Z Fortune |
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| Barbara D. Livingston |
2008 Prep Recap
| Date | Trk | Race | Chart | Distance | Time | BSF | Video |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/12 | FG | Lecomte Stakes (G3) | Chart | 1m | 1:37.79 | 95 |  |
| 2/9 | FG | Risen Star Stakes (G3) | Chart | 1 1/16m | 1:44.3 | 87 | |
| 3/15 | OP | Rebel Stakes (G2) | Chart | 1 1/16m | 1:43:4 | 82 | |
| 4/12 | OP | Arkansas Derby (G1) | Chart | 1 1/8 m | 1:49:3 | 102 | |
Analysis (by Jim Kachulis)
Strengths: He ran a personal best Beyer Speed Figure in the last placing in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby, a strong effort considering the extra-wide path and post involved. This was a strikingly similar try to the one in the Grade 3 Risen Star when he was a close second to the well-regarded Pyro. The gray is peaking at the right time, however, and has one of the most successful trainers in the game in his corner.
Weaknesses: He has yet to compete at the Grade 1 level, a definite knock, and his recent workout pattern over the Churchill Downs surface has been modest so far (although Monday’s breeze was done effortlessly). Despite showing some gate speed early in his career, he is a confirmed midpack stylist and may be a victim of an ordinary pace in this year’s Derby. Unless he draws a much more favorable post position than in recent starts, he may have too much work to do.
Strategy: Predicting the pace in this year’s Derby is no easy task, but Z Fortune cannot afford to drop too far back off the early leaders. If he does, he might find himself in a logjam of runners, waiting for the turn for home. The middle move must be timed perfectly in order for him to pull off the upset.
Value: Z Fortune will likely go to post at the highest odds of his career, although it is unsure how the betting public will react to his latest, and vastly improved, speed figure. It is a curious thing how few of the runners in this massive field have reached the triple-digit Beyer plateau. With only one non-exacta finish to his name, Z Fortune is recommended for the superfecta frame.
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Owners: Zayat Stables |
Pedigree Profile (by Lauren Stich)
Sire Line: Brazilian-bred Siphon was a Group 1 and 2 winner in his native country at 2 and 3, and won the Sport Page Handicap at 4. He blossomed into a star at 5 and 6, winning the Hollywood Gold Cup and Santa Anita Handicap and was second in the Dubai World Cup to Singspiel. He had high speed and carried that speed to classic distances as an older horse. His best runners are Siphonic, I’m the Tiger, Siphon City, Siphonizer, and Siphonica, a 3-year-old filly champion in Panama. Itajara was a Horse of the Year and became a leading stallion in Brazil.
Female Family: Fortunate Faith won the Demoiselle Stakes, and Z Fortune’s second and third dams, Keep the Faith and Gail Gluckin, were stakes-placed. Fifth dam, Remission, is a half-sister to 1944 Kentucky Oaks winner Canina.
Pedigree Pattern: With Siphon on top and Fortunate Prospect and Duck Dance as his first two damsires, Z Fortune has a SPx3/miler pedigree and is unlikely to be as effective at the Derby distance.