DRF_Moderator

Thank you for joining us. We will discussing the Kentucky Derby with Andrew Beyer tonight Tuesday April 29th at 7pm EST.

DRF_Moderator

Tonight's Kentucky Derby with Andrew Beyer will begin momentarily.

Donatus__Guest___Guest_

Q: Looking at the pace scenario, which runing style do you think will really contend in the Derby ?

Andrew_Beyer

When War Pass was scheduled to run, I thought it was certain that the Derby would have a hot pace that took a toll on all the speed horses. I was planning to throw out any front-running type. But now the scenario is ambiguous. They've been trying to harness the speed of Bob Black Jack, and we don't know that Big Brown has to gun for the lead either. (He was forced to go from that outside post position in Florida). So I'd say that the pace might be middling by Derby standards--a half in :46 and change or :47. If that's right, horses of any style would have a chance.

Guilt_Free__Guest___Guest_

Q: How concerned should I be that Colonel John has not yet achieved a Triple Digit Beyer?

Andrew_Beyer

That's a big negative, although I must say that figures on synthetic tracks have tended to be a little lower than figures on dirt tracks. (The reason is the slower pace.)But I don't see that Colonel John has run any giant races. I'm throwing him out.

Silky_Steel__Guest_

Q: Everyone knows the percentage of winning favourites at the Derby has been low over the years, and especially so in recent times. Please discuss any reasons you may have by way of explanation.

Andrew_Beyer

With 20 horses in the field, there are a lot of possible outcomes, and with all the traffic there is no certainty that even a superior horse may not be able to win. Plus, we haven't had as many dominant individuals in the last 20 years as we had in the 70s.

goldandmyrrh__Guest_

Andy...I like Pyro. What's your thoughts about him and drawing a line through the Blue Grass?

Andrew_Beyer

I wish I knew the answer to that question. He and Big Brown are the two horses in the field who have shown exceptional talent. Pyro's first win this season was freaky; his racing debut was eye-catching; he ran a figure of 105 at 2. But he looked so bad in the Blue Grass--I don't know if anyone, including Steve Asmussen, could tell you for a certainty that the race is a complete throwout.

Donatus__Guest___Guest_

Q: Which post posisions in the Derby do you consider as being automatic throwouts ?

Andrew_Beyer

None. I'd rather a horse be inside than outside--the preference of so many trainers for outside posts is insane. But enough horses have won in recent years with wide draws that I guess you can't count post position as a big factor.

Guilt_Free__Guest_

Q: How does Big Brown earn a 106 in the Florida Derby while Colonel John only gets a 98 running a identical time (1:48.16) in the Santa Anita Derby? Smooth Air ran a full second slower and gets a 98, too.

Andrew_Beyer

The figures take into account the inherent speed of the racing surface over which the horses run. The artifical surface over which Colonel John ran was faster than the dirt over which Big Brown ran.

Mike__Guest_

Q: Why are the speed figs so low for the preps run on synthetic tracks?

Andrew_Beyer

At most tracks, jockeys perceive that speed is not the advantage on synthetic tracks that it is on dirt. So they rate their horses; the pace is slow; and sometimes it's so slow that the horses cannot accelerate enough at the end to run as fast as they might be capable of doing with a normal pace. This is a dilemmas for us fig-makers. When the pace is ridiculously slow (as, say, in the '07 Blue Grass). and it produces a ridiculously slow final time, we might upgrade the number a bit to better reflect the true ability of the horses.

ZippyChippy__Guest_

Q: Hello Mr.Beyer, Big Brown is getting all the hype. I was however impressed with the runner up Smooth Air. What are your thoughts on Smooth Air?

Andrew_Beyer

I could have made a marginal case for him, but after he was sidelined for three days because of physical problems, I can't use him. Wayne Lukas always used to say: "You can't make compromises and win the Derby."

betteratdogs__Guest_

Q: Last year you dismissed Curlin's chances due to a lack of experience. Are you doing the same this year with Big Brown?

Andrew_Beyer

Yes I am. No horse has won the Derby with fewer than five career starts since Exterminator, and if I'm going against that precedent I want a lot more than 2 to 1. Although some people might say that Curlin shows how times have changed, that horses race more sparingly than they used to, I think he validates the importance of experience in the Derby. He was the best horse of his generation, but he still couldn't win the Derby with only 3 career starts.

Fast_Closing_Freddie__Guest_

Q: Hi Andy: How do I gage the time of the Wood Memorial.. blistering open quarter and final time dreadfully slow. Should Court Vision have closed better... dont understand which time is more meaningful ?

Andrew_Beyer

The fast early pace created a perfect set-up for a closer, and yet Court Vision couldn't take advantage of it. I didn't like his race. My friend and colleague Randy Moss liked Tale of Ekati's Wood effort. Although I'd be inclined to say that Ekati got a perfect trip sitting behind the speed, Randy's pace figures indicate that Ekati was running very hard to chase that pace, and the effort was better than the final figure might suggest.

ErieGuy__Guest_

Q: Is this the year to buy the tri and hope for chaos?

Andrew_Beyer

By "buy" do you mean take a 20-horse box? I think that might be excessive. But I think that the two favorites, Big Brown and Colonel John, are sufficiently vulnerable that taking a sizeable spread in the exotics is a reasonable strategy.

classhandicapper__Guest_

Q: How confident are you in the Beyer figure that you assigned to Pyro in the Breeders Cup Juvenile

Andrew_Beyer

I'm confident. The top two horses ran monster races. There was a straightforward comparison with the the Juvenile Fillies that confirmed the figure. Moreover, the giant gaps in the field were the type you see in a big-figure race. (It was 12 lengths back to the third horse.) I don't know if Pyro will ever repeat the number, but it was legitimate.

Jim1887__Guest_

Q: Can you provide us with an analysis (i.e. their legitimacy) of the figures earned in the Blue Grass and Illinois Derbies?

Andrew_Beyer

The Blue Grass was a slow race won by a mediocre horse. The dirt horses didn't fire on Poly. I have no trouble with that number. The Illinois Derby caused us trouble. The race came up unrealistically fast--it would have been over 110 if we'd taken the number at face value. But they run very few 1 1/8 mile races at Hawthorne, and when they do they are sometimes freaky. Before the Illinois Derby we have some suspicion that they juice up the track. When War Emblem won the Ill. Derby in a giant figure, our Illinois figure man, Dennis Harp, decided to accept it. War Emblem had the top figure going into the Kentucky Derby and verified it. But we couldn't see Recapturetheglory and the rest of them all running in the stratosphere, so we lowered the number. I think we are right. If Recapturetheglory wins Saturday, I'll be ill.

RFB0318__Guest_

Q: Denis of Cork has all the makings of a "buzz" horse---yet he's slow on the Beyer #'s. The TG Sheet guys who manage him might differ--your opinion?

Andrew_Beyer

The Sheet guys who manage him haven't looked so brilliant in their management thus far.

Essex_Vermont__Guest_

Q: Who do you see with a better chance, Tale of Ek or Monba?

Andrew_Beyer

Tale of Ekati because he's a dirt horse.

SteelCard__Guest_

Q: Andy, how reliable are the Santa Anita figures as of late? Can we trust them w/ how much the track has changed over the meet?

Andrew_Beyer

The fact that the track changed a lot doesn't faze the figures; our track variants take that into account. (Santa Anita did get a little tricky because, I believed, they sometimes changed the track significantly in the middle of the card.) My concern about the S. A. figures is only that form on a synthetic track may have little or no relationship to a horse's form on dirt.

Charlie_Horse__Guest_

Q: Studying the charts from the first 3 days of racing, speed is not holding up that well. I know it still is 4 days away but that seems to be the standard on Derby Day also, I am throwing all the speed horses out for that reason for the win. Would you agree or disagree?olsa

Andrew_Beyer

Don't be fooled by anything that happens in the first couple days of the Churchill meet. They work on that track, and work on it, and work on it so that by Derby day it may bear no resemblance to what it was on opening day. I don't think I've ever seen a Derby where a track bias played a significant role in the outcome.

Boke__Guest_

Q: How do you feel about Cool Coal Man? I was impressed by his Fountain of Youth and the fig stacks up with most of these.

Andrew_Beyer

Even if you throw out his Blue Grass, I can't love his Fountain of Youth. He had a very good trip breaking from post position 1--which is a great advantage in the 1 1/8 mile races at Gulfstream.

aparagon4u__Guest_

Q: What happened to all the fast horses? Seems like the last few years very few horses have run 100+ BSF's prior to the Derby but in previous years half the field or more had done so. Are the horses slower now or is it that trainers are not asking them for their best prior to the Derby?

Andrew_Beyer

I think this is just a sub-par crop. At least I hope it's an aberration. But if it's part of a trend, one explanation may certainly be that the sheikhs have bought so many of the best U.S. racehorses and breeding stock that they have significantly thinned out the quality of the 3-year-old class.

beyou02215__Guest_

Q: Do Pyro's two triple digit Beyer number from last year mean anything this year? Or is he a throw-out as well?

Andrew_Beyer

They mean a lot to me. They showed that Pyro has a lot of ability. A lot of people knocked his first two wins this season because the figures were poor, but he nevertheless ran a phenomenal race in the Risen Star, rallying to win after an extremely slow pace. My feeling was that when Pyro got a solid pace in front of him in the Kentucky Derby, he'd make a giant rally and run a big number again. I took him at 20 to 1 in a future bet, so I'm hoping this is what's going to happen. But my confidence was somewhat shaken by his poor showing in the Blue Grass. I'd like to be confident that I can throw the race out because it was Polytrack--but I don't know.

goldandmyrrh__Guest_

Q: What's your thoughts on the ADW fiasco. Isn't the sport shooting itself in the foot on it's biggest day. Why can't both sides take a truce for one day?

Andrew_Beyer

As the racing business deteriorates, everybody keeps trying to grab a large piece of the pie for himself, and to hell with everybody else. Nobody even thinks any more about trying to do what's best for the customers or for the sport's overall interests.

Andrew_Beyer

Speaking of short-sighted greed, how about those great executives at Churchill Downs Inc. raising the takeout on pick 3s and 4s at Calder to 27 per cent? Don't get me started on this subject.....

3Dee__Guest_

Q: How do you rate the Arkansas Derby as a prep this year?

Andrew_Beyer

The figure was of 102 was good by this year's standards, and both horses earned their numbers honestly. Gayego fought for the lead all the way around the track, and Z Fortune was parked wide on both turns. This was a career-best effort for both horses, and I am sure that Sheet adherents will say this was a bad thing, but the Derby is frequently won at a price by horses who start getting good in their final prep race--among them, Funny Cide, War Emblem and Charismatic. They were all big prices, and either Gayego or Z Fortune could be the under-the-radar horse who wins the Derby or at least gets into the tri.

doublediscount7_2__Guest_

Q: What do you think about the new Moss Pace figures, are you utilyzing them in your handicapping?

Andrew_Beyer

I think they're probably the best pace figures ever made. I was working with Randy for a time on this project, but he was miles ahead of me in his thinking on the subject: He went to Google Earth to measure the contours of all the major U. S. tracks in order to calculate the impact of the tracks' layouts on fractional times.

million_monkeybust__Guest_

Q: What are your wagering strategies for the derby? ie. Flat Bet,EX, Tris, Supers, Pk 3s etc.

Andrew_Beyer

I don't have enough confidence in any one horse to bet to win. But it's the Derby, so I've got to make a play. So I'll throw out Big Brown and Colonel John, dive into the tri and super pools, spread quite a bit and try to come up with a monster payoff.

Donatus__Guest_

Q: How does this Derby stack up differently to the previous ones in your mind?

Andrew_Beyer

I find it a little disappointing. The field is not a good one (except, maybe, for Big Brown or Pyro). And the synthetic-track factor has partly spoiled handicapping it. Judging how horses will make the transition from Poly to dirt is guesswork, not handicapping. But maybe we'll be surprised and this Derby will produce some great drama or an unexpectedly brilliant performance. I hope so.

Andrew_Beyer

Thanks, everybody, for joining us tonight.

DRF_Moderator

Thanks for coming to tonight's Kentucky Derby chat. A transcript of tonight's conversation with Andrew Beyer will be posted shortly. Please join us again on Wednesday, April 30, from 7:00-8:00 EST for a chat with Dan Illman.