Tuesday - May 2, 2006
| Andy Beyer: | Hello, everybody. I should say at the outset that I haven't completely finalized my selections that will appear in Saturday's DRF. I'm confused by this Derby. As you surely know, I'm wedded to our speed figures, which have done very well in the Derby over the last decade. But I have serious reservations about all three horses that have the top Beyer numbers in this race--Sinister Minister, Brother Derek and Sweeetnorthernsaint. Your questions, please. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming to tonight's Kentucky Derby chat, we'll start with a question from soup_and_a burger... |
| soup_and_a_burger: | Q: Mr. Beyer, How do you approach betting a race like the Kentucky Derby on the win end? For example, do you fixate yourself on a particular horse or two or are there a few horses that you wouldn't bet at odds of even say 193-1? Thank you and good luck! |
| Andy Beyer: | I wouldn't approach this race looking for a win bet. I think the great appeal of the Derby, with the 20 horse field, is the chance to separate the contenders from noncontenders and shoot for a giant score in the trifecta and superfecta. But this is not the type of race where I'd try to narrow my bet to a single horse. |
| BigScore: | Q: AB - Do you think that this race will fall apart like last year's? Isn't Sinister Minister this year's Spanish Chestnut with a slightly better shot? |
| Andy Beyer: | I think this race will fall apart. Sinister Minister is no Spanish Chestnut--he ran a phenomenal race at Keeneland and he would be a strong contender under other circumstances--but with Sharp Humor and Keyed Entry in the field I don't see how he can avoid getting involved in a suicidal pace. Even if the pinheads are trying consciously to slow the pace down, I don't see how the can do it with these horses. |
| isitingood: | Q: Could Lawyer Ron (who is now being sold?) and those who couldn't beat him, be possible toss outs based on their soft beyer numbers? |
| Andy Beyer: | Visually, Lawyer Ron has been pretty impressive. He's consistent and he seems versatile enough to sit off the pace. But with those weak figures, I can't bet him, and I certainly can't play the likes of Steppenwolfer, who was chasing him in Arkansas. |
| Partymanners: | Q: Andy, which of the "preps" impressed you the most? |
| Andy Beyer: | Sinister Minister's Blue Grass. That was an awesome performance--the second-best figure in a prep race since we have been publishing our numbers. |
| jrtrackman: | Q: Andy,I really think SweetNorthersaint is the real deal.My only concern is how he reacts to the expected fast pace.How do you assess his chances? |
| Andy Beyer: | Here's what troubles me about Sweetnorthernsaint: watching the film of his race in the Gotham. (By the way, replays of all the Derby preps are available at kentuckyderby.com.) He was sitting on the tail of the one-dimensional speedster Keyed Entry when he turned into the stretch, and couldn't get past him. That doesn't bode well for his finishing strong at 10 furlongs. Yes, the Illinois Derby was good, but he was pressing a slow pace and the two speeds ran 1-2 around the track. |
| Joe_2: | Q: Does the long lay-off scare you completely away from Barbaro? |
| BrentyBull: | Q: Andy, was the Wood figure tough to do, considering it was the the only two turn race of the day? |
| Andy Beyer: | Yes., Mark Hopkins, who does our New York figures, initially made it several points lower. In fact, many of the days of key prep races were somewhat ambiguous from the speed-figure standpoint, particularly the Illinois Derby. It came up giant, and we scaled it downward to a more plausible number, 109. Now I wonder if that figure was even a little high. Alas, this is not always an exact science. |
| kelso: | Q: Andy, I think showing up is in over his head, do you agree and what is your thoughts on him. |
| Andy Beyer: | As I wrote, I respect Barclay Tagg a lot, but I can't possibly see this horse winning with his light preparation and with a speed figure of 99 earned with a perfect trip. |
| rickyb: | Q: Is too much emphasis put on morning workouts leading up to the race? |
| Andy Beyer: | No. The people who really know what they're doing, who know how to watch works and interpret them, have important information that lets them eliminate horses who look good like contenders on paper. But just looking at the horses' times, and the headlines, and reading the b.s. trainers' quotes about the works is utterly useless. |
| mace: | Q: In the past I could use dosage to eliminate some horses but lately that does not seem to be the case. Why? |
| Andy Beyer: | Dosage was always a fraud, but pedigree did used to be very important in the Derby. If a horse had the bloodlines of a sprinter, you could once eliminate him even if his form looked good. But now there are very few true 1 1/4 horses bred in America, and horses with sprint-oriented pedigrees like Funny Cide can win the Derby. |
| Chuckles_the_Clown: | Q: Andy, your one of the most influential and knowledgeable individuals in the game. A Terrific writer, gifted in the use of the language. It won't detract from your standing if it doesnt happen here. But we'd like to see you pick the Derby winner this year. |
| Andy Beyer: | I'm certainly going to try. |
| meadowlakeman: | Q: garrett gomez is red hot and wins on everyting he touches, so given his pick of bob and john do you weigh this into your thought process? |
| Andy Beyer: | I give no credence to jockeys' opiniioins. |
| classhandicapper: | Q: Do you think the fast pace Lawyer Ron's set in his last race impacted his Beyer number enough that he is actually a major contender if he rates? |
| Andy Beyer: | Well, his last three figures are 98, 94, 95, so I don't think you could conclude that the trip impacted his last fig. He just may be too slow. |
| indy_run: | Q: Andy, if Brother Derek gets the perfect trip would you say he is the horse to beat? |
| Andy Beyer: | He's not going to get the perfect trip as he's betting getting in California, and one of my key betting opinions in this Derby would be to take a stand against him. His two big performances have come in fields of 4 and 5 where he was the solitary speed horse. I'm not impressed by his 108s under the circumstances. (A great horse would have run much faster under the circumstances.) Now he's going to be chasing a bunch of killer speed horses. Throw him out. |
| msully13: | Q: Andy, there is a TON of speed in this race, what are your thoughts of it holding up, and, if so, what are the predicted fractions you see? |
| Andy Beyer: | I don't know what the fractions will be, but I was reviewing the Derby history book, and here was its lesson. When the first quarter of the Derby is run faster than 22.60 seconds, every horse near the lead will collapse and horses coming from out of the clouds will dominate the race at the end. I have a hunch we'll be seeing a pace faster than 22.60. if the track is fast Saturday. |
| Unitas: | Q: Been hearing rumors abound about Discreet Cat being a last minute entry for the Run for the Roses....any merit to these rumors, or are they just that? Thanks |
| Andy Beyer: | The sheikh's management of his horses has been pretty irrational, but not this irrational. |
| NOKOOL: | Q: Can Sharp Humor be this years funny cide if he rates instead of guns to the lead like his trainer is saying? |
| Andy Beyer: | No. He's not good enough, and even Dale Romans has given the impression that he can't rate. |
| Czar_R: | Q: Andy, you mentioned the 3 speed horses in the race, which of the 3 do you like to stick around at the end for 2nd or 3rd, if at all? |
| Andy Beyer: | I'm going to be betting on the assumption of a total pace meltdown, with none of the leaders on the board at the finish. |
| chilly: | Q: Do you think the jocks will be too aware of a fast pace and back off, which will allow a wirere to win? |
| Andy Beyer: | Normally, I would think that's possible. Everybody has been talking so much about the probability of a hot pace that the jocks will surely try to avoid self-destruction. But I think there are too many fast, one-dimensional horses in this field for the riders to avoid a suicidal pace. |
| hobber: | Q: With all the speed what's Jazil chances?? |
| Andy Beyer: | When he made that eye-catching move at the end of the Wood, the race was really falling apart after a fast pace. With his figure of 97, I certainly can't like him. But if the pace does collapse, you can be sure that there will be one or two horses like Jazill, with poor figures and the right stretching-running style, who clunk up to get a piece of the superfecta. I hope I can guess which ones they will be. |
| msully13: | Q: Do you think Barbero's FL Derby (only a 103 buyer) was for real? Where do you see him finishing in the derby? |
| Andy Beyer: | Barbaro is the mystery horse in this race. I think he's the most talented horse in the field--though perhaps he's only a turf horse. Like most people, I wasn't thrilled by his Florida Derby. But he was breaking from post 10 at 1 1/8 miles that day, forcing Prado to hustle to get position. On the turf, this was a horse with a phenomenal late kick. I wonder if he could be sitting 10th mid way through the Derby and unleash that kick when the race falls apart. |
| 3dee: | Q: Andy - Between A.P. Warrior and Point Determined, would you give the nod to A.P. with his better 2 year old base? |
| Andy Beyer: | I think both horses are real contenders; both could be finishing strong. I really liked the way A. P. Warrior ran in the San Felipe. He rated off the pace, outkicked Bob and John on the turn; when Point Determined came at him in the stretch, he rebuffed the challenge and was pulling away at the finish. Based on that race, A. P. Warrior is the better of the two. I'd love him in the Derby if the figure for the San Felipe had been higher than 101, but I still think he's got a big shot. |
| sebakira: | Q: what do you think about Keyed Entry |
| Andy Beyer: | He's a good horse and will probably be a good example of a horse who shouldn't be pushed into the Kentucky Derby. He'd probably be a top-class miler, but a lot of horses get ruined by going into the Triple Crown when they're not cut out for the longer distances. |
| nokool: | Q: Andy,Can Smith win it again with Flashy Bull your thoughts? |
| Andy Beyer: | You've got to be kidding. I'm not sure Smith could win if he were on the reincarnation of Secretariat. He was riding so poorly at Gulfstream this winter that the strongest handicapping angle at the meeting was "Mike Smith off." |
| dovedot: | Q: the favourites for the 2000 guineas in England are coming off a 7 month layoff, what makes the kentucky derby so different that they have had to race 3 times this season? |
| donnybeisbol: | Q: I've noticed a proliferation of horses entering the Derby off sub-par preps, simply because connections want to be in the big dance. Are there any 'bad-prep' contenders this year with a legitimate excuse? Thanks! |
| Andy Beyer: | I think it's disgraceful that some of these horses are being entered. It's one thing for a small-timer to take a once-in-a-lifetime shot at the Derby with a pad horse, but what is the Farish family doing putting Seaside Retreat in this race after a 32-length Blue Grass loss? |
| Virginia: | Q: Hi Andy-Time is almost up. Who do you think are the main contenders and how are you thinking about betting them? |
| Andy Beyer: | I'm going to put my emphasis on A. P. Warrior, Point Determined and Barbaro. I'll probably play the race with the premise that one of those three has to win. I'll throw out all the speed horses. I'll throw out Brother Derek. If I sue Sweetnorthernsaint and Lawyer Ron, it will be in a very small way. And I hope I can guess correctly as to the identity of the 50-to-1 shot who is going to plod up for third or fourth place after the speed has faded. |
| stormkitty: | Q: Andy, I stole $100 from my mom...who should I bet so I can pay her back...with interest? |
| Andy Beyer: | This is probably not the optimal spot to be risking your mother's money, but I'd take a gamble and box the three horses cited in the answer above. |
| Ed_2: | Q: Andy, I once heard Eddie Arcarro say that using the DRF that he could handicap a race in about three minutes. How do you go about handicapping a race, or more specifically, which things are most important to look at? |
| Andy Beyer: | Of course, I look first at my speed figures. And then I try to watch the recent races of all the horses, attempting to see things in the running of the race that may have eluded other bettors. This process takes longer than three minutes, I'm sorry to say. |
| Andy Beyer: | Thanks, everybody, for joining us. I have to go and bet against Paris on American Idol. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Kentucky Derby! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Kentucky Oaks Day past performances are on sale now! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Kentucky Derby Day past performances will be available on Wednesday night! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Be sure to join us tomorrow night from 7:00-8:00 pm Eastern for a chat with Dan Illman. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | In the words of Stanley Bergstein, good night all. |
