Daily Racing Form - Kentucky Derby

DRF.com Kentucky Derby Chat with Steven Crist 4/25/2003 7:00 pm - 8:07 pm
DRF_WEBGRP: 7:00 pm	Welcome everyone, we'll start off with a question from DIBBSNDUBBS...
DIBBSNDUBBS: 7:00 pm	Steve, does that fact that Empire Maker was drifting some and gauking a bit in the Wood Memorial concern you at all?
Steven Crist: 7:01 pm	Greetings to all. As for the drifting.....
Steven Crist: 7:01 pm	It didn't seem alarming for a horse making his fifth career start and still getting used to lead changes.
Grandtri: 7:02 pm	Who do you see as the speed of the race and do you expect the pace to be fast?
Steven Crist: 7:02 pm	It always pays to be patoent and make your pace scenarios when FINAL entries are in...
Steven Crist: 7:02 pm	Having said that, Indian Express is completely committed to the lead....
Steven Crist: 7:03 pm	Peace Rules and Brancusi won't be far off...
Steven Crist: 7:03 pm	The nice thing about Empire Maker, if you like him....
Steven Crist: 7:03 pm	is that he seemes able to adapt to however the pace comes up.
castle-man: 7:03 pm	Can Kafwain win the kentucky derby
Steven Crist: 7:03 pm	That seems a real stretch....
Steven Crist: 7:04 pm	He looks like a horse who peaked very early....
Steven Crist: 7:04 pm	and now is headed in the wrong direction. I don't like the way he finished in either of his last two races.
theovals: 7:04 pm	In the 100+ year history of the KY Derby, favorites have won over one-third of the time. Is it just a statistical anomaly that only one has done so in the last two decades?
Steven Crist: 7:04 pm	Good question....
Steven Crist: 7:05 pm	I do think it's gotten a lot harder for the favorite to win....
Steven Crist: 7:05 pm	if only because the average field size has gotten so much bigger....
Steven Crist: 7:05 pm	You really, in my opinion, can't use Derby stats from before 1960 or so in any meaningful way.....
Steven Crist: 7:05 pm	The race drew from a much smaller foal crop and geographic talent pool back then.....
Steven Crist: 7:06 pm	It's very similar to how horses who won the Derby and Preakness had a very high winning percentage of completing the Triple Crown....
Steven Crist: 7:06 pm	RIght u[p until 1950. Since then the stat is horrible. The game has gotten tougher.
wise.man: 7:06 pm	any thoughts on Eye of the Tiger, should Hollendorfer elect to run him next Saturday ?
Steven Crist: 7:07 pm	He's lightly raced, can improve and will be a price.....
Steven Crist: 7:07 pm	On the other hand, the Lexington was S-L-O-W.
horseglenn: 7:07 pm	Steve, Why is Storm FLag not running in the Ky. Oaks?
Steven Crist: 7:08 pm	I don't think she was ever more than 50 percent to run in it....
Steven Crist: 7:08 pm	She's a NY filly and is being pointed for that new triple series....
Steven Crist: 7:08 pm	$2 million bonus for winning Mother Goose/Oaks/Alabama....
Steven Crist: 7:08 pm	And she was just awful in her retuirn so short-term that's why she's not going....
Steven Crist: 7:09 pm	I think she illustrates why OPaks Future Betting was a bad idea....The Oaks is NOT the Derby.
Court: 7:10 pm	Do you feel projections of Empire Maker winning the Triple Crown at this time are way too early, or do you feel that is a real possibility? Do you think he is a "lock" for the Derby even?
Steven Crist: 7:11 pm	Any projection about winning three straight races is premature and idiotic...
Steven Crist: 7:11 pm	I happen to like him but he's far from a "lock" for even one race....
Steven Crist: 7:12 pm	He's the most likely winner to my mind but it's hard to say at this point that ANY horse is more than 50 percent to win a Derby. And it's not as if he has a huge margin for error.
Arazi: 7:12 pm	Do you think Sir Cherokee will bounce, or match that career effort?
Steven Crist: 7:12 pm	I do not believe that horses bounce....
Steven Crist: 7:13 pm	It's unusual for them to get the same perfect set-up to register a huge fig twice in a row...
Steven Crist: 7:13 pm	As or Sir Cherokee, he got a super-perfect set-up againt a horrendous field at Oaklawn....
Steven Crist: 7:14 pm	But he's perfectly logical to clunk up fopr 3rd or 4th.
puzzlement: 7:14 pm	Do you see Scrimshaw becoming another Charismatic or Proud Citizen for Lukas?
Steven Crist: 7:14 pm	It's possible and you have to respect Lukas at this time of the year in Kentucky....
Steven Crist: 7:15 pm	But he looks more like a Proud Citizen than a Charismatic....
Steven Crist: 7:15 pm	A one-dimensional stretch-out sprinter who caught a gold rail at Keeneland.
knick: 7:15 pm	I am making a grocery-list. A great value this week on Hood ice-cream. Any value on Peace Rules?
Steven Crist: 7:16 pm	If Frankel hadn't made it so clear he thinks Empire Maker is in a different league, Peace Rules might be a shorter price off his La derby and Blue Grass.....
Steven Crist: 7:17 pm	He just doesn't inspire copnfidence going longer but he's obviously a good horse and might get a little overlooked.
tatnuck: 7:17 pm	Lets talk value for a min, What betting opertunities do you see if you don`t like Empire Maker?
Steven Crist: 7:17 pm	There are tremendous opportunities if you don't like Empire Maker....
Steven Crist: 7:18 pm	He's going to be the heaviest favorite in a long time, and you're knocking millions of dollars out of the pools if you pitch him....
Steven Crist: 7:18 pm	My problem is, I like him.
Clocker.Marvin: 7:18 pm	Is Atswhatimtalkin about the most likely overlay in the Derby?
Steven Crist: 7:18 pm	That depends on whether you think he's legit.....
Steven Crist: 7:19 pm	I'm having trouble pegging his price....he could be anywhere from 12-1 to 22-1 in my mind....
Steven Crist: 7:19 pm	On the one hand, he was the 3-2 favorite in the SA Derby and clearly didn't run his best race....
Steven Crist: 7:19 pm	On the other, he's never won any kind of a stakes race.
funny.cide: 7:20 pm	do ydid you think funny cide was drained at the end of the wood memorial?
Steven Crist: 7:21 pm	He was about at the end of his rope but he hung in nicely....
Steven Crist: 7:21 pm	He's going to earn a fortune and could become one of the best NY-breds ever....
Steven Crist: 7:21 pm	But I can't come up with a single reason he should ever finish in front of Empire Maker.
chops: 7:22 pm	acceptable win odds for Buddy Gil and Ten Most wanted
Steven Crist: 7:22 pm	I like one and not the other so my answer will reflect that...
Steven Crist: 7:22 pm	I would want 8-1 or better on TMW.....
Steven Crist: 7:23 pm	He has a solid Beyer fig and a great final furlong in the Illinois Derby.....
Steven Crist: 7:23 pm	But as dave Litfin pointed out this week....
Steven Crist: 7:23 pm	The first thgree finishers in that race all improved 18 poits over their previous best figure.....
Steven Crist: 7:23 pm	So there's a possibility the race was flukey.....
Steven Crist: 7:24 pm	Buddy Gil I just can't see at all....Those were slow races on his home court and he doesn't appear to have much improvement left in him.
tjd29: 7:24 pm	cornell Is Ten Cents a Shine worth a wager at 50-1? Does Lukas really believe this horse is dangerous?
Steven Crist: 7:25 pm	I would want 150-1...Doesn't have a race in the ballpark and he's been beaten 80+ lengths in his last three starts. That's 150-1 to show I would demand.
homerj: 7:25 pm	Does Offlee Wild garner any serious consideration?
Steven Crist: 7:26 pm	For third he does....I'll be using him underneathon my tickets...He finished with a little interest in the Blue Grass and he'd been off two months and sick.
theovals: 7:26 pm	What probability would you give to Indian Express stealing the derby in wire-to-wire fashion?
Steven Crist: 7:27 pm	His race in the SA Derby was realy interesting....
Steven Crist: 7:27 pm	He dueled all the way and still ran the fastest final eighth in the race.....
Steven Crist: 7:27 pm	It's conceivable he's doing a getting-good-at-the-righ-time thing like War Emblem last April.....
Steven Crist: 7:28 pm	Or you could say he illustrates what a bad bunch that was in the SA Derby....
Steven Crist: 7:28 pm	But he looks to have Congaree-like potential.
Don.Arturo: 7:28 pm	It appeared Empire Maker`s Wood was done with ease. Bailey didn`t seem to use him. But some are suggesting otherwise. What do you think Steve?
Steven Crist: 7:29 pm	I think the whole "with ease" thing is generally overused..... but in this case they announced it going in and Bailey really did seem to do an absolute minimum to win the race...
Steven Crist: 7:29 pm	There's a lot of debate about the Wood figure.....
Steven Crist: 7:30 pm	That was a drying-out track with a split varianbt., It seems counterintuitive that he ran a bigger figure in the Wood than the Florida Derby...
Steven Crist: 7:30 pm	and that contradicts the "with ease" thing to some extent if he did.
TeeItUp: 7:31 pm	Mr Crist, so many of this years derby "contenders" have fallen by the wayside. Do you feel the 2003 Kentucky Derby has the potential to be a bit of a watered down version in comparison to previous runnings?
Steven Crist: 7:31 pm	You raise a good point because we've all forgotten that the 1-2-3 top 2yo's of 2002....
Steven Crist: 7:32 pm	are all on the sidelines. Imagine this race if Vindication, Sky Mesa and Toccet were in it. You could say things have worked out rather nicely for Empire Maker.
Steven Crist: 7:32 pm	And there's always Hold That Tiger over in the UK.
kelso: 7:32 pm	what about brancusi, I think he has a big shot at an upset
Steven Crist: 7:32 pm	You'll certainly get a price...
Steven Crist: 7:33 pm	He was dead tired in the San Felipe and losing ground at the end of the Blue Grass. I suppose you could say he was against the bias at Keeneland chasing from the outside but in my heart I can't see him at 10 furlongs.
Arazi: 7:34 pm	Betting value makes sense to me in theory, but I gave it up in practice, because it doesn`t take into account smart money, any comments?
Steven Crist: 7:34 pm	You're not gonna like this but...
Steven Crist: 7:34 pm	I don't believe in "smart money." Maybe on a first-time starter but otherwise it's just large money, not smart money....
Steven Crist: 7:35 pm	There's no secret rooms where people who know the outcome of races are making a fortune. They're just gambling like the rest of us.
dog: 7:35 pm	What do you think about the Godolphin people bypassing both the Oaks and the Derby?
Steven Crist: 7:35 pm	They're a wacky outfit....
Steven Crist: 7:36 pm	Sheik Mohammed is stubborn as a camel and won't prep his horses over here, so they always run horribly. Maybe he got tired of finishing up the track in the Derby.
prariebyu: 7:37 pm	Having said that you like Empire Maker, what, if anything can you add that you may see as a negative going into the Derby with this horse?
Steven Crist: 7:37 pm	The biggest negative to me is that he's never had to overcome adversity....
Steven Crist: 7:38 pm	He's never been in a big field or gotten banged around or had to overcome an impossible trip. It's possible he's been babied a little. The Derby is rarely a cakewalk and we dion't know how he'll handle trouble.
faco: 7:38 pm	steve, super blitz was impressive in the fountain of youth. can he move forward and come in the money?
Steven Crist: 7:38 pm	I disagree that he was "impressive" in the FOY....he sucked up the rail and no one but the winner did any running....
Steven Crist: 7:39 pm	He's a nice Fla-bred sprinter who doesn't belong in the Derby.
chaos0129: 7:39 pm	what do you think about midas eyes in the derby trial and there after?
Steven Crist: 7:39 pm	His Swale was the most impressive performance I've seen all year by a 3-year-old....
Steven Crist: 7:40 pm	He ran lights out. He looks like a sprinter/miler and he's got a ton of talent. That was some job by Franmkel cranking him up for a performance like that off a long layoff.
DIBBSNDUBBS: 7:40 pm	Stever of the 4 major preps, Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Ark Derby, Blue Grass...which one impressed you most and why?
Steven Crist: 7:41 pm	I think the best horse was in the Wood but honestly none of those four races was all that impressive....The Santa Anita Derby was a huge disappointment because there was a hot pace yet no one finished well....
Steven Crist: 7:41 pm	The Blue Grass was a bizarre trudge through a plowed field....
Steven Crist: 7:42 pm	And the Arkansas race was run weirdly and set up for the only horse in the field who didn;'t run his first quarter in 22 and change.
Sandy: 7:42 pm	Steve, who are your top four choices?
Steven Crist: 7:43 pm	I reserve the right to change them completely between now and next Thursday...BUT....
Steven Crist: 7:43 pm	I guess I'd go something like Empire Maker, Ten Most Wanted, atswhatimwhatever and Offlee Wild as a bomb.
SpeedConscious: 7:43 pm	Any comments on Outta Here?
Steven Crist: 7:44 pm	I think the name says it all.
Clocker.Marvin: 7:44 pm	Outside of Derby Day, do you wager on Kentucky races or do you find it too difficult to beat them w/ their poor drug regulations?
Steven Crist: 7:45 pm	I don't regularly play Kentucky but Derby Day is too tempting.....
Steven Crist: 7:45 pm	More dopey money floating around than when the fleet comes in....
Steven Crist: 7:45 pm	And what else am I going to do trapped at CD for eight hours. Read a book?
Bertrando: 7:46 pm	If you had a 3 year-old with Derby talent, would you rather he be in the barn of Frankel, Lukas or Baffert?
Steven Crist: 7:46 pm	Great question...Frankel is incredible these days.....
Steven Crist: 7:47 pm	But you have to wonder whether Wayne and Bob's greater Derby experience might pay off with a little trick or two they've learned over the years. I guess I'd go with Wayne because I know him the best of those three guys.
overdog: 7:47 pm	Any thots on dosage, dual qualifiers, etc this year? Contenders over 4.00 etc?
Steven Crist: 7:47 pm	I have the same feeling this year as in any other: It's hooey, hogwash and voodoo.
Francis.Detorri: 7:48 pm	How much is reasonable to spread to hit the trifecta?
Steven Crist: 7:48 pm	I take it you don't have a mount in the race, Frankie....
Steven Crist: 7:48 pm	Seriously, that depends on your bankroll but you should probably spread more than usual....
Steven Crist: 7:49 pm	since there are more betting intyerests and more general uncertainty than in your average $25k claiming field....
Steven Crist: 7:49 pm	If you liked WE and PC last year, you didn't want to get nothing if you only played tris and tossed Perfect Frift to save a few bucks.
Birdseyeview: 7:50 pm	Atswhatimtalkinbout - has the lemon been squeezed dry? No 2 year old races & 5 races this year - does he have one left in him?
Steven Crist: 7:51 pm	That's the $64k question about whether to use him. I'm not that impressed with the no-2yo-races stat....
Steven Crist: 7:51 pm	If he's run five days earlier he'd have raced at 2.....
Steven Crist: 7:51 pm	His last race was so bad either you throw it out and get a better price....or conclude that he's already washed up. I lean toward the former.,
JBLSTABLE: 7:52 pm	WHOSE THE LAST DERBY WINNER YOU HAD?
Steven Crist: 7:52 pm	I picked War Emblem 3rd and Monarchos second....
Steven Crist: 7:52 pm	but the last one I had on top was, um.....
Steven Crist: 7:52 pm	Strike the Gold.
Bertrando: 7:53 pm	If Empire Maker draws the rail or the far outside, what price would you need on a win bet?
Steven Crist: 7:54 pm	Those draws would raise the number but I don't find him an attractive win bet at 7-5ish even if he draws perfectly. I would try to leverage other opinions in the race to try to turn him into 5-1 or better.
kelsterthe.great: 7:55 pm	what is it that lukas does to his 3 yr olds that they don`t seem to be arounnd very long after he`s finished with them ! Does he hammer them or what ??
Steven Crist: 7:55 pm	I hate to be D-Wayne's apologist but I think that perception is based on how many horses he has had rather than a higher rate of breakdowns.....
Steven Crist: 7:56 pm	He's the same as any trainer who concentrates on speed pedigrees and races 2-year-olds aggressively.
lee: 7:57 pm	Will they soup the track up and will that affect your betting?
Steven Crist: 7:57 pm	I hope not....Last year they didn't, perhaps because they took so much justified heat for the Monarchos track....
Steven Crist: 7:57 pm	The quickness of the track would affect my betting less than a pronounced bias.
Clocker.Marvin: 7:58 pm	Should all Derby finishers be tested for EPO & should the results be made public?
Steven Crist: 7:59 pm	Probably, yes. Given the profile of the race, it's a good opportunity to demonstrate the game's cleanliness. Or lack thereof.its cleanline
ezgoerbab1: 7:59 pm	What do you think about the news today that Mike Gill is getting out of racing?
Steven Crist: 7:59 pm	It's a shame if it's true....
Steven Crist: 7:59 pm	For all I know the guy is Satan but to be barred from running his horses....
Steven Crist: 7:59 pm	in the absence of ANY evidence of wrongdoing.....
Steven Crist: 8:00 pm	is frightening to me.
YODA_ON_ACID: 8:00 pm	It`s usually the "other Frankel horse" that upsets a good percentage of the time - and at a good price. What do you think of Peace Rules chances at pulling an upset?
Steven Crist: 8:00 pm	I think that's paranoid thinking....
Steven Crist: 8:01 pm	The guy has much more at stake than getting a "price" on Peace Rules.
djr1961: 8:01 pm	If funny cide show a very solid last work adn comes out extremely strong, would you still not include him as a top three pick? I have by the way used your place and show bets well even to the point of last years tri with Valpoini.
Steven Crist: 8:02 pm	I'd use him 3rd and 4th only...I just can't see him gaining in the lane in that final furlong.
dislikedinkentucky: 8:03 pm	Do you think that with Dynever waiting in the wings for the belmont, there is added intrigue in this years triple crown
Steven Crist: 8:04 pm	Yes I do. Dynever's a very exciting horse and I like fresh faces in the Belmont. It would be pretty exciting if EM or someone else won the first two legs and met Dynever in NY for all the marbles.
Steven Crist: 8:05 pm	Thank you all for coming and good luck in the Derby.Good night.
DRF_WEBGRP: 8:05 pm	Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Kentucky Derby!
DRF_WEBGRP: 8:05 pm	Join us on Wednesday, April 30 from 5:00-6:00 pm Eastern for live pill by pill updates of the Kentucky Derby post position draw. Just go to DRF.com!
DRF_WEBGRP: 8:05 pm	Be sure to check out Speed to Spare (you didn't miss the giant ad to your right, did you?) - It's a new book by Joe Cardello that teaches you how to utilize Beyer Speed Figures to their full potential.
DRF_WEBGRP: 8:05 pm	On Wednesday, April 30 at 7:00 pm EDT chat with Joe Cardello, author of Speed to Spare.
DRF_WEBGRP: 8:05 pm	We will be posting a transcript of tonight's chat later this evening in the DRF.com Kentucky Derby section.
DRF_WEBGRP: 8:05 pm	In the words of the great Stanley Bergstein, good night all.