Atomic Rain

2009 Prep Recap

Date	Trk	Race	Chart	Distance	Time	BSF	Video
1/8	GP	Allowance 37000	Chart	1 1/8m	1:51	86	N/A
2/14	Tam	Sam F. Davis (G3)	Chart	1 1/16m	1:43	74
3/6	GP	Allowance 37000	Chart	1 1/8m	1:51	82	N/A
4/4	AQU	Wood Memorial (G1)	Chart	1 1/8 m	1:49	95

Profile by Byron King

Strengths: He has the pedigree to get the 1 1/4-mile Derby distance, being by Smart Strike (sire of Curlin) out of a Cox's Ridge mare. He also comes off his best race to date from a speed figure perspective, running a 95 Beyer in finishing fourth in the Wood Memorial despite traffic problems. That was easily his best effort since a distant runner-up finish behind one-time Derby favorite Old Fashioned in last year's Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct.

Weaknesses: He was a last-moment addition to the race when Square Eddie was withdrawn with sore shins. So he hasn't worked at Churchill Downs and shipped to Louisville only in mid-week. Beyond that, this is a horse with just one win from seven starts, and just one Beyer that falls in the 90s - the 95 he posted in the Wood. In a race in which the Derby winner usually runs a Beyer of 105 or greater, he needs to run much, much faster.
Strategy: He prefers to press or stalk the pace, racing no more than two to three lengths off the pace. That style should work to his benefit in the Derby, given that there is not as much speed in the field.

Value: Not having won more than one race, and being fourth in the Wood, which many observers felt did not have much depth, he will be regarded as a big longshot. He figures to be one of the largest prices on the odds board, starting at 50-1 or higher.

Pedigree Analysis By Dan Illman

Dosage Profile: 9-3-10-0-0
Dosage Index: 3.40
Center of Distribution: 0.95
Auction:  $170,000

Sire: Smart Strike has emerged as one of the most talented stallions in the world.  His son, Curlin, took the Preakness Stakes at 1 3/16 miles, the Breeders' Cup Classic at 1 1/4 miles, and the Dubai World Cup at 1 ¼ miles en route to breaking the lifetime North American earnings record.  In addition to Curlin, Smart Strike's progeny includes English Channel, the hero of the Breeders' Cup Turf at 1 1/2 miles. Communique is a multiple graded winner on grass between 1 3/16 miles and 1 1/2 miles. Portcullis won the Breeders' Stakes at 1 1/2 miles on grass.  Fleetstreet Dancer took home the Japan Cup Dirt at About 1 5/16 miles. Shadow Cast nabbed the Grade 1 Personal Ensign at 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga. Tenpins won the Washington Park Handicap at 1 3/16 miles. Shoal Water, based in Canada, was a multiple graded winner on turf between 1 3/16 miles at 1 3/8 miles.
Smart Strike's sire, Mr. Prospector, produced Fusaichi Pegasus, the Kentucky Derby winner of 2000.

Dam:  Paradise Pond won on both dirt and turf between one mile and 1 1/16 miles.  She is a half-sister to the fleet Roxelana, the winner of the Grade 3 La Troienne Stakes at seven furlongs at Churchill Downs with a 105 Beyer.  Roxelana finished third in her only start routing. Another half-sibling, Tiger, won the Grade 3 Bold Ruler Handicap at six furlongs with a 110 Beyer. 
Atomic Rain's second dam was a stakes winner at six furlongs. 

Outlook:  There is a lot of speed on the bottom half of the pedigree, and Atomic Rain's only win to date came at five furlongs.  He is unlikely to stay this distance.