Thursday - May 4, 2006
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming to tonight's Kentucky Derby chat, we'll start with a question from Barbaro... |
| Barbaro: | Q: Steve.. $750,000 PK 6 gurantee Saturday. Will you be jumping in? If so, what 5 would you like to be alive to in the Derby. |
| Steven_Crist: | I'm inclined to focus on the $1 million guaranteed pick four unless there's a carryover.... |
| Steven_Crist: | And I'd like to get alive to about 10 of them in the Derby, given that I think it's really wide open. |
| LaFong: | Q: Ark. Derby slowish, but Lawyer Ron had very adventurous trip in large field. His win was part pluck, part luck. I like his pluck- can he make distance? |
| Steven_Crist: | I'm skeptical about both his quality and his getting the distance. |
| Steven_Crist: | All three Oaklawn races came up very slow. I think he's a bet-against. |
| Steven_Crist: | And he came home very slowly in Arkansas. |
| classhandicapper: | Q: What do you peg the probability of Sinister Minsiter duplicating his last race at? |
| Steven_Crist: | Somewhere aroun d 10 percent, which makes him playable, at least as a saver, at over 10-1. |
| Steven_Crist: | War Emblem was an overlay at 20-1, Bellamy Road was an underlay at 5-2. Sometimes they duplicate, sometimes they don't. |
| ruffian689: | Q: Hi Steve, love your columns - Illman and Beyer see the race two different ways, do you think stalker, closers will have their way? |
| Steven_Crist: | I can't take horses who will be pressing but not clear, like Sharp Humor or Like Now. To me those are the easiest throwouts. But whether the winner will come from 8th, 14th or 20th, I don't know. |
| unlucky_2: | Q: steve what do think of bluegrass cat |
| Steven_Crist: | I think he has possibilities. I picked him third. He was genuine quality as a 2-year-old and his Blue Grass was so bad it couldn't be true. At 30-1, he's worth a flyer. Horses are often overlays in this race off a single bad race in their final prep. |
| MayorofMP: | Q: 1-2-3 |
| Steven_Crist: | Only because I had to make selections, I picked the race Sweetnorthernsaint, Showing Up, Bluegrass Cat, Jazil. |
| Steven_Crist: | I just don;t want the favorites |
| Silver_Charm: | Q: Is AP Warrior a 'wise-guy' horse and do you like his chances? |
| Steven_Crist: | He does seem to have surpassed SNS as the coinsensus "Wiseguy Horse"...I think he's going to be a shorter price than most people expect. I have nothing against him, I'm just not as enamored of him as other handicappers are. |
| SECRET-_-ROMEO: | Q: Cause to Believe has run his best race closing into a fast pace, set by Sinister Minister, and seems to get another pace setup in the Ky Derby. What kind of chance to you give the Ky Derby to fall to another closing 50-1 shot; Cause to Believe? |
| Steven_Crist: | One problem this year is that the deep, deep closers are about the slowest horses in the race -- Jazil, Steppenwolfer, CTB. Of those, I prefer Jazil because I think he has a genuine turn-of-foot acceleration which the other plodders may not. |
| FATBOY: | Q: Hi...My question is about Dual Qualifiers. How do you feel about DQ's, since they seem to have falling out of favbor in recent years, thanks |
| Steven_Crist: | I like horses who run well at 2 but I never liked the Dual Qualifier thing because I think Dosage has been exposed as a very unreliable foirmula. |
| ron: | Q: Steve great reporting over the years, Is there any truth to the rumor that Sweetnorthernsaint has stiffness in his hind quarters. |
| Steven_Crist: | It's not really a "rumor," it's something that Mike Welsch reported yesterday. I'd wait for Mike's further reporting tomorrow and Saturday before making a decision based on what he saw oin Wednesday. |
| georgieboy: | Q: Steve....Private Vow loves the track. I know his #'s are low but can he top his best by enough to grab a good piece of the pie? |
| Steven_Crist: | There's some tiny chance that he'll finally run back to what he showed last year and he's set for his best making his third start of the season. But there's still a big distance question with him even if he does fire his best. |
| myzguy: | Q: with so many variables in this the most difficult of the triple crown events -where do you start your handicap theories from |
| Steven_Crist: | You still have to start the way you do with any race -- where is the quality, who are the best horses. Then you look at the race shape and the possible scenarios, and then you look at expected price and value. |
| bthoman: | Q: Hey Steve, can you give us 5 throw outs? |
| Steven_Crist: | I did that last year and gave you the Derby exacta. So go box.... |
| Steven_Crist: | Seaside Retreat, Storm Treasure, Sharp Humor, Like Now andFlashy Bull. |
| kmunster04: | Q: why do u like Showing Up? He benefitted from a perfect inside out trip at Keeneland |
| Steven_Crist: | I just think he has more upside than anyone in the race. With just three starts -- all of them good -- he's eligible to move way way forward whereas a horse like Lawyer Ron, with 14 starts, we've probably seen the best of. |
| Steven_Crist: | Sorry, I know Like Now's not in the race, I meant Keyed Entry. |
| JJDOLAN: | Q: What is Mr. Hendricks thinking? Choosing Post 18 rather than Post 3? By my count, he's giving up about 70 feet of real estate. Geometry is hard to bet against. |
| Steven_Crist: | I guess his thinking is that he wants to stalk the speed from the outside rather than be under the gun inside. |
| Sweet_Penny: | Q: Have you changed your mind about a horse while watching the post parade? |
| Steven_Crist: | Never. I'm not big on body language and besides, I play 90 percent multirace wagers so I'm locked in well before the post parade. |
| Sunday_Silence: | Q: I loved Point Given...can Point Determined get it done? |
| Steven_Crist: | I don;t think he's anywhere near as talented as Point Given, but I do think he'll like the distance. |
| chestnut: | Q: Hi Steven, I'm new to betting exotics so my question relates to how best to play the five picks I've made. I want to do some form of trifecta using these five. What's the best type of bet for this? A boxed trifecta with five horses? Thanks. Chestnut. |
| Steven_Crist: | GO ahead and spend the $60 so you won't torture yourself forever if it comes in but realize your chances are very very slim -- you're only buying 60 out of nearly 8,000 possible combinations. And don't forget to play the exactas, which will be plenty juicy in a 20-horse field. |
| whiphand: | Q: what do you think of Barbaro' chances? |
| Steven_Crist: | He's a seriously nice horse but my guy says he's better on grass. To take him at 4-1 off one fast-track dirt race where he was life and death to beat Sharp Humor just doesn't appeal to me. |
| Steven_Crist: | Oops, that wa supposed to be my gut, not my guy. |
| austin: | Q: Can Bro Derek go the distance? |
| Steven_Crist: | Sure he can if he gets loose in a five-horse field. I don;t want him at 3-1 in a 20-horse field where there's going to be more speed and so many more rivals than he's ever seen. |
| Kitan: | Q: Bob And John showed he can close in the San Felipe. How do you think he will fare? |
| Steven_Crist: | He closed midrace but then he flattened out. He just seems half a notch below the other Californians. |
| ginger_one: | Q: Success in the Bluegrass Stakes hasn't translated into Derby success recently. Any reason to think that this year will be any different? |
| Steven_Crist: | It always pays to be skeptical of the Blue Grass. But Sinister Minister's race was genuinely spectacular. I wouldn't want him at 3-1 but if he's 12-1 there are worse flyers and I'll use him defensively as a backup in my multirace bets. |
| darren: | Q: sweetnorthernsaint....24.3 in final quarter and 12.1 in final 8th on a track bias of 27, which is the average per 2005 pars. The only problem i have is that he's raced against slow fractions. Your thoughts.. |
| Steven_Crist: | The whole key with him is whether he can really sit back and finish as well as he did against slow fractions (and bad horses) in Illinois. He's as fast or faster than the favorites and he's going to be twice thehir price. That's why I picked him. |
| Pony: | Q: Showing Up made three moves in the Coolmore-Lex. Is he that talented or did Tagg get a case of Derby Fever? |
| Steven_Crist: | Tagg is the last guy who would contract Derby fever. He hates the hooplaq and isn't exactly crazy about the press. He genuinely likes this horse. |
| twaan1: | Q: Flashy Bull dissapointed in FLA yet my gut tells me he belongs. Given the outside post is he worth 10 across the board?? |
| Steven_Crist: | Outside post or not, I don;t know how good he is. Remember, he races for a public syndicate and I think they're thrilled just to be here for the marketing benefits of making a start. |
| The_Har-rah: | Q: Steve - how do you rank each of the California horses this year? |
| Steven_Crist: | From a combination of talent and expected price, I prefer A.P. Warrior, who seems to have room to improve and who actually tried to win the SA Derby making a midrace move at Bro Derek. I thought he ran better than Point Determined, who kind of clunked up when the race was over. |
| bayside: | Q: The Wood Mem. used to produce sure horses to hit the board in the Derby.This year? |
| Steven_Crist: | It was unquestionable a weak Wood. No empire Makers or Funny Cides. Baffert was very smart to send B&J instead of being fourth best at Santa Anita. |
| Sunday_Silence: | Q: I want to bet a 4 horse exacta box but there are 5 I like, so who do I toss between Lawyer Ron, Barbaro, Point Determined, AP Warrior, and Sinister Minister? |
| Steven_Crist: | I would toss Lawyer Ron. I think he's both the mosgt overrrated and the shortest price in your quintet. Go for the glory. |
| Big_Daddy: | Q: Steve, any idea when your new book "Exotics" will hit the newstand? |
| Steven_Crist: | "Exotic Betting" ships from the printer June 1, should be available Belmont Week. Thanks for the plug. |
| Virginia: | Q: Steve, pretend that you have $100 to spend on the race. How would you spend it and on which horses? |
| Steven_Crist: | I suppose I'd bet my four picks to win since they're all going to be double digits and box them in the exacta. But I'd rather put that $100 into the pick four and be alive to as many as possible for a better score. |
| kmunster04: | Q: what number Beyer speed figure do u think will be enough to win the Derby? over 110 or less |
| Steven_Crist: | That really depends on how the race unfolds. If there's a meltdown and it falls apart, a Giacomo-like 99 could land a Jazil in the the roses. |
| MICHAELMANNC: | Q: Why do east coast horses get more respect than west coast horses? |
| Steven_Crist: | Probably because there's more interaction among NY, Kentucky and Florida while the West Coast horses run on a separate planet against one another. |
| superay: | Q: Steve, I want to spend about 1,000 on a superfecta how many horses in each place would you bet. Key or horse or what other strategy would you use. |
| Steven_Crist: | No dime supers on the Derby unfortunately so at a one-dollar minimum your $1,000 will only get you a seven-horse box. So I think keying is better than boxing in a 20-horse field where something like 14 of them are eligible to be fourth. |
| Aptitude: | Q: Do you think that my son, Steppenwolfer, can fly late for a piece of the pie? |
| Steven_Crist: | "Fly" and steppenwolfer have rarely been used in the same sentence but he could grind along for fourth if there's a collapse. |
| Jasper: | Q: Who do you think qualifies as this year's "Wiseguy horse that because he is the wiseguy horse won't win" |
| Steven_Crist: | It's either SNS or AP Warrior. SInce Andy's on one and I'm on the other, they're probably both doomed. |
| Sha-na-na: | Q: Andy Beyer says he never listens to jockeys' opinions. How do you stand on that? |
| Steven_Crist: | Pretty much the same. I'll listen to anyone's opinion but not necessarily put much credence in it. |
| Steven_Crist: | Remember that jockeys have a vested interest in retaining mounts and therefore saying nice things aboiut the horses they ride. But I'll listen to a knock from a jockey any time. |
| chatdora: | Q: Trying to figure out what the odds on the top 4-5 horses this year are going to be at post time is very difficult. What is your best guess as to what the odds will be on the top 4-5 horses? |
| Steven_Crist: | I'm very interested to see the "Giacomo effect" on this year's betting. The three favorites are 3-1, 4-1 and 4-1 on the line, but that's 50 percent of the pool right there and I don't know that they're really going to be that short. Then you've got horses such as SNS and AP Warrior who could be anywhere from 7-1 to 12-1. |
| bertrando: | Q: Steven, do you think McLaughlin is making a mistake by staying with Jara on Jazil. Everyone thinks this horse is huge closer but Velasquez had been much closer to the pace. |
| Steven_Crist: | Jara seems to get this horse to really run late and that's Jazil's only chance. I don;t want him closer to the pace. |
| Steven_Crist: | Good night and good luck, and thanks for coming! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Kentucky Derby! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Kentucky Derby Day past performances are on sale now! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | If you arrived late, we will be posting a transcript of tonight's chat within the hour in the DRF.com Kentucky Derby section. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | In the words of Stanley Bergstein, good night all. |
