| It comes down to Smarty versus 'Rock'
By NOEL MICHAELS
The 26-year wait for Thoroughbred racing's next Triple Crown winner may finally end on Saturday when Smarty Jones enters the starting gate for the 136th running of the Belmont Stakes as an overwhelming favorite. Smarty Jones was so impressive in winning both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, and has only eight overmatched and/or already vanquished rivals standing between him and immortality in the 1 1/2-mile race referred to as "The Test of the Champion."
While anything can always happen in horseracing, it would take a huge upset to keep Smarty Jones from winning, or at very least finishing second, in the Belmont Stakes. One horse in the field may jump up and beat him, but two doing so seems highly unlikely. Therefore, the key to betting the Belmont would be to find the one challenger who has the potential to beat Smarty Jones, or at least run second to complete the exacta and key the other exotics.
If, like me, you are rooting for Smarty Jones to win the Triple Crown, why bother to contradict yourself and bet against him just to find some value? After all, there was plenty of value in the Preakness exotics with Smarty Jones on top, and there can be value found there again if you pick the right second horse. To me, the most likely runner-up (or upsetter) in the Belmont is Rock Hard Ten. He, along with Smarty Jones, will be the key to my betting strategy as I try to cheer Smarty Jones home along with the majority of the 120,000 other fans expected at Belmont Park on Saturday.
Go Smarty Jones, and good luck to all.
Belmont Stakes - G1
Belmont Park - Race 11
1 1/2 miles, purse: $1,000,000
1) 9-Smarty Jones
2) 5-Rock Hard Ten
2) 8-Eddington
3) 4-Birdstone
Smarty Jones will go off at odds of 2-5 or less in the Belmont Stakes as he goes for the Triple Crown and tries to succeed where the last nine Kentucky Derby/Preakness winners have all failed. That certainly does not sound like the best betting proposition in the world, but as they like to say in racing, 'Better a short price than a long face'. Smarty Jones has already dominated most of his Belmont competition en route to his perfect 8-for-8 record. He easily beat Purge in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby before conquering both Birdstone and Master David in the Derby by 15 and 18 lengths, respectively. He then came back in the Preakness to beat two new shooters, Rock Hard Ten and Eddington, by roughly a dozen lengths. The other Belmont entrants, Caiman, Royal Assault, and Tap Dancer, look badly overmatched.
While there is always a chance that one of the horses who Smarty Jones has beaten could turn the tables on him with a vastly improved effort, an upset seems unlikely in this case since Smarty Jones has not proven himself to be a horse who ever throws in a clunker. He's undefeated so far, and that did not happen by accident. He's unbeaten because he's not only faster than his rivals, but also because he's more competitive, and more consistent than any horse he's faced so far or will face in the Belmont. Barring a bad ride, a horrible trip, or some unforseen mishap, Smarty Jones should become racing's 12th Triple Crown winner on Saturday, and the rest of the field will only be running for second place.
The Belmont entrant with the best chance to spoil the Smarty party is Rock Hard Ten, who still must make up 11 1/2 lengths on Smarty Jones if he hopes to deny him the Triple Crown. Rock Hard Ten is a talented horse who just now might have enough seasoning to truly come into his own in what will be his fifth career race. Rock Hard Ten, an enormous horse at 17+ hands, should benefit from Belmont Park's wide sweeping turns. And unlike Smarty Jones who has never raced or trained at Belmont Park, Rock Hard Ten has already shown an affinity for the Belmont surface in workouts there the last two weeks. Rock Hard Ten had an eternity - 6 weeks - between races heading into the Preakness, but he now should be fully cranked for the Belmont. If anyone can deny Smarty Jones, or at least complete the exacta, it's Rock Hard Ten.
Eddington has been a good but overrated horse all spring, thanks in large part to jockey Jerry Bailey's outspoken and unwavering confidence in the horse who has never been better than 3rd in a stakes race this far. Eddington sucked-up for third in the Preakness, and will need to show an added dimension of tactical speed if he hopes to improve in the Belmont because this race is traditionally not a race that favors deep closers. On the plus side, Eddington is expected to benefit from the Belmont's 1 1/2-mile distance and should be running late which will increase his chances of hitting the board. Remember, the Preakness trifecta with Eddington third behind Smarty Jones and Rock Hard Ten paid a generous $177.20. Bettors could do a lot worse than that with an identical finish in the Belmont.
The most interesting of all the Belmont longshots is Birdstone, who along with fellow Derby also-ran Master David seems capable of far better than he showed at Churchill Downs. Birdstone won the Grade 1 Champagne on this track last year making him the only Grade 1 winner in the field besides Smarty Jones. He is also the only horse besides Purge who's won on this track. Birdstone, who should be 30-1, is preferred over Purge, who will be 10-1 despite losing to Smarty Jones twice in a row in Arkansas earlier this year and never winning a two-turn race in his career.
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