April 21, 2006 - Keyed Entry

Welcome to Under the Radar! Each week, I'll select an up-and-coming Derby prospect for my stable of "Radar Runners."

I got lots of mail!

Jerry writes:

Hey Dan,

I've enjoyed reading the under the radar series once again this year. It's always more fun to find a horse that's been overlooked. That said, what do you think of Private Vow. I had him in some exotics for the breeders cup and really liked his chances that day. Thought he was very rank in the Rebel but settled nicely in the Arkansas Derby. What are your thoughts on him continuing to improve making his 3rd start off a layoff? The price will certainly be nice. I went to Hawthorne to see SNS, thought that was a very impressive race. Great UTR pick.

Thanks,

Jerry

Tyrone adds:

Dan, Private Vow seems to be peaking. His trainer prudently places his horses.

What are your UTR views?

Tyrone

Private Vow should be set for a good run in the Derby going third off the layoff, but with all the speed entered in the race, I'm not sure that his running style is conducive to success this year. Private Vow has run the majority of his races while on or near the lead, and he does have the tendency to get rank in the first quarter of a mile. If he runs off in the Derby, he could get caught up in the expected hot pace battle. He's admirably tried to rate in his last two starts, but his closing punch just hasn't been there, and his Beyers pale in comparison to those of the other top contenders. He still must prove to me that he isn't just an "early 2yo" that has failed to progress at three. I'm putting my stamp of disapproval on him which most assuredly will get him to the winner's circle on the first Saturday in May.

Speaking of horses that need to improve, let's get to this week's Under the Radar Selection: Keyed Entry

Keyed Entry's past performances are somewhat similar to those of Private Vow. Both are with-the-pace horses coming off losses in major prep races, and both have serious distance questions to answer. Both are trained by high-profile, high-percentage horsemen. The major difference between the two are the Beyer Speed Figures. Keyed Entry is a proven "triple-fig" horse while Private Vow has yet to reach that plateau. Can Keyed Entry run back to a 110 Beyer in the Derby? Probably not, but at 40-1 or more, I'm willing to gamble to find out.

Keyed Entry did what many Todd Pletcher runners do - he broke his maiden first-out at two. He didn't start again as a juvenile, but picked up right where he left off at Gulfstream this winter, winning a N1X allowance with ease, and then defeating the highly-regarded First Samurai in the Grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes.

Keyed Entry tried to rate in the Grade 3 Gotham, and he was slowly getting to longshot winner Like Now in the final stages of the race. He finished ahead of Sweetnorthernsaint that day, and that foe returned to demolish the opposition in the Illinois Derby.

Keyed Entry went off at 4-5 in the Wood Memorial, and set quick fractions for a mile before being reeled in by Bob and John and Jazil. Jockey Edgar Prado said after the race that nine furlongs was a bit beyond his scope, and that doesn't bode well for Derby success, but perhaps if he reverts to stalking tactics in the Derby, then he'll stay the trip.

Keyed Entry's dam was best on grass, earning Grade 3-placed honors on the turf. She is a half-sister to the minor stakes-winning router Ava Singstheblues (by Dixieland Band). Second dam Ava Romance (by Avatar) was a multiple stakes-winner of over 280K. Both the third and fourth dams were stakes-winners as well. Broodmare sire Cryptoclearance was a stone-cold router, and adds some stamina to the family.

The pace may be too quick for him, and the distance too long, but Keyed Entry will be going from 4-5 in the Wood Memorial to a big price in the Derby. He's worth a few bucks to win, and has certainly fallen under the radar.

Questions? Comments? Email Dan Illman