Musket Man

2009 Prep Recap

Date	Trk	Race	Chart	Distance	Time	BSF	Video
1/17	TAM	Pasco	Chart	7 fur.	1:23.06	92
2/14	TAM	Sam F. Davis (G3)	Chart	1 1/16 m	1:43.54	91
3/14	TAM	Tampa Bay Derby (G3)	Chart	1 1/16 m	1:43.67	90
4/4	HAW	Illinois Derby (G2)	Chart	1 1/8 m	1:49.91	98

Profile by Marcus Hersh

STRENGTHS: He has won 5 of 6 starts, and is a proven winner. He has a 2-year-old foundation and has run in four stakes at3, winning at nine furlongs while going his final eighth-mile in about 12.60 seconds in his Derby prep. Has won at four venues, strongly suggesting he carries his track with him. He has beaten Giant Oak, who qualified for the Derby on earnings but passed, and two Derby horses, General Quarters and Join in the Dance.

WEAKNESSES: He has yet to face any of the perceived top contenders. He is a May foal. He’s won at nine furlongs but has a middle-distance pedigree that could trip him up at 1 1/4 miles. He has not impressed clockers with Churchill drills or gallops.

STRATEGY: Trainer Derek Ryan calls Musket Man “an easy horse to ride,” and Ryan should know, since he sometimes gallops the horse himself. Musket Man has tactical speed and should be placed in the second flight. With the apparent lack of speed horses, he could be as close as fifth down the backstretch, but it would be no surprise if he’s eighth to 10th, either. Jockey Eibar Coa said the horse responds quickly when asked. Coa thought Musket Man eased up late in the Illinois Derby. He figures to move for position on the far turn and will try not to hit the front too soon in the stretch – provided he can hit it at all.

VALUE: With low-profile connections, no triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures, and little buzz in terms of morning training, Musket Man will almost certainly offer a fair price.

Pedigree Analysis by Dan Illman

Dosage Profile:  5-1-4-0-0
Dosage Index:  4.00
Center of Distribution: 1.10
Auction:  $15,000 yearling, $35,000 RNA juvenile

Sire:  Yonaguska was a brilliant sprinter.  He won the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes in a dead-heat with City Zip as a juvenile, and then won three graded stakes between 6 and 7 furlongs the following season.  He earned a career-best 107 Beyer Speed Figure in winning the Grade 3 Sport Page Handicap at 6 1/2 furlongs. Yonaguska raced three times in routes.  His best finish going long was a third in the Grade 1 Champagne around a one-turn mile and a sixteenth.
Yonaguska's sire, Cherokee Run, finished second in the 1993 Preakness.

Dam:  Fortuesque earned blacktype when being put up to third via disqualification in the Susan's Girl division of the Florida Stallion Stakes at six furlongs.  She raced once past a mile in her career, finishing last of five in a $32,000 optional claimer. 
Notable names deep in the female family include Silent Screen, the third-place finisher of the 1970 Preakness Stakes, Grade 3 winner Belladora, Test Stakes winner Time for Bed, Ashland Stakes winner Drowsy, and Spinaway Stakes winner Sunday Evening.

Outlook:  Musket Man has been a terrific surprise for his connections, but the clock may strike midnight on this Cinderella story in the Derby.  He appeared tired when switching back to his wrong lead in the waning moments of the nine-furlong Illinois Derby, and his sprint pedigree looks ill-suited for the Derby distance.