Hold Me Back

2009 Prep Recap

Date	Trk	Race	Chart	Distance	Time	BSF	Video
3/21	TP	Lane's End (G2)	Chart	1 1/8 m	1:49.63	97
4/11	KEE	Blue Grass (G1)	Chart	1 1/8 m	1:49	93

Profile by Kenny Peck

Strengths: He has a Hall of Famer in his corner in trainer Bill Mott, and he certainly seems to be moving in the right direction. His Beyer Figures in 2009 have improved dramatically, and he closed well when second in the Blue Grass despite racing behind a slow pace.

Weaknesses: He has yet to face the best of his generation, let alone beat a top Derby contender. The only time he faced Triple Crown-caliber runners was in the Remsen last year at Aqueduct, and he was well up the track behind Old Fashioned, who was among the favorites for the Derby this year before he was sidelined with an injury. His lack of speed means he's reliant on the pace, and there's not an overabundance of it in this year's Derby. His running style also means a greater likelihood of traffic troubles in a 20-horse field. Finally, his Beyers don't stack up to those of the top contenders.

Strategy: With his running style, there's little for him to do except take back off the pace, try to stay out of traffic, and hope for fast fractions. If the speeds come back to him he'll look to pick up a piece or two late.

Value: He'll be a big price thanks to his light Beyers and resume. His running style, which is usually a plus in the Kentucky Derby, works against him in this fairly paceless edition of the race. He's going to have a tough time hitting the board if he's trying to close into below-average fractions.

Pedigree Analysis by Dan Illman

Dosage Profile:  5-6-9-0-0
Dosage Index:  3.44
Center of Distribution:  0.80
Auction:  $400,000 yearling

Sire - After blistering through his first three starts as a juvenile with amazing ease, Giant's Causeway enjoyed a tremendous season as a three-year-old. After finishing second in both the English and Irish 2000 Guineas, Giant's Causeway ran the table in five straight Group 1 races between a mile and 1 5/16 miles on the grass.  His only race on dirt, and in North America, came in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs.  Giant's Causeway again ran a corker, but came up a neck shy to Tiznow despite putting up a 116 Beyer Speed Figure. 
Giant's Causeway's progeny tend to do best on grass, but his sons, Fairbanks and Frost Giant, took last year's Hawthorne Gold Cup and Suburban Handicap respectively on dirt at 1 1/4 miles.  Another son, Red Giant, won the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch at 1 1/4 miles on the grass in 2008 while Heatseeker won the Santa Anita Handicap at that distance over a synthetic surface.  Shamardal, arguably the best son of Giant's Causeway, won the French Derby at About 1 5/16 miles.

Dam - Restraint, a $180,000 yearling purchase, was unraced.  She has already foaled Maria Pia, a stakes-placed performer at 1 1/16 miles.  Restraint is a half-sister to Freedom Fleet, a stakes-winner at 1 1/16 miles that finished second in the Queen's Plate at 1 1/4 miles.  Stakes-winner Adarling, Grade 2-placed router Crown Collection, and stakes-placed sprinter Von Fleet are also half-siblings to Restraint. 
Hold Me Back's second dam, Avowal, won eight stakes including the Canadian Oaks and the Grade 3 Ontario Colleen Stakes.
Other notables in the pedigree include multiple stakes-winners Ambiopoise and Algasir.

Outlook:  Hold Me Back's pedigree coupled with his race record and long stride make him an ideal candidate to successfully handle 1 1/4 miles.  His big races have come on synthetics and the Giant's Causeways may eventually do their best racing on turf and all-weather surfaces.