Daily Racing Form - Kentucky Derby

DRF.com Kentucky Derby Chat with Joe Cardello 4/30/2003 6:53 pm - 8:07 pm
DRF_WEBGRP: 6:59 pm	Welcome to tonight's chat. We are having some technical issues with DRF.com right now but we're going to go ahead and start with a question from Chirs Grabowski...
Chris.Grabowski: 6:59 pm	Joe, do you think Scrimshaw`s Beyer Speed Figures show that improvement can be expected?
Joe Cardello: 7:00 pm	Actually, I did like Scrimshaw's Beyer figure pattern and...
Joe Cardello: 7:00 pm	I did think that the 99 he ran in the LExington did set him up for a stronger Beyer in the Derby.
Joe Cardello: 7:01 pm	A lot has already been written about how Lukas used the Lexington Handicap for Charismatic and for Proud Citizen last year...
Joe Cardello: 7:01 pm	Unfortuanately Scrimshaw seems to be accumulating a lot of negatives in the days before the Derby.
Joe Cardello: 7:02 pm	The post position draw has probably hurt this horse the most, he has to start from 17 in a field of 17.
Joe Cardello: 7:02 pm	Basically, he is a pace horse and he could get severly hung out on the first turn and that could compromise his chances.
Tom: 7:03 pm	If that 111 earned by EM is legit, isn`t he a candidate to bounce -considering his previous was also a 108 top?
Joe Cardello: 7:04 pm	There is a possibility that EM could bounce. He has improved steadily...]
Joe Cardello: 7:04 pm	in each of his 5 lifetime races. But, you can't look at a bounce in the same way...
Joe Cardello: 7:04 pm	with these young talented, lightly raced, 3 year olds.
Joe Cardello: 7:05 pm	This horse has been handled very cautiously, very carefully...
Joe Cardello: 7:05 pm	The 108 beyer from the FL Derby was won at a gallop. And even his 111 in the Wood clearly was won with something left in the tank...
Joe Cardello: 7:06 pm	I wouldn't expect this horse to bounce severely, perhaps he could run a few points worse but I wouldn't expect a dramatic regression.
ThunderGulchFan: 7:06 pm	Some people tend to think that Sir Cherokee will bounce after his huge effort in the Arkansas Derby. A morning line of 15-1 seems a bit low. His beyer was huge as well. What are your thought on him hitting the top four?
Joe Cardello: 7:06 pm	Two thoughts...
Joe Cardello: 7:07 pm	First, he's the most likely to bounce in this field...
Joe Cardello: 7:07 pm	When you jump up more than 20 points after a big effort, even with a lightly raced 3 yo, that's much more of a warning light for the possibility of a bounce.
Joe Cardello: 7:08 pm	My other thought...
Joe Cardello: 7:08 pm	He was very impressive visually in the Arkansas Derby...
Joe Cardello: 7:08 pm	and that he's the only horse with a big Beyer figure going into the Derby....
Joe Cardello: 7:08 pm	who will be a big price.
Chip: 7:09 pm	In your opinion, how lkely is Ten Most Wanted to bounce?
Joe Cardello: 7:09 pm	I would say the same about this horse as EM...
Joe Cardello: 7:10 pm	there's a chance that since he's improved 4 straight races...
Joe Cardello: 7:10 pm	that he might not run quite as well, stretching out to a mile and a quarter.
Joe Cardello: 7:10 pm	But, he also run that 110 last time...
Joe Cardello: 7:10 pm	under minimum stress - or so it appeared - and he seems to be working very well...
Joe Cardello: 7:11 pm	so I expect him to run very well.
Dibbsndubbs: 7:11 pm	Joe, how do you feel about Brancusi? is he a legit contender? does the presece of farina, make you at all leary?
Joe Cardello: 7:12 pm	I do think Brancusi has a chance for a minor share...
Joe Cardello: 7:12 pm	this horse ran a race last time that's better than it looks on paper...
Joe Cardello: 7:13 pm	he had to chase Peace Rules on the outside at Keeneland, and held on fairly well...
Joe Cardello: 7:13 pm	He's run 2 solid figures in a row, certainly not good enough to be considered a contender for the top spot..
Joe Cardello: 7:13 pm	but I was intrigued by the fact that they chose post position 2...
Joe Cardello: 7:14 pm	my guess - they will be looking to sit on the rail , just behind the speed horses...
Joe Cardello: 7:14 pm	and with that kind of trip, this horse could be a factor in tri's and superfectas.
Given: 7:14 pm	I think Offlee Wild is sitting on a career effort, but I am not sure it will be enough to get in the trifecta, What are your thoughts on him?
Joe Cardello: 7:15 pm	I think he's an outsider with a shot at a huge price, but only a shot at a very minor share.
Joe Cardello: 7:15 pm	THis horse impressed me in one of his FL races, and I was very enthusiastic about this horse...
Joe Cardello: 7:15 pm	but his last 2 races have been a bit disappointing.
Joe Cardello: 7:16 pm	Even though he hasn't had the best circumstances trip-wise.
kfrisco: 7:16 pm	What are your thoughts on Buddy Gil? Can he make the 1 1/4 distance?
Joe Cardello: 7:16 pm	This is a hard horse to either hate or love...
Joe Cardello: 7:17 pm	he's run well enough to win in races in CA that did not turn out to be all that impressive...
Joe Cardello: 7:17 pm	he's been steady and solid...
Joe Cardello: 7:17 pm	but his Beyer fig's don't show any serious promise of a dramatic increase.
speed2spare: 7:17 pm	Atswhatimtalkinabout seems to be training well. Do you think he has a legitimate chance to win?
Joe Cardello: 7:17 pm	NO
Joe Cardello: 7:18 pm	I like his Beyer pattern...
Joe Cardello: 7:18 pm	in the sense that he declines gradually from a big figure of 105...
Joe Cardello: 7:18 pm	And a horse with this kind of pattern...
Joe Cardello: 7:19 pm	frequently begins to improve again.
Joe Cardello: 7:19 pm	But once again, I can't see this horse improving enough to win.
Joe Cardello: 7:19 pm	I think perhaps all the horses coming out of the SA Derby
Joe Cardello: 7:20 pm	are questionable regarding their distance abilities.
AlphaBettor: 7:20 pm	Who do you expect to have the lead after a half-mile, and what do you think the fraction will be?
Joe Cardello: 7:21 pm	If you can tell me how deep the track surface will be at CD on Saturday...
Joe Cardello: 7:21 pm	and which jockeys and trainers have decided to go to the lead...
Joe Cardello: 7:21 pm	and which of those horses will break sharply...
Joe Cardello: 7:21 pm	then I might be willing to tell you what the pace will be.
Dibbsndubbs: 7:21 pm	Joe do you buy into Lukas`s theory that TEN CENTS A SHINE`s problem is all mental? does this horse have any shot at all?
Joe Cardello: 7:22 pm	You would have to say that this horse, on paper, has the least chance of any horse in the race -- to be anywhere.
Court: 7:22 pm	What about Peace Rules, can he hit the board?
Joe Cardello: 7:22 pm	I don't like this horse...
Joe Cardello: 7:22 pm	I know this is a dangerous thing to say since Bobby Frankel is the trainer...
Joe Cardello: 7:23 pm	but this horse has had very easy trips...
Joe Cardello: 7:23 pm	and his Beyer's - while solid - have not really improved under ideal circumstances...
Joe Cardello: 7:23 pm	it's very unlikely he will have such ideal circumstances on Saturday.
Pyrz.D: 7:24 pm	Any opinion on Outta Here coming from dubai and Kent D has stuck with him whereever he goes
Joe Cardello: 7:24 pm	THis horse has one interesting element to him...
Joe Cardello: 7:24 pm	that he did run a 98 Beyer as a 2YO...
Joe Cardello: 7:24 pm	in December.
Joe Cardello: 7:24 pm	If he's fit...
Joe Cardello: 7:24 pm	If he still has that kind of ability he showed as a 2YO...
Joe Cardello: 7:25 pm	THen he has a chance at a huge price to get into the mix.
Joe Cardello: 7:25 pm	But a question of fitness - in a race this demanding - at a mile and a qtr...
Joe Cardello: 7:25 pm	with so little preparation...
Joe Cardello: 7:25 pm	it would really be a stretch to make a strong case for his chances.
ohio.emblem: 7:26 pm	Do you think Indian Express offers good value in the early line?
Joe Cardello: 7:26 pm	Absolutely...
Joe Cardello: 7:26 pm	I do think this horse offers value in the race...
Joe Cardello: 7:26 pm	Not only that he's trained by Bob Baffert...
Joe Cardello: 7:27 pm	but he is a possible pace setter....
Joe Cardello: 7:27 pm	he had a tough trip last time and ran very gamely...
Joe Cardello: 7:27 pm	his Beyer fig's have improved in his last 2 races...
Joe Cardello: 7:27 pm	he appears to be training very well at CD...
Joe Cardello: 7:27 pm	and i think he's a serious potential upset possibility.
magic: 7:28 pm	Obviously Domestic Dispute`s new owner just wanted to play. How can this horse revive?
Joe Cardello: 7:28 pm	He's not totally impossible for a minor share...
Joe Cardello: 7:28 pm	but he's a deserving longshot.
Pyrz.D: 7:29 pm	Joe the Trainer of Supah Blitz said hed rather run in Derby against Empire Maker then run against Dynever in Lone Star Derby on May 10th do you give this horse any shot?
Joe Cardello: 7:29 pm	this is a horse that i might use for 3rd or 4th...
Joe Cardello: 7:29 pm	because he's going to be 50-1 or better...
Joe Cardello: 7:29 pm	he's a big closer...
Joe Cardello: 7:29 pm	and invariably in the Derby, somebody clunks along...
Joe Cardello: 7:30 pm	in the very late stages, picking up the pieces from many horses for whom one and qtr mile is beyond their limit.
Joe Cardello: 7:30 pm	he has the potential to cycle up above a Beyer of 100...
Joe Cardello: 7:30 pm	and that could be good enough for 3rd or 4th.
AlphaBettor: 7:31 pm	I`ll rephrase my question. What are the chances of the race setting up for a closer, specifically Ten Most Wanted?
Joe Cardello: 7:31 pm	Again, i wish I knew if it were going to be a fast, moderate or slow pace...
Joe Cardello: 7:31 pm	Last year, we all thought the pace would be suicidal...
Joe Cardello: 7:32 pm	not only didn't the pace turn out to be fast...
Joe Cardello: 7:32 pm	but we actually had a lone speed who ended up wiring the field.
Joe Cardello: 7:33 pm	In other years, for ex when FuPeg won the pace was insanely fast...
Joe Cardello: 7:33 pm	he was able to get a perfect trip closing on the inside.
Joe Cardello: 7:33 pm	So obviously, pace is a huge factor.
Joe Cardello: 7:33 pm	Especially, in a race with 17 horses.
Joe Cardello: 7:33 pm	When the pace is slow...
Joe Cardello: 7:34 pm	as it was when Charismatic won in 99...
Joe Cardello: 7:34 pm	the field bunched up very badly going into the first turn...
Joe Cardello: 7:34 pm	and a number of horses were virtually eliminated.
Joe Cardello: 7:34 pm	When the pace is fast however...
Joe Cardello: 7:35 pm	the field tends to gap out.
Joe Cardello: 7:35 pm	So that there's a lot less trouble and a lot less traffic...
Joe Cardello: 7:35 pm	that the closers have to move through.
Joe Cardello: 7:36 pm	THis race doesn't look like it's loaded with one-dimensional speedballs...
Joe Cardello: 7:36 pm	so i wouldn't expect the pace to be very fast.
Joe Cardello: 7:36 pm	But beyond that it's anybody's guess.
Pyrz.D: 7:36 pm	Any thoughts on Eye of The Tiger? Hes never run bad but dont know about his breeding going a 1 1/4
Joe Cardello: 7:37 pm	I wouldn't worry so much about his breeding...
Joe Cardello: 7:37 pm	it's his lack of ability at this level that would concern me more.
Joe Cardello: 7:37 pm	he earned his 2 highest Beyer fig's ...
Joe Cardello: 7:38 pm	at 6f and 6 1/2f. he is yet to show real ability around 2 turns.
Court: 7:38 pm	Does Lone Star Sky have any right to be in the field?
Joe Cardello: 7:39 pm	This is America - he has a right to be in the field.
Joe Cardello: 7:39 pm	And just like DD, this horse is not completely impossible to pick up a small share.
Joe Cardello: 7:39 pm	Most likely a very small share - but it's the Derby - why not?
Voltoni: 7:39 pm	When you add up the probabilities that Empire Maker either 1) has a bad trip in a field of 17, 2) doesn`t fire, or 3) one of 16 others runs exceptionally, should he really be lower than 2-1?
Joe Cardello: 7:40 pm	PErsonally, i don't think he deserves to be less than 2-1.
Joe Cardello: 7:40 pm	Not that I don't think he deserves to be favorite...
Joe Cardello: 7:40 pm	but this is the Derby - it's an unfamiliar distance - 17 horses...
Joe Cardello: 7:41 pm	have a marked tendency to get in each other's way.
Joe Cardello: 7:41 pm	And favorites have, as we all know, such a poor record the last 25 years or so.
Joe Cardello: 7:41 pm	But I certainly think he has accomplished the most -
Joe Cardello: 7:41 pm	and is a very deserving favorite.
Chris.Grabowski: 7:42 pm	With Funny Cide`s 11pt increase, isn`t he likely to run the same figure or worse?
Joe Cardello: 7:42 pm	My guess...
Joe Cardello: 7:42 pm	is that he will run worse.
Joe Cardello: 7:42 pm	Out of 14 horses in the last decade...
Joe Cardello: 7:42 pm	who ran a 110 or higher in their final prep for the Derby...
Joe Cardello: 7:43 pm	11 of those horses ran worse at CD.
Joe Cardello: 7:43 pm	Many of them ran much worse.
Joe Cardello: 7:43 pm	It's unusual - this year we have 3 horses...
Joe Cardello: 7:43 pm	who have run 110 or above just before the Derby.
Joe Cardello: 7:44 pm	In my opinion, 10MW and EM are more likely to run well again...
Joe Cardello: 7:44 pm	and Funny Cide is less likely to do so....
Joe Cardello: 7:44 pm	but that's just one man's opinion.
midlearth: 7:44 pm	Tell us the throw out horses because of speed figures..I would imagine that leaves us 5 horses of winning 7 of hitting the board
Joe Cardello: 7:44 pm	I would throw out:
Joe Cardello: 7:45 pm	Eye of the TIger...
Joe Cardello: 7:45 pm	10 cents a shine...
Joe Cardello: 7:45 pm	Domistic DIspute and Lone Star Sky...
Joe Cardello: 7:45 pm	although as I said earlier...
Joe Cardello: 7:45 pm	they are not completely out of the realm of possiblity.
Joe Cardello: 7:45 pm	for tri's and superfectas.
Joe Cardello: 7:46 pm	And I would leave out - and i say this with some trepidation...
Joe Cardello: 7:46 pm	Peace Rules...
Joe Cardello: 7:46 pm	and Outta Here...
Joe Cardello: 7:46 pm	Everybody else I could see as a possible use in exotics.
Dibbsndubbs: 7:47 pm	Joe, Who was your last winning selection in the derby?
Joe Cardello: 7:47 pm	I'll have to think for a minute....
Joe Cardello: 7:48 pm	FuPeg was my top choice..
Joe Cardello: 7:48 pm	I liked Silver Charm...
Joe Cardello: 7:48 pm	and that's about it.
Joe Cardello: 7:48 pm	Unfortunately, those probably the 2 shortest prices...
Joe Cardello: 7:48 pm	for Derby winners in the last decade.
Joe Cardello: 7:48 pm	The Derby is the most difficult race of the year to handicap.
Joe Cardello: 7:49 pm	But it's an event.
Joe Cardello: 7:49 pm	It's a spectacle... it's racing
Joe Cardello: 7:49 pm	racing's finest hour.
Joe Cardello: 7:49 pm	And it's required of all of us - as racing fans - to have an opinion.
Joe Cardello: 7:49 pm	THat's part of the charm of the derby.
slick: 7:50 pm	how about the 9 pound pick up for Ten Most Wanted
Joe Cardello: 7:50 pm	I don't really think about weight in this race.
nonnyboy: 7:50 pm	Joe , if you had to pick one longshot in this field , who would you choose
Joe Cardello: 7:51 pm	Considering the price of EM...
Joe Cardello: 7:51 pm	could be very short...
Joe Cardello: 7:51 pm	there are going to be some very talented horses who are going to be much bigger prices than they should be.
Joe Cardello: 7:51 pm	My guesses would be...
Joe Cardello: 7:51 pm	Indian Express
Joe Cardello: 7:52 pm	would probably be in the 10-1 to 12-1 range...
Joe Cardello: 7:52 pm	and for real bombs...
Joe Cardello: 7:52 pm	Supah Blitz
Joe Cardello: 7:52 pm	and
Joe Cardello: 7:52 pm	Brancusi
dukedom: 7:53 pm	brittany spears or jan rushton?
Joe Cardello: 7:53 pm	Jan Rushton!
Joe Cardello: 7:53 pm	Hands down.
whit: 7:54 pm	Wouldn`t you argue that the Florida Derby and the Wood were possibly the two weakest preps? To me, EM just hasn`t beaten or accomplished enough to deserve 8-5 or 9-5.
Joe Cardello: 7:54 pm	I agree that the Fl Derby field was not that strong...
Joe Cardello: 7:54 pm	and that EM that day was basically running against the clock.
Joe Cardello: 7:55 pm	But i would not say the same thing about the Wood...
Joe Cardello: 7:55 pm	Funny Cide ran a championship caliber race that day.
Joe Cardello: 7:55 pm	And you cannot deny that they beyer fig's of both those races...
Joe Cardello: 7:55 pm	were very impressive and well above average...
Joe Cardello: 7:55 pm	for 3YO prep races at this time of year.
Joe Cardello: 7:56 pm	However, it is concievable that some of EM's immature habits...
Joe Cardello: 7:56 pm	could hamper his chances in a very crowded and contentious field...
Joe Cardello: 7:56 pm	especially if he should take any kind of misstep...
Joe Cardello: 7:56 pm	either breaking slowly...
Joe Cardello: 7:57 pm	or getting into some kind of traffic.
Joe Cardello: 7:57 pm	Then perhaps his lack of experience under real pressure...
Joe Cardello: 7:57 pm	might begin to tell.
pedro: 7:57 pm	Are you aware of any track biases at CD during this meet?
Joe Cardello: 7:57 pm	It really doesn't matter what the bias has been so far at CD...
Joe Cardello: 7:58 pm	b/c the track will obviously be worked on intensively for Fri and Sat's cards.
Joe Cardello: 7:58 pm	What you want to follow is the races on Friday...
Joe Cardello: 7:58 pm	most most especially the dirt races on the card before the Derby.
J.EB.E: 7:58 pm	Joe, if you were playing a superfecta,what 4 do you like the best
Joe Cardello: 7:59 pm	Four guesses...
Joe Cardello: 7:59 pm	10 most wanted
Joe Cardello: 7:59 pm	Indian express
Joe Cardello: 7:59 pm	Empire Maker
Joe Cardello: 7:59 pm	and...
Joe Cardello: 7:59 pm	the fourth horse of your choice.
nonnyboy: 8:00 pm	do you consider picks based on trainers and jockeys
Joe Cardello: 8:00 pm	I do think you have to pay attention to trainers in the Derby...
Joe Cardello: 8:00 pm	it's no accident that a certain few trainers tend to win this race...
Joe Cardello: 8:01 pm	much more often than newcomers.
Joe Cardello: 8:01 pm	I'm particularly thinking of Baffert and Lewis because this is their TV advertising...
Joe Cardello: 8:01 pm	It's fundamental to the way they operate.
Joe Cardello: 8:01 pm	That they get maximum exposure on TV...
Joe Cardello: 8:02 pm	for the few remaining celebrity horse races that the racing world has left.
Joe Cardello: 8:02 pm	They point for this, they buy horses to run in this race...
Joe Cardello: 8:02 pm	they cultivate owner who want to run in this race...
Joe Cardello: 8:02 pm	so they most often win this race.
GOBlonde: 8:03 pm	Can you explain the difference between the AXCis/Equibase speed figures and the Beyer figures for the Illinois Derby and the Wood Memorial(AXCIS=98 for Ten Most Wanted vs 92 for Empire Maker and Beyer 110 for Ten Most Wanted vs 111 for Empire Maker)?
Joe Cardello: 8:03 pm	You're opening up a whole can of worms here...
Joe Cardello: 8:03 pm	Different people making speed fig's for the same races
Joe Cardello: 8:04 pm	frequently have disagreements - even serious disagreements.
Joe Cardello: 8:04 pm	I know some people - even some columnists - have questioned the Beyer figure for the IL Derby.
Joe Cardello: 8:04 pm	But I think it's legit...
Joe Cardello: 8:04 pm	and i have no problem handicapping on that basis.
Joe Cardello: 8:04 pm	Good luck to all...
Joe Cardello: 8:05 pm	and to all a good night!
DRF_WEBGRP: 8:05 pm	Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Kentucky Derby!
DRF_WEBGRP: 8:05 pm	We will be posting a transcript of tonight's chat later this evening in the DRF.com Kentucky Derby section.
DRF_WEBGRP: 8:05 pm	In the words of the great Stanley Bergstein, good night all.