| Derby lesson: Read the Footnotes
By NOEL MICHAELS
KENTUCKY DERBY, Saturday, May 1
After weeks and months of reading about it, talking about it, and waiting for it, the Kentucky Derby is finally here. This year's Derby should be one of the most wide-open renewals in recent memory, with few, if any, toss-outs in the evenly-matched 20-horse field.
Dozens of prep races are now in the rear-view, but those races have not done much to thin the ranks of contenders, nor have they been able to establish a legitimate favorite. Smarty Jones and The Cliff's Edge should go off favored somewhere in the range of 5-1 to 6-1, but even at those odds the favorites seem like bad bets in this, or any other Kentucky Derby. The favorite has lost 23 out of the last 24 Derbies, and this race looks like absolutely the last place you'd want to try and buck that trend. Derby 130 this Saturday will be a total toss-up, so why not take a shot and try to beat the favorites. There will be plenty of good betting options in the field, and many prime contenders should be going off at odds of over 10-1, or even 15-1.
Best of luck on Derby Day, and don't forget to have some fun. For racing fans, this day is supposed to be what it's all about.
Kentucky Derby - G1
Churchill Downs - Race 10
1 1/4 miles, purse: $1,000,000
1) 14-Read the Footnotes
2) 8-Master David
3) 3-Lion Heart
4) 16-Castledale
Of all the races run by all the 3-year-olds at all the tracks so far this year, the winning effort by Read the Footnotes in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park way back on Feb. 14 still ranks at the top of the list. His gameness, will to win, and Beyer speed figure of 113 for that race have yet to be matched by any other horse in the Derby field this spring, and it's questionable whether any other horse besides Read the Footnotes is even capable of repeating an effort that good on Saturday. Since the Fountain of Youth, Read the Footnotes has run only once, and that was only a fourth-place effort in the Florida Derby seven weeks ago. Hence, Read the Footnotes will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 15-1 instead of 5-1 in the Derby, and that's supposed to be a good thing for bettors, not a bad thing, right?
When Read the Footnotes won the Fountain of Youth he was running his first start off a layoff, and he clearly proved in that race he could run his best effort when fresh. After that career-best effort, Read the Footnotes did what every handicapper and their grandmother thought he'd do, he bounced in the Florida Derby with a sub-par effort. I, for one, won't fault him for doing something I expected of him, especially when so many horses including him didn't handle Gulfstream's dry and sandy track on Florida Derby Day. Other Florida derby also-rans including Tapit and The Cliff's Edge came out of that race to run career bests in their next starts. I expect the same from Read the Footnotes, except instead of doing it in the Wood Memorial or the Blue Grass like those rivals, he'll be ready to do it on the first Saturday in May in the Kentucky Derby.
Given this year's 20-horse Kentucky Derby field, trips and pace very well could make all the difference in the race. It seems logical that you'd want a horse who can be within striking distance of the leaders, but not too far back in the pack with 12 or 15 horses to pass en route to victory. Read the Footnotes should be in a perfect spot, as should Master David who is likely to sit close to the pace in the second flight of horses down the backstretch.
Master David will round out my Derby exacta boxes. He should be in the neighborhood of 10-1 to 12-1 odds on Saturday, a rarity for any Bobby Frankel trainee. Master David displayed his quality with a runner-up finish behind Read the Footnotes in last fall's Remsen Stakes, and again when he won the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita in February over Borrego, Preachinatthebar, and Action This Day. Since then, Frankel gave Master David most of the winter off and brought him back with a good second-place effort in the Wood Memorial when the horse clearly wasn't fully cranked-up in his first race off a two-month layoff. Master David is now prepped and ready for his career best effort, and Frankel will obviously have all the screws tightened on Saturday.
The best and most talented horse in the Derby may be Lion Heart, but we all know that the best horse doesn't always win the Derby for a variety of reasons. Like Smarty Jones, Lion Heart is a fierce competitor who will try his guts out each and every time he runs. He'll be difficult to restrain on the pace, and probably will try too hard and run too fast early to be able to hold on and win at 1 1/4 miles. It is also my belief that with similar running styles and a similar will to win, Lion Heart and Smarty Jones will be detrimental to each other's chances. Lion Heart will need a super-phenomenal effort similar to that of Peace Rules last year in order to stick around for an in-the-money placing in the Derby. But if he's as good as I think he is, that could be distinct possibility.
It's rare that you'll see the winner of a race like the Santa Anita Derby go off at odds near 15-1 in the Kentucky Derby, but that should be the case this year with Castledale, who cannot be overlooked this year despite his odds. He may have the right running style, and should be able to run all day, which could be key if some of his top competition tires in the quarter mile come Saturday. Besides, if the winner of the Santa Anita Derby wins the Kentucky Derby and pays $30, you'll be kicking yourself after the race that you didn't have at least $2 on him to win.
Of all the horses that I've excluded from my bets, the ones I'm most afraid of are Tapit and The Cliff's Edge. I like both of these horses a lot, but I think their running style from so far off the pace in a 20-horse field will hurt both of their chances. Both will also be amongst the favorites. Tapit, who trains on Michael Dickinson's quiet farm, seemed bewildered by the crowd of 17,000 at Aqueduct on Wood Memorial Day. My gut feeling is that this immensely talented horse won't handle the crowd and atmosphere at Churchill Downs on Derby Day.
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