| Dunbar: | Q: Andy, last year Funny Cide took Beyers of 110, 109, and 114 into the Belmont. Smarty will take Beyers of 107, 107, and 118. That looks comparable to me. Why is everyone so much more excited about this horse? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I think there's a big difference. First, Funny Cide was (relatively speaking) a flash in the pan while Smarty has a perfect record. More important, most handicappers believed that Empire Maker was every bit as good as Funny Cide, and that there were others in the field who could beat him. Smarty appears much more dominant in relation to his competition. |
| fish100198: | Q: Will Purge set the pace & your opinion on his chances? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | The pace is a big question mark in this race. Pletcher has been saying, emphatically, that he wants to try a new tactic and sit behind Smarty; the colt learned to rate when he won the Peter Pan. If this is true, I think Smarty will have no choice but to take the lead. And there's nothing wrong with that. |
| davy: | Q: Mr. Beyer, What do you think of Birdstone`s chances? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I guess I put the kiss of death on him when I made him my long-range Kentucky Derby pick last February. How can he win off his recent form? I think Nick Zito is making a mistake persevering with him in a spot like this. |
| bluestream: | Q: Should Elliot just go ahead and send Smart Jones through a 48 half? He has basically been running that and finishing very well, better than any of his opponents anyway. |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Why not? If Purge takes back, he may well get away with a half in 50. In any event, when you take the best horse in the field and get him loose on the lead in a sane pace, he's supposed to win. |
| RacingForecast: | Q: Smarty Jones has the LOWESTTomlinson Distance rating. Does that mean anything to you? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | There is no question that Smarty's pedigree is shaky from the standpoint of stamina (as I wrote in Thursday's DRF.) That's one of the reasons I tended to dismiss him in the Derby. But he mocked his bloodlines at 1 1/4 miles, and I suppose he is enough of a freak that he can do it at 1 1/2. But this is the one respect in which he seems vulnerable. |
| saratogabill: | Q: I understand Rock Hard Ten has some ability, but I thhink the hype around him is way out of line with his accomplishments. I think the value is if he runs third or worse behind Smarty. But who runs second? I`m having a hard time with that part. Your thoughts? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I agree in the sense that he's never run a very good figure, but Rock Hard Ten has been behind the 8-ball trying to play catch-up all spring. He was at a big disadvantage running in the SA Derby with only 2 careers starts, and he had no shot in the Preakness running within only 3 career starts, yet he managed to finish second. With his pedigree he ought to handle the distance, and he figures to improve with experience, so I don't think I'd take a stand and throw him out of the exacta. |
| woody1: | Q: I`ve been betting Master David since he ran in the Sham, should I keep betting him in the Belmont? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | No. |
| Jack: | Q: Did Smarty Jones peak in the Preakness? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I don't know; I guess I'd be surprised if he runs a figure of 118 again, considering the longer distance of the Belmont. But even if he regresses he's still got a big edge over the rest of the field. |
| Stone: | Q: I read your recent article on the changing face of breeding...as a breeder, would you still find it worthwhile to go to quality stamina sires like Dynaformer over a sprint stallion with a solid mare? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Sure. I like Dynaformer and was one of the charter members of the Dynever fan club. But if I were in the business I'd breed to Dynaformer if I were planning to run the colt myself and were prepared to wait for him to mature. As a commercial proposition, breeding to the sprint sires seems much smarter. |
| Matt_C: | Q: Eddington & Rock Hard Ten have nice pedigree, but neither has improved a step all year despite stretching out. They are still running high 90`s/low 100`s Beyers. Is there any reason to expect improvement now? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I can't make a case for Eddington--his only decent stakes performances were in slow races. But as I said earlier, I think that Rock Hard Ten has been at a significant disadvantage in all his races, in terms of experience. There's no reason that he can't develop into a top class horse. |
| not_an_expert: | Q: Andy, do you think first Lasix and second Lasix helped Smarty Jones win his last two? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I don't know, but years of experience tells us that Lasix never hurts. |
| craftylord: | Q: In past Belmont Stakes, why have several horses with inferior Beyers won or placed? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Because running 1 1/2 miles is a different game from shorter distances. Plenty of good horses have given sub-par performances when they stretch out, and some improve sharply (e.g., Sarava.) |
| ricky: | Q: Does Caiman have a chance in the Belmont? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | He's 29 points behind Smarty Jones on the figures, so I' d have to say no. |
| Ponies_n_Poker: | Q: I plan on betting a 5 horse triple box, sans Smarty Jones. I want to throw in one of the Zito horses. Which one has a better shot of hitting the board? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Can I book this? |
| DanielSong39: | Q: According to the Beyer Speed figures, Smarty Jones is far and away the best 3-year-old - but NOT the best horse in the country. Do the numbers lie? Or are Pleasantly Perfect, Medaglia D`Oro, and Southern Image all superior horses? |
| Titan: | Q: Any chance of Tap Dancer hitting board or being in Superfecta ? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I can't see it. His figs are as weak as Caiman's. |
| bluestream: | Q: I have never been too impressed with Master David, but now that you say he has no chance, should we all include him in exotics? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I think he'll be the worst value in the race. I don't believe anybody would give him a second glance if he weren't trained by Frankel. But Frankel said today that he entered the horse in the race after hearing that Allen Jerkens said that he liked Master David to win. |
| RCRES: | Q: How does the 9 hole help or hurt smarty? I figure it almost gaurentees that he gets a stalking role and wont be the pacesetter. |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I don't think the post matters much. From No. 9 Elliott willl have the option of seeing what Purge is going to do, but if Purge takes back, I don't see what else Elliott can do but go the lead. You don't want to get too cute with the best horse. |
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| SmartyWho: | Q: This may be inaccurate but I heard someone quote you as saying that Smarty Jones is the second fastest horse is the last 80 years. I was wondering if you said that and how you justify it. His Derby Time alone was the slowest in 15 years. |
| ANDY_BEYER: | No, I never said that. Since we've been publishing our figures in the Daily Racing Form, he shares the fastest figure in a Triple Crown race (with Silver Charm's Preakness, also a 118.) But he's certainly not in the Secretariat/Count Fleet stratosphere. |
| gallantbob: | Q: With Smarty in the nine, are there any riders with enough brass and enough horse to "race-ride" a little, the way Creme Fraiche won two Gold Cups over Turkoman and Java Gold? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I don't see anybody in the race with real speed besides Smarty and Purse. Maybe Master David or Eddington. But if all the logical horses take back, and they're going the first quarter in 25 seconds or slower, anybody who hustles could get to the lead. But I don't see that happening. I think Smarty will be ready to go to the front. |
| woody1: | Q: Will you tell us your 3 horses to box for the trifecta? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | II'm afraid I don't see any good gambling opportunities in this race. Besides Smarty, the only two horses who have a plausible chance are Rock Hard Ten and Purge, and they're the second and third choices. I see no value anywhere. |
| derbyfritz: | Q: andy ..that sirbarton race looks real slow compared to the preakness...does royal assault have a chance in the belmont? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | You're right, that was a terrible race. This horse couldn't even win in two tries in N1X allowance company. I don't know what he's doing in the race. |
| walter: | Q: Can you comment on SJ`s Rebel figure? A couple other figure makers have questioned it |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Both of his Arkansas races were a little ambiguous, and with the benefit of hindsight (particularly after Purge's giant win in New York) I think they could have been a little higher. This is not an exact science. |
| theshot: | Q: Does Smarty have any flaws? Any at all? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | We certainly haven't seen any yet. The one potential flaw that could show up in the Belmont is the fact that he's not bred for the distance. |
| sloppy_track: | Q: Andy: Im an avid Pick 6 player.. is Smarty worthy of a single or should I spread this race ? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Obviously, every pick six player likes to take a shot against a big favorite like this, but I certainly would not want to spend much money by going too deep against him. If you must take a shot, don't use anybody but Rock Hard Ten and Purge. |
| beyeronfire: | Q: We still have not seen "Smarty" in a true head to head battle in the stretch...how do you think he will react if tested in this way? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I thought that the way he hooked Lion Heart in the Derby and immediately overpowered him was pretty impressive. Lion Heart had shown previously that he's a real battler, yet Smarty destroyed him. |
| ret: | Q: Only 1930 Gallant Fox & 1973 Secretariat have been triple crown winners with a Republican President in office. Isn`t Smarty Jones bucking odds of 9-2 |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I don't think that there's enough data here to constitute a powerful trend. |
| pittsburgh_gal: | Q: A lot of people have commented that Smarty Jones is the best of a very weak crop. What are your thoughts on this group of 3 year olds? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I'd have to rate it an average crop. Second of June and Read the Footnotes looked like outstanding horses early in the spring; The Cliff's Edge was pretty impressive in the Blue Grass. But Smarty won't have proved himself fully by dominating the bunch in the Triple Crown series. He still has to pass his test against older horses before we start mentioning him in the same breath with Secretariat. |
| bobbyt: | Q: the belmont`s been done to death-----what do you think about the current state of at home racing--youbet, tvg, and monpolizer hrtv |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I agree there's a limited amount you can say about a race with a 2-5 shot. I love at-home racing. I know that everybody loves to hate Magna, but TVG is a monpolizer, too. I have just about every medium for racing and a multitude of on-line and tellephone accounts, so I can watch and bet on virtually every race in the country without leaving my house. It beats driving a half hour to Laurel every day! |
| cnote: | Q: Does this look like a blowout ? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I can easily envision Smarty getting an uncontested lead if Purge takes back and winning by 10. |
| coblyn: | Q: What do you make of the notion floated that the Preakness was just a prep race for Rock Hard Ten....his real target has been the Belmont? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I don't know that it was consciously a prep, but the horse wasn't seasoned enough for the Preakness and he's got the experience now. But he still has to make up 11 1/2 lengths, and that's a lot of lengths. |
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| beyeronfire: | Q: Will the $10,000 in free 2 dollar win tickets given away at Hollywood park be counted in the win pool? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I guess so. There's going to be a giant amount of money bet on Smarty by souvenir hunters, so I wouldn't look for much value in the win pool. |
| not_an_expert: | Q: What has most impressed you about John Servis` training of Smarty Jones? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I was impressed that he uprooted his operation and took this horse to Arkansas for the winter; he was announcing, "I've got a Derby horse," and that's a pretty gutsy thing to do. He has seemed cool and unflappable and confident throughout the Triple Crown series, when so many people get rattled by the pressure. This has been a flawless performance so far. |
| Big_Red: | Q: Have you reworked your speed figure of 148 for Secretariat`s Belmont, and if so, what is it? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Several years ago I went back and tried to calculate it using our present scale, and my best guess was 139. Of course this is always a tricky race on which to do figs because there are so few 1 1/2 mile races, but I'll always believe that Secetariat's Belmont was the best single race of my lifetime. (I wasn't around for Count Fleet, whose numbers might have been bigger). |
| moeshearer: | Q: if smarty wins the triple crown where does he rank ob the list of all time great horses |
| ANDY_BEYER: | At this point, I'd say that he is a worthy member of the Triple Crown club. His 3-year-old races are at least as good as Seattle Slew's in my opinion. But to make a definitive judgment we'll have to see how he fares against the good older horses like Pleasantly Perfect and Medaglia d'Oro. |
| saratoga: | Q: why are you scared to admit purge is going to win are you keeping this to yourself to get better value on him? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | There's always a conspiracy theory, isn't there? |
| soreloser: | Q: will he bounce off that 118 beyer? or will he just dominate like a secrateriat? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I have a feeling that the 118 is a much better reflection of Smarty Jones' ability than his earlier, lower numbers. Servis has said he wasn't fully revved up earlier in the season in Arkansas, and our numbers may have been a little low for him, as I said earlier. The Derby was a crazy race after that monsoon, and nobody in the field ran their best. I think we may be seeing a lot of big figs from Smarty Jones in the future. |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Thanks, everybody, for joining us. Have a great Belmont day! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Belmont Stakes! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | If you arrived late, we will be posting a transcript of tonight's chat within the hour in the DRF.com Belmont Stakes section. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | BELMONT STAKES PAST PERFORMANCES: Belmont Stakes Day full card past performances are available now! See the promo on the DRF.com home page. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | NEW RELEASE: The American Racing Manual 2004 is on sale now in the DRF Press online bookstore. Look under "What's New @ DRF.com" on the DRF home page for details. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | ADVERTISEMENT: Bet on the Belmont Stakes at Youbet.com! Youbet.com - The Best of All! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | If you arrived late, we will be posting a transcript of tonight's chat within the hour in the DRF.com Belmont Stakes section. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | NEW RELEASE: Be sure to check out Brad Free's new book, Handicapping 101. It's on sale now online in the DRF Press bookstore. Click the promo to your right. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | In the words of the great Stanley Bergstein, good night all. |
