Friesan Fire

2009 Prep Recap

Date	Trk	Race	Chart	Distance	Time	BSF	Video
1/10	FG	Lecomte (G3)	Chart	1 m	1:37.67	94
2/7	FG	Risen Star (G3)	Chart	1 1/16m	1:45.11	97
3/14	FG	Louisiana Derby(G2)	Chart	1 1/16m	1:43:46	104

Profile by Jim Kachulis

Strengths: This colt's seven-week layoff since his last victory will dissuade some bettors, while his most recent workout, a brilliant five-eighths over the Churchill Downs surface, will entice others. He has shown a superior rallying gear, especially in the last victory, when he easily dispatched Papa Clem, who subsequently won the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby in quality time. From world-class runner and sire A.P. Indy, Friesan Fire became a new horse with the addition of blinkers, and the middle moves he used in the last three victories were eye-catching.

Weaknesses: The major shortcomings to this talented performer are the lengthy hiatus and the fact that he has never faced Grade 1 competition. He has raced beyond a mile only twice and spots valuable experience in that department to some of the prime contenders.

Strategy: Already having proved himself an effective stalker, Friesan Fire would be in ideal position if he can stay within five lengths or so of the early leaders. If he can avoid traffic troubles or a dismal post position draw, he should be able to stay within range and launch a swift, and potent, midpack move.

Value: It is exceptionally difficult, even for an oddsmaker with decades of experience, to make an accurate morning line of a 20-horse field. It is estimated that Friesan Fire will go to post at approximately 8-1, making his odds offered in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (25-1, 21-1 and 18-1 in pools 1, 2, 3, respectively) seem quite the bargain.

Pedigree Analysis By Dan Illman

Dosage Profile:  5-12-17-0-0
Dosage Index:  3.00
Center of Distribution: 0.65
Auction:  $725,000 RNA yearling

Sire:  Arguably the best sire in North America, A.P. Indy won the Belmont Stakes with a 111 Beyer Speed Figure and the Breeders' Cup Classic with a 114 during his racing career.  He has sired numerous stakes winners at classic distances including Coaching Club American Oaks winners Music Note and Jilbab, Alabama winners Runup the Colors and Sweet Symphony, Horse of the Year Mineshaft, Preakness and Travers winner Bernardini, Belmont Stakes heroine Rags to Riches, Jockey Club Gold Cup and Hollywood Gold Cup winner Aptitude, and Personal Ensign winner Tomisue's Delight.
A.P. Indy is by Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew out of a dam by Triple Crown winner Secretariat.  He is a half-brother to Preakness winner Summer Squall.

Dam:  Bollinger won the Group 1 Coolmore Classic at 7 1/2 furlongs on turf in her native Australia.  Her half-brother, Mannington, won the Group 3 Blue Diamond Prelude at 5 1/2 furlongs. 
Friesan Fire's second dam, Bint Marscay, won the Group 1 Toomey Golden Slipper Stakes at six furlongs. 
Other notable horses from the female family include Kenny's Best Pal, the winner of the Cadbury Australian Guineas at one mile, and Filante, the winner of the Caulfield Stakes at 10 furlongs.

Outlook:  Friesan Fire's pedigree presents an interesting dilemma to handicappers.  There is obviously plenty of stamina on top with A.P. Indy, but the female side offers tons of speed influences.  Friesan Fire has yet to race past 1 1/16 miles, but the presence of A.P. Indy coupled with the foreign class of the damside bloodlines allays fears somewhat.