| DAN_ILLMAN: | Hello everybody. I think we're ready to get started. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming to tonight's Belmont Stakes chat, we'll start with a question from SHELBYJ... |
| SHELBYJ: | Q: What do you think of Ritchey's training regimen with Alex? Will it help or hurt in the last 1/4 mile of the Belmont? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Good question. I can understand how you could see both sides. Will the extra training get him fit to go the distance? Or will it tire him out?... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I think that Ritchey has completely figured this horse out. I'm not concerned about the training regimen. I'm expecting Alex to be fit...as always. |
| horsesense: | Q: Afleet Alex's lifetime PP's indicate he has been able to overcome sprinter bloodlineson hte sire side. (AWD of sire 6.4). At what point in a horse's career does his performance convince handicappers that he has outrun his bloodlines? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | When you win a Classic race like the Preakness... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Seriously, you could break horses down into classifications of sprinters, milers, and stamina-types. AA is bred to be a miler on top, but has stamina on the bottom (Hawkster a 12 furlong horse).... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He had the pedigree, you just had to root it out a bit. These days, so many horses are bred for speed that most have trouble getting a distance... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | In that case, the horse with the most ability does best...at most any distance. |
| dutzman: | Q: What are the chances of Pinpoint getting loose on the lead? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | If you mean, grab the lead from the bell, slow the pace down to a crawl, and get brave, well, I can't see that happening... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | It wouldn't surprise me if he makes the front, but I think that |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | A. P. Arrow and Reverberate won't be too far behind. |
| THUMBMAN: | Q: Noticed Reveberate has Ribot in his dam's line, what do you think of his chances? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He's going to be the wiseguy horse, and will likely be an underlay. However, I think he has a great chance of winning this race... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He has the stamina pedigree. His sire won the Belmont, and has sired a Belmont winner. His dam is a half to the dam of BC FM Turf winner Soaring Softly... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He has the stamina. He just needs to relax early. He can be a bit headstrong. |
| Sunset_East: | Q: Southern Africa looks strong to me with a 96 speed & 4 wins + 2 place of career 9 - and nice odds. Do you agree? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He's a pretty talented horse. Remember that he was close to Declan's Moon and Giacomo last year. I think the connections have done a great job in... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | getting his confidence sky-high for this race by picking easy spots in his last 3 races... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He has good tactical speed as well. I will use him underneath, but he'll need to run faster to win this (Belmont Beyer Par is 107.33). |
| DrMax: | Q: Edgar Prado has brought home some big longshots in past recent Belmonts - Sarava (70-1), Birdstone (38-1), what do you think his chances are for doing it again this year on Indy Storm? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I like Indy Storm the best of the Zito horses, and will be using him on the bottom of my exotic wagers. He beat older allowance horses last time... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | and his confidence should be at an all-time high as well. He has the pedigree. His sire won the Belmont, and his dam is a full to Banshee Breeze. He's moving forward on figs so again I'll use him 'underneath.' |
| poeticjustiz2323: | Q: What is your opinion on the horse Watchmon? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I know he can get the distance... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Seriously, he hasn't run fast enough to threaten this field, and he couldn't beat N1X horses last time. He would be a surprise. |
| Stevie_the_Wiz: | Q: The Peter Pan went really fast should we assume those horses are to bounce ? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I think that the Beyer may be a bit inflated for the Peter Pan. They went really slow early, and picked it up late. In the case of Reverberate, I wasn't sure if he was 100% fit for the Peter Pan. He seemed... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | to be going up and down in the stretch, and was tired. The Belmont will be his 3rd start back, and he may have another big race in him. The same can be said for Chekhov in that it is his 3rd start of the form cycle. I don't think they'll bounce. |
| Artaxman: | Q: Dan. I thought Chekhov looked very short in the Peter Pan but a lot of people like him Saturday. I think he needs to improve dramamtically to win. What are your thoughts? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I think that he'll run well, but not well enough to win. He has a beautiful stride, and had trouble in the Peter Pan... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | (off slow, wide off slow pace). He is lightly-raced, and has plenty of upside potential in my opinion. He can certainly hit the board in the Belmont, but he's another that I will play on the bottom of tris, etc. |
| raleighmike: | Q: what do you think about that Zito had Andromeda's Hero in mind for the Belmont all along? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | A lot of folks will note that Zito is using the Birdstone pattern with AH (poor Derby, skipped Preakness, wins Belmont?). Remember that Birdstone had already proved... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | that he could win a Grade 1 race. AH has yet to live up to the hype. He can run all day long, but I just don't think he's fast enough to win this. |
| Felton: | Q: Hi Dan. The last two Belmonts have featured runaway Preakness winners who wound up losing. Will Afleet Alex suffer the same fate? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I've always thought that the 3 weeks between races coupled with the distance is enough to take the edge off of a horse that runs big in the Preakness. |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | If you want to make a case against Alex, then you could point to the fact that he has yet to reach back to back Beyers... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | and is now coming off a career top. On the other hand, this isn't the deepest of Belmonts. He could bounce and still win. He must be respected as a true contender, but I'm not taking 4-5 on him. |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | back to back 100+ Beyer, I mean. |
| unitas: | Q: Does this race seem to set up as a paceless affair, and if so, whom do you believe wll be setting the slow splits, and whose chances will be greatly diminished by this tactic? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I think that the pace will be moderate for the distance. I'm guessing that they will go in 47 or so to the half. I don't think that we'll have a suicide pace like the Derby... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | and I don't think it will be slow enough to benefit the frontrunners. If you think the pace will be slow, then Reverberate may benefit the most (get the jump on AA and Giacomo)... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Andromeda's Hero would likely be hindered by a slow pace. |
| grimey: | Q: Do you see Giacomo being up much closer to the pace than his last two races. |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Yes, I do. The pace will likely be slower so I think Giacomo will have no choice but to be closer to the pace. He is such a steady horse... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | he runs his usual 95-100 Beyer every time, and will probably do it again on Saturday. He may offer a bit of value if Reverberate... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | takes the wiseguy money. He is not out of this by a longshot. |
| YOUBETCHA: | Q: THE SUSPENSE IS KILLING ME. TOP 4 HORSES?????? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Top 4 horses: Reverberate, Afleet Alex, Giacomo, Southern Africa |
| lander1: | Q: Which horses will you throw out? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | The horses that won't be anywhere on any of my tickets are: Nolan's Cat, Pinpoint, A. P. Arrow, Watchmon, and Andromeda's Hero. |
| BurkeB: | Q: Who do you believe is the live longshot in the Belmont |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | There are several live longshots. If you think Reverberate is a longshot at 8-1, then he certainly fits the bill. Southern Africa, Chekhov, and Indy Storm also intrigue me at good odds. |
| LP: | Q: Dan Nolan's Cat was 4 lengths behind Noble Causeway 4/5 at G.P. Noble got jammed badly in the derby and ran flat. I see all these horses other then Afleet Alex and Giacomo being no better then Noble Causeway.Can he finish 2nd or 3rd behind Alex? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I guess anything can happen in the Belmont. I tell people all the time that the Belmont is a trap race for handicappers... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | The best horse doesn't necessarily win. Many times "The Test of the Champion" - that is - the 12 furlongs, beats the likely winner instead of the competition... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | That being said, Nolan's Cat couldn't beat A. P. Arrow in a maiden race last time out. He's hard to like in any of the top 4 slots. |
| derbyfritz_2: | Q: dan...that ap arrow ran quite a last quater in his last race..what do think ?? does DWL have this one ready.. |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Hopefully, DWL will have this one better prepared than Going Wild was in the Derby and Preakness...If you're a Lukas and Bailey fan, then you should toss 2 bucks on A. P. Arrow. He has a beautiful pedigree, but he lacks seasoning... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | and his Beyers are not in the league of the top contenders... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I'm tossing him. |
| txsctykd: | Q: Several winners of the Belmont all had Tomlinson figures above 300 except Point Given. Afleet Alex has a number of 253. How significant do you think this statistic is? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Different handicappers have different ways of analyzing the data. I don't really factor Tomlinsons into my handicapping. Watchmon has a 221 Tomlinson, and he won a 1 7/16 race... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | at GP. I'm going to go more with sheer ability than anything else. I guess it doesn't hurt if the Tomlinson is high... |
| Gio_Cigar: | Q: Hey Dan, Indy Storm hasn't been classed test yet. Can he pass that test saturday? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | You could argue that he was tested in the Louisiana Derby, and was found wanting at 35-1 behind High Limit (who ran last in the Ky. Derby)... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He may be a different animal now, however, and he was racing against the grain of a speed-favoring track at the FG. I think he'll run well. I don't think he'll win. |
| TITAN__: | Q: Lost in the Fog will have a new rider in the Riva Ridge , undercard of Belmont.. Will this make him vulnerable |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Perhaps. Then again, he may be so fast that all his new rider will have to do is hold on. In a case of a talented horse like Lost in the Fog, I don't think the jockey will make much of a difference. |
| Schmengie: | Q: Will you completely discount post position, as many are doing? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I'm not going to worry too much about the posts. The Belmont is a 12 furlong race, and the riders will have plenty of time to find good spots for their mounts. I don't think the posts will hurt or help anyone (unless there is a pronounced bias on Belmont day). |
| Stevie_the_Wiz: | Q: Artie Schiller unbeatable ? your thoughts |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He was supposedly unbeatable last time out at 3-5, and lost. There are some good horses in this field that will offer better value... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Quest Star and Meteor Storm come to mind...Artie is a logical contender, and a must-use on your pick 4 tickets, but he is hardly unbeatable. |
| Boknows: | Q: How much press do you feel one should believe when the promotion, "Giacomo vs Afleet Alex" , appears to leave out some very nice horses...Are the favorites a lock, or no? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | You shouldn't go by the hype. "Giacomo vs. Afleet Alex" is a marketing tool used to sell tickets. They both should run well, but don't forget Reverberate. |
| dutzman: | Q: Limehouse a single in the Pick 4? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Not for me, he isn't. I've never really thought of him as a nine furlong horse, and he'll be facing some good horses in Funny Cide, Evening Attire, Gygistar, etc. The Brooklyn is a tough race. It's hard to single anyone. |
| Al: | Q: What do you think of Smokume's chances in the True North? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He has a good chance at a good price. His last 2 Beyers fit well with this field, and he is trained by a masterful horseman. He loves Belmont as well. I'd think about using him if the price was right. |
| steve_mercieca: | Q: which of the 5 horses who have yet to break a 90 beyer most likely break into the belmont trifecta? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Indy Storm. |
| PIKEM_PIXIE: | Q: HOW WOULD YOU BET $50 ON THE BELMONT? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | $10 Win and Place Reverberate. $5 Exacta Box Reverberate, Afleet Alex, and Giacomo. More trying to grind out a profit than go for the big score with $50. |
| kjlklkl: | Q: Dan I think ap arrow can get a half in 49 and hang on to win by a length. Any chance? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Demand 50-1 if you envision that scenario. I can't see Pinpoint and Reverberate letting A. P. Arrow get away with a "Commendable" trip. |
| Dr__Fager: | Q: What would you say to the proposition that Lost In The Fog may well be the best 3 year old at Belmont Saturday? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I'd agree with you right now. It's close between Lost in the Fog and Afleet Alex. Saturday may sort them out. |
| horsesense: | Q: Dan, under what scenerio do you see giacomo 5th or worse? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | If the pace is extremely slow, then he may have too much to do when they start the real running. He is a grinder, and will need a bit of pace. He should get enough pace to avoid running 5th or worse. |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Next question, please. |
| itsawinna: | Q: Evening Attire seems to like a course with a little moisture-how do you like its chances? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He is a bit of an enigma. On Beyers, he fits beautifully with the Brooklyn field. He looked like he was beginning to feel his age a bit towards the end of last year, and it will be interesting to see if he can come back at top form off the long layoff. I'll use him, but will be wary. |
| Gio_Cigar: | Q: Ok Dan, whats your tri? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Reverberate - Afleet Alex - Giacomo. I'll probably box 'em, and then use horses like Indy Storm, Chekhov, and Southern Africa 'underneath' in some savers. |
| exit51: | Q: Thoughts on Rose |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He is obviously a talented, young rider. Maybe he didn't give Alex the best of rides in the BC Classic and Champagne, but he's shown great composure on the horse this year. He's good. No doubt about it, but he'll have to time it just right on Saturday... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | remember Kent D. and Stewart Elliott were non-New York jocks, and they moved a bit too soon. |
| B-Peezy: | Q: will afleet alex lateral this field if he has too? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | If by lateraling, you mean sweeping wide from off the pace, then, sure, why not? |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Belmont Stakes 137! |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Thanks for coming out, everybody. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | BELMONT STAKES DAY PAST PERFORMANCES: Full card past performances are on sale now! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | If you arrived late, we will be posting a transcript of tonight's chat within the hour in the DRF.com Belmont Stakes section. |
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| DRF_WebGrp: | The American Racing Manual 2005 - The official encyclopedia of Thoroughbred racing. Whether you're a handicapper, fan, owner, breeder, trainer or industry professional, The ARM 2005 is a must-have book for your horse racing library. On sale now in the DRF Press online bookstore. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | In the words of our good friend Stanley Bergstein, good night all. |
