:: Column: Storybook ending, but which one?
::Derby Watch field with odds & commentary
:: Hot & Not for Apr. 28: Who's Hot, Who's Not
Derby Watch Archives
:: Derby Watch 04/28/2006 :: Derby Watch 04/21/2006 :: Derby Watch 04/14/2006 :: Derby Watch 04/07/2006 :: Derby Watch 03/31/2006 :: Derby Watch 03/24/2006 :: Derby Watch 03/17/2006 :: Derby Watch 03/10/2006 :: Derby Watch 03/03/2006 :: Derby Watch 02/22/2006
Since your web browser does not support JavaScript, here is a non-JavaScript version of the image slideshow: 1) JAZIL Jay Privman: Might get the same hot pace in this race as in the Wood, but don't think he's fast enough overall. Mike Watchmaker: He finished so fast in the Wood because they were walking home. That said, he might be improved. 2) STEPPENWOLFER Jay Privman: Has the closing style to be used in bottom parts of trifectas and superfectas, but think he's a cut below. Mike Watchmaker: I agree. He could clunk up for a minor share, but the race must fall apart late for him to actually win. 3) KEYED ENTRY Jay Privman: He is a super one-turn miler. Unfortunately for him, however, the Derby is a two-turn, 1 1/4-mile race. Mike Watchmaker: Part of the pace scenario, although I wouldn't be surprised if he rated a bit like he did in the Gotham. 4) SINISTER MINISTER Jay Privman: Had things made to order in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. Respect his speed, but think he will regress. Mike Watchmaker: Had things made to order in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. Respect his speed, but think he will regress. 5) POINT DETERMINED Jay Privman: Inherited second in the Santa Anita Derby by default because A. P. Warrior went after Brother Derek. Mike Watchmaker: That's true, but he ran every bit as well as A. P. Warrior in the San Felipe. Will use him in the exotics. 6) SHOWING UP Jay Privman: Did not race at 2 (no winners since Apollo in 1882), and has just three career starts (Regret, 1915). Mike Watchmaker: Has the makings of a very nice colt, but this is a monumental task for one with so little experience. 7) BOB AND JOHN Jay Privman: Came home slowly in the Wood, but was ridden aggressively early. Should settle, and then close. Mike Watchmaker: Not so sure he can drop back, make one effective run. He stalked from close range in his best races. 8) BARBARO Jay Privman: Expect him to move forward off his last race for a world-class horseman. Has trained sensationally. Mike Watchmaker: Putting the five-week gap question aside, how really strong were the horses he beat in Florida? 9) SHARP HUMOR Jay Privman: Has been trained as though he is absolutely going to be rolling early; doubt he can shake free. Mike Watchmaker: If he doesn't make the lead, he'll make Sinister Minister's life miserable early. Game colt, tough spot. 10) A.P. WARRIOR Jay Privman: May be the best value among my top contenders. Should improve off his last for his clever trainer. Mike Watchmaker: Has a much more favorable pace set up in this than he did in the Santa Anita Derby. Definite threat. 11) SWEETNORTHERNSAINT Jay Privman: Has run some freakishly fast races, and could fall into an ideal stalking position. Dangerous. Mike Watchmaker: Learned to rate in his last two starts, and he is not just fast, he is fast on a consistent basis. My pick. 12) PRIVATE VOW Jay Privman: Made a nice forward move in the Arkansas Derby, but not convinced he has improved from 2 to 3. Mike Watchmaker: Still question how good he really was at 2. The stakes he won did not prove to be strong races. 13) BLUEGRASS CAT Jay Privman: His form just doesn't seems to have improved from last year to this year. Would be a big surprise. Mike Watchmaker: Indeed, I was a fan of his at the start of the year, but he has done little to justify loyal support. 14) DEPUTY GLITTERS Jay Privman: Poor effort in the Wood, and suspect form of his Tampa races puts him in bottom tier on my list. Mike Watchmaker: His battles with Bluegrass Cat in Tampa meant more before the latter's stock fell. Looks overmatched. 15) SEASIDE RETREAT Jay Privman: His only decent race was against a weak field on Polytrack in the Lane's End. A toss-out for me. Mike Watchmaker: He should be around 500-1, but betting is weird in the Derby, and thousands will be burned on him. 16) CAUSE TO BELIEVE Jay Privman: This is my 25th straight Derby. Thought his last work was one of the worst Derby works I have seen. Mike Watchmaker: I don't like him either. Meanwhile, is Jay lobbying to have this race renamed the 'Kentucky Privman?' 17) LAWYER RON Jay Privman: Certainly on a roll with six straight wins, but believe that the Arkansas-based runners were weak. Mike Watchmaker: The horses behind Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones in Arkansas weren't intimidating at the time, either. 18) BROTHER DEREK Jay Privman: If he can rate, he should get an ideal trip. He had the best prep races, but he is an underlay. Mike Watchmaker: I get the sense that his pari-mutuel support is wavering. But he merits respect, and I feel he will rate. 19) STORM TREASURE Jay Privman: Definitely one to use in the bottom part of the gimmicks. Has trained well, and is 1 for 1 at Churchill. Mike Watchmaker: Would need a lot of opponents to get the staggers to get a share. I suppose that is not impossible. 20) FLASHY BULL Jay Privman: Had one last chance to impress me in the Florida Derby. Don't think he has progressed this spring. Mike Watchmaker: Officially got into the race on Monday. By Saturday night, the question might be if it was all worth it.
1) JAZIL
Jay Privman: Might get the same hot pace in this race as in the Wood, but don't think he's fast enough overall.
Mike Watchmaker: He finished so fast in the Wood because they were walking home. That said, he might be improved.
2) STEPPENWOLFER Jay Privman: Has the closing style to be used in bottom parts of trifectas and superfectas, but think he's a cut below. Mike Watchmaker: I agree. He could clunk up for a minor share, but the race must fall apart late for him to actually win.
3) KEYED ENTRY
Jay Privman: He is a super one-turn miler. Unfortunately for him, however, the Derby is a two-turn, 1 1/4-mile race.
Mike Watchmaker: Part of the pace scenario, although I wouldn't be surprised if he rated a bit like he did in the Gotham.
4) SINISTER MINISTER
Jay Privman: Had things made to order in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. Respect his speed, but think he will regress.
Mike Watchmaker: Had things made to order in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. Respect his speed, but think he will regress.
5) POINT DETERMINED
Jay Privman: Inherited second in the Santa Anita Derby by default because A. P. Warrior went after Brother Derek.
Mike Watchmaker: That's true, but he ran every bit as well as A. P. Warrior in the San Felipe. Will use him in the exotics.
6) SHOWING UP
Jay Privman: Did not race at 2 (no winners since Apollo in 1882), and has just three career starts (Regret, 1915).
Mike Watchmaker: Has the makings of a very nice colt, but this is a monumental task for one with so little experience.
7) BOB AND JOHN
Jay Privman: Came home slowly in the Wood, but was ridden aggressively early. Should settle, and then close.
Mike Watchmaker: Not so sure he can drop back, make one effective run. He stalked from close range in his best races.
8) BARBARO
Jay Privman: Expect him to move forward off his last race for a world-class horseman. Has trained sensationally.
Mike Watchmaker: Putting the five-week gap question aside, how really strong were the horses he beat in Florida?
9) SHARP HUMOR
Jay Privman: Has been trained as though he is absolutely going to be rolling early; doubt he can shake free.
Mike Watchmaker: If he doesn't make the lead, he'll make Sinister Minister's life miserable early. Game colt, tough spot.
10) A.P. WARRIOR
Jay Privman: May be the best value among my top contenders. Should improve off his last for his clever trainer.
Mike Watchmaker: Has a much more favorable pace set up in this than he did in the Santa Anita Derby. Definite threat.
11) SWEETNORTHERNSAINT
Jay Privman: Has run some freakishly fast races, and could fall into an ideal stalking position. Dangerous.
Mike Watchmaker: Learned to rate in his last two starts, and he is not just fast, he is fast on a consistent basis. My pick.
12) PRIVATE VOW Jay Privman: Made a nice forward move in the Arkansas Derby, but not convinced he has improved from 2 to 3. Mike Watchmaker: Still question how good he really was at 2. The stakes he won did not prove to be strong races.
13) BLUEGRASS CAT
Jay Privman: His form just doesn't seems to have improved from last year to this year. Would be a big surprise.
Mike Watchmaker: Indeed, I was a fan of his at the start of the year, but he has done little to justify loyal support.
14) DEPUTY GLITTERS
Jay Privman: Poor effort in the Wood, and suspect form of his Tampa races puts him in bottom tier on my list.
Mike Watchmaker: His battles with Bluegrass Cat in Tampa meant more before the latter's stock fell. Looks overmatched.
15) SEASIDE RETREAT
Jay Privman: His only decent race was against a weak field on Polytrack in the Lane's End. A toss-out for me.
Mike Watchmaker: He should be around 500-1, but betting is weird in the Derby, and thousands will be burned on him.
16) CAUSE TO BELIEVE
Jay Privman: This is my 25th straight Derby. Thought his last work was one of the worst Derby works I have seen.
Mike Watchmaker: I don't like him either. Meanwhile, is Jay lobbying to have this race renamed the 'Kentucky Privman?'
17) LAWYER RON
Jay Privman: Certainly on a roll with six straight wins, but believe that the Arkansas-based runners were weak.
Mike Watchmaker: The horses behind Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones in Arkansas weren't intimidating at the time, either.
18) BROTHER DEREK
Jay Privman: If he can rate, he should get an ideal trip. He had the best prep races, but he is an underlay.
Mike Watchmaker: I get the sense that his pari-mutuel support is wavering. But he merits respect, and I feel he will rate.
19) STORM TREASURE
Jay Privman: Definitely one to use in the bottom part of the gimmicks. Has trained well, and is 1 for 1 at Churchill.
Mike Watchmaker: Would need a lot of opponents to get the staggers to get a share. I suppose that is not impossible.
20) FLASHY BULL
Jay Privman: Had one last chance to impress me in the Florida Derby. Don't think he has progressed this spring.
Mike Watchmaker: Officially got into the race on Monday. By Saturday night, the question might be if it was all worth it.
