Dunkirk

2009 Prep Recap

Date	Trk	Race	Chart	Distance	Time	BSF	Video
1/24	GP	Maiden race	Chart	7f	1:25	77
2/19	GP	Allowance (3700n1x)	Chart	1 1/8m	1:50	98
3/28	GP	Florida Derby(G1)	Chart	1 1/8m	1:47	108

Profile by Ron Gierkink

Strengths: He overcame some adversity to win his first two starts impressively at Gulfstream Park. The track appeared to favor speed when he was a wide-closing second behind the gifted Quality Road in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Lightly raced colt does have a pair of nine-furlong routes under his girth. This $3.7 million yearling is out of a Kentucky Oaks winner, and could have the most upside in the field.

Weaknesses: Only three of the last 54 Derby winners debuted after October, and Dunkirk never made his first start until Jan. 24. The last Derby winner who didn't run at 2 was Apollo in 1882. Last year, Big Brown became the first Derby winner in 93 years to prevail in his fourth start. A moderate pace would probably hinder his closing style, and he might encounter traffic problems in this huge field.

Strategy: Edgar Prado didn't have him all that far off a lively pace in his debut, the only time he rode him, but he will likely be rallying from somewhere in the second half of the field, judging by his trip in the Florida Derby.

Value: Given his inexperience, less than 10-1 would be an underlaid price on this son of Unbridled's Song, the beaten favorite in the 1996 Derby.

Pedigree Analysis By Dan Illman

Dosage Profile:  9-13-16-0-2
Dosage Index:  3.00
Center of Distribution:  0.68
Auction:  $3,700,000 yearling

Sire - Unbridled's Song was the hype horse going into the 1996 Kentucky Derby, but a nagging foot injury coupled with the extreme outside post position in the field of 19 doomed him to a fifth-place finish. Unbridled's Song prevailed in the 1995 Breeders' Cup Juvenile at 1 1/16 miles at Belmont Park, and he won the Grade 1 Florida Derby at 1 1/8 miles the following season with a 114 Beyer Speed Figure.  Unbridled's Song also took the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at 1 1/8 miles in his final prep for the Kentucky Derby. He only raced once at four, earning a career-best 118 Beyer in winning the Olympic Handicap at seven furlongs.  
Unbridled's Song's progeny typically do their best at distances up to nine furlongs, but he has sired some top performers at the classic distances. Octave won the Coaching Club American Oaks at ten furlongs while Political Force took the Suburban at the same distance.  The ill-fated Eight Belles finished second in last year's Kentucky Derby.
Unbridled's Song's sire won the Kentucky Derby in 1990, and Unbridled's son, Grindstone, took home top honors in the 1996 renewal.

Dam - Millionaire Secret Status won both the Kentucky Oaks and Mother Goose at nine furlongs, finished second in the Alabama at 1 1/4 miles, and was third in the Coaching Club American Oaks at 1 1/2 miles.  She is a full sister to Alumni Hall, a multiple Grade 3 winner at nine furlongs.  Another half-sister, Private Gift, was a stakes-winner at 1 1/16 miles. 
Dunkirk's second dam, Private Status, won the Bourbonette Stakes at one mile.  Miss Brio, a half-sister to Private Status, defeated Bayakoa twice in California before shipping East to best Winning Colors in the Grade 1 Maskette Stakes.  Another half-sister, Maria Candela, was a multiple Group 1 winner in Chile.

Outlook:  Dunkirk's inexperience may work against him, but his sterling pedigree should allow him to navigate this distance without much fuss.