Kentucky Derby picks and analysis from Daily Racing Form handicappers across the United States.
Mike Beer
1. Disarm
2. Tapit Trice
3. Hit Show
In this series DRF handicapper/linemaker David Aragona provides his opinion of what constitutes fair win value for each runner in a weekend stakes race. The goal of this series is to bypass standard ordinal selections, instead developing price-based opinions around every horse in the field for the purpose of informing sound wagering decisions.
Update at 11:30 AM: This piece has been updated to account for the recent scratch of Forte, as well as the previously announced scratches of Practical Move, Lord Miles, Continuar, and Skinner.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – After a seemingly quiet fortnight, the Kentucky Derby field underwent significant changes over the 48 hours leading up to the race.
Four of the original 23 horses entered have been scratched – Practical Move, Lord Miles, Continuar, and Skinner – and questions began to surface Thursday about the status of favored Forte.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – In the last two years, horses based in Japan have captured some of the biggest international prizes in Thoroughbred racing.
In 2021, at Del Mar, there were victories by March Lorraine and Loves Only You in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and Filly and Mare Turf, respectively. This year, Panthalassa led a 1-3-4-5 finish by Japan horses in the $20 million Saudi Cup. Ushba Tesoro won the $12 million Dubai World Cup and Equinox was devastating winning the $6 million Dubai Sheema Classic.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - When Forte had his final gallop Friday morning for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, he was wearing a three-quarter shoe on his right front foot. A piece of the shoe was cut off at the upper part of the inside heel.
“Take a little pressure off the heel,” trainer Todd Pletcher said. “Something we commonly do.”
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Skinner, the third-place finisher in the Santa Anita Derby, has been scratched from the Kentucky Derby due to an elevated temperature, according to the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission.
Skinner became the fourth horse to scratch from the Derby in 24 hours, joining Practical Move, Lord Miles, and Continuar.
The Derby will be run, for now, with 19 horses.
According to the Churchill Downs media department, the last time four horses scratched from the Kentucky Derby was in 2015 when 22 horses were entered.
This story will be updated.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. _ Continuar will be scratched from Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, it was announced Thursday night by his connections.
In a statement put out by Churchill Downs, Yoshito Yahagi, the trainer of Continuar, said that he was not happy with the colt’s fitness level.
Churchill Downs has banned the trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. for an “indefinite period,” citing the sudden deaths of two of his horses over the past five days at the track.
The announcement of the decision to ban Joseph came 30 minutes after Kentucky stewards said that Joseph had agreed to scratch all of the horses he had entered at Churchill, including Lord Miles, who was entered in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.
Churchill Downs
Thursday, May 4
Weather: Sunny
Temperature: 43
Track: Fast
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – A busy and very eventful morning on the Kentucky Derby/Oaks watch Thursday at Churchill Downs with arguably the most impressive training session of the morning saved for last when Skinner came out at his usual time, shortly after 9:00 a.m., to turn in an eye-catching gallop over the freshly harrowed strip.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Practical Move, winner of the Santa Anita Derby and a major player in the Kentucky Derby, will have to scratch out of the race due to a temperature, trainer Tim Yakteen said Thursday afternoon.
“We spiked a temperature,” Yakteen said. “It started climbing right after training when we do our due diligence. He didn’t jump into the feed tub like he usually does. We temp our horses routinely, that’s when it was recognized.”