Mr. Hot Stuff

2009 Prep Recap

Date	Trk	Race	Chart	Distance	Time	BSF	Video
1/17	SA	Maiden Special Weight 47K	Chart	1 1/16m	1:44	71	N/A
2/1	SA	Maiden Special Weight 46K	Chart	1 m	1:44	96	N/A
2/28	SA	Sham Stakes	Chart	1 1/8m	1:47	90
4/4	SA	Santa Anita Derby (G1)	Chart	1 1/8m	1:49	93

Profile by Byron King

STRENGTHS: Being by two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow and a full brother to Travers winner Colonel John, he has the pedigree to love the Derby’s 1 1/4-mile distance. He also finishes like a horse that should love the stretch-out in distance. When racing in the paceless 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby, he finished strongest to be third, and galloped out well past the finish. A late developer, he has taken great strides in recent months and could have room for more improvement.

WEAKNESSES: The talent is there, but trainer Eoin Harty has said the colt is still learning the game. Heading into a race like the Derby, Mr. Hot Stuff can’t afford any mental mistakes. Like others in the field, most notably Pioneerof the Nile, he has not raced on a dirt track. Unless he jumps up on dirt as I Want Revenge did, Mr. Hot Stuff does not appear fast enough to win. His top Beyer Speed Figure is just a 96, and he posted merely a 93 Beyer in his final Derby prep, the Santa Anita Derby.

STRATEGY: Being a closer, the tactics are simple: sit back and make a late run, hopefully following a horse moving well in front of him and avoiding a wide trip.

VALUE: Here is where the news is promising – for those with faith. He closed at 96-1 in the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool. Although he won’t be that fat of a price on Derby Day, he should be 30-1 or higher.

Pedigree Analysis by Dan Illman

Dosage Profile: 4-1-9-0-0
Dosage Index:  2.11
Center of Distribution:  0.64
Auction:  $200,000 yearling

Sire:  The late-blooming California-bred Tiznow emerged from relative obscurity to become one of the more popular racers in recent years.  A true stayer, Tiznow won back-to-back runnings of the Breeders' Cup Classic, and also took home the big trophy in the Santa Anita Handicap.  He earned Beyer Speed Figures of 115 or greater in five races, and won four of five starts at 1 1/4 miles. 
Not surprisingly, many of Tiznow's progeny excel in longer-distance races.  Well Armed won the Dubai World Cup at 1 1/4 Miles.  Da'Tara upset Big Brown's Triple Crown dreams in last year's Belmont Stakes.  Tizdejavu went gate-to-wire in the Grade 2 American Derby at 1 3/16 miles on the grass in 2008. 
Tiznow is a full brother to Budroyale, a $2.8M earner that finished second to Cat Thief in the 1999 Breeders' Cup Classic.

Dam:  Sweet Damsel, a $9,500 yearling that resold for $41,000 the following season, won five races at one mile.  She has already foaled Caroline's Gold, a stakes-placed runner at 1 1/16 miles, but her most famous baby is Colonel John.  A full brother to Mr. Hot Stuff, Colonel John finished sixth in last year's Kentucky Derby after winning the Sham Stakes and Santa Anita Derby at nine furlongs.  Colonel John shipped to Saratoga over the summer to win the Grade 1 Travers at 1 1/4 miles before finishing sixth in the Breeders' Cup Classic.    
Mr. Hot Stuff's second dam, Grande Dame, was a stakes-winner, and her dam, Fia, finished third in the 1977 Coaching Club American Oaks.

Outlook:  Mr. Hot Stuff is still a bit green, and he has yet to race on anything but synthetic surfaces, but his full brother handled both the distance and surface just fine in last year's Travers.  Mr. Hot Stuff shouldn't have a problem with the trip.