DRF.com Kentucky Derby Chat with Andy Beyer 4/22/2003 7:00 pm - 8:04 pm
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jmhoro01:
7:00 pm | What do you make of the slow final furlongs turned in by Derby contenders in the last rounds of prep races?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:00 pm | I thought the slow finish of the Santa Anita Derby was really significant; the top 3 horses were all falling apart. I'd be dubious about their ability to get 1 1/4 miles. In general, though, slow final fractions can be a little deceptive. When the early fractions are superfast (as at Oaklawn) the final fraction is likely to be slow.
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shoes:
7:00 pm | Please comment on the Ill Derby winner, Beyer, final time and winner`s style
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:02 pm | When we made the figure of 110, I was initially disbelieving, because the field was a pretty weak one going into the race. But every bit of evidence suggested that the figure was legit; the variant for the day was consistent, and there were big gaps in the field. Because of the figure, I think Ten Most Wanted has to be considered a strong contender.
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DocLivingston:
7:02 pm | Andy, what is your take on the Wood Memorial? Was Empire Maker really just toying with Funny Cide?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:02 pm | I thought he was. Frankel said before the race he wanted an easy race for his horse, and Bailey was following instructions.
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DocLivingston:
7:02 pm | Andy how do you feel about Atswhatimtalknbout? Will the Blinkers wake this horse up?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:04 pm | Blinkers are irrelevant. The fact that no horse has won the Derby in a century without racing at 2 is a relevant statistic to me. 'Ats' was trying to cram too much preparation into to short a time; I thought this would surely catch up with him in the Derby, but it caught up with him at Santa Anita. I think they're making a mistake in running him after that poor showing.
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Christopher:
7:04 pm | Was the Arkansas Derby a fluke? Sir Cherokee did run his final eight in 11 3/5. Your thoughts?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:06 pm | Sir Cherokee's move was really impressive--the kind of move that frequently wins the Kentucky Derby. Everybody says that it was a product of the hot pace, but the leaders weren't collapsing; the pacesetters were still around at the finish and nobody else was coming from far behind. But that performance came from out of the blue and I have no idea whether it was a one-shot phenomenon. I'd al...
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jayroe:
7:06 pm | What do you think of Funny Cide`s chances in the Derby?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:07 pm | Based on what we saw in the Wood, I can't see him turning the tables on Empire Maker. And I can't see a son of Distorted Humor being effective at 1 1/4 miles. But he does have one of the strongest figures in the field, so I guess I can't throw him out of the exotics.
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caggo:
7:07 pm | How do you evaluate a horse like Peace Rules whose wins are all clear on the lead?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:08 pm | His race in Louisiana was fine, but I didn't like his Blue Grass. He got a clear lead, luckily, on a track with a strong rail-favoring, speed-favoring bias. Under those circumstances he's supposed to run the figure of his life, but he only go t a 104.
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Dunbar:
7:09 pm | Do you think Scrimshaw`s weak Beyer of 99 (Saturday) puts him in the 2nd tier of contenders?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:10 pm | Lukas would really have to work some magic to make this one win. When he pulled off the Lexington/Derby coup with Charismatic, he had the co-best figure in the race, a 108. Not only was his figure weak Saturday, but he had a pretty soft trip, sitting on the rail all the way and easing past a tired leader. Lukas has fooled us before, but not this time, I think.
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Max:
7:10 pm | Which horses do you feel can be eliminated based on distance limitations?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:11 pm | Kafwain, Funny Cide and Sir Cherokee are all by sires who were sprinters. Horses with pedigrees like theirs often look very good up to 1 1/8 miles, but the transition from 9 to 10 furlongs is a killer.
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FuriousFreen:
7:12 pm | Of the horses that have shown dramatic recent improvement - such as Ten Most Wanted, Sir Cherokee, and Funny Cide - who is most likely to make another step forward in the Derby?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:13 pm | If we knew for sure who was going to improve on the first Saturday in May, picking the winner would be a lot easier than it is. I suppose a believer in the bounce theory could argue that all three of them could bounce after career-best speed figures in their last starts. Because he is the best bred horse for the distance, Ten Most Wanted strikes me as the one most likely to run a big race ag...
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_.C.trackman:
7:14 pm | why eliminate kafwain?....isnt he a dual qualifer??
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:15 pm | If Kafwain qualifies under the Dosage System, it's yet another proof that Dosage is a crock. This horse has absolutely no chance of getting 1 1/4 miles. I think even Baffert knows it.
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TP:
7:15 pm | Do you think that Buddy Gill is for real? His only two bad races came on off-tracks.
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:16 pm | Ever since Mullins started training him he's done everything right. After 3 straight stakes wins he's got to be considered "for real."
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tcube:
7:16 pm | Have you ever considered computing a Beyer late pace figure?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:18 pm | I have experimented with pace figures for my personal use, but I don't find them reliable enough to publish. There are a lot of pitfalls involved, not the least of which is the fact that we don't have precise clockings for the horses behind the winner of a race. When you're using a crude rule of thumb like one length=one fifths of a second, you just can't be precise about pace.
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OZZ0868:
7:18 pm | What do you think of Offlee Wild`s chances? I was very impressed with his early winter victory at Gulfstream, and I think he`s finally coming around after his illness.
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:19 pm | I can't see him. He won in Florida with a very weak figure; in the Blue Grass he had a fairly easy rail trip and still was soundly beaten. He's going to have to come around pretty dramatically to improve 10 or more lengths by the Derby.
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omar:
7:20 pm | Do Indian Express`s blistering fractions in the Santa Anita make up for the slow finish?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:21 pm | He ran a very good race, setting that hot pace and still hanging around at the finish. I'd forgive the slow late fraction considering how much pressure he was under early. But I question whether he has enough overall preparation for the Derby. After all, this is a horse who has been beyond 6 1/2 furlongs only once in his brief career.
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TheGooch:
7:22 pm | Empire Maker deserves to be the pre-race favorite, but what do you think fair odds should be?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:24 pm | I'll say this: I don't think he deserves to be the overwhelming favorite as most oddsmakers think he will be. What, really, has he done to merit being the shortest-priced Derby favorite in years? He has won two stakes, against moderate competiton, with speed figures that are respectable but not exceptional. I think 2 to 1 might be a realistic price.
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togaman:
7:24 pm | You mentioned that you feel Ten Most Wanted is a strong contender, do you think carrying more weight than he did in the Illinois will be a factor?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:25 pm | I'm not a weight guy. There are so many factors in the Derby that are so much more significant that this doesn't enter into my calculations.
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JOCK_TALK:
7:25 pm | is Brancusi moving toward the right direction on derby day? he seems like he`s putting it all together now
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:26 pm | You could make a longshot case for him. I thought he ran OK chasing the pace from the outside in California, and he was chasing Peace Rules from the outside at Keeneland while Peace Rules was on the rail. He's the kind of horse you can throw into your superfectas at 50 to 1.
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Derby.Racer:
7:27 pm | What about Dynever?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:28 pm | The best 3-year-old in America, maybe. He hasn't run a big figure yet, but he has been so visually impressive that I like him as a racehorse as much as anybody in the Derby lineup. Clement is managing him very smartly, too.
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Pyrz1:
7:28 pm | What is your opinion of Outta Here as a longshot ? He ran some nice races lat year and then winning Delta Downsrace then off to D ubai and now the Derby?ubai
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:29 pm | His US races weren't so great from the fig standpoint, and there is such a history of horses running poorly after the trip to Dubai--even very good horses--that I'd say he is a safe elimination.
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bullish:
7:29 pm | With all of the defections along the way, do you see the Derby this year as one of the poorer betting Derbys in past years in terms of value?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:30 pm | The defections have dimiished the race's quality--I sure wish Vindication and Toccet had stayed sound. But as for value, I can't say. If Empire Maker wins at 6 to 5, there's no value.
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JOCK_TALK:
7:31 pm | What do you think the pace of this years derby will be? I count six or seven horses that want to be right on the pace but I don`t not see a one demensional speed horse.
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:33 pm | I'm going to wait till the entries are drawn and post positions are decided and then look at the race from the pace standpoint. I learned a lesson last year. Like most people, I had it in my brain that there was going to be a lot of speed in the race, as there always is, and that War Emblem couldnt' possibility duplicate his big Illinois Derby win. With hindsight, I looked at the race and r...
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:34 pm | and saw that there wasn't so much speed, that only Proud Citizen was also committed to go for the lead. So don't make a premature judgment about pace. Wait and see what the whole field looks like.
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TP:
7:35 pm | What are your feelings about a gelding not winning the Kentucky Derby for 100+ years? Is it am important statistic in your mind, especially this year?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:38 pm | This is a fluky statistic. Obviously, there is a reason that geldings don't often win the Derby, because owners usuallydon't geld their best prospects. But there's no reason that this historical precedent should make any difference to Buddy Gil or Funny Cide. This is a bit of history totally different from the fact that no horsein a century has won the Derby without racing at 2. That stat...
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:38 pm | That statistic proves that horses need the proper experience to win the Derby, and it's very relevant.
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COLUMBUSJOHN:
7:38 pm | Other than his maiden race, Empire Maker has not seen a field larger than 8. Will the large derby field affect his ability to get into good position and make him a vulnerable favorite?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:39 pm | Not many of them have seen a field of 20. He seems to be a fairly tractable horse, and he's got Jerry Bailey, so I don't think field size is a relevant issue for him.
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BNL:
7:40 pm | Why did the running time of the Cal Derby (1 1/8 mi 1:47 and change) at BM, the fastest 1/1/8 time recorded by any 3 year old thus far, earn such a low speed figure?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:40 pm | Because the track was so fast. That's why we make speed figures--to take into account the condition of the racing surface.
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chops:
7:41 pm | What are fair win odds for Ten Most Wanted
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:42 pm | I think he'd be in the vicinity of 8 to 1 or so, and I think that would be a square price for a horse with the second-best figure.
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gino:
7:42 pm | Was Trust n Luck just a strong 2yo -is he just a sprinter-or is he just a good allowance type horse?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:44 pm | With his pedigree--he's by Montbrook--he is really cut out to be a sprinter/miler type. He ran so big in the Fountain of Youth when everybody else took back and he got an unpressured lead, but his distance shortcomings have really shown in his last two races.
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Saarland.Fan:
7:44 pm | Andy..Do you feel that the field number should be reduced in the Derby to lets say 16 to help prevent some of the dreamers from causing uneccessary traffic in the race
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:46 pm | I think a limit of 16 would be reasonable. The 20-horse field does create such a potential for trouble and fluky results that you'd probably get a truer race with a limit of 16. Would the Derby really be poored without a horse like Outta Here?
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bancroft54:
7:46 pm | Do you have any thoughts on the Kentuckey Oaks?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:47 pm | I bet Lady Tak in the Oaks future book and I like my position now after Storm Flag Flying to beat the other day. I'm usually not swayed by seeing horses win races easily, but she won her race in Louisiana under a triple hammerlock. In the Ashland, she had to come wide on a very biased rail favoring track while the winner hugged the rail.
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birdly:
7:48 pm | Do you think it`s wise for a jockey to "leave something in the horse`s tank" as Bailey did in the Wood? I usually prefer horses who have been tested.
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:50 pm | Empire Maker certainly has had his share of tests before the Wood; Frankel undoubtedly knows best when he wanted the horse to have a relatively easy race. Besides, there's quite a history of horses winning the Derby after not-so-hot efforts in their last prep race, so an easy run surely has its virtues.
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Pyrz1:
7:51 pm | Ten Cents A Shine Ran second to Soto at Churchill as 2 yera old if he goes in Derby is he a legit longshot since hes proven over track?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:51 pm | That Kentucky Jockey Club race last year was a real phony; all of the speed horses collapsed, and made the closers--such as Ten Cents A Shine--look much better than they are.
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drumbo:
7:52 pm | If all track bias` from the prep races were fairly even and we threw them out, it looks like Sir Cherokee has the best raw time at 1 1/8th. Doesn`t this make him VERY playable
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:53 pm | You can't look at raw times; you have to take the condition of the track into account. Sir Cherokee is certainly OK, but he's still a notch below the top ones.
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midlearth:
7:53 pm | Do you use the "sheets" for your personal handicapping
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:53 pm | You've got to be kidding.
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Kornheiser.Fan:
7:53 pm | Andy, don`t you think that Baffert mismanaged Domestic Dispute? He had the layoff that BB forgot to give Kafwain, and it seems his pedigree BEGS for 10f?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:55 pm | I think Domestic Dispute's failings are his own, and not Baffert's. He keeps trying to make that big run on the turn and then peters out; regardless of his pedigree, he certainly doesn't act like a 10f horse.
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JS:
7:55 pm | Sounds like you really like Empire Maker. At this point how do you think he stacks up against a couple of other Derby Favorites, namely FuPeg an Point Given?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:57 pm | I think he's proved himself much less than the others. Point Given had established himself as a top 2-year-old and beaten most of the good horses around. FuPeg's Wood was very impressive. I'm not knocking Empire Maker, but he really hasn't beaten a good field yet. And his speed figures are not superstar material, not yet at least.
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greek310:
7:57 pm | I know that horses with the top last out Beyer fig. win routes at about a 25.4% clip. Does this stat hold true for Derbies for which figs are available?
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ANDY_BEYER:
7:58 pm | I wish I were smart enough to have bet the top last out fig in the Derby every year instead of trying to do clever handicapping. The winners include War Emblem, Charismatic (co-fig) and Lil E. Tee (co-fig).
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DUKE:
7:59 pm | The PBS Seabiscuit documentary showed that horse racing served a purpose as a gambling vise and was w/o competition in those days, With the many outlets for gambling, do you think we are the last generation to view the sport?
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ANDY_BEYER:
8:00 pm | I certainly hope not. We're not going to have those crowds of 50,000 on a regular basis, but with simulcasting, in-home betting, telephone betting, etc. I hope the game still has a future.
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So.Cal.Al:
8:00 pm | Andy, I an hour with you is certainly not enough time. With that being said who are your top three choices for the Kentucky Derby if the race were run today?
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ANDY_BEYER:
8:02 pm | I don't want to commit myself until I see the field in its final form. But right now I feel torn; Empire Maker is a logical horse, of course, but I think he's being way overhyped and will accordingly be very undervalued. Ten Most Wanted looks like the most credible contender.
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ANDY_BEYER:
8:02 pm | Thanks for joining us. Have a great Derby, everybody.
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DRF_WEBGRP:
8:03 pm | Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Kentucky Derby!
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DRF_WEBGRP:
8:03 pm | Be sure to join us Friday evening from 7:00-8:00 pm Eastern for a chat with DRF's Steven Crist.
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DRF_WEBGRP:
8:03 pm | Join us on Wednesday, April 30 from 5:00-6:00 pm Eastern for live pill by pill updates of the Kentucky Derby post position draw. Just go to DRF.com!
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DRF_WEBGRP:
8:03 pm | Be sure to check out Speed to Spare (you didn't miss the giant ad to your right, did you?) - It's a new book by Joe Cardello that teaches you how to utilize Beyer Speed Figures to their full potential.
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DRF_WEBGRP:
8:03 pm | On Wednesday, April 30 at 7:00 pm EDT chat with Joe Cardello, author of Speed to Spare.
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DRF_WEBGRP:
8:03 pm | We will be posting a transcript of tonight's chat later this evening in the DRF.com Kentucky Derby section.
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DRF_WEBGRP:
8:04 pm | In the words of the great Stanley Bergstein, good night all.
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