Analysis (by Ron Gierkink)

Strengths: He loves the Big Apple: He won the nine-furlong Wood Memorial over champion 2-year-old War Pass, and is unbeaten in two starts at Belmont, both under Coa. He has run well when fresh, and has had five weeks off since his troubled fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (Birdstone, eighth in the 2004 Derby, won the Belmont over Smarty Jones after skipping the Preakness). He possesses ample stamina on the dam’s side of his pedigree, and his broodmare sire, Sunday Silence, was second in the Belmont. His hot Canadian owner has the probable favorite for the June 22 Queen’s Plate at Woodbine, Not Bourbon.

Weaknesses: He has never cracked 100 on the Beyer Speed Figure scale. His May 20 work, a half-mile in 46.80, was a little too fast, and his six-furlong breeze in 1:18.80 on May 26 was much slower than what his trainer had wanted. The average win distance of his sire’s progeny is just 6.7 furlongs.

Strategy: Jockey Eibar Coa might try to bury him in behind horses, in a stalking position or somewhere in mid-pack, before making his move. He won both the Wood Memorial and Futurity Stakes after coming up the rail, and an inside trip may give him his best chance, assuming that the rail isn’t dead.

Value: He should be considered fair value at 20-1 or higher. He looks to be an excellent prospect for the bottom of trifecta and superfecta wagers.