reb:	Q: is this the most wide open field you have handicapped?
ANDY_BEYER:	Not at all. I think there are a lot of horses who are badly overmatched--figurewise at least. Half of the field hasn't recorded a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures. Those horses almost never win.
Teag:	Q: Andy-- is Rose a liability aboard Afleet Alex? The horse is in top shape, but seems destined for trouble...
ANDY_BEYER:	An inexperienced jockey on a horse who has to come from far behind is not what you want. Rose certainly didnt distinguish himself in the Breeders' Cup. I think the owners and trainer would probably have replaced him if a big star had been available.
Bucko:	Q: What's Up with High Fly, sort of looked over, can he get on the pace & then close???
ANDY_BEYER:	Visually, I thought he was very good and professional winning the Florida Derby, chasing that fast pace and holding on. He's got the right style. But his weak speed figures are something I can't get past.
the_pope:	Q: Andy--Do you think that Bobby Frankel used the Blue Grass as a prep for High Limit, considering he has never won The Derby ? What do you think his chances are ?
ANDY_BEYER:	I hate High Limit. He's my number one throwout--not so much on the basis of the Blue Grass but because I think the Louisiana Derby was a phony race. He and Vicarage ran 1-2 around the track against a field without much speed; everybody has come out of that race to run lousy. Besides, he's a speed horse in a Derby filled with other and better speed horses. NO SHOT!
Snowman:	Q: Is dosage outdated?
ANDY_BEYER:	It's not outdated. It was always a useless concept, and in the last few years everybody has realized that it was useless. But something has also changed in the Derby, with the wins by sprint-oriented sires three years in a row; pedigree just isn't as important as it has historically been in the Derby.
bellsbendboy:	Q: Andy Noble Causway has improved his Beyers every start and would appear to relish 10 furlongs what do you make of his chances and his odds?
ANDY_BEYER:	I supposed you could make the case that he's an improving, and he definitely has the stretch-running style that will help him in this race. I don't think he's good enough but he is the type who can clunk up and get into the superfecta in a fast-pace race..
ninetoone:	Q: Is Spanish Chestnut this year's "Songandaprayer"??
ANDY_BEYER:	Probably. He'll show speed and collapse. I can't imagine why Tabor and Biacone would waste him in this race. He's got enough speed to be a productive horse in the right spots.
smartywasnoparty:	Q: Hey andy, do you think Bellamy road 120 beyer was legit...and if it was barring a bad trip the derby should be a foregone conclusion...like ghostzapper in the classic
ANDY_BEYER:	A lot of people have asked about the legitimacy of the fig, and we of course took a hard look at it. It was ambiguous in the sense that there was only one 1 1/8-mile race on the Aqueduct card. Nevertheless, while he ran his big race, none of the horses behind him improved on any of their recent figures, and you'd expect them to do so in a big race for which all the trainers have been pointing. So I would say, if the figure is at all off, it is off by being too low.
xmhp3777:	Q: Do you think Bellamy Road can stalk?
ANDY_BEYER:	The way the race is shaping up, he'll have to. There's no way he's going to outrun Spanish Chestnut and some of the others. People who have watched him train say he doesn't look like a headstrong speed type, but I guess we'll only know for sure in the Derby itself. This is the big issue for Bellamy Road--and for the whole race.
Hcabdlog:	Q: The Big A was so speed bias on the day of the Wood, I could have ran a quarter in 23 seconds. Is Bellamy Road going to show up Sat?
ANDY_BEYER:	The track was super-fast, but being fast doesn't necessarily make it speed-biased. I think the race was completely legit.
omar:	Q: Can Wilko win at this level at this distance?
ANDY_BEYER:	If you're a class-oriented handicapper, you'd say he'd already won at this level in the Breeders' Cup. He's got a solid pedigree for the distance and the right style. I gather he's had some problems this spring and is now training better. But I can't get past the fact that he's never run a triple-digit speed figure.
ashley:	Q: Hi Andy--What do you think of Bandini's chances in the Derby?
ANDY_BEYER:	When I watched the Blue Grass I thought--as most people surely did--that it looked like an impressive race. But when you analyze it closely it wasn't. The race was loaded with front-running types, and Bandini was able to stalk them. When the leaders collapsed, he went past, but the final eighth of a mile was run in 13 2/5 seconds, so he wasn't exactly flying.
nutty:	Q: How much do you think Bellamy Road will regress from his 120 Beyer or do you?
ANDY_BEYER:	I doubt that he'll run a 120 again on Saturday, but I am not concerned about a "bounce" that will cause his defeat. The weeks before the Derby are a time when 3-year-olds can come to life suddenly and run raises as they've never done before. Just because they've made a new "top" doesn't mean they're going to bounce. Often they've just found themselves as athletes and they keep on going. It happened with War Emblem. It happened with Charismatic. Going back a few years, it happened with Pleasant Colony.
bayside:	Q: Despite the lousy effort by Prado and Sun King in the Bluegrass do you like the horse to hit the board?
ANDY_BEYER:	Sun King is an interesting longshot on a number of grounds. He's got the proper profile for the Derby--a solid foundation at 2 and 3 prep races this year. He can finish. He's got Zito. And his disappointing effort in the Blue Grass could be part of the long tradition of horses running lousy in the Blue Grass and then coming to Churchill and running big.
Grumpy:	Q: Andy, I read in an on line Blog that, historically, if you total each Derby Contender's last three Beyer figures, you will find the Superfecta horses within the top six totals. Do you lend any credence to this theory?
ANDY_BEYER:	I've never believed in adding a sequence of speed figures together, but I guess I'm willing to listen to any crackpot theory.
Red:	Q: Will you be using Greeleys Galaxy?
ANDY_BEYER:	Despite his solid Illinois Derby number, no. I still put a lot of stock in the lessons of history about the overall preparation a horse needs, and Greeley's Galaxy has two strikes against him: he didn't start as a 2-year-old, and he has only 4 career starts. Moreover, he had a fairly soft trip beating a weak field in Illinois.
coachercatt:	Q: much is being written about drugs and the care authorities are taking this year. Do you believe the drug "problem" is severe?
ANDY_BEYER:	If you've been watching races for the last few years, you should have been able to deduce that the drug problem is beyond severe; it's out of control and it's ruining the game. Every track iln the country now has miracle-working trainers who can claim or buy a horse and move him up 20 points overnight. Trainers have become the most important single factor in the game.
Ballsey:	Q: Why would Baffert enter a "no possible chance" horse like Sort It Out and keep a possible contender (like Hughes' other whorse whose name I can't remember now) out of the race. I know he's an egotist and that must be the reason - he needs the attention.
ANDY_BEYER:	Well, that other horse did get in the race, so Baffert's not keep out a worthy contender. Obviously, once a trainer gets the Derby bug, he wants to be in the game every year. At least Sort It Out just ran second in a Grade 2 stakes, the Lexington, and he can finish. His presence is a lot more justifiable than the Lukas entrant, Going Wild.
Mr_Milkshakes:	Q: Is Derby the most difficult race to handicap each year???
ANDY_BEYER:	Yes, because it's unlike any other race. You're always faced with a big unknown: which of the horses will be suited to 1 1/4 miles? And the 20-horse field creates wild and extreme pace scenarios that frequently turn out to be more important than the ability of the respective horses.
Doug_R:	Q: How important are all these "historical" trends when handicapping this years race. The "three 2005 races" rule seems to take out some pretty big hitters, as does the "4 week" rule.
ANDY_BEYER:	That was the subject of my column in the DRF. I believe in these trends, which all emphasize the importance of experience and proper conditioning in the Derby. The race is so stressful that horses need a solid foundation to be ready for it. But with so many horses coming into this year's race with such light preparation, it seems like that somebody is going to beat one of the trends--unless Afleet Alex, Sun King or Wilko win it.
catthief:	Q: Andy, who are some of your other throwouts?
ANDY_BEYER:	As I said earlier, I am strongly against High Limit. And I am against just about any horse who hasn't managed to earn a figure of 100 by this stage of his career (though I might relent slightly in the case of Wilko).
dabomb_2:	Q: I see alot of people talking about Andromeda's Hero, What are his chances?
ANDY_BEYER:	You're the only person talking about Andromeda's Hero. He has no chance whatsoever.
pzman:	Q: Is there any hope for Pimlico and Maryland racing?
ANDY_BEYER:	The situation looks pretty grim. Since there now appears no chance for slots, and the state is going to be surrounded by tracks that have big slot-fueled purses, Maryland is going to keep going downhill. Pimlico, however, can't go much farther downhill since it's already such a depressing dump.
gator:	Q: Andy, Get it done. Make some prediction on the Derby instead of all this bullshit.
ANDY_BEYER:	I think Bellamy Road is going to confirm the legitimacy of that 120 figure, that he has going to deliver an overpowering performance, and that by Saturday night he will be hailed as the sport's new superstar.
kingsago:	Q: Hey Andy help us fill out the tri's and super .....Gulfstream shippers?
ANDY_BEYER:	I would be against any of the speed horses who are going to be vying with Bellamy Road, and would emphasize horses who can finish. You can't knock Afleet Alex. Sun King has a shot. I'd be looking at the clunker-uppers like Noble Causeway or Wilko rather than more highly regarded speed types like Bandini and High Lmit.
illini82:	Q: why are the California horses getting no respect?
ANDY_BEYER:	Because they stink. A winning figure of 98 in the Santa Anita Derby is pretty pitiful.
acres:	Q: Doesn't "Alex" appear to have the stalking style and competitive stretch figures to be the key horse?
ANDY_BEYER:	Alex is good, and in another year he'd be the one to beat. But he's running into a monster this year, I think. My whole analysis will be in Saturday's DRF. Thanks, everybody, for joining me. Have a great and profitable Derby day.
DRF_WebGrp:	Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Kentucky Derby 131!
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DRF_WebGrp:	In the words of our good friend Stanley Bergstein, good night all.