The most intriguing challenger in the Kentucky Derby is Ten Most Wanted, a horse who seems ready to peak at the right time and should have no problem being successful at the Derby's 1 1/4-mile distance. Ten Most Wanted won the Illinois Derby by four lengths and looked impressive doing it - earning a 110 Beyer speed figure and cruising home the final furlong in a good 13 seconds. Admittedly, Ten Most Wanted would be far more attractive at higher odds, but he looks too good to pass up even as the 4-1 second-choice. He has worked well twice over the Churchill Downs track, and has solid human connections in his favor with trainer Wally Dollase calling the shots and jockey Pat Day in the irons looking for his second Derby win.

Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has proven time and time again that he is not to be ignored in Triple Crown races, even with longshots. That is part of the appeal of his top Derby entrant this year, Scrimshaw. Scrimshaw had a minor throat operation to correct a breathing problem after losing the Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream in mid-February, and then promptly responded by springing to life and winning the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland two weeks ago with a much improved effort. Lukas has a great recent history of using the Lexington as a stepping stone to Kentucky Derby success. His Charasmatic won the Derby at 31-1 after winning the Lexington in 1999, and he nearly repeated the feat last year when his Lexington winner Proud Citizen finished second at 23-1 odds.

One horse who may be overlooked despite a very solid spring is Brancusi, who turned in good efforts in defeat in both the San Felipe and Blue Grass Stakes. Brancusi lost to three of his rivals in this race - Peace Rules, Atswhatimtalknbout, and Buddy Gil - in his last two races, but could turn the tables on those runners at the Derby's extended distance. He chased Peace Rules and couldn't catch him in the Blue Grass on a Keeneland track surface where it almost impossible to gain ground in the stretch. The track is likely to be dramatically different at Churchill Downs. Also, unlike any of the horses who've beaten him recently, Brancusi will be a big overlay at double or triple the odds of Peace Rules, Atswhatimtalknbout, and Buddy Gil. That makes him a good value play on Saturday.

Empire Maker could be the real deal based on back-to-back wins in the Florida Derby and Wood Memorial, where he earned a 111 Beyer despite not extending himself and being allowed to play around and toy with Funny Cide in the stretch. However, Empire Maker will be a short-priced favorite in the Kentucky Derby, and must overcome a bruised foot that acted up on him during the week. Empire Maker won the Wood with "gas left in the tank," but perhaps could have benefitted from a tougher effort in that race and might have been taught the wrong lesson when not kept to his business in the Aqueduct stretch.

Other legitimate Kentucky Derby contenders include Santa Anita Derby winner Buddy Gil, who has won three in a row and is as game as they come, Funny Cide, who lost to Empire Maker by just a half-length after contesting the pace in the Wood Memorial, and Bob Baffert's Santa Anita Derby runner-up Indian Express.

Horses that figure to be underlays offering little value in the Kentucky Derby include Atswhatimtalknbout, Peace Rules, and Offlee Wild. Atswhatimtalknbout revealed himself to be a one-run plodder when fourth despite a perfect pace set-up in the SA Derby. He is still a green horse who will need an absolutely perfect trip through a 16-horse field in order to have a chance to hit the board in the Derby. Peace Rules crawled home the final three furlongs in the Blue Grass, and is sired by Jules, which means the Derby's 1 1/4 miles will be a big, big stretch. Offlee Wild seems to have peaked in January in the Holy Bull Stakes, but that race took so much out of him that he's run two poor efforts ever since.

The remainder of the field including Supah Blitz, Lone Star Sky, Domestic Dispute, Eye Of The Tiger, Ten Cents A Shine, and Outta Here all appear to be overmatched.

SELECTIONS:

129th Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs, Saturday 5/3 - Race 10
Purse: $1,000,000 added, Distance: 1 1/4 miles
1) 16-Ten Most Wanted
2) 17-Scrimshaw
3) 2-Brancusi
4) 12-Empire Maker

$100 PLAY

Try to beat Empire Maker, but don't ignore him entirely if you're playing exotics. Key 16-Ten Most Wanted in trifectas over 17-Scrimshaw, 2-Brancusi, and 12-Empire Maker, with those three plus 8-Buddy Gil, 6-Funny Cide, and 9-Indian Express in the third slot (that's a 1x3x6 tri ticket. Box Ten Most Wanted, Scrimshaw, Brancusi, and Empire Maker in exactas, and play Ten Most Wanted, Scrimshaw, and Brancusi to win.

$1 trifecta: 16 / 2,12,17 / 2,6,8,9,12,17 = $15
$5 exacta box: 2,12,16,17 = $60
$5 to win: 2-Brancusi and 17-Scrimshaw = $10
$15 to win 16-Ten Most Wanted - $15

Unfortunately, this is where it gets tricky, because this same 105-plus Beyer group not only produced a preponderance of bouncers, it also produced seven of the last 11 winners. In the 110-plus group, for example, nearly everyone bounced in the Derby. But that group has also produced three winners: Silver Charm, Fusaichi Pegasus, and War Emblem. (Will Empire Maker be the fourth?) From the larger 105-109 group, four winners have emerged: Lil E. Tee, Real Quiet, Charismatic, and Go For Gin. How can you separate the bouncers from the winners? There's just no simple, foolproof, reliable way to do this based on familiar Beyer patterns.

But there is one constant in all the recent high-Beyer winners in the Derby, and in most of the other winners, as well. Before the Derby, all these runners demonstrated that they could handle the average winning Derby figure of 108-110 - either by actually recording a Beyer figure in that range, or by earning a somewhat lower Beyer but with a very tough trip (Thunder Gulch, Monarchos, and perhaps Sea Hero).

What we are looking for in the Derby is the readiness for a peak performance from a developing, distance-capable, lightly raced horse. And that horse should have shown, at some point - almost always in the two or three months before the first Saturday in May - that he can handle Beyers in the 108-110 range. Of course, everyone will be trying to find just the right peak performer for the Derby. Easier said than done, I know, especially in a talent-laden, overcrowded field facing an unfamiliar distance and track surface and hectic race-day atmosphere. But that's why the Derby is every year's most difficult handicapping challenge.

Here's a look at the Beyer patterns of the leading Derby contenders (most recent Beyer figures first):

ATSWHATIMTALKINBOUT (98-102-105-92-87) - He cycled up to a 105, then cycled back down to a 98 in his somewhat dull effort in the Santa Anita Derby. Renewed improvement is very common in horses with this pattern, but that improvement is unlikely to be dramatic enough to make him a serious contender for the top spot. Still, that earlier 105 is right on the borderline of the Beyer Derby zone of 108-110.

BRANCUSI (98-101-86-77-73-60) - Steady improvement up to a solid level, but he just hasn't demonstrated that he can gain the 8 or 10 additional points he will very likely need in order to contend for the win at Churchill Downs.

BUDDY GIL (104-102-106T-78-65-95) - Solid but uninspiring. The steady Beyer pattern in his last two races does not suggest any further move up to a figure of 108 or 110, and the slow final fractions in the Santa Anita Derby warn of possible distance limitations with the stretch-out to 1 ¼ miles.

EMPIRE MAKER (111-108-98-92-84) - His Beyers have improved in every race. Steady, incremental gains. There's certainly potential for a bounce after two big numbers, but, if so, it shouldn't be very severe since he has been handled carefully and has not had any seriously stressful races. Both Bailey and Frankel see a lot of gas still left in the tank. The very logical, deserving favorite.

EYE OF THE TIGER (94-102-97-92-70) - He has earned his two highest Beyers at six furlongs and 6 ½ furlongs. His most recent figure of 94 around two turns would not be even remotely competitive in the Derby.

FUNNY CIDE (110-99-87-89-103-96) - Cycled up to a big figure of 110 in a rather draining, all-out effort. Among ordinary horses a bounce would be very likely. But high-quality young horses can sometimes avoid a severe regression. At least he has demonstrated that he's capable of running a Beyer in the Derby-winning zone, but step backward seems a stronger possibility than with Empire Maker.

INDIAN EXPRESS (104-97) - A horse with a very brief record on the dirt. A bit of an enigma. He's working very well, and further upward development would make him a contender.

KAFWAIN (100-101-115-102-97-92) - An interesting case. Very pedestrian performances in his last two after a tremendously impressive blockbuster 115. But that huge figure was earned at seven furlongs and his two-turn races have been severely lacking. Possibility of an illness having affected his most recent race. An upset chance, since that 115 shows serious talent. Distance question remains.

LONE STAR SKY (89-98-91-68-86) - His Beyer pattern suggests he's a longshot without a realistic shot. He improved up to a top Beyer of 98, and most recently regressed to an 89 in the Illinois Derby. These are good numbers for an allowance runner. They're light years away from Derby contention.

OFFLEE WILD (91-93-99-87-90-51) - He has been the victim of a number of tough trips, and his 99 this winter at Gulfstream Park showed great promise. But, having not yet recorded a triple-digit Beyer, he has a long way to go before he can approach a figure of 108 to 110.

OUTTA HERE (98-95T-84-81-88-87) - His 98 Beyer as a two year old last December offers some hope that, with four months' additional maturity, he should be capable of two-turn Beyers in the triple-digit range. But with only one Dubai race in 2003, his conditioning is a serious question. He deserves his longshot status.

PEACE RULES (104-105) - Has benefited from good trips against weaker competition, has not been visually impressive, and still has managed Beyers of only 105 and 104 in his two victories. He has not yet demonstrated the capacity to run figures close to the 108 and 110 generally needed for a Derby win.

SCRIMSHAW (99-75-92-104-82) - This is not the first time Lukas has taken the Lexington-stakes road to the Derby. Charismatic did it. So did Proud Citizen. While Scrimshaw's figure of 99 (aided by a perfect, rail-hugging, pocket trip) does not approach Charismatic's 108 in the Lexington, it is higher than Proud Citizen's 95 - and Proud Citizen finished second in last year's Derby with a Beyer of 108. So Scrimshaw should be considered a potentially explosive runner.

SENOR SWINGER (96-75-93-86) - He appears to be severely out-Beyered at this stage. It's extremely unlikely that this Baffert purchase will be as successful as War Emblem.

SIR CHEROKEE (106-80-84-80-90-66) - Most likely to bounce after huge jump up from low-80's to a 106. Arkansas Derby set up well for him. Still, he did run a big number and improving young three year olds are more capable of repeating such figures than are your older, cheaper, everyday runners.

SUPAH BLITZ (95-87-97-92-86T-95) - In the midst of a potentially strong cycling pattern which could bring him into triple-digit territory. Still, that would only be good enough for a minor share. Negative sign: he has not really improved on his much earlier Beyer of 95 earned six races back. Not usually a positive indication for a developing young horse.

TEN MOST WANTED (110-92-86-79-85) - Steady, solid improvement up to a 110. A bounce could be less likely, since that 110 was earned in a rather easy gallop, under very little stress. A major contender.

Joe Cardello is the author of the new book from DRF Press titled Speed to Spare: Beyer Speed Figures Uncovered. He has been a member of the Beyer fig-making team since 1991.

This year, good luck. The exercise of breaking down the nine-furlong Derby preps sheds interesting light on the individual races, but they were run on such radically different surfaces and under such disparate pace scenarios that they are extremely difficult to compare.

The problem becomes obvious when you rank the come-home times among the 54 individual performances in the six major nine-furlong preps -- the Wood, Blue Grass, and the Florida, Santa Anita, Illinois and Arkansas Derbies. Here are the five fastest final-furlong times in those races:

Sir Cherokee 11.85
Crowned King 11.94
Sir Liam 12.31
Region of Merit 12.41
Aristocat 12.59

Who? Yes, the 1-5-7-4-8 finishers in the Arkansas Derby were the only colts to come home in raw time quicker than 12.60, but it is highly unlikely that this will prove to be the key to this year's Triple Crown.

First of all, the Oaklawn track is notorious for producing unusually quick final furlongs, to the point where horseplayers often question whether the poles are in the right place. Nineteen years ago, Althea supposedly ran her final eighth in 11.40 while wiring colts in the Arkansas Derby.

Second, the race was run so strangely that it makes the winner's clocking less impressive than it might first seem while casting further down on all the other fast come-home times. The victorious Sir Cherokee trailed the field early and in fact was the only horse in a field of 12 to run his very first quarter-mile in over 23 seconds. The race collapsed in front of him. It defies common sense that horses who went fast early, such as Region of Merit (22.61) and Aristocrat (22.78), were flying home late.

At the other end of the spectrum, this year's Blue Grass finished like a tractor pull. Here are the final furlongs for the first five under the wire:

Peace Rules 13.93
Brancusi 14.36
Offlee Wild 14.58
Crowned Dancer 15.77
Acceptable Venture 15.64

The other three came home in slower than 17 seconds.

The races received similar final-time Beyer Speed Figures - Sir Cherokee's 1:48.39 earned a 106 while Peace Rules's 151.73 got a 104, reflecting the difference in the Oaklawn and Keeneland racing surfaces on the days of those races. This still does not account for the difference between the final furlongs -- Sir Cherokee's 11.85 and Peace Rules's 13.93. Why would a 3.39-second difference over nine furlongs be so heavily concentrated in just the final-furlong difference of 2.08 seconds?

If we look beyond these two races, some more familiar prospects come into view. In the four other nine-furlong preps, there were only seven other final-furlong performances that came in under 13 seconds:

Indy Dancer 12.60
Ten Most Wanted 12.62
Kissin Saint 12.77
Empire Maker(Aqu) 12.79
Senor Swinger 12.81
Funny Cide 12.86
Empire Maker(GP) 12.91

Five of these seven performances came in the Wood Memorial over a drying-out muddy track that was clearly changing throughout the afternoon and required a split variant for final-time comparisons. Indy Dancer's 12.60 was the best finish in the race but came after his usual trail-early/clunk-up-late routine.

While there's nothing discouraging about Empire Maker's 12.79 after contesting a moderate pace, he wasn't exactly outfinishing the field. His 12.91 over a duller Gulfstream strip was certainly more impressive. For the record, Empire Maker's fourth quarter of 24.46 in the Wood was the best fourth quarter among the 54 performances in the six preps.

The Santa Anita Derby, which earned a moderate Beyer of 104, comes up similarly mediocre on finishing times. While the pace of the race was quick, those who laid off it failed to finish with a flourish. The best final furlong in the race belongs to Indian Express(13.15), who dueled for the lead the whole way and was coming back on Buddy Gill at the wire. Kafwain (13.21), Buddy Gill (13.22) and especially Atswhatimtalkinbout (13.34) should have been able to finish better from off the pace. The more you look at it, Indian Express probably turned in the biggest performance in the race, but how much can you trust him at 10 furlongs?

The final furlong that really jumps out is Ten Most Wanted's in the Illinois Derby. His 12.62 came over a dull surface that yielded a final time of 1:51.47 but earned a Beyer of 110, right there with Empire Maker's 108 at Gulfstream and 111 at Aqueduct. Ten Most Wanted, who was bottled up until the stretch, truly roared away from the field. The next best final eighth in the race was runner-up Fund of Funds's 13.56, and seven of the other eight behind him finished in 14 seconds or slower.

For those looking to beat Empire Maker, Ten Most Wanted may prove an attractive key. The problem is that he won't be anything like the 20-1 offered by last year's fast-finishing Illinois Derby winner. With Pat Day in the saddle at Churchill Downs, a 110 Beyer despite trouble in his final prep and so little proven quality in the field, Ten Most Wanted is looking Six More Likely.