derbyfritz:	Q: steve ..give me your top three for picks for the derby.... thanks
Steven_Crist:	GOo evening all, and thanks for coming.
Steven_Crist:	Okay: 1. Bellamy Road
Steven_Crist:	2. Afleet Alex
Steven_Crist:	3. Sun King.
Steven_Crist:	Thank you and good night.
greystable:	Q: Good Evening Steve...Do you think BELLAMY ROAD will bounce of his Wood performance and your feelings on him only having 2 races under his belt
Steven_Crist:	I'm not a big bounce believer in general, and it's not as if he's coming back on short rest off some grueling duel.
Steven_Crist:	TVery good horses break rules like the two-preps thing, and this could be a very, very good horse.
Big_2na:	Q: Do you think that Afleet Alex will take betting action and is there a chance he could go off as the favorite?
Steven_Crist:	I think he'll be a very clear second choice and he should be.
Steven_Crist:	I dont think there's any chance Bellamy Road won;t be the favorite.
Kingdaly:	Q: Despite there being many front runners, is there a chance Spanish Chestnut is out front alone? Why would jockey's compromise their horses chances in a speed duel with a rabbit with no chance of winning.
Steven_Crist:	I think it's disgraceful that Spanish Chestnut is running. He has zero chance of winning and the Kentucky derby does not need rabbits. Tabor and Smith may need rabbits in England where without one they might run the first half in 54, but this horse is just clutteing up the field. You could give him a 10-length headstart and he still wouldn't win.
paulie_walnuts:	Q: Was Sun Kings trip last time out bad enough to give him an excuse for the result?? His start wasn't clean and he was 3 wide most of the way....
Steven_Crist:	I don't know if he had a huge excuse, but I do know that a lot of horses, for whatever reason, flounder at Keeneland in their final prep. This is a horse who was close to afleet Alex last year, ran a huge season debut, and if you can overlook the Blue Grass effort, is eligible to jump up and be competitive.
Steven_Crist:	I don;t think there are a lot of appealing longshots this year. He's one of them.
Baldy:	Q: If Bellamy Road is as good as his latest performance would suggest, could he run a similar race as War Emblem did?
Steven_Crist:	I don;t think he'll try to gate to wire. There's plenty of bad speed in the race -- Spanish Chestnut, Going Wild, High Limit -- that he can sit a close fourth down the backstretch and he ought to be able to go by that bunch whenever he pleases.
KirisClown2:	Q: Steve, can Giacomo hit the board at a huge price?
Steven_Crist:	He couldn't hit the board in a bAD Santa anita derby. Why should he do it facing 10 to 20 better horses than he's ever raced against?
SwordMage:	Q: What do you think Don't Get Mad's chances are with only a week's rest since his Trial win?
Steven_Crist:	The one week doesn't bother me; horses used to run in the derby off four days' rest and do well. My problem with DGM is a)he's not very fast and b)he may well be a closing sprinter/miler rather than a real router.
ChucklestheClown:	Q: Steve. what are the lowest off time odds you would accept upon Bellamy to bet him to win
Steven_Crist:	That depends on how ikely a winner you think he is. If you think he's 40 percent, then 3-2 is a square price. If he's the real deal, $7.60 will look like a steal in retrospect.
dr61258:	Q: your buddy beyer hates High Limit.Do you think he is live for the Tri?
Steven_Crist:	I don;t see him. He's a suspect speed horse who doesn't figure to improve with more pace pressure or added distance. It's not clear that he's a legit Grade 1 kind of horse. The only reason to consider him is out of respect for Frankel.
Van_Savant:	Q: High Fly, Noble Causeway, and Bandini ran a combined 11 races at Gulfstream this year. No variants were published for their races. Are you confident in the Beyer Speed Figures for these races, or do you have a sense of skepticism?
Steven_Crist:	The Beyers for those races were pretty straightforward.
Steven_Crist:	The reason there were no published variants is that it was a brand new racing surface and track records were being set every half hour.
mrcthree:	Q: Can Wilko move up enough to contend after his recent sharper works ?
Steven_Crist:	I have a lot of trouble making a horse with A Beyer top of 99 after 14 career starts win the race but I think he's live underneath. I think he ran best of the bad lot in the SA Derby.
contrarian:	Q: Bandini is improving every race, another 3-4 lengths improvement gets him near beyer 110, and if Bellamy Road is one dimensional, he's right there? How about that take?
Steven_Crist:	My problem with Bandini, especially at an unappetizing 6-1, is that no one else in the Blue Grass ran an inch. So I think the running line looks better than it is. Look, anyone who jumps up 10 points is going to make an impact, but why should it be him?
THOMASD:	Q: STEVEN GIVE US AT LEAST FIVE TOSS OUTS
Steven_Crist:	Only five? There are so many this year. Okay, how about Spanish Chestnut, Closing argument, GTiacomo, Flower Alley and Androomeda's Hero.
NUNESS:	Q: Hey Steven, it seems as if every Derby prep this year has been degraded. You hear people say "yeah, he won but whom did he beat?" about nearly every winner. In your opinion, what prep was the best this year and why?
Steven_Crist:	The Wood and the Arkansas Derby, in that order, were by far the two best performances. They were the fastest fig-wise, both winners finished strongly as if 10f won't be an issue. Bellamy Road was awesome and Afleet Alex was just super-solid, as he always is.
Baba:	Q: I found today's events very interesting, I think the alternate gate will most likely produce a winner. However, after seeing Noble Causeway in the Florida Derby he seems to be a be a decent value. He will defintately be the key to my ticket. Do you agree?
Steven_Crist:	I prefer Noble Causeway to the other Floridians, High Fly and Bandini, because I think he's as good, he'll be the biggest price, and he may have the most room for improvement.
corkey:	Q: How about a 4th choice for the superfecta? Who can slug up there fourth?
Steven_Crist:	I had to pick someone for fourth so I took Wilko.
silvercharm:	Q: Why does Buzzards Bay not get any respect?
Steven_Crist:	Because he won a slow race at 30-1 and because a lot of people disrespect his trainer.
TRI1182:	Q: Hi Steve. 9 of the last 11 winners have had 2 or more Beyers of 100 or more yet only 3 or 4 qualify to that this year. Comments?.
Steven_Crist:	That's a really key stat. I think there's a misconception that the Derby is a completely chaotic race where any bum who's run a 90 can jump up and win. In fact, even the longshot winners -- Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide -- in recent years all ran figs of 108 before the Derby. It's just that few people wanted to believe them.
go_biscuit:	Q: Steve, go crazy with $100...how do you play it?
Steven_Crist:	I use only Bellamy Road and Afleet Alex in pick fours and try to get 20-1 shots home in the other three legs. Then I bet $20 to win on Sun King for insanity insurance.
Steven_Crist:	Someone asked about Coin Silver. I don't get him. I think the slop moved him up last time and he doesn't have a competitive fast-track race.
I_m_4_Alex:	Q: I'm a bit nervous about Jeremy Rose abord Alex...is that a legit concern?
Steven_Crist:	Yes it's legit, because he gave him questionable rides in both the Champagne and the BC Juvenile. But he knows the horse better than anyone and has confidence in him so that counts for something.
Kitan:	Q: How do you think post 16 will affect Bellamy Road?
Steven_Crist:	They wanted to stalk the cheap speed from the outside so they got what they wanted. He shouldn't be worse than 4th or 5th into the turn.
Ruffian:	Q: Steve, what does Dosage have to say this year??
Steven_Crist:	Nothing worth listening to, as usual.
Tippy:	Q: Other than BR and AA, who can improve their Beyer's enought to hit 110-115?
Steven_Crist:	Horses who have that kind of a jump in them are likelier to be lightly-raced, like Bellamy Road was before the Wood.
KY_horseman:	Q: Is Bellamy Road due for a letdown? DId you read Andy Beyer's article looking at the historical Derby winner preperation, which ruled out 5 of the top 7 favorties?
Steven_Crist:	Well, I'm pretty sure Andy's picking Bellamy Road so I don;t think he's saying it's impossible. These "rules" are going to start tumbling because horses are being trained so differently.
Tony2k:	Q: Isn't Greater Good kind of a forgotten horse? Know his figs are awesome, but he sure can close.
Steven_Crist:	He's just very slow, and the horses he ran down in his big closing victories have gone on to do....nothing.
prizboy:	Q: Steve, No one is talking about Afleet Alex. Do you think that his price will slip behind Bandini, especially conisdering the connections?
Steven_Crist:	I disagree. A lot of people like Afleet Alex, not only because he's good and a very legit second choice but he's a good story.
scott:	Q: Steve, High Fly seems low at 8-1 M/L; last 2 races with 13+ last 1/8th plus the, supposedly, problematic 5 week layoff? What's your value line for him? Thanks
Steven_Crist:	I would want double that 8-1. He's a nice horse with a nice record but I have serious questions about him at the distance.
Chuck:	Q: In the past when you have written about comparing final 1/8 and 3/8 times in 1 1/8 preps, you have not included those races from Oakland Park because you did not think the times were accurate. Is that still true?
Steven_Crist:	Yes. Ever since Althea supposedly ran her last eighth in 11 winning the Arkansas Derby, I've been skeptical about the timing from the eighth pole to the wire down there. It seems someone runs a sub-12 every single year.
edlewb:	Q: Do you think Flower Alley has a chance to win?
Steven_Crist:	No. He got beat eight lengths by Afleet Alex with absolutely no excuse.
rockhard10:	Q: What kind of success have you had over the years in the derby?
Steven_Crist:	Not a lot. If the Derby were the sixth race on a Thursday, most rational horseplayers would turn the page and pass. There are way too many variables and a 20-horse field almost ensures trouble and chaos.
jasper:	Q: Does the slow track at Keeneland that week make Bandini's time look better or worse
Steven_Crist:	The speed of the track is factored into a speed figure. He got a 103. He'll have to improve.
TonyTonto:	Q: in speaking of the rules - no horse in the last 12 years has won the Derby off two preps and none of the winners started later than 2/16 - it seems like the rules have held up - why do you suggest that they will now tumble - what makes this year different
Steven_Crist:	What's different is that in the past, horses outside all these Rule Parameters were a distinct minority. Now more and more it's becoming the norm.
Dutch:	Q: Steven - I asked about Greeley's Galaxy. Did you get the question? I've seen some figures that put him ahead of Afleet Alex and Just behind Bellamy road. What's your opinion of G. Galaxy?
Steven_Crist:	He's a likelier winner than half the field. He hasn't done a lot wrong and he does have one fast race. I wouldn't be shocked
Phileboy:	Q: There's been quite a bit written about how Noble Causway will relish the distance, but it seemed to me that he "hung" a bit in his last race when he lost to High Fly? Is that observation at all significant?
Steven_Crist:	Yes it is, because High Fly didn't finish that strongly. Also, Bailey said he geared down High Fly late to save something.
Legendary_Pink:	Q: Steve, I think Sun King is going to run a new top, somewhere around 110 / 111 and win the Derby on Saturday. Do you think it's far fetched?
Steven_Crist:	No, which is why he's my third choice and why I'll bet a little on him at 15-1. Remember, Zito said all spring that Sun King was the "captain" of his 3-year-old team. Also, Prado chose Sun King over Noble Causeway, for whatever that's worth.
jdhjthtn:	Q: Who do you see challenging Spanish Chestnut for the early lead since Bellamy Road will try to sit back a bit off the pace?
Steven_Crist:	Going Wild and High Limit.
HORSEPLAYER944:	Q: What does the Churchill ground crew do to the track on Derby morning?
Steven_Crist:	They pour 100 tons of quick-dry cement over the track.
marialuisa:	Q: Do you believe a horse has to have a triple digit beyer to be compete in the Derby?
Steven_Crist:	Grindstone didn't but everyone else I can think of in the last 15-20 years did. It's a pretty powerful indicator of raw ability
dan_vegas:	Q: Buzzard's Bay may be sitting on a big one why no love for the Santa Anita winner? That race seems to have lost favor recently.
Steven_Crist:	Considering how Buddy Gil and Castledale ran, after winning faster SA Derbies, I'm not surprised it's lost favor.
DERBYT:	Q: HI "Mr Seabrooke" I wanted to ask if you know if nyra and otb will have a co mingle derby pool or serperate pools.....actually i think it should be a national pool but i don't think thats the case is it ?
Steven_Crist:	Yes, that is the case. It's a commingled national pool that NYRA and OTB bet into.
Kitan:	Q: Word is is that High Limit has had his wolf teeth removed. How much should this help him for the Derby?
Steven_Crist:	Wolf teeth. You learn something new every day in this game. I don't half any wolf-teeth ROI stats.
mudcaulks:	Q: Spectacular Bid was the best overall horse that I have seen other than Secretariat. What do you think about the Bid and how he would handle Saturdays field
Steven_Crist:	He would thrash everyone...except the Bellamy Road we saw in the Wood. That to me is the most exciting thing about this Derby: Maybe Bellamy Road is one of the ones.
fever77:	Q: In War Emblems year, they ran 1-2-3 wire to wire, could that happen this year?
Steven_Crist:	No, because the horses likely to be 1-2-3 early -- Spanish Chestnut, Goin Wild and High Limit -- look very, very, very unlikely to be around at the end.
magicman:	Q: i missed half of the chat....what are Steve's top 4 picks?
Steven_Crist:	Bellamy Road, Afleet Alex, Sun King, Wilko, Greeley's Galaxy
superay:	Q: Steve, I unloaded on hansel in the preakness with you. Great call. What about Afleet Alex? Doesn't he have all the tools and prep?
Steven_Crist:	He does and I'll be perfectly happy if he wins. he's a very likeable and admirable horse, and I think it would be good for racing if a classically-trained horse -- one who comes out early, runs in races like the Hopeful -- goes on to win a Derby.
the_sal_f:	Q: ??? is a repeat of a 120 beyer unlikely ???
Steven_Crist:	It's unlikely because it's very tough for any 3-year-old to run a figure like that at amile and a quarter. But he doesn't need to run another 120 to win.
Schmenge:	Q: If Bellamy can't rate, everyone else looks, frankly, suspect. It seems plausible a total longshot could win with a relatively slow speed figure. Possible?.
Steven_Crist:	Anything is possible, but it's unlikely. Afleet Alex is solid and legit and is supposed to beat the rest of them. And horses who come into the Derby with consistently slow figures just don't win the race. The winning longshots have had figs. As Damon Runyon said, "The race may not always go to the swift, but that's how to bet it."
Steven_Crist:	And on that note, thank you all for coming. Good luck!
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