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Saturday, June 7 Belmont diary entry

The Belmont Stakes card is excellent and there should be all sorts of betting opportunities with once-a-year money fattening up the pools. There's a $1 million guaranteed Pick Six on races 6-11, a $500,000 guaranteed Pick Four on 8-11. What are we waiting for? Let's go to the races:

Race 1: This statebred N1x at seven furlongs appears to have two solid standouts to anchor the daily double. Acceptable Venture has run Beyers in the 80's in three of his six career starts and no one else has ever topped an 80. He was second in a $100k race at Turfway, has been freshened since a no-shot start in the Blue Grass, and comes into this off two five-furlong bullet works. The only conceivable upsetter is Rosie's Big Boy, turning back off three routes and a career-best figure of 80 in his last. For multihorse wagers (there are exactas and trifectas on all 13 today), both ends of the Beau's Fantasy/Promise Mountain entry are plausible, and turnback Glory Be To Winloc could get a minor award at a gigantic price. The bet-against has to be Jet Alert, 3-1 on the morning line off a weak-paced, weak-figure maiden victory.

Race 2: This open N1x on the grass is a grab bag of possibilities where the 10-furlong distance may prove the key. So could late scratches, as the two also-eligibles, Rayon and Morning's Image, both have a legit chance if they draw in. It would be a shame if either is excluded due to the entry of the horrifically overmatched Mighty Saviour, who routinely goes off at 80-1 at Suffolk Downs. Perhaps his owner-trainer wanted seats for Belmont Day.

Sheik Maktoum's Anasheed is the 3-1 morning-line favorite off two 10-furlong dirt races in Dubai, but he lost them by a combined 50 lengths. An interesting alternative at 8-1 on the line is Color Me Gone, who has a pair of closing thirds in grass stakes on courses with some give to them and switches from Coa to Day. Other plausible contenders are Dynaruler, who has weak final-time figures but strong finishes, and Jack's Own Time, a recent maiden winner with a long-winded pedigree.

Race 3: The Godolphon group again has the 3-1 morning-line favorite in this open N1x allowance at seven furlongs. Al Saqaar has a win and a second in Dubai but his Timeform Ratings (101 and 87) translate to Beyers that give him no edge in this field. This could be a good spot to fool around with some pricier possibilities, such as Private Enterprise, third off a layoff with the best back figures in the field; second-off-a-layoff Unbridled Dignity (15-1) and Marron Glace (10-1); and turnback blinkers-on Intelligent Male(10-1).

Race 4: This N2x allowance features a pair of stakes-bound 3-year-olds who should benefit from a stroing pace. Claiborne Farm's Congrats made a big impression winning his debut at Saratoga last summer and returned in the pink a month ago at Aqueduct. Inamorato was Godolphin's leading Derby hopeful and has been freshened since running third in the UAE Derby. Strong Hope and Striking Song look next best but may hook up early. Seattle Fitz ran a big figure in the mud behind onetime Belmont hopeful Colita but was no match for Inamorato in the desert.

Race 5: This $60k classified allowance at a mile and a sixteenth on the grass is loaded with stakes-winners whose handlers may have anticipated an easier race. Navesink, Union Place and Proud Man are all perfectly logical and Request for Parole is worth a look at 10-1.

Race 6: The newly-named Affirmed Stakes is the same $65k mile for non-stakes-winning fillies that used to be called the WNBC. It's also the first leg of the Pick Six and the diciest race in the sequence.

Half the field has been taking turns beating one another in allowance and restricted company and two fillies who have been facing much tougher may simply have a class edge: Alchemilla, who has been chasing Raging Fever and Nonesuch Bay, and Trekking, who just ran second on turf in the Grade 2 Santa Barbara. If you don't want to get knocked out by a filly who's won four in a row and beaten many of the others in here, also use Message Red.

Race 7: The Grade 2 True North for sprinters drew a small and motley crew featuring some vastly improved former claimers and the winner of the $2 million Dubai Golden Shaheen. Shake You Down has rattled off Beyers of 118, 118 and 113 since being haltered by Scott Lake. Those are supposed to be much faster than State City's Timeform of 117 winning the Shaheen but State City beat some pretty serious California speed in Avanzado and Captain Squire.

The question of the race is whether Giovanetti or Pioneer Boy can engage Shake You Down early, which would set things up for State City or Here's Zealous, who does better stalking than chasing loose speed, as he did against Shake You Down last time.

Race 8: The Grade 3 Just a Game at a mile on the grass drew a legitimate Grade 1 field through the presence of co-highweights Voodoo dancer, Wonder again and Riskaverse. If the course were firm, Voodoo Dancer would be a standout but given its likely sogginess, Clement may not even run her. He also entered Mariensky, seven days off a Sheepshead Bay runaway on a soft course but only one will run. Keep an eye on scratches.

Whichever one goes must be respected, and Wonder Again and Riskaverse seem to tower over the others. A small case could be made for Delta Princess at 12-1. She has improved each time she has stepped up a notch and is a head away from being 6 for 6 on the grass but she'll need to take another step forward today.

Race 9: The Grade 2 Riva Ridge for 3-year-olds at seven furlongs appears at the mercy of Midas Eyes, who is reportedly training the way he did before his sensational Swale. There's not much real early speed in here, and if he sets a comfortable pace, he's long gone. Posse was no match for him in the Swale but has since run two big figures making deep closing moves behind scorching paces. If such a scenario fails to develop, the right second horse could be Alysweep, cutting back off four longer races and coming off a brave second after a brutal pace duel in the Peter Pan.

Race 10: The Grade 1 Manhattan drew last year's top two American-based grass runners, With Anticipation and Denon. Both lost their season debuts but Denon ran a lot better finishing second in the Jim Murray than With Anticipation did finishing fifth in the Woodford Reserve. The first three finishers in that race are all back and it will be interesting to see if Honor In War's gaudy winning Beyer of 110 holds up. It's a bit of a stretch to believe that he, Requete and Patrol all ran new career-high figures in that race.

Shaanmer deserves a long look against them all. He ran just a 96 Beyer in his American debut last month but was only allowed to run at the end of that mile prep behind a moderate pace. He lost two photos in Grade 1 races in France last summer, and Europe's best are often better than America's best at 10 furlongs on yielding turf.

Race 11: The Belmont. I still like Empire Maker and I'll take him with Dynever and Ten Most Wanted in exactas. I have nothing against the likeable Funny Cide, but he's an underlay at 9-10 and doesn't really remind me of the truly great horses who have won the Triple Crown.

Race 12: Play Pick Threes and the final Pick Four through this race with extreme caution. Post time is 7:22 and this seven-furlong turf race could well be washed onto the main track if the expected storms are in full force by now. If it stays on grass, Music's Storm and Union One are the best of the statesiders while the uncoupled Maktoum runners Tough Speed and Millenium Draqgon both have been competitive in minor graded stakes overseas. On dirt, second-off-a-layoff No Parole and main-track-only Clergy will be in good shape.

Race 13: If you're still trying to get even at 7:52 p.m., maybe there's an opportunity here: The 3-1 morning-line favorite, Miesques Testimony, appears to be just about the slowest horse in the race. She's Zealous (9-2) ran a superior race winning her debut and Hope for Love (8-1) and Electrick City exit a strong race.

Enjoy.

Triple Crown
Steven Crist
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