluke as he became the first three-year-old colt to win multiple graded stakes races in 2009. Trained by Larry Jones, Friesan Fire was a bit eager in the early going while showing his customary tactical speed, and was tracking the pace while in and among horses on the backstretch. He bulled his way four wide turning for home, and received a tiny bump from Uno Mas as that one tried to keep him hemmed in behind horses. Once clear, Friesan Fire kept to his task nicely under jockey Gabriel Saez. Friesan Fire has been a beacon of consistency since being shipped to New Orleans and his good tactical speed always seems to give him a chance to win. By A.P. Indy, the winner of the Belmont Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Classic, from a strong Australian female family, Friesan Fire should have enough pedigree to handle ten furlongs on the first Saturday in May.

”I had horses on both sides of me,” said Saez after the race. “When it opened up, I ran past those horses and kept the pressure on.”

Jones has no intention of taking Friesan Fire out of his comfort zone at the Fair Grounds. “We still haven’t gotten to the bottom of this horse but we’re going to shoot for the Louisiana Derby next month,” said Jones after the Risen Star.

FLYING PEGASUS ran a big race in his first start since reportedly undergoing surgery to repair an injured hind ankle. Showing fresh speed in his first start off the bench, Flying Pegasus was spun five wide going into the first turn after breaking from post 12 in the bulky field. He tracked the pace while three and four deep on the backstretch before making a solid three wide bid on the far turn. Flying Pegasus made the front in upper stretch before understandably tiring in the final furlong.

”He ran a huge race,” said jockey Robby Albarado after the race. “The winner has been over the track a couple of times already.

Trained by Ralph Nicks, Flying Pegasus is a homebred son of Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus out of Lilly Capote, a Grade 3 winner at 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs. Flying Pegasus is a full brother to Mythical Pegasus, a Grade 2-placed sprinter as a juvenile, and is a half-brother to America’s Storm, a $3.6M yearling purchase that was multiple stakes-placed between eight and nine furlongs. The second dam, London Lil, won the Grade 3 La Prevoyante Handicap at 1 1/8 miles.

UNO MAS was one of three horses in the Risen Star trained by defending Eclipse winner Steve Asmussen, and the green runner continues to show slight improvement with each and every race. He raced in the three path for the first three furlongs before being forced four wide going into the turn. Uno Mas exchanged a good bump with the winner at the head of the stretch, and his inexperience showed itself once again when he changed back to his wrong racing lead in the final sixteenth of a mile. Uno Mas has potential, but he has yet to put it all together.

Nick Zito is always dangerous with late-developing three-year-olds, and his NOWHERE TO HIDE gave a good account of himself shipping in from South Florida. A $250,000 yearling purchase, the son of Vindication broke well from the gate, and soon tucked into the pocket position behind the ground-saving pacesetter. He angled three wide at the top of the stretch, finished evenly for fourth, and galloped out nicely. This was only Nowhere to Hide’s first start out of the maiden ranks, and he has scope for improvement. The second dam, Daijin, was a multiple stakes-winning full sister to Belmont Stakes winner Touch Gold from the female family of the classy With Approval.

Favored GIANT OAK didn’t have an easy trip under Edgar Prado. The hulking son of Giant’s Causeway broke a half-length slow, and then attempted to settle in the two path near the back of the field. He dragged Prado to a stalking position while in and among horses on the backstretch, and the two were soon shuffled back a bit entering the final turn. Giant Oak then had to wait for room while in behind runners, and was forced to alter course to the far outside in upper stretch. He passed a few tired horses in the lane, and deserves another chance although he’ll likely be over bet next time due to this trip. He also showed some noticeable kidney sweat, and may be prone to getting nervous in the paddock and post parade.

While Giant Oak’s troubled journey grabbed the headlines, SOUL WARRIOR may be the trip horse to follow. The Asmussen-trained son of Kentucky Derby runner-up Lion Heart sold for $290,000 as a juvenile, and he took the first turn three wide. He was taken back to last place, was maneuvered to the inside under Pat Valenzuela, and was in the midst of a premature midrace rail move when he was forced to check hard. Soul Warrior remained inside until upper stretch. He finished evenly, but considering it was only his first start out of the maiden ranks, this race can be looked upon as a strong learning experience. He is a half-brother to the fleet stakes-winning sprinter My Miss Storm Cat, a 111 Beyer performer at six furlongs. The second dam, Chaldea, was a multiple graded stakes winner. This pedigree may be a bit suspect as the distances increase.

INDYGO MOUNTAIN was the hype horse entering the Fair Grounds meet, but the bloom was off the rose following multiple foot problems, and a poor performance in the Lecomte. He stalked the pace while just off the rail down the backstretch, and then was three wide while in between rivals entering the far turn. He had his chances from three furlongs out, but was merely going up and down the final eighth of a mile. He needs a rest, a drop to a confidence-building condition, or both.

AU MOON, the reluctant pacesetter of the Lecomte, was assured of a more preferred stalking spot after drawing the far outside post position. He raced four wide going into the first turn before relaxing near the back while three deep. He stayed far behind into the stretch, angled widest, and failed to threaten while racing on his wrong lead. This was a rather disappointing performance.

DUMAR settled in midpack while between foes, and was four wide in between entering the final bend. He raced wide turning for home, but was late to change leads, and flattened out in the final furlong.

IT HAPPENED AGAIN, also trained by Larry Jones, set the pace while hounded by a 243-1 shot. He offered no response when Friesan Fire made his bid on the turn, and tired very badly along the inside.

MAP OF THE WORLD saved ground in midpack, and was one-paced in the stretch while racing on his wrong lead.

SUMMER’S EMPIRE raced three wide for the first three furlongs, then ended up five paths off the rail late on the backstretch. He continued wide into the stretch, and was bumped while a very tired horse at the quarter pole.

CODE OF HONOUR broke well, but was still four wide going into the first turn. He pressed the early leader while two wide and faltered badly in the stretch while late to change leads.

Grade: B+
The top two finishers seem like quality horses, Uno Mas and Nowhere to Hide have room for improvement, and Giant Oak and Soul Warrior had difficult trips. There were legitimate stakes horses contesting this race, and it looks like a solid prep.

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Holy Bull Stakes

By Dan Illman - Posted 2/12/09

Trip Summary: Despite being bounced around the calendar in recent years, the Holy Bull Stakes has been a productive Triple Crown prep race. Go for Gin took the 1994 running of the Holy Bull, then known as the Preview Stakes, en route to wearing the roses on the first Saturday in May. Two years later, Holy Bull runner-up Editor’s Note prevailed in the Belmont Stakes. In 2006, Barbaro marched through the Holy Bull on his way to a winning performance at Churchill Downs.

Two of the public choices, WEST SIDE BERNIE and BEETHOVEN, drew the hazardous outside posts in the Holy Bull, lost valuable ground at various points of the race, and should be given extra points for finishing close to the long shot exacta finishers, SARATOGA SINNER and BEAR’S ROCKET.

The winner, Saratoga Sinner, will not be competing in the Triple Crown as it was discovered soon after the race that he suffered a chipped knee, and will have to undergo surgery. A son of multiple nine-furlong graded winner Harlan’s Holiday, Saratoga Sinner was a maiden winner at the distance earlier in the Gulfstream meet, and used his good tactical speed to prime advantage in the Holy Bull. He tracked the pacesetting Bear’s Rocket from the two path, engaged that one in earnest from between rivals on the far turn, and wore down his stubborn foe in the final eighth of a mile.

Bear’s Rocket was making his first start on a dirt surface as he spent his entire juvenile campaign at trainer Reade Baker’s home base of Woodbine. Dismissed as the longest shot on the board, Bear’s Rocket bounced to the early lead, and set the pace while saving ground. When Saratoga Sinner emerged on Bear’s Rocket’s flank at the quarter-pole, the pacesetter’s rider, Kent Desormeaux, gave his mount a good whack with the left hand. That seemed to revitalize Bear’s Rocket, who dug in grimly along the rail for the place. There are some classy names in Bear’s Rocket’s pedigree. His sire, Lion Heart, won the Haskell Invitational at nine furlongs, and finished second to Smarty Jones in the Kentucky Derby. Deep in the female family are Grade 1 winners and/or successful sires Tappiano, A.P Jet, Tentam, and Known Fact.

West Side Bernie’s outside post position forced jockey Elvis Trujillo’s hand from the get-go. Instead of being forced wide going into the first turn, Trujillo took the winner of the Grade 3 Kentucky Cup Juvenile immediately to the back of the pack, conceding ground in the process. Despite only racing two wide in the early furlongs, West Side Bernie was forced to commence a five wide rally from the back of the pack on the far turn, and was spun four wide turning for home. He finished evenly, and deserves another chance to make an impact at this level. A son of the good European turf sprinter Bernstein, West Side Bernie sold for $67,000 as a short yearling before being purchased for $50,000 at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale in 2007. There are several sprint influences in this pedigree, and West Side Bernie will be a bit of a question mark if he is to try ten furlongs on Derby day.

Beethoven, the winner of the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club last year at Churchill Downs, broke from the far outside post position. Unlike Trujillo, who decided to save ground leaving the gate, Beethoven’s jockey, Calvin Borel, decided to risk the quick run into the first turn, and was rewarded by being hung four wide around the bend. Beethoven tracked the pace while three wide and in between horses, and advanced three paths off the rail on the final turn. He got to within a neck of the leaders before finishing evenly in the stretch. This was a solid effort for a colt going nine furlongs in his first start of the year. Considering the ground loss, Beethoven ran a pretty good one in the Holy Bull. Beethoven’s sire, Sky Mesa, won the Grade 1 Hopeful as a juvenile, and successfully stretched his speed to 1 1/16 miles in the Grade 2 Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. The dam, Moonlight Sonata, by noted sprint influence Carson City (also the broodmare sire of Barbaro), won the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Lassie around a one-turn mile as a two-year-old.

STATELY CHARACTER broke slowly under Herb McCauley, and was taken immediately to the rail. He raced far back for five furlongs, was late to change leads in the stretch, and finished evenly between horses. He doesn’t seem like a Derby candidate.

BRUCE N AUTUMN tracked the pacesetter while saving ground, but was under a ride a half-mile from the wire, and made no impact. He may benefit from a return to turf in the future.

DANGER TO SOCIETY was bet to favoritism based on his impressive nine-furlong allowance score at Gulfstream on January 8. A $300,000 son of Harlan’s Holiday from the family of Kentucky Derby and Preakness hero Silver Charm, Danger to Society raced in and among horses while in tracking the pace from the two path on the backstretch, but was under a heavy hand ride entering the turn, and steadily tired from two furlongs out. It’s possible he needs more time between races as he wheeled back here on only 23 days rest. Danger to Society was transferred to trainer Richard Dutrow Jr.’s barn following the Holy Bull.

ROCKLAND, a son of Smarty Jones trained by Barbaro’s conditioner, Michael Matz, broke well, and raced three wide going into the first turn. He was able to save ground in midpack for most of the trip, and was in behind horses for just a second on the far turn. He didn’t threaten when angled out for the stretch drive, and is another one that may prosper switching back to grass.

EL CRESPO is a promising turf runner, but was simply out of his element on the main track. He raced in midpack from the two path, and then steadily advanced to stalk the pace three wide entering the turn. He split runners from that path, but soon tired, and was very early to switch to his right lead. IDOL MAKER, a green son of Belmont winner Empire Maker, took the worst of it from a ground loss standpoint. He tracked the leaders while four wide throughout and steadily retreated three-eighths from home.

Grade: C
I'm not sure what we learned from this race. The winner is already off the Triple Crown trail due to injury, and the runner-up has yet to win on dirt. Beethoven and West Side Bernie both deserve another chance, but there are questions pertaining to their true quality.

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Hutcheson Stakes

By Dan Illman - Posted 2/12/09

Trip Summary: The seven-furlong Hutcheson has been a fixture on the South Florida stakes schedule since Buttevant won the inaugural running in 1954, but it hasn’t proven to be a quality Triple Crown prep since the mid-1980’s when Crème Fraiche (2nd – 1985) emerged to win the Belmont Stakes for the late Woody Stephens. The previous year, Stephens used the Hutcheson as a winning steppingstone for Swale, the 1984 Kentucky Derby and Belmont king. In 1979, Spectacular Bid won the Hutcheson en route to grasping the first two legs of the Triple Crown. Nowadays, the Hutcheson usually highlights promising sprinters or milers, but its valuable graded earnings are often a lure for connections looking for a path to Louisville.

This year’s renewal featured a strong cast with CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN grabbing top honors for trainer Ian Wilkes, the former assistant to Hall of Fame conditioner, and two-time Kentucky Derby winner, Carl Nafzger. Capt. Candyman Can was a runaway debut winner at the boutique Saratoga meet at two, and then was the beaten favorite in the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Futurity over the polytrack. He returned to win the Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs before becoming rank in his two-turn debut in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club on November 29. The excess energy wasted in the opening stages of the Kentucky Jockey Club sapped his stretch stamina, and Capt. Candyman Can finished third, a half-length behind Beethoven.

Wilkes wanted to see Capt. Candyman Can relax in the Hutcheson, and the trainer had to be pleased with the result. After breaking smartly under jockey Julien Leparoux, Capt. Candyman Can engaged in a three-ply pace battle while down on the rail for the first quarter-mile. Leparoux wisely eased off the impending duel, angled his willing colt three wide entering the turn, and peeked back confidently at the three-eighths pole. Turning into the stretch, Capt. Candyman Can was in full flight, and he ran professionally to the wire, a promising sight for onlookers worried about a gelding that had shown signs of greenness in previous races.

The questions surrounding Capt. Candyman Can are those that are asked of most Hutcheson winners. How far does he want to go? Will he relax sufficiently enough to successfully navigate the demanding Derby distance on the first Saturday in May?

Capt. Candyman Can is by the unbeaten Candy Ride, a champion miler in his native Argentina, and winner of the ten-furlong Pacific Classic at Del Mar. A bargain $25,000 yearling purchase, Capt. Candyman Can is out of Stormy Way (by Storm Creek), the winner of the seven-furlong Explosive Red Stakes on turf at Fort Erie.

HELLO BROADWAY ran well considering he reportedly missed four days of valuable training time leading up to the Hutcheson due to sickness. The homebred half-brother to Grade 1 Wood Memorial winner Nobiz Like Shobiz left the machine best of all, and dueled for the lead while in between rivals. After the winner backed off the pace, Hello Broadway inherited the rail, but was still caught up in a speed battle with ROCKETING RETURNS. He put his pace opponent away at the quarter-pole, but had no real response for Capt. Candyman Can’s final surge. Hello Broadway dug in gamely in the final eighth of a mile despite showing a willingness to drift out nearing the wire. Trained by Barclay Tagg, famed for guiding the career of Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide, Hello Broadway can move forward of this race.

BEE CEE CEE was the only Hutcheson performer with a race in 2009, and the third-place finisher of the $100,000 Spectacular Bid Stakes on January 3, picked up some of the pieces once more. After breaking awkwardly, Bee Cee Cee settled into a decent spot stalking the pace. He lost ground on the turn as the leaders sped through the second quarter, and was bumped onto his wrong lead while easing out in upper stretch. He soon righted himself, and finished evenly on the outside.

SALO JAK, the winner of the Jack Price Juvenile for Florida-breds at Calder, was riding a three-race win streak into the Hutcheson, but found this company too tough. He was outsprinted for the first half-mile, but rallied mildly once he switched leads in upper stretch. He galloped out well after the race, and should last at least a mile in the future.

Rocketing Returns, a son of Grade 3 winner Spring Meadow, trained by Nick Zito, stepped up in class following a pair of sprint wins, but didn’t have the easiest of trips under Eibar Coa. The duo dueled for the early lead while three paths off the rail, then battled outside Hello Broadway on the turn. The quick second quarter took its toll, and Rocketing Returns steadily retreated during the final two furlongs. He’s probably not a Derby horse, but deserves another chance at the ‘n2x’ allowance level.

BREAK WATER EDISON’s performance was puzzling to most observers. The winner of the Grade 3 Nashua Stakes as a two-year-old, the son of Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid was considered a leading Derby candidate before this disastrous run. Jockey Alan Garcia had Break Water Edison relaxing in a perfect spot off the early three-ply duel, but Break Water Edison never responded, and was a beaten horse when bumped by Salo Jak in upper stretch.

Grade: C +
This was a good edition of the Hutcheson, but the top two finishers have some question marks. Will Capt. Candyman Can be able to relax in longer races? Can Hello Broadway be as effective around two turns? Can we really simply throw out Break Water Edison's non-effort? The feeling is that these are good three-year-olds, but they may have distance limitations.

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San Rafael Stakes

By Dan Illman - Posted 2/10/09

Trip Summary:  The San Rafael has produced classic winners Timber Country (3rd, 1995), Tabasco Cat (1st, 1994), A.P. Indy (1st, 1992, and Ferdinand (2nd, 1986), and must be considered a valuable Kentucky Derby prep race despite its early placing on the calendar. 

This year's renewal may prove difficult to analyze as likely pacesetter BROTHER KEITH bolted on the first turn, and conceded his early advantage.  That allowed THE PAMPLEMOUSSE to grab the lead, a lead he never relinquished.

A gray son of Kafwain, the winner of the Grade 2 Norfolk Stakes at 1 1/16 miles and the Grade 2 San Vicente at seven furlongs, The Pamplemousse was sold for $80,000 as a yearling before being pinhooked for $150,000 at the OBS Juvenile sale in March of 2008.  He is out of multiple sprint winner Comfort Zone, by top miler Rubiano.  The second dam, So Cozy (by Lyphard), was a stakes-winner at two while the third dam, Special Warmth (by Lucky Mike), won the 1976 Arlington-Washington Lassie.

The Pamplemousse had won his maiden in his final start at two, and was turning back a half-furlong for the San Rafael.  After Brother Keith's untimely miscue, Alex Solis sent The Pamplemousse to the lead, and the pair set an uncontested pace while off the rail.  The others came to The Pamplemousse at the quarter-pole, but the gray kicked in once again to score by a comfortable two lengths despite drifting in throughout the final furlong. 

Although a good-bodied individual, The Pamplemousse's pedigree is a bit suspect for the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles, and he has somewhat of a paddler's stride.  It will be interesting to see how he responds to a possibly more difficult pace scenario next time out, but his connections were impressed with this performance. 

"I'm speechless, I really am," said Solis after the San Rafael.  "This horse has such a high cruising speed...It feels like he's walking, he's doing everything so effortlessly." 

Added trainer Julio Canani, "He's developing mentally and physically.  He's awkward because he's growing and growing.  He's huge, but he's got a great mind and I've got no problems with him.  He re-broke in the stretch when Square Eddie came to him, but he's much better when he follows somebody."

SQUARE EDDIE was sent off the odds-on choice after a quality juvenile campaign that saw the British import win the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland before finishing a close third in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile over this surface.  He was bumped at the start, and was spun three wide going into the first turn.  He didn't lose much ground, however, and soon found himself tracking the winner while two wide.  Square Eddie made his bid on the far bend, and got to The Pamplemousse's flank before being rebuffed.  He seemed tired in the stretch as he drifted in during the final sixteenth, but galloped out nicely past The Pamplemousse. 

Trainer Doug O'Neill was pleased with the effort.  "He should definitely move forward off this," said O'Neill after the race, "He got tired.  It was his first race in almost three months.  Obviously, we wanted to win, but the main thing is for him to come out of this good and go in the right direction."

RYEHILL DREAMER was privately purchased by Marsha Naify after finishing second in the Group 2 Futurity Stakes at the Curragh in Ireland.  Making his first start since August 23, and his first start on the main track, Ryehill Dreamer bumped with Square Eddie coming out of the gate, but received a good trip stalking the pace.  He made a three wide bid on the far turn before flattening out a bit in the final furlong.  Trainer John Shirreffs isn't one to push his runners off a layoff, and Ryehill Dreamer can be expected to improve next time out.

BROTHER KEITH, making his first start since a debut win at Churchill Downs on November 8 for trainer Bobby Frankel, broke on top, but was very rank, and bolted to the four path on the clubhouse turn.  By the time he regained his wits, he was far, far back, and had no chance to win.  Jockey Garrett Gomez persevered, however, and Brother Keith rallied mildly along the inside for fourth money. A $67,000 short yearling, Brother Keith was purchased again for $150,000 at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale in 2007.  By the long-winded Breeders' Cup Turf winner Johar out of a sprint-winning mare, Brother Keith has some ability, but can't be completely trusted until his mind catches up with his body.

Like Ryehill Dreamer, FIDDLERS AFLEET was making his first start following a private purchase.  Trying a synthetic surface for the first time, he tracked the pace while saving ground, but failed to threaten, and was a bit late changing leads in the stretch. He may appreciate a return to a dirt track. 

Grade: C
The obvious question surrounding these horses is whether they will handle dirt. The Pampemousse's good speed is a valuable asset, but he did shake loose on the lead when Brother Keith blew the first turn. It will be interesting to see how he handles additional pressure down the road. Square Eddie received a nice prep, but he's been injured since this race, and is questionable for the Derby. Ryehill Dreamer may be an intriguing longshot to follow.

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Lecomte Stakes

By Dan Illman - Posted 2/10/09

Trip Summary:  The year's first graded stake for three-year-olds, the Lecomte at the Fair Grounds, dates back to 1943.  Risen Star, the Kentucky Derby runner-up before winning the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, finished second to Pastourelles in the 1988 running while Hard Spun won the 2007 renewal en route to a second-place finish in the Run for the Roses.  The Lecomte generally isn't considered the strongest Kentucky Derby prep, but its valuable graded earnings attract would-be Triple Crown hopefuls hoping to start the year on the right foot. 

Trainer Larry Jones guided Hard Spun's career, and he has a similarly-tactical colt in FRIESAN FIRE, a $725,000 buyback at the 2007 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.  By top sire A.P. Indy out of 7 1/2 furlong Coolmore Classic (Group 1-Australia) heroine Bollinger, Friesan Fire's pedigree is loaded with class.  His second dam, Bint Marscay, won the Group 1 Golden Slipper Stakes at five furlongs in her native Australia. 

In the Lecomte, Friesan Fire broke sweetly from the inside post and soon found a perfect spot tracking the pacesetters while saving ground.  Jockey Gabriel Saez angled Friesan Fire three wide entering the final turn, and the bay colt was in full flight while in front turning for home.  He professionally changed leads, kept a straight path, and ran hard all the way through the wire.
Jones, who also trains leading Derby contender Old Fashioned, indicated the Grade 3 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds on February 7 would be Friesan Fire's next likely start. 

PATENA, a $250,000 yearling by Seeking the Gold, may be the one to watch out of the Lecomte. The first foal out of multiple stakes-winner Handpainted from the female family of With Approval and Touch Gold was making his first start on dirt after campaigning in Canada as a juvenile.  He settled in the two path while in midpack early on the backstretch, and then split horses entering the turn.  Jockey Robby Albarado angled Patena out on the final bend, and they were slowly eating into Friesan Fire's winning margin in the stretch.  Patena is bred to run long, and galloped out nicely after the race.  He may have been compromised by the middling pace and short stretch of the mile run at Fair Grounds, and sports the look of an interesting Derby prospect.
AU MOON sold for $130,000 as a yearling, and was making his first start against winners after graduating at nine furlongs at Churchill Downs in November.  He was a reluctant pacesetter in the Lecomte as none of the expected early leaders wanted the front positions.  Despite the moderate pace, Au Moon was hounded for the first half-mile by 70-1 chance CITIZEN.  Au Moon shrugged off that challenger entering the final turn, but had no response when Friesan Fire called at the quarter-pole.  A lightly-raced son of Malibu Moon, Au Moon will likely revert to pace-tracking tactics in his next start, possibly to come in the Risen Star. 

UNO MAS looked very green in his local allowance win on December 18, but seemed more professional for defending Eclipse Award-winning trainer Steve Asmussen.  Taken three to four paths off the rail for most of the way by jockey Shaun Bridgmohan, Uno Mas finished with a solid rally.  Like Patena, he may have been adversely affected by the slow pace and short stretch.  Uno Mas seems to be improving, and is certainly in the right hands.

BIG PUSH, a stretch-out sprinter, was expected to set or contest the pace, but inexplicably was rated by jockey Miguel Mena.  He found a comfortably spot by his lonesome in stalking position, but was briefly four wide entering the far turn, and was under stiff pressure three furlongs out.  Widest entering the stretch, he failed to make a late impact, and doesn't seem like a Derby prospect.

INDYGO MOUNTAIN’s participation in the Lecomte was questionable after the A.P. Indy colt suffered nagging foot problems in the month leading up to the race. A $600,000 yearling out of sprint stakes-winner Mountain Girl from the family of Grade 1 winner Siphonic, Indygo Mountain lost two lengths after bobbling at the break, and he settled into last place entering the backstretch.  He split rivals late on the straight, but was outpaced, and forced to wait in behind opponents for a second.  He never threatened thereafter, however.  Indygo Mountain can improve off this race, but there will be lingering concerns about his physical condition until he comes up with a winning effort.

CITIZEN broke a half-length slow, and then was hustled up to pressure Au Moon for a half-mile.  He failed to keep up when the real running began.  DYNAMIC FORCE was off a length slow, and then was shuffled back slightly entering the final turn while saving ground.  He never made an impact. 

Grade: B-
Friesan Fire and Patena both look like quality runners with the latter, a recent acquisition by IEAH Stables, likely to improve as the distances increase. Uno Mas seems to be improving, but looks a cut below the top two.

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