DRF_WebGrp:	Thanks for coming to tonight's Kentucky Derby chat, we'll start with a question from KirisClown2...
KirisClown2:	Q: Lauren, what are your thoughts on Sun King? Will the 10F be too far?
LAUREN_STICH:	Hardly. He's by Charismatic, who loved the distance, and his sire, Summer Squall was second in the Derby and won the Preakness. I expect a really good run from him here at good odds.
Point_Taken:	Q: Are u still tossing out High Fly?
LAUREN_STICH:	You have to respect what he's done thus far, but I've always believed he would be vulnerable with a lot of speed and going an extra furlong. Can't wait to see him on turf, however.
HORSEPLAYER944:	Q: Lauren, is pedigree handicapping for the Kentucky Derby not as potent a handicapping angle as in the past given the recent winners of the Derby?
LAUREN_STICH:	First of all, the Derby is definitely different as shown by the last three winners. This is due to American breeders breeding for speed, so we're breeding milers and asking them to win at 1 1/4 miles. That being said, pace is always the biggest factor in a race, and there is a lot of it this year, which does set up for those closers -- and those with more stamina to get 1 1/4 miles. I think the speed this year is very vulnerable. But pedigree absolutely matters!
warchant2000:	Q: hi lauren i read yr article in the drf a while back where u state that andromeda hero might be the best one in nick zito barn, i love the breeding do u give him a shot in saturday derby
LAUREN_STICH:	It's hardly a secret that I love Andromeda's Hero. While he hasn't shown the brilliance and doesn't have the Beyer or speed figures of the others, he is the kind of colt who you want in your exotics. His best quarter will no doubt be the final qaurter-mile, and he will be finishing like a bullet. Whether that's good enough to win, who knows? Zito has been secretly excited about him for a long time and wanted him in the gate at any cost because he's a true 1 1/4-1-1/2 mile horse
nationalvelvet:	Q: Wilko's dosage no. is 7. Why is it so high, his running style suggests a distance horse?
LAUREN_STICH:	This is just another example of why Dosage -- in its modern version anyway -- is flawed. There is no reason why a son of Awesome Again should have such a high Dosage number. His damsire was a miler, but 7.00 seems ridiculous, just as the pedigree of Strike the Gold and Monarhos
LAUREN_STICH:	did not reflect their high dosage.
LAUREN_STICH:	A big problem with Dosage is that it often does not include progeny of first-crop or young stallions, so the Dosage number is very misleading. Awesome Again may be a young sire, but it is clear from just Ghostzapper, and the fact that Awesome Again himself, won the BC classic.
GoForBroke:	Q: Are Tomlinson figs worth anything? In Derby,e.g, highest by far goes to Spanish Chestnut (421). Does this make any sense?
LAUREN_STICH:	He's by Horse Chestnut, a grandson of Sadler's Wells, and HC was a champion at classic distances in South Africa. But while his offspring should get a distance of ground, they are ultimately bred for turf, not dirt. And this number reflects the likelihood of his runners going far on turf -- it should be clarified.
go_biscuit:	Q: Is Bellamy Road a freak in the making?
LAUREN_STICH:	Well, his Wood Memorial was the single most impressive Derby prep in history. That being said, the big key to Bellamy Road will be whether he can rate. Thus far, he has not shown that he can -- and he will be hard pressed early, middle and late. He is by Concerto, a winner of only $1 million, and from a very classy female family. I think he is a big question mark because of his running style.
howard:	Q: i'm impressed with "noble causeway" and his ability to pass horses??? i believe he will relish the distance....what are your thoughts???
LAUREN_STICH:	From the first crop of the ultra-game and classy Giant's Causeway, Noble Causeway has a perfect pedigree for the Derby, and his stride at the end of the Florida Derby was spectacular. He is among my top 4 and will be running late.
cosmo:	Q: Does Flower Alley have any chance to win?
LAUREN_STICH:	Another very nice runner by Distorted Humor (see Funny Cide), I dom't see him as being at his best at the Derby distance but he should win a number of lesser 1 1/8 mile Derbies this year.
pay-bill:	Q: what do you think of bandini
LAUREN_STICH:	The "other" Fusaichi Pegasus (along with Andromeda's Hero) -- he arguably has one of the two best pedigrees for 1 1/4 miles in this Derby. More importantly, he's coming up to the race in rapidly improving fashion, and I look for him to be among the top 3.
buck_s_boy:	Q: Is Greeley's Galaxy bred to get 10f? He certainly looked impressive at 9.
LAUREN_STICH:	He is another colt who fits the pedigree pattern of the last 3 years -- by a miler stallion, who has handled 9 furlongs. Mr. Greeley's daughter Nonsuch Bay won the Mother Goose, and many of his offspring are running further than expected -- especially on grass. But 1 1/4 miles may be an 1/8 too far.
GoAlexGo:	Q: Who are your top 4...in order?
LAUREN_STICH:	Andromeda's Hero, Bandini, Noble Causeway and Bellamy Road
hank:	Q: Does Giacomo, have a shot, or should he still be in Cali with NW 1
LAUREN_STICH:	I don't think a son of Holy Bull will ever be much of a factor at 1 1/4 miles -- but they do especially move up on grass, so watch for him down the road on turf.
bob:	Q: Good eveing Lauren, many people think Afleet Alex is a ? at 1 1/4. I find it hard to believe that he's the one singled out , interms of potential stamina given his Dam's family. What are your thought?
LAUREN_STICH:	Again, he fits the pedigree pattern of the last 3 Derby winners, so he can't be easily dismissed because he's by sprinter/miler stallion, Northern Afleet. Genetics is not an exact science as we all know, and while Afleet Alex's brother, Unforgettable Max is a true sprinter, it just may be that AA gets more stamina from his damsire, Hawkster -- a specialist at 1 1/2 miles on the turf.
Norm:	Q: You addressed the Dosage issue in regard to Wilco, but you didn't indicate whether or not he has a chance. Is his pedigree strong enough?
LAUREN_STICH:	He definitely has a shot at 1 1/4 miles, and should be among the colts finishing the best. But again, I like AH, Bandini, NC ahead of him. And definitely throw in Sun King with Wilko, to also be finishing well.
Titan:	Q: The turf race before the derby is a loaded field. Whats your opinion on America Alive in race as i want to wheel him in doubles?
LAUREN_STICH:	I loved Mustanfar last year -- for the Derby, but he just didn't develop quickly enough, and he was pointed for the turf. It just may be his year this year, but don't forget about Perfect Drift, who has always shown ability on turf. Those are the two I'm looking at for the Woodford Reserve.
buck_s_boy:	Q: Baffert says Sort It Out will only get better as the distance increases. Does his breeding agree with that assumption?
LAUREN_STICH:	Absolutely not. Have no idea where Baffert is coming from with that statement. If he does improvev with distance, he'll be the only Out of Place offspring to do so. Most of his runners, like Orville n' Wilburs, Certain, etc., are speed types. Out of Place weas a good middle distance colt by Cox's Ridge, but his runners are known for high, high speed. Sort It Out doesn't have that kind of speed, but I can't imagine he'd be at his best at 1 1/4 miles against top company.
funnycide:	Q: can we expect coin silver to do anything in the race? after all he does have one of the best jockey's in pval
LAUREN_STICH:	Well, I was a big fan of Coin silver's sire, Anees and picked him to win the BC Juvy. Unfortunately, Anees died before his first crop started racing, and coin Silver is from this first crop. This is a good colt, and I expect more from him later in the year, but it may be asking too much to go after the Derby. But you can't blame them after he won the Lexington -- a quickly developing 3-y-o in the spring is always dangerous. I'd use him only underneath in exotics.
golf_papa:	Q: Doesn't High Limits breeding suggest route/close. I think he'll be rated this Sat
LAUREN_STICH:	He's by Maria's Mon, the sire of Monarchos, but monarchos had a ton of staying power from his classic Darby Dan female line. High Limit's dam is an RF (Rasmussen Factor), and is inbred to Tamerett -- an outstanding broodmare, but High Limit's damsire, Known Fact, was a miler and is more of a speed
LAUREN_STICH:	influence than stamina influence. No, I think he's going to be right on the pace -- but his lack of seasoning is what concerns me most. Definitely a better candidate for the Preakness.
Shadowman1012:	Q: Dont Get Mad....3 races in Cal and really only the Santa Anita was bad....but 3 wins at Churhill Downs.....Upset shot?????
LAUREN_STICH:	Like so many horses, it just may be that he needed to get away from California, like say, Timber Country. A champion at 2, he was mediocre during the winter preparing for the Derby, but ran fastest of all in the derby to finish third, which set up his Preakness win. He is from the very first crop of s sire, Stephen Got Even, and yes, he is bred for 1 1/4 miles. Big question is timing -- did a race just 7 days ago take too much out of him?
Dutch:	Q: Bellamy Road's monster Beyer was at 9 furlongs - I take it you don't think his pedigree is strong enough to support the extra furlong in the KD? Or do you just think he'll regress off such a big effort?
LAUREN_STICH:	His pedigree is very good for 1 1/4 miles -- but his running style, in a year with so much speed signed on in the Derby, is the question. The key to his success is his willingness to rate. Pure and simple, because he's got pedigree.
maxstables:	Q: Lauren, What's your take on the 50yr old Derby trends; Unraced two year olds don't win, Can't win without three preps and can't win having not raced in April?
LAUREN_STICH:	First of all, times are definitely a-changin'. But the most improtant thing here is common sense. The reason why emphasis was always put on starts as a 2-y-o was conditioning, and that will always be important -- to have a solid foundation. But there are so many horses this year coming in off only two or three preps, some 5 weeks out, etc., the trend will eventually be broken. And yes, even a BC Juvenile winner and/or 2-y-o champion will eventually win the Derby
saratoga_guy:	Q: Dear Ms. Stich: Could you please address High Fly's breeding for the mile & 1/4
LAUREN_STICH:	His sire Atticus held the world record for one mile on turf, but also was a major winner on dirt. This is one game and talented animal, but there are many questions with him: First, he's facing a lot more speed than he's ever faced before, and I question his ability to sustain a strong run going an additional furlong against a number of horses who will unquestionably love the distance. He'll be a factor as long as he can last, but I see him fading late.
SPQR:	Q: would agree that bellamy road hasn't beaten a horse of any signifigance ever?
LAUREN_STICH:	Yes -- that may be true, but Seattle Slew beat up on truly mediocre fields in the Derby.....he's doing what he's doing by large margins because the fields were ordinary. Doesn't mean that the talent isn't there, but what I do have questions on his ability to rate. This is a difficult race to prove something you have not previously shown.
smartywasnoparty:	Q: who is your pick in the oaks...for those of us trying to put together a double
LAUREN_STICH:	Well, aside from the Dutrow "magic" and his Sis City, the Oaks is usually won by a filly coming off the pace, and with Summerly, Rugula and Sis City going at it on the front end (remember, this isn't Keeneland), I like In the Gold and Runway Model.
771183:	Q: Lauren, Going Wild has a stamina X2 pedigree, out of Golden Missile (AP Indy) -- whom easily got 10f -- from Pola, a mare out of world-wide stamina influence Strawberry Road. His female tail (Pola-Nureyev's Best-Meadow Blue-Gay Hostess-Boudoir II)
LAUREN_STICH:	You'd think Going Wild would love 1 1/4 miles, but the most important thing in pedigree handicapping is *observation*. Thus far, with just his first crop, Golden Missile (a son of AP Indy) is showing signs of being a speed influence. Inspiring has a ton of speed, and many of his 2-y-o's last year also showed good early speed. Yes, even with Strawberry Road as his damsire, Going Wild is showing the same speed that most of the other Golden Missiles are showing. Class-wise, there isn't a better female family -- it produced Majestic Prince, Real Quiet, Graustark, His Majesty, etc. But obviously this colt is just not ready for such a race. But his 59 breezing work signaled that he will be a pace factor along with Spanish Chestnut.
Titan:	Q: Your opinion on Greater Good? He won the CD race last year as a 2yo and should benefit from a fast pace ?
LAUREN_STICH:	Anothercolt who has already outrun his sprinter's pedigree. His sire, Intidab is by Phone Trick, and while his dam is by Travers winner General Assembly, his second dam is champion sprinter, What a Summer (What Luck -- by Bold Ruler). His running style is opposite of his pedigree, and while he's shown talent at 1 1/16 miles, I just can't see him being at his best at 1 1/4 miles.
Sam:	Q: What can you tell us about Mullins' horse?
LAUREN_STICH:	His sire, Marco Bay, was a dozen lengths betetr on turf, and his second sire, Copelan, was strictly a sprinter whose offspring wanted no more than 1 1/16 miles, at best. Don't think he has any chance in the Derby -- and his post 20 just about took care of any chances he may have had.
jasper:	Q: Who was Intidab, and was he a sire who can a route of ground
LAUREN_STICH:	He was a sprinter/miler whose best race was winning the A Phenomenon over Artax and Yes It's True at Saratoga. By Phone Trick out of a Mr. Prospector mare, he was all about speed and he only had six foals from his first crop -- but 3 winners and 1 stakes winner -- Greater Good.
go_biscuit:	Q: War Emblem ran through the wind in the Illinois Derby, Funny Cide went head to head with Empire Maker in the Wood, and Smarty Jones just kept racking up the wins last year...that said, how can you really see Andromeda's Hero winning the roses?
LAUREN_STICH:	The Kentucky Derby -- more than any other race -- is about projection, because it's the first time 3-y-o's are being asked to go 1 1/4 miles. As I stated earlier, these are different times we're living in, and the breeding practices starting in the mid-70s strictly for speed, are now evident with the past 3 Derby winners. I'm not saying Afleet Alex or Flower Alley can't win at 1 1/4 miles, I *do* think their effectiveness should be diminished the farther they go. Again, it's not just what they have done thus far at shorter distances -- that's obvious. It's "who is going to be better at 1 1/4 miles?" I'm willing to lose my future bet on a horse who is bred to relish the distance while others may be fading -- especially when that future bet was 300-1! Even if you like the speed horses this year, you should at least be putting Andromeda's Hero in your second, third and fourth spots on all exotic tickets. It could make your day.
LAUREN_STICH:	Thanks very much for your questions -- good luck everyone!
DRF_WebGrp:	Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Kentucky Derby 131!
DRF_WebGrp:	If you arrived late, we will be posting a transcript of tonight's chat within the hour in the DRF.com Kentucky Derby section.
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DRF_WebGrp:	Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Kentucky Derby 131!
DRF_WebGrp:	In the words of our good friend Stanley Bergstein, good night all.