| STEVEN_CRIST: | welcome all |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Welcome everyone! You may begin submitting your questions for Steven Crist at any time. |
| REDSWORDTAIL: | Q: What do you think about the Dual Qualifier theory? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I think it was a lot more important 10 years ago..... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Before everyone begn training like a European.... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | and not running their horses as much as 2-year-olds.... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | or even as 3-year-olds for that matter.... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | 25 years ago, horses like Sunday Silence and Fu Peg would have run earlier as 2-year-olds..... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | and been on the Experimental and thus Dual Qualifiers. |
| KIRISCLOWN2: | Q: Steve, if the track comes up wet... who do you think will benefit most? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | That's really hard to say..... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Because a wet Churchill track can be either speed-favoring if sloppy.... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | or closer-favoring if muddy.... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | It seeems that every year we worry about a wet track.... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | but they always have it pretty dry by post time. |
| BACKSTRETCH2: | Q: whats your thoughts about Pollards Vision? his beyer improved dramitically in his last do you give him a chance and why? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I know big Illinois Derby figs have held up the last two years.... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | with War Emblem and Ten Most Wanted proving legit.... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | but I really think Pollard's Vision got a free ride walking to the lead this year. |
| REDSWORDTAIL: | Q: Do you think Samrty Jones is for real (or is he over his head with these)? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | He's obviously a talented horse but I really have to against him until he does something against better horses than the ones he's been facing. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I also have real doubts about his getting the mile and a quarter.... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | He was shortening up late in the Arkansas Derby and I'm not convinced that Borrego and Pro Prado are killers. |
| BACKSTRETCH2_2: | Q: Welcome Steve,what do you think of the Wodd memorial the buyers came back awfully low,in recebt years the derby winner has had atleast a buyer of 100 or higher should these horses from the wood be tossed out of the win "SLOT" ? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I think it would be dangerous to toss the Wood horses.... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | because I'm not convinced the 98 couldn't have been a 103.... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | The wood was one of only two routes on the entire card.... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | with the other one being a 1 5/16-mile claiming race three hours earlier. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | The sprints were very fast but there's not enough evidence to apply the same severe variant to the routes. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Also, even if the fig was a little light, |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | the first two finishers both were, according to their trainers, under 100 percent. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I expect both Tapit and Master david to move forward off that race. |
| JKBHAT: | Q: How do you feel about the two horses coming off layoffs from the fla Derby? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | That's one of the real riddles of this Kentucky Derby. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | History seems to tell us that this is not the way to go. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | It doesn't seem to work for 1 1/4-mile dirt races in general. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | A lot of guys have tried the long layoff into the BC Classic and it doesn't work there either. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Look at Medaglia, came Home and War Emblem two years ago. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | You would think it's even tougher for 3-year-olds in May. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | It really pains me because I want to love Read The Footnotes but the seven weeks makes me very nervous. |
| KIRISCLOWN2: | Q: Steve, how do you rate the chances of LIMEHOUSE? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | He's a very tough and likeable little horse, |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | but he may have problems with the distance. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | At a huge price I could use him underneath though. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | He did get away from the rider early in the Blue Grass and |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | is probably better rated from off the pace. |
| MAXX128: | Q: The obvious wuestion....who do ya like? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I agonized over four horses.... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | and ended up putting them in the following order: |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Tapit |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Read The Footnotes |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Master David |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | The Cliff's Edge |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | And my bomb is Birdstone at 50-1 on the morning line.
|
| 49VOYAGER: | Q: Steven, do you put much faith in dosage figures? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | None. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | After Strike the Gold, Real Quiet and Charismatic, does anyone? |
| PHILADELPHI5: | Q: What about the PP draw anyone benefit or suffer greatly based on their running style? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I think the post draw is always an overrated factor. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | You have to work out a trip in a big field and get a little lucky wherever you draw. |
| BACKSTRETCH2: | Q: What are your thoughts about alot of horses in this years derby only having two preps.do you think any of them have a chance? and if so who? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Well, four of my five horses are coming in off two preps -- |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Tapit, Read The Footnotes and Birdstone |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | (I guess that's only 3 of 5).... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | This is one of those "rules" that is going to be broken, perhaps as soon as Saturday... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | simply because people have changed the way they train. |
| KIRISCLOWN2: | Q: Steve, which of the derby preps... impressed you the least? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | It didn't get the lowest figure, but to me |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | the Santa Anita Derby was the least impressive. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Twop of the favorites didn't run a lick, |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | and the best 3yo in California ran in the Blue Grass. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Timewise I think the figure was generous if anything because Dynever ran 7 lengths faster two races later. |
| REDSWORDTAIL: | Q: Do you put more stock into "bred for distance" horses such as Action This Day and Quinton`s Gold Rush? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I'm not convinced QGR is all that longwinded. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Of course you'd rather see Unbridled and AP Indy in the pedigree than Carson City but at this point these horses have shown as racehorses |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | whether they're likely to get the 10th furlong or not. |
| MARKGWIN: | Q: Steve, Any chance Smarty and Lion Heart runaway from the field and can`t be caught? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | If those two hook up I can'tt imagine they're going to finish very strongly. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Smarty has never faced intense pace pressure and to ask him to do that for the first time AND negotiate 10 furlongs seems like aski |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | asking a lot. |
| TURF2DIRT: | Q: Can The Cliff`s Edge Replicate his Bluegrass form in the Derby after a 21 point Beyer Speed Figure jump? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | That's a good question. I'm not a big believer in "bounces".... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | There's often another and more pertinent explanation for why a horse doesn't repeat a big figure... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | but it's curious that the whole world |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | seemed to "know" that Read The Footnotes was going to bounce off his Fountain of Yoouth, |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | which was only an 8-point improvement off his Remsen, |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | but nobody's predicting that TCE will bounce to the moon. |
| KIRISCLOWN2: | Q: Steve, what are your thoughts on Wimbledon? Did Bailey make a wise choice? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I prefer Read The Footnotes so I hope Jerry made the |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | wrong choice. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Wimbledon will run a lot better than he did in the SA Derby. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | That was clearly not a representative race. |
| BACKSTRETCH2: | Q: Whic h horse(s) loked most impressive in their workouts at churchhill downs the past two weeks? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | You're asking the wrong guy. I think these Derby workouts are incredibly overrated and misleading unless you know the life history of these horses and how they usually work. |
| ARMKEY: | Q: minister eric closed fast from the 1/2 in last. do you forsee further improve sat.? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I don;t know that he's a legitimate Grade 1 horse or not. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | All he's ever done is run second in the worst BC Juvenile in history and win an allowance race. |
| PHILADELPHI5: | Q: How do you factor TCE`s liking for the Churchill course....should it matter? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | It can't hurt but it's not necessarily a positive. It just eliminates one possible excuse. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | If he runs terrible, you can't say, gee maybe he hates the ractrack. |
| PATTOM: | Q: Did it appear to you that Lion Heart was coming back at TCE past the wire, that after running an extra 50` on the turns? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I don't know about 50 feet but LH did not get a Hall of Fame ride that day from Mike Smith.... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Instead of clearing he somehow ends up three-wide on the first turn. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Lion Heart is a really nice horse. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I just don't know about a mile and a quarter. |
| MARKGWIN: | Q: Borrego closed very well his last out - At 20/1 are you including him as a horse with a chance. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I'm not convinced he closed all that well as opposed to Smarty getting a little late. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I think Borrego is going to be a massive underlay Saturday. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I can't take a horse who can't win a race. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | He couldn't beat Master david, |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | he couldn't beat Wimbledon, |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | he couldn't beat Smarty. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Now you want him to beat all three plus 16 others??? |
| STEVIETHEWIZ: | Q: with all the reasons not to bet a horse, off a long layoff, no wins at two, not a dual dosage horse ect. what is your strongest reason to not bet a horse in this derby |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I think the biggest mistake people make amid the confusion of handicapping the Derby |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | is to bet on second-rate horses -- |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | chronic losers, suck-ups, horses with no real credentials. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | The best reason not to be a horse is because you don't believe he's good enough. |
| BACKSTRETCH2: | Q: Friends Lake by A.P. Indy beat the top 2 probable choices in the Fl. derby do you give him a shot? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I'm not a fan of his yet.... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I think the Florida Derby fell into his lap. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Value Plus didn't want to go that far, |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | TCE had trouble, |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Read The Footnotes didn't run his race, |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | and Tapit was sick and making his season debut. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Nothing else Friends Lake has ever done makes me think he's a contender in this race. |
| BSHOCK: | Q: What kind of pace do you see setting up, 46 range for the 1/2? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | There's not a bunch of cheap crazy speed the way there was in the Monarchos Derby. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Lion Heart should make the lead from the inside and the fractions won't be nuts. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I think you'll see a lot of stalkers moving at the same time and |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | bunching into the turn and then we'll have a rodeo and see which closers get through. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | One reason I like Master David is that I think he has enough tactical speed to sit a good trip behind the speed and he can finish a little too. |
| KIRISCLOWN2: | Q: Steve, what do you think of Master David? Was the Wood enough to get him ready for the big dance? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I think it was enough. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | It was his first start in nine weeks, which is worth remembering. I think he'll improve off the race. His trainer's been known to have them ready for big races. |
| STEVIETHEWIZ: | Q: could the fact that action this day had a bad back really explain his last two races ? and is he better now ? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Maybe he's "better" now, but how good was he to begin with? I have a very low opinion of his BC Juvenile. |
| KIRISCLOWN2: | Q: Steve, how do you feel about the way the derby field is chosen? Is it right that horses like Eddington and Rock Hard Ten get excluded? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I have no problem with the current system. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I would not want to see a panel making subjective judgments. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | You have to do that in the Breeders' Cup because of the european horses. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | This is different. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I don't see the great tragedy of a horse whose only stakes races are thirds in the Gotham and Wood being excluded. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | He had plenty of chances to run in other stakes races. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Are we going to start putting horses in and out of the Derby because of their speed figures? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | The earnings system is the fairest thing.
|
| BSHOCK: | Q: how much should be read into Bailey (or his agent) choosing Wimbledon? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | How much should you read into the fact that the guy sitting next to you at the track has a |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | different opinion from yours? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | He made a "safe" decision |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | to go with a Baffert-trained closer over a speed horse off a seven-week layoff. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | It's not an unreasonable choice but he doesn't have to be right. |
| PATTOM: | Q: I know it`s not a derby question but I would like to get your opinion. How do you compare these turn around artists such as Frankel, Baffert, Mullins etc. with a master of his craft such as Alan Jerkens or, in years past, Mac Miller with regard to getting |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | The game has changed. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | You don't have any Rokeby Stables left where you can take as long as you want |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | and not worry about making the Triple Crown. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | The good bloodstock these days goes to public buyers who |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | for the most part want a quick return on investment and want to see their names in the paper every year for the Derby. |
| STEVIETHEWIZ: | Q: Steve, will you be wearing any ad`s on your pants Saturday ? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Just my usual DRF codpiece. |
| JOANNA10009_2: | Q: How many horses do you see as true "contenders", meaning you think they have greater than 5% chance of winning. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Interesting question.... |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | If you do the math, probably half the field is over 5 percent and half is under. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | The more relevant question is, horse by horse, whose chances exceed their odds? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Is Smarty Jones better than 17 percent to win the race? I don't think so but that's what you're getting if you take 5-1. |
| DLAROWE14: | Q: is 4-1 too low on the morning line odds of the cliff`s edge? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I think it's a pretty good number. Mike Watchmaker's line has him the 5-1 fave and he might be closer to that but it's not way out of line. Remember, the morning line is a prediction of how the public will bet, not an assessment of a horse's actual chances. |
| PATTOM: | Q: What are the chances of a "souped up" surface on derby day and has there been any pronounced bias at the CD meet so far? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | That depends on the weather but that surface is almost always souped up. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I've found that following the "bias" in the days leading up to the Derby |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | is an exercise in futility because the track usually changes on Derby Day. |
| DLAROWE14: | Q: Steve, is there a legitimate triple crown horse in this crop of 3 yr olds? if so...who? |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I think probably not, because none of these horses has done what I want to see in our next Triple Crown winner: |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Run fast at 2, triumph over adversity, run consistently fast, look like a real killer. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | Having said that, whoever wins Saturday is the favorite to win the Preakness and then here we go again. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | I will say that I have rooted against every horse who has gone for it since Spectacular Bid because I didn't think they were worthy |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | and I'd be surprised if I'm singing a different tune this year. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | But is someone wins by eight lengths in 1:59 1/5, maybe. |
| STEVEN_CRIST: | On that note, thank you all for coming and have a fun and lucrative Derby!
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| DRF_WebGrp: | We apologize to those who had difficulty getting in to the chat tonight. We will look into this issue with our community provider and have it resolved prior to tomorrow night's chat. |
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| DRF_WebGrp: | Be sure to join us Friday evening from 6:30-7:30 pm Eastern for a chat with Andy Beyer. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Kentucky Derby 130! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | In the words of the great Stanley Bergstein, good night all. |
