Pioneer of the Nile

2009 Prep Recap

Date	Trk	Race	Chart	Distance	Time	BSF	Video
2/7	SA	Robert B Lewis (G2)	Chart	1 1/16m	1:41.90	94
3/14	SA	San Felipe (G2)	Chart	1 1/16m	1:43.35	90
4/4	SA	Santa Anita Derby (G1)	Chart	1 1/8 m	1:49.17	96

Profile by Michael Hammersly

Strengths: Speed-figure devotees may not love him, but if you like a horse who wins races, then he ranks high on your list. He's rattled off four straight wins in Southern California, including two Grade 1's (CashCall Futurity, Santa Anita Derby). Not only has he been winning, but his form has been flattered. Among those he has vanquished are I Want Revenge (won Grade 1 Wood, Grade 3 Gotham), Papa Clem (Grade 2 Arkansas Derby), and Chocolate Candy (Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby). His trainer, Bob Baffert, also knows how to navigate the Derby trail, having won previous editions with Silver Charm, Real Quiet, and War Emblem.

Weaknesses: As mentioned above, the one thing he has not done yet is run fast. The Derby will also mark his first dirt attempt after racing solely on synthetics and turf. However, his sire, Empire Maker, was a multiple Grade 1 dirt winner.

Strategy: Doesn't yet seem to have a style. Then again, that may mean he's versatile enough to do whatever it takes. He was very eager and pulling behind the slow pace of the Santa Anita Derby, so he will have to relax better. He's shown that if he relaxes, he can muster a strong late run.

Value: He's the most polarizing of Derby entrants. People either love his chances or completely dismiss him. That may help boost your price, but expect something in the 6-1 range.

Pedigree Analysis By Dan Illman

Dosage Profile: 8-7-5-0-2
Dosage Index:  3.89
Center of Distribution: 0.86
Auction:  $290,000 yearling

Sire - Empire Maker finished second behind Funny Cide in the 2003 Kentucky Derby, but rebounded to deny that rival the Triple Crown five weeks later in the Belmont Stakes at 1 1/2 miles. 
Empire Maker's sire, Unbridled, won the Derby in 1990. Unbridled's son, Grindstone, took home the 1996 renewal.  Empire Maker is out of the dominant broodmare, Toussaud, and he earned Beyers of 110 or greater in three races at distances between nine and twelve furlongs. 
The Empire Maker - Lord At War breeding 'nick' has produced Icon Project, a Grade 2-placed performer at 12 furlongs on grass.  Icon Project won her maiden going that distance on turf in England.

Dam - Star of Goshen, a $175,000 purchase as a juvenile, won the La Troienne Stakes at seven furlongs at Churchill Downs with a career-best 103 Beyer Speed Figure.  She was able to stretch her speed around two turns with an entry-level allowance win at a mile at Santa Anita. 
Star of Goshen has already produced Forefathers, a multiple Graded-placed sprinter/miler by Gone West.  Forefathers is 1-7 at a mile or longer, and has never won around two turns. 
Star of Goshen is a half-sister to Powis Castle, a multiple graded stakes-winning sprinter that finished eighth in the 1994 Kentucky Derby.  His longest win came around two turns in the Oceanside Stakes on grass at one mile.
Notable stakes winners from this family include Decathlon, a 25-time winner of over $250,000 in the 1950's, and Hollywood Gold Cup winner Prince Blessed.

Outlook - Pioneerof the Nile has handled nine furlongs without a problem, and his long stride coupled with the stout top-half of the pedigree indicate that 1 1/4 miles will be within his scope.  Although we don't know how he'll handle dirt, there seems to be enough main track ability in his female family to suggest he'll take to the surface.