Wednesday - May 3, 2006
| Dan Illman: | Welcome everyone. Thanks for coming tonight. I'm looking forward to the discussion |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming to tonight's Kentucky Derby chat, we'll start with a question from Kitan... |
| Kitan: | Q: Hi Dan. Sweetnorthernsaint is by Sweetsouthernsaint, who has dropped six other $100k+ earners. All won stakes races routing. What is your opinion of Sweetnorthernsaint? |
| Dan Illman: | Hello Kitan. I really like SNS. From a speed, pace, and class perspective, he and Brother Derek are the best horses in the race... |
| Dan Illman: | He's going to sit a nice stalking trip, and should be revving up on the turn. I'm definitely going to use him. |
| prizboy: | Q: Dan, Great job with the blog. What do you think about the post positions and how then will affect the odds. Doesn't Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron drawing outside posting inflate their prices, thereby diminishing the prices on the midlevel horses? |
| Dan Illman: | Thanks, prizboy. I don't think the post positions will make much of a difference concerning the wagering... |
| Dan Illman: | Keyed Entry and Sinister Minister draw inside and figure to go for the lead. Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron... |
| Dan Illman: | have enough tactical speed to sit just off the pace while in the clear. I don't think anyone is really upset with their draw. |
| Chi-TownSAINT: | Q: Dan: Do you think the jocks will be foolish enough again to let what happened last year happen this year? I mean, I know its going to be brutal on the front end, but, how many do you think will be up there? |
| Dan Illman: | I think the jocks have to play to the strength of their horses, and there are a lot of strong pace horses... |
| Dan Illman: | in the race. P. Val likes to go so he'll probably send Keyed Entry to the top, and hope to outfoot Sinister Minister. Those two will... |
| Dan Illman: | be up there early along with Brother Derek, I believe. I'm expecting Barbaro to be pretty close as well. I'm thinking they'll go between 45.1 and 46.1 up front. |
| LaFong: | Q: Off his Wood finish, how much does Jazil move up on wet track? |
| Dan Illman: | Jazil moves up drastically on a wet track, but I'm still not convinced that his big late rally was as good as it looked... |
| Dan Illman: | If you watch the tape of the Wood, you'll notice Bob and John change back to his wrong lead about 100 yards from the wire... |
| Dan Illman: | and he then decelerates, making Jazil's kick look stronger than it really was. |
| alexdesmokeville: | Q: I say Barbaro is a fraud. What say you? |
| Dan Illman: | It's hard to knock an undefeated horse, especially one that wins on turf and dirt, on wet and on dry. He has the tactical speed to sit a good trip off the leaders, and he's won fresh... |
| Dan Illman: | He's certainly not a fraud. I'd use him in supers. |
| NC_Tony: | Q: Dan why is Sinister Minister, the fastest horse in the race being discounted by so many national hadicappers- Why does everyone think horses have to bounce? |
| Dan Illman: | Because he had never run the kind of race he ran in the Blue Grass before that day. Did he simply find himself at Keeneland, and can move forward, or was he carried by a speed-favoring track... |
| Dan Illman: | The pace scenario in the Derby likely won't do him any favors, and I didn't like that he failed to switch leads in the Blue Grass. Still, it's hard to discount that Beyer. I'd use him. |
| cigar1: | Q: Dan, Private Vow was the best 2 yr old of this bunch. He's a dual qualifier on breeding, 3rd off angle, bullets, and has run well over the CD track. 50-1? |
| Dan Illman: | An overlay based on your arguments, for sure. Still, he's an aggressive type that really hasn't proven that he can successfully rate... |
| Dan Illman: | and he hasn't moved forward on the Beyer scale from 2 to 3. He'll need to run his career-best race to win. |
| pootnanny: | Q: I have to ask you about my boy Point Determined. What do you think about him |
| Dan Illman: | I've been a fan of his since before he broke his maiden. He's such a big horse, and it takes him a while to get in gear so I was surprised to see his connections chosse... |
| Dan Illman: | an inside post. He hasn't really liked being down inside of other horses in his career so it will be interesting to see if Bejarano can get him outside. He'll get the right setup, but I'm going... |
| Dan Illman: | to be using him on the bottom of my exotics. |
| King_Glorious: | Q: Give me a live longshot (30-1 ML or higher) and why? |
| Dan Illman: | You'll probably laugh, but both Pletcher runners (Keyed Entry and Bluegrass Cat) will be overlays. If P. Val gets the jump on Sinister MInister from the gate... |
| Dan Illman: | Espinoza may rate SM, and let Keyed Entry get the front. He's got the back numbers to win. Bluegrass Cat has tactical speed, and if you toss his last race, his form is okay. |
| rmullin: | Q: Hello Dan, Of Jazil, Steppenwolfer and Cause to Believe who would you rate as the best chacne to pick up some pieces. I was surprised by 50-1 on C to B assuming that he may not have liked the Hawthorne track. |
| Dan Illman: | I prefer Steppenwolfer. He has shown agility in his career, and will be running at the end. His Beyers are light, but I think he'll like the long stretch. I've never really liked Cause to Believe, and Jazil needs to run faster. |
| Bensell: | Q: Storm Treasure had the second best race in the Bluegrass - can you see him improving enough to get a piece of the board? |
| Dan Illman: | No. He basically sucked up for second along the inside in the Blue Grass, and didn't change leads to boot. He'll need a great deal of racing luck to weave his way around this bulky field. |
| Jim1887: | Q: Dan, could you toss five horses out of the Derby for me? |
| Dan Illman: | Let's toss Seaside Retreat, Flashy Bull, Deputy Glitters, Jazil, and Storm Treasure |
| Dr_Lucky: | Q: Dan, any thoughts on Showing Up? Seems to be a good setup for this type of race. |
| Dan Illman: | If he wasn't so lightly-raced, I'd be all over him. He has had some minor physical problems this year, and you could argue that he's being... |
| Dan Illman: | rushed a bit to get into this race. I like his upside, and his tactical speed, and I don't have a problem throwing him into the supers. |
| HOLLYBERRY: | Q: Up until about a week ago, I was dead certain Lawyer Ron was going to win the derby but after listening to everyone this week I begin to doubt myself once again. What do you think of Lawyer Ron and his chances? Do you think his Beyers are no good? |
| Dan Illman: | He's run a triple-digit Beyer in the past so you know he can run fast. His recent Beyers aren't as impressive as some of the others... |
| Dan Illman: | but he's been visually impressive, and has good tactical speed. I'm going to try and let him beat me, but I certainly respect his class and heart. You should probably stick with your original sentiment... |
| Dan Illman: | as when people change their minds, they often end up kicking themselves. |
| JANDEK: | Q: Dan, your blog forum has been great!! thanks for running a daily open dialog - lots of good info and interesting ideas in there.. why aren't people talking about Cause To Believe more?? He beat AP WArrior & Point Determined & Sinister Minister. |
| Dan Illman: | I just didn't like his Cal Derby. He was helped by a fast pace, didn't change leads, and Sinister Minister tried to jump the rail in the stretch. Sweetnorthernsaint... |
| Dan Illman: | then put him in his place in the Illinois Derby. Cause to Believe has to do better. |
| NOTOOL: | Q: Good Evening, Dan. Do you think Sweetnorthernsaint was a better horse in the IL Derby than the Gotham or did he just run away from a weaker field? |
| Dan Illman: | Excellent question, and perhaps that's the key to solving this Derby puzzle. As a SNS fan, I'm hoping that he's a better horse, but it's probably a combination of the two factors... |
| Dan Illman: | He didn't beat much at Hawthorne, but he was wide off a slow pace in the Gotham. He has to still prove that he can pass horses, but he hasn't proven to me that he can't just yet. |
| Congaree: | Q: You didn't mention Sharp Humor in your pace prediction. Dale Romans has said he will be in the lead. Do you think he is blowing smoke and that Sharp Humor will rate? |
| Dan Illman: | If he goes, he's going to likely have to hook them up with both Keyed Entry and Sinister Minister while outside of those horses. I'd love to see Guidry rate him just off those two, and try to get the jump on the others turning... |
| Dan Illman: | for home. He's an interesting sleeper. |
| DerbyD7: | Q: AP Warrior is sittin on his 3rd race off a layoff, with two consecutive 100 Beyer figures. His form reminds me of Monarcho in '01 and he will undoubtedly have a scorching pace to run at. Do you like him? |
| Dan Illman: | He's matured both physically and emotionally, and I've liked how he has learned to relax. He galloped out beautifully after the wire 2 back... |
| Dan Illman: | and then was up against it facing Brother Derek in that short field last time. He made a good run on the turn that day, and figures to be fit for the Derby. No real distance concerns with his pedigree either. He's certainly usable, but let the odds be your guide (i.e. bet him if he's an overlay, take a pass if he gets hit hard). |
| Hollywood: | Q: So Dan, please give us your top 5. |
| Dan Illman: | Sweetnorthernsaint...Barbaro...Sharp Humor...Brother Derek...Sinister Minister |
| MICHAELMANNC: | Q: Closers Dan.......what about closers?????????????? |
| Dan Illman: | If you notice, I didn't mention one closer. That's more because I'm a stubborn speed freak than not liking the late-kickers in this Derby. A P Warrior, Point Determined, Bluegrass Cat, and Bob and John (surprised nobody has mentioned him) are very good closers. |
| jr: | Q: Applying your woks theroy from yesterdays blog I'm comming up with Bob & John. Do you have any leanings after looking @ the works? |
| Dan Illman: | According to Mike Welsch, Sweetnorthernsaint didn't look as good on the track today as he did in the last few mornings...Still, he has worked well over this track... |
| Dan Illman: | Bob and John looked awesome in his workout the other day, and seems to be moving forward. I'm going to try and beat him, but he seems to be feeling good. |
| Jim1887: | Q: Why will this year's derby be so different from last year's? Your Top 5 would have finished anywhere from 12-20 in last year's derby pace... |
| Dan Illman: | Because every race is different. I don't think Sweetnorthernsaint is a one-dimensional speedball. If he's fifth of sixth early and can finish, he's right there... |
| Dan Illman: | Barbaro isn't a speed horse. He's tactical, and I can see him falling into a nice Funny Cide-esque spot... |
| Dan Illman: | As I mentioned earlier, I'm guessing Sharp Humor will rate. Brother Derek has the class and the numbers. Sinister Minister has the number. Covered all the bases, right? |
| joemas: | Q: andy beyer says toss Brother Derek,do you concur? |
| Dan Illman: | I won't bet him to win if he's a short price, but it's hard to knock what the horse has done. Sure, he's headstrong, and is going to have to rate, but he is quality speed. Again, not worth a win bet at short odds, but not a toss either. |
| thieljr: | Q: Brother Derek keeps beating fields of about five horses....Barbaro has topped fields of over ten everytime...Does that matter at all? |
| Dan Illman: | I'm sure it really matters a great deal, but it can't hurt. Both horses have good speed, and can use that valuable asset to their advantage in extricating themselves... |
| Dan Illman: | from early traffic. |
| Dan Illman: | I'm sorry...I meant to type "I'm sure it doesn't really matter a great deal, but..." |
| _NOFOOL_: | Q: How do you consider Bluegrasscat a closer looking at his PPs he is always close to the pace? |
| Dan Illman: | Because he's going to have to assume the role of closer in the Derby if he is to have any shot. He chased slow fractions... |
| Dan Illman: | at Tampa Bay in his best races this year, and they'll be going much quicker up front on Saturday...I'm betting he's 10 lengths back... |
| Dan Illman: | down the backstretch. |
| CMYMCADOO: | Q: Any opinion on the Oaks-Derby Double? |
| Dan Illman: | I'll try to beat Balance, the favorite in the Oaks. In my opinion, the Oaks is wide-open. I'd use Bushfire prominently in the Oaks with perhaps... |
| Dan Illman: | Ermine, Diplomat Lady, Wonder Lady Anne L, and longshots Last Romance and Lemons Forever. |
| Dan Illman: | In the Derby, I'm using SNS, Barbaro, Brother Derek and Sinister Minister in the double. |
| smithracing: | Q: Dan, One thing I have learned as a racehorse owner jockey changes can be huge on racehorses that is why I am throwing out Sinister Minister. Do you agree? |
| Dan Illman: | It's interesting that Gomez ends up on Bob and John, but that seemed to be the plan all along... I'm not taking much stock in jockey musical chairs for the Derby. |
| spanishmoon: | Q: Mr. Illman: are there any horses whose chances are severely compromised by their post positions? |
| Dan Illman: | I think the draw doesn't hurt anyone. Deep closers are down on the rail where they can save ground. The speed horses don't seem to be adversely affected. Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron draw outside, but are fast enough to get good spots... |
| Dan Illman: | All in all... the draw looks fair. |
| duke: | Q: How much weight do you put on the fact that Lawyer Ron has already had 14 races to date? Is he over the top? |
| Dan Illman: | I wouldn't say he's over the top. I just don't project him to improve as much as a horse that only has a few starts. He's so professional and consistent that I can't say he'll 'bounce' or anything like that. |
| ninetoone: | Q: Can we safely toss Bluegrass Cat's last race? |
| Dan Illman: | I don't think it's safe to toss it, but he's certainly run better races than that. He was close to those fast fractions, and wilted. He'll be farther back on Saturday. He's not a top pick, but for a horse that's never been more than 4-1 with Pletcher, and will be 30 or 50-1, he's worth a couple of bucks. |
| varsity: | Q: Dan were near the end now. Whats your win pick? |
| Dan Illman: | My win pick is Sweetnorthernsaint. His numbers are hard to ignore, and he has been visually impressive as well in his preps. A wet track would help him as well. |
| Sea_Hero: | Q: Brass Hat was belatedly disqualified from his 2nd place Dubai World Cup finish today...In your opinion, how confident can we be that all of the horses in the Derby field will be clean? |
| Dan Illman: | First of all, you'd have to define 'clean.' How confident am I that none of the Derby horses will test positive? Let's just say I'm confident that there won't be any post-race dq's. |
| bilbo: | Q: How will the inside post positions of Jazil and Steppenwolfer affect their chances given their closing styles? |
| Dan Illman: | It doesn't. They're closers, and were going to have to weave their way through and around the field anyway. At least this way, they'll save some ground going into the first turn. |
| WinooskiTip: | Q: WHo do you like on wet surfacce? |
| Dan Illman: | I like Sweetnorthernsaint and Barbaro on wet tracks as well as dirt. My top five again are SNS, Barbaro, Sharp Humor, Brother Derek, and Sinister Minister. |
| Dan Illman: | Thanks for coming out tonight. Good luck everybody, and I'll try to answer any more questions you have on the blog. Take it easy. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Kentucky Derby! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Kentucky Derby Day past performances will be available tonight! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Be sure to join us tomorrow night from 7:00-8:00 pm Eastern for a chat with Steven Crist. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | If you arrived late, we will be posting a transcript of tonight's chat within the hour in the DRF.com Kentucky Derby section. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | In the words of Stanley Bergstein, good night all. |
